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Reality Check


westvandude

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Background: (Skip to "Main Point" if you don't like reading long messages)

I've been a die-hard Canucks fan for the past 10 years, feeling the euphoria of the wins and depression of the losses. And back in 2010/2011 season, I still believed in fate and destiny and other superstitious crap like that, and thought everything was meant to be for the Canucks... the way they won the President's Trophy and the way they beat the Hawks, the way EA Sports had predicted a Canucks SC win in 7 games against the Bruins... and again, same feelings came back the next year after winning the PT again... maybe it's meant to be a Wings vs. Pens type of back to back SCF for Nucks and Bruins. But nope! An undeserving (from their regular season) Kings get hot and sweep everybody.

This and some other more important personal life events, made me realize the reality of things. There is no "meant to be" or "fate" or "destiny" or "karma". That's just what people say when they want to feel good about something. The reality is, the world works with some preset set of rules and statistical odds. All you can do is do the right things to increase your odds of getting what you want. You can NEVER have full control or certainty.

This isn't a pessimistic view at all. I personally feel a lot better about life in general, and in this case, the Canucks, because I don't have overblown expectations, and can view it as it is. The Canucks are just 1 team out of 30, and over the long haul, they have 1/30 chance of winning it.

Main Point:

With the way the regular season is set up, and what is celebrated as success in North America, I don't care much about what we do in the regular season anymore as long as we make the playoffs. And if we don't, then we simply weren't good enough to win the cup (which is the only thing that important in North American sports). All that is important is for the team to be good enough, get close to their potential at the right time which is the end of the season ("get hot"), and not have any major injuries.

Your playoffs standing doesn't matter for sht. I've looked at the past 3-5 years of nhl playoffs, and the home team has won basically 50% of the time, which in my view completely nullifies the home-ice advantage (as opposed to in MLB where it's closer to 57% or NBA where it's about 66%).

My main point is, from the fan point of view where we have no control over the team's actions, all we gotta do is not worry too much about what happens in regular season. If any of you are like the old me where we'd get depressed after a losing streak or get all overexcited after a winning streak, it's a good reality check to think of the regular season as just a glorified pre-season for the playoffs.

I still spend a lot of my time reading about and discussing the team, but only for fun. I'm not gonna leave my personal happiness depending on something I have zero control over. And don't get me wrong, I'll be in ecstasy if they do win the cup, but it won't affect me like it did in 2011 SCF.

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Though the specific standings once making the playoffs might not mean as much as they used to, if the team isn't playing well and missing pieces, they aren't going far in the playoffs. It appears that this is the case with the Canucks. If they continue to play they way they are with this roster, even if they make the playoffs (and I still think they will), they can't suddenly "become" a great team at will. Yes, teams get hot or peak at the playoffs, but you need the right people and there are serious concerns there for me.

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Bingo.

I've found it amusing how so many people last season were posting about not bothering trying for the President's Trophy, it's a waste of time, just concentrate on the playoffs, etc. Now that the team seems to be taking the regular season less seriously, the sky is falling.

As long as they get their act together as t he playoffs approach, that's all that matters. When the Canucks finally win the Stanley Cup, will we even care if they did it from 1st place, 3rd place or 8th place? No.

With parity these days, it hardly matters whether you are the 1st place team facing the 8th place team or the 6th place team facing the 3rd place team. Every team that makes the playoffs is going to be a tough competitor.

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I was thinking about the op's comments on the home rink advantage in the playoffs not meaning much which takes away a bit of the importance of finishing higher in the standings during the regular season.

One thing I think the NHL should consider is changing the advantage. The top-seeded team gets the first 3 games at home, the next 3 away and then the 7th at home. Then it is also about creating playoff revenue for your team as well as home rink advantage in terms of line changes etc.

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Bingo.

I've found it amusing how so many people last season were posting about not bothering trying for the President's Trophy, it's a waste of time, just concentrate on the playoffs, etc. Now that the team seems to be taking the regular season less seriously, the sky is falling.

As long as they get their act together as t he playoffs approach, that's all that matters. When the Canucks finally win the Stanley Cup, will we even care if they did it from 1st place, 3rd place or 8th place? No.

With parity these days, it hardly matters whether you are the 1st place team facing the 8th place team or the 6th place team facing the 3rd place team. Every team that makes the playoffs is going to be a tough competitor.

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I was thinking about the op's comments on the home rink advantage in the playoffs not meaning much which takes away a bit of the importance of finishing higher in the standings during the regular season.

One thing I think the NHL should consider is changing the advantage. The top-seeded team gets the first 3 games at home, the next 3 away and then the 7th at home. Then it is also about creating playoff revenue for your team as well as home rink advantage in terms of line changes etc.

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Yes LA won last year as an 8th seed, but if you look at the last few decades it's almost always one of the top 4 seeds in the conference that win. Being good for all those regular season games shows a much higher likelihood that those are quality teams. While home ice may not be the payoff it should be it doesn't take away from the quality of those teams.

When you look at seeds 5-8 sure they win a lot of individual series, but how often do they win 4 Series in a row to win the cup? Not very much.

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It depends on how you look at it. At the time of the playoffs, yes they were better than their record shows. But the whole point of a record is to show a team's greatness OVER A SET amount of time, not just at a single point of time.

Also, a large chuck of their record was produced prior to the trade deadline, which is another issue with this system. Basically you're just hoping that the teams that are giving up on their season and giving away good players for draft picks, aren't trading with your opponents and are trading with you instead. That also makes this system more unfair and unpredictable, and hence less worthy of emotional investment!

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Some stats:

14-7-3 (31/48 points [0.646]) to start 2010-11

15-6-2 (32/46 points [0.696]) Jan 19 - March 11 2011

12-11-1 (25/48 points [0.521]) to start 2011-12

14-4-4 (32/44 points [0.727]) Jan 19 - March 11 2012 (post Stanley Cup game 8 in Boston in January 2012, we went 15-4-5 (35/48 [0.729]), interestingly)

11-7-6 (28/48 points [0.583]) so far this season.

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Agreed - mostly with LA though, you could see that they were clearly getting better and better as the season went on. The first half's result brought down their points total, thus their place in the standings. If they were up and down over the whole season, it would be much more like you say (a good measure over a longer period).

Either way, most 8th seeds really don't have much of a hope in the playoffs.

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Like how people are saying "LA won the Cup as an 8th seed, it's good that we won't be winning the PT this year", or insisting that we fire AV because after Pittsburgh and LA fired their coach they won (though I think tossing AV has more reason now).

People like to look into these sort of things and put spins of destiny on it...just got to hope the team puts it together, or a better team is put together itself.

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I heard someone on tv suggest this playoff format once. Seemed kind of interesting.

Let the #1 seed choose who they want to play out of the 7 lower seeds.

Then the 2nd seed picks next and so on.

Would certainly make for interesting story lines about teams ducking other teams. Especially when you have to face them in later rounds.

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