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ForsbergTheGreat

The Goaltending Market (long read)

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Good piece. Very thorough and well thought out.

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I actually think Detroit would LOVE to have Schneider.

The fact that they have never RELIED on their goalie to win the Cup doesn't mean they want to have crap goaltending.

Aside from Osgood, the guys that got them to the promised land in recent years were Mike Vernon and Dominik Hasek, both of whom will be in the Hall of Fame when all is said and done.

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I actually think Detroit would LOVE to have Schneider.

The fact that they have never RELIED on their goalie to win the Cup doesn't mean they want to have crap goaltending.

Aside from Osgood, the guys that got them to the promised land in recent years were Mike Vernon and Dominik Hasek, both of whom will be in the Hall of Fame when all is said and done.

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Teams in the potentially in the Goalie market:

Only 4 of a potential 29

FLA & TB are two sunshine state teams that are in the market for goalies. It would make sense for them to be interest in a goalie like Luongo who will give the team 4-6 to develop their young emerging goalies. Schneider doesn’t quite fit the bill as he would provide long term goaltending stability and it wouldn’t allow the teams to develop their top goalie prospects. Both teams have the expendable assets needed to acquire a goalie like Luongo, whether they are willing to part with them or not is a different story.

NYI & NJ are two teams looking to find stable gaoling for years to come. Bernier is a great option for a team like NJ as he is young, cheap, lot of potential and will get a year of playing along one of the greatest goalies. If NJ doesn’t decide to get the young cost efficient goalie don’t look for them to be in the market until after Brodeur contract comes off the books. Then I could see them going after a goalie like Schneider.

NYI are in no rush this year with four goalies on their rosters. When the summer hits they may be the best option for Schneider to go providing the give up the right assets, starting with Niederreiter.

My Opinion:

As it is clearly laid out, there is no goal tending market. Vancouver has two great assets, in our minds; the only problem is there is no market for these assets. Basic supply and demand, the fact that the supply for goalies is high in the NHL, it drives the price of our goalies way down. As good as they are teams are not desperate enough to pay the current asking price. People can say all they want that Schneider will get more of a return but it doesn’t matter when no teams are interested. The price for a goalie is set by demand and not so much on the skill set. If it was a wide open market with teams bidding on goalies, Schneider would get a much better return due to his age and cap hit. When the price is low on both goalies due to the demand, like they are this year, then it is a clear and easy decision as to which goalie will be moved.

Gillis will need to lower his asking price and move Luongo for future assets. It would be nice to get the 3P’s but the market has spoken and we will not get that return, not at least this year. If we could move Luongo for prospects and picks it will free up much needed cap space for us. We can then attempt to acquire a roster player in the summer, via trade or free agencies. This way the team has stable goal-tending for years to come and future parts to build around.

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Possibly Detroit could be interested although in my mind Howard is a decent goalie as well. He's only 28 and plays solid most nights. His stats this year are pretty good and he comes with a low cap hit. Would Detroit be willing to give up the VAN asking price? I don't know

Markstrom just got pulled after 3 mins. FLA in my mind is the best option, bring Luongo in and don't destroy the kids' confidence. Work him into the system just like we did with Schneider

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Well thought out and stated. I agree with you on NYI, TB, and Florida as three of the options. I would take NJ off until after next season. I think Toronto still may be tempted in the offseason. And Columbus should be on the list, although you do make a point of Schneiders contract ending when the young players are rounding into form.

I could see Lou waiving his NTC for TB, Florida and possibly Toronto. Obviously Schneider doesn't have a NTC.

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Fantastic post. The simple fact of the matter is that it is abundently clear that GM MG will not get anywhere close to his asking price for either Schneider or Luongo. And I can't see a deal getting easier after the season when the cap decreases $6 mm.

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Fantastic post. The simple fact of the matter is that it is abundently clear that GM MG will not get anywhere close to his asking price for either Schneider or Luongo. And I can't see a deal getting easier after the season when the cap decreases $6 mm.

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Excellent analysis. I do think we should consider NYI as a possible destination though.

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Luongo's NTC and contract pretty much eliminates most teams

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yea I think the goalie soap opera is done till July 1st. Florida is the #1 fit still just not at MG's asking price.

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Well thought out post.

While the need for a goalie in order to win/fit into your long term plans is paramount for a team, since these are businesses too, there are other factors in play. If you look at a team like Florida, bringing in Luongo, (I'm assuming) a well known name in the area could draw fans to the game, purely from a marketing perspective. To a team like that, this is just as important as winning.

From a financial perspective you could look at a team like the Islanders, who have been bleeding money due to (among other things) crazy contracts (*ahem* Dipietro), to them getting rid of a large contract and saving money is just as important in the short term as winning. Though we do know Gilllis is loathe to bring on a contract in return, the Aquilinis might be willing to spend more money than some teams, if it means a chance at a cup.

Those are two examples, but I'm sure if you looked at other teams from a financial and marketing perspective the goaltending market might be slightly different than from purely a 'will this help my team win right now' kind of perspective.

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