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The Goaltending Market (long read)


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#1 ForsbergTheGreat

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 04:37 PM

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The Goaltending Market in the NHL

Here is my complete breakdown of the goalie market in the NHL. You may not agree with everything or anything I say, so please feel free to comment and let me know what you think. I apologize in advance for any grammar/ spelling mistakes.

Gillis has made it clear what he wanted for Luongo. The 3 P’s, a player, a prospect and a pick. He obviously hasn’t received this as of yet. Will there be a team that will offer more for Schneider? Even though Schneider’s contract is more movable it doesn’t necessarily mean there is more of a market for him. I wanted to look at the goaltending market to see what is available and what the team’s options are in moving either goalie.

One important thing to remember is Luongo or Schneider may be an upgrade to the team’s current goaltender but that doesn’t mean they are an ideal trading partner. Unless the teams’ current goalie is part of the trade or moved prior, then that particular team will not be acquiring Luongo or Schneider.


CENTRAL
Chicago
Crawford/Emery
The team is yet to lose in Regulation this year. Crawford and Emery have both played great. No need for a Luongo or Schneider.

Detroit
Howard
Howard has played well for Detroit year after year. Detroit is still hurting from losing one of the game’s best defensemen. Detroit has never relied on their goalie carrying them to the cup and I don’t see them changing this style anytime soon. DET is not in the market for a goalie.

St. Louis
Halak/Elliott
The Blue currently have two solid goalies in Halak and Elliott. Halak with a cap hit of 3.75 million prevents this team from attempting to upgrade this position. Unless Halak is moved prior the Blue are not in the market for a goalie

Nashville
Rinnie
No need to even consider NSH as they already have one of the best goalies in the league.

Columbus
Bobrovsky/Mason
Rumors appeared around last year’s trade deadline that CBJ may be interested in goaltender Cory Schneider and Vancouver was in on the Nash sweepstakes. Then the draft came and went just like Nash, as he found a new home with the New York Rangers. Columbus then went a picked up Bobrovsky and the goalie rumors stopped…Until now. With the Blue Jackets struggling this year and a strong pool of young prospects they seem like a great trading partner for Vancouver, but are they? Luongo would not waive his NTC to head to a last place team with no playoff contention in their near future. Cross out Luongo. Schneider at 26 and less money looks must more appealing to a team like CBJ, but what would CBJ give up to get a guy like Schneider. The answer, very little.

CBJ has 3 first round draft picks this year is going to be a rebuild team. They will not be a playoff contention team in 3 years by the time Cory’s contract is up. It makes no sense for them to trade away future parts for a goalie that can help a team now and will have to resign for more money in a few years. They'd be better off trading for or drafting a goalie prospect to develop with the rest of their team and giving up less in doing so. If your CBJ why give up future assets that can be key contributors for success for a goalie you don't really need right now. Why not trade for a Bernier or even Lack/ Cantana for a much less asking price and keep your top prospects? Last year’s speculation before at around the trade deadline is a distant memory. Not just players have changed but Davidson has taken charge, hired a new GM in Jarmo Kekalainen and the team a new direction (rebuilding). Jarmo Kekalainen was Davidson's old head scout in STL building around this year’s draft is the way the team will head. I guess we will have to see what happens; CBJ isn't in the market for Schneider or Luongo. Not for the VAN asking price.

PACIFIC
Anaheim
Hiller/Fasth
With the emergence of Fasth Anaheim looks like they will have solid goaltending for years to come. The ducks just gave Fasth a two year extension worth 5.8 million. Duck next year will have 6.9 million in goaltending. Anaheim is not in the market for a goalie.

Los Angeles
Quick/Bernier
No need to even consider LA. Quick last year’s conn smythe winner. Bernier hurts the market for Schneider as he is only 24 and brings a lot of upside. Not quite the experience but would come with a way less asking price.

San Jose
Niemi
He has already proven he can win a cup. Luongo or Schneider may be an upgrade to Niemi according to who you talk to but what would SJ be willing to give up acquiring him. Niemi would have to be moved before in order for this to happen that won’t likely happen. SJ is not in the goalie market.

Phoenix
Smith
Smith is a top end goalie in the league. He carried PHX on in back last year’s playoffs, not in the goalie market.

Dallas
Lehtonen
Lehtonen has gotten better every year he has been with the Stars. Starting as of next year he will receive a big time raise paying him almost 30 million over the next five years and a cap hit of 5.9 million. This prevents them from being in the goalie market.

NORTHWEST
Minnesota
Backstrom
Backstrom has had on and of games this year. He has a cap hit of 6 million per year and will not likely be moved. Minnesota is division rival who Vancouver will not be trading with.

Calgary
KIprusoff
KIprusoff has been everything Calgary could ask of him and more. Calgary is a team that doesn’t need help in the goalie department. When it comes to who takes the reigns after Kipper Calgary has their own 26 year old they feel will take the number 1 spot. Ramo who has been waiting for his opportunity will likely get a shot before Calgary makes any goalie trade. Calgary is division rival who Vancouver will not be trading with.

Edmonton
Dubnyk
Drafted 12 positions higher than our own Cory Schneider in 2004. Dubnyk has shown at times he is capable of being a number 1 goalie. Edmonton has problems with their team not realizing you have to show up every game in order to be successful. Edmonton is division rival who Vancouver will not be trading with.

Colorado
Varlarmov
Varlarmov is a goalie Colorado gave up Tom Wilson for. Has talent and is a decent number 1. They could use an upgrade but not at any price worth giving up their youth. Colorado is Division Rival who Canucks will not be trading with.


NORTHEAST
Montreal
Price
Price a young goalie with unlimited potential. Just got signed up long term and will be the main backbone of this team for years to come. Montreal is not in the goalie market.


Boston
Rask
Rask has taken over since Thomas and he has play lights out. 2.04GAA and a .923 SV%. He’s young and a will only get better as he gets more comfortable being relied on night in and night out. They also have a prospect in Subban they could turn out to one day be a very good goaltender. He could be held as trade bait, but I would think until he’s at least played a few NHL games. Boston is not in the market for a goalie.

Toronto
Scrivens/Reimer
A team desperate to make the playoffs, Toronto looked like the perfect match to acquire a goalie to bring them to their first playoff since before the last lockout. The summer went by and it didn’t happen. The lockout happened and it still didn’t happen. Now half way through the season Toronto appears to be playoff bound only needed to finish the season off with a 10-10-4 to clinch, and they’ve done it without Luongo. They is no reason for Toronto to attempt of upgrading their goalies at the cost of their future. As their prospects start entering their line up the team should only get better. Toronto is not in the market anymore.

Ottawa
Anderson
At the half way point in the season Anderson leads the way in goals against average and save percentage. He has been Ottawa’s best player. Ottawa is not in the market for a goalie.

Buffalo
Miller
Miller hasn’t been the same since Lucic ran him over. As much as Luongo or Schneider could help the team BUF is stuck with the 6.25 cap hit of Miller. This prevents them from being in the goalie market.

ATLANTIC
Pittsburgh
Fluery
Luongo or Schneider may or may not be an upgrade to the inconsistent Marc Andre Fluery but what would they be willing to give up acquiring him. Not a lot. Fluery would have to be moved before in order for this to happen and as we can see already, the goalie market isn’t a hot buy. PITS is not in the goalie market.

New Jersey
Brodeur
Brodeur, the game’s greatest goalie is at the end of his career. They are one team that could be in the market of looking for a goalie. Luongo’s contract is another large hit that New Jersey would want any part of. Schneider’s on the other had may be the perfect fit. He’s young and good enough to be a solid number 1 in the league right now. One hiccup from putting NJ in the market for a goalie is Brodeur has one more year left on his contract where he earns 5 million. NJ is a team that is tight on money and that will prevent them from acquiring a goalie like Schneider, this year.

NY Rangers
Lundqvist
No need to even consider NYR as they already have one of the best goalies in the league.

Philadelphia
Bryzgalov
For some reason people think this goalie is a poor performer. He is a bit strange but his stat show that he can play. When comparing his numbers over his last 5 years they compare to that of Roberto Luongo. Huge contract and is not likely to be moved. PHI is not in the market for a goalie.

NY Islanders
Nabokov
Islanders are one team that. They fit the market for looking to a young emerging number one goalie like Schneider but at the same time they have a ton of cap tied up in their 3 goalies. After this year Nabokov and Thomas come off the books and unless one of them is moved prior the deadline NYI will not be interested in aqcuring a goalie, as of yet. By the time the draft hits the Islanders will be in full force looking for the next goalie of their future. (Depending on what they feel will come out of Dipietro) They have a lot of youth and a superstar in Tavares that will make this team a contender a few years. They also have the assets to give up to acquire a goalie.

SOUTHEAST
Carolina
Ward
Cam Ward is out for the year. Does this mean they are in the market for a new number 1 goalie? Absolutely not. If Carolina is looking for a goalie it would be a temporary position to hold the fort until Ward returns next season. Perhaps they look at acquiring an older veteran with 1 year left on his contract that comes at a fairly cheap cost. Perhaps they role with Justin Peters who has been having a great in the AHL. Depending on what happens between now and trade deadline if CAR is desperate enough their couple of experienced goalies in NYI that they may want to look at heading into playoffs.

Winnipeg
Pavelec
Like the Penguins, Luongo or Scnheider may be an upgrade to Pavelec but at what cost? Pavelec would have to be moved before in order for this to happen and he would not create a great return. Would Luongo or Schneider value be so great that they’d lose the 3 P’s and a goalie? Unless Pavelec is part of the VAN trade (which VAN has no use for) WPG is not in the market for a goalie.

Tampa Bay
Lindback
After a hot start to the year, Tampa has struggled to find its game. Their new number 1 Lindback may be in over his head and has struggled like the team. GM Steve Yzerman has made is clear that Tampa is not interested in taking on a contract like Luongo but the pressures of losing may change that idea. The lightning does how ever have a top goalie prospect named Vasilevski that will someday make his mark. It may be the right place for Luongo to come in and take Vasilevski under his wing like he’s done with another goalie we all know.

Washington
Holtby/Neuvirth
After a very poor start to the season, WSH look like they were the team destined to pick up a goalie. Although goaltending wasn’t the only issue for the teams struggles, but it sure put the spotlight on the team when Gillis was spotted at the caps games. Shortly after however Holtby received and two year for a total of 3.7mil and this sparked the confidence of the young goalie and he’s been on a tear since. It would make no sense for WSH to make a splash now and obtain a goalie. Not when Holtby is playing to what they feel his potential is and not for what the asking price of the VAN goalies.

Florida
Markstrom
Florida has hit a major road bump this year after taking the Devils to game seven in the first round. They have a young goalie in Markstrom, 22, that is meant to be the team’s future. Again like the Tampa situation it would be ideal for Luongo to come in and mentor the Young goalie for 4 years to become the teams goalie of the future rather than throwing him in the lion’s den like the have had to do this year.


Teams in the potentially in the Goalie market:

Only 4 of a potential 29
FLA & TB are two sunshine state teams that are in the market for goalies. It would make sense for them to be interest in a goalie like Luongo who will give the team 4-6 to develop their young emerging goalies. Schneider doesn’t quite fit the bill as he would provide long term goaltending stability and it wouldn’t allow the teams to develop their top goalie prospects. Both teams have the expendable assets needed to acquire a goalie like Luongo, whether they are willing to part with them or not is a different story.

NYI & NJ are two teams looking to find stable gaoling for years to come. Bernier is a great option for a team like NJ as he is young, cheap, lot of potential and will get a year of playing along one of the greatest goalies. If NJ doesn’t decide to get the young cost efficient goalie don’t look for them to be in the market until after Brodeur contract comes off the books. Then I could see them going after a goalie like Schneider.
NYI are in no rush this year with four goalies on their rosters. When the summer hits they may be the best option for Schneider to go providing the give up the right assets, starting with Niederreiter.


My Opinion:

As it is clearly laid out, there is no goal tending market. Vancouver has two great assets, in our minds; the only problem is there is no market for these assets. Basic supply and demand, the fact that the supply for goalies is high in the NHL, it drives the price of our goalies way down. As good as they are teams are not desperate enough to pay the current asking price. People can say all they want that Schneider will get more of a return but it doesn’t matter when no teams are interested. The price for a goalie is set by demand and not so much on the skill set. If it was a wide open market with teams bidding on goalies, Schneider would get a much better return due to his age and cap hit. When the price is low on both goalies due to the demand, like they are this year, then it is a clear and easy decision as to which goalie will be moved.

Gillis will need to lower his asking price and move Luongo for future assets. It would be nice to get the 3P’s but the market has spoken and we will not get that return, not at least this year. If we could move Luongo for prospects and picks it will free up much needed cap space for us. We can then attempt to acquire a roster player in the summer, via trade or free agencies. This way the team has stable goal-tending for years to come and future parts to build around.

Edited by ForsbergTheGreat, 07 March 2013 - 04:39 PM.

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#2 Tom Sestito

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 04:44 PM

interdasting
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Thank you VC!

#3 L'Orange

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 04:45 PM

Good piece. Very thorough and well thought out.
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#4 Kevin Biestra

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 04:49 PM

I actually think Detroit would LOVE to have Schneider.

The fact that they have never RELIED on their goalie to win the Cup doesn't mean they want to have crap goaltending.

Aside from Osgood, the guys that got them to the promised land in recent years were Mike Vernon and Dominik Hasek, both of whom will be in the Hall of Fame when all is said and done.

Edited by Kevin Biestra, 07 March 2013 - 04:50 PM.

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Biestra speaks. Biestra educates.

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#5 ForsbergTheGreat

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 05:12 PM

I actually think Detroit would LOVE to have Schneider.

The fact that they have never RELIED on their goalie to win the Cup doesn't mean they want to have crap goaltending.

Aside from Osgood, the guys that got them to the promised land in recent years were Mike Vernon and Dominik Hasek, both of whom will be in the Hall of Fame when all is said and done.


Possibly Detroit could be interested although in my mind Howard is a decent goalie as well. He's only 28 and plays solid most nights. His stats this year are pretty good and he comes with a low cap hit. Would Detroit be willing to give up the VAN asking price? I don't know

Markstrom just got pulled after 3 mins. FLA in my mind is the best option, bring Luongo in and don't destroy the kids' confidence. Work him into the system just like we did with Schneider

Edited by ForsbergTheGreat, 07 March 2013 - 05:16 PM.

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#6 RockNroLLa.

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 05:51 PM

Teams in the potentially in the Goalie market:

Only 4 of a potential 29
FLA & TB are two sunshine state teams that are in the market for goalies. It would make sense for them to be interest in a goalie like Luongo who will give the team 4-6 to develop their young emerging goalies. Schneider doesn’t quite fit the bill as he would provide long term goaltending stability and it wouldn’t allow the teams to develop their top goalie prospects. Both teams have the expendable assets needed to acquire a goalie like Luongo, whether they are willing to part with them or not is a different story.

NYI & NJ are two teams looking to find stable gaoling for years to come. Bernier is a great option for a team like NJ as he is young, cheap, lot of potential and will get a year of playing along one of the greatest goalies. If NJ doesn’t decide to get the young cost efficient goalie don’t look for them to be in the market until after Brodeur contract comes off the books. Then I could see them going after a goalie like Schneider.
NYI are in no rush this year with four goalies on their rosters. When the summer hits they may be the best option for Schneider to go providing the give up the right assets, starting with Niederreiter.


My Opinion:

As it is clearly laid out, there is no goal tending market. Vancouver has two great assets, in our minds; the only problem is there is no market for these assets. Basic supply and demand, the fact that the supply for goalies is high in the NHL, it drives the price of our goalies way down. As good as they are teams are not desperate enough to pay the current asking price. People can say all they want that Schneider will get more of a return but it doesn’t matter when no teams are interested. The price for a goalie is set by demand and not so much on the skill set. If it was a wide open market with teams bidding on goalies, Schneider would get a much better return due to his age and cap hit. When the price is low on both goalies due to the demand, like they are this year, then it is a clear and easy decision as to which goalie will be moved.

Gillis will need to lower his asking price and move Luongo for future assets. It would be nice to get the 3P’s but the market has spoken and we will not get that return, not at least this year. If we could move Luongo for prospects and picks it will free up much needed cap space for us. We can then attempt to acquire a roster player in the summer, via trade or free agencies. This way the team has stable goal-tending for years to come and future parts to build around.


Agree with all this. but of the 4 teams you have, I didnt have NJD on my list of 4 teams but Columbus instead.
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#7 Boudrias

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 05:52 PM

Possibly Detroit could be interested although in my mind Howard is a decent goalie as well. He's only 28 and plays solid most nights. His stats this year are pretty good and he comes with a low cap hit. Would Detroit be willing to give up the VAN asking price? I don't know

Markstrom just got pulled after 3 mins. FLA in my mind is the best option, bring Luongo in and don't destroy the kids' confidence. Work him into the system just like we did with Schneider

Possibly Detroit could be interested although in my mind Howard is a decent goalie as well. He's only 28 and plays solid most nights. His stats this year are pretty good and he comes with a low cap hit. Would Detroit be willing to give up the VAN asking price? I don't know

Markstrom just got pulled after 3 mins. FLA in my mind is the best option, bring Luongo in and don't destroy the kids' confidence. Work him into the system just like we did with Schneider

I don't agree with your assumption that young teams are better off drafting a goaltender rather than trading for Lou or Schneider. A draft is simply that the gurantee is not there. Trading for a developed goalie eliminates the risk of spending a lot of development time on a prospect who might not cut it as a #1.

I agree that detroit might be interested but they have a lot of needs in their org.
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#8 underrated

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 08:04 PM

Well thought out and stated. I agree with you on NYI, TB, and Florida as three of the options. I would take NJ off until after next season. I think Toronto still may be tempted in the offseason. And Columbus should be on the list, although you do make a point of Schneiders contract ending when the young players are rounding into form.

I could see Lou waiving his NTC for TB, Florida and possibly Toronto. Obviously Schneider doesn't have a NTC.

Edited by underrated, 07 March 2013 - 08:06 PM.

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#9 Wwmcanuck

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 08:10 PM

Fantastic post. The simple fact of the matter is that it is abundently clear that GM MG will not get anywhere close to his asking price for either Schneider or Luongo. And I can't see a deal getting easier after the season when the cap decreases $6 mm.
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#10 sampy

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:09 PM

Fantastic post. The simple fact of the matter is that it is abundently clear that GM MG will not get anywhere close to his asking price for either Schneider or Luongo. And I can't see a deal getting easier after the season when the cap decreases $6 mm.


Agreed. The cap goes down and there are more and cheaper goalie options for teams interested in the summer. IMO, Scheider and Lu would play better if they could get a starting role. The team obviously has some deficiencies, pull the trigger MG.
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#11 ghjffbali

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:41 PM

Excellent analysis. I do think we should consider NYI as a possible destination though.
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#12 shazzam

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:57 PM

Luongo's NTC and contract pretty much eliminates most teams
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#13 darthryan

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 10:09 PM

yea I think the goalie soap opera is done till July 1st. Florida is the #1 fit still just not at MG's asking price.
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#14 We Are All Cucks

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 10:13 PM

Well thought out post.

While the need for a goalie in order to win/fit into your long term plans is paramount for a team, since these are businesses too, there are other factors in play. If you look at a team like Florida, bringing in Luongo, (I'm assuming) a well known name in the area could draw fans to the game, purely from a marketing perspective. To a team like that, this is just as important as winning.
From a financial perspective you could look at a team like the Islanders, who have been bleeding money due to (among other things) crazy contracts (*ahem* Dipietro), to them getting rid of a large contract and saving money is just as important in the short term as winning. Though we do know Gilllis is loathe to bring on a contract in return, the Aquilinis might be willing to spend more money than some teams, if it means a chance at a cup.

Those are two examples, but I'm sure if you looked at other teams from a financial and marketing perspective the goaltending market might be slightly different than from purely a 'will this help my team win right now' kind of perspective.
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