Jump to content

Welcome to canucks.com Vancouver Canucks homepage

Photo
* - - - - 1 votes

Reality Check


  • Please log in to reply
25 replies to this topic

#1 westvandude

westvandude

    Comets Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 165 posts
  • Joined: 23-May 11

Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:38 AM

Background: (Skip to "Main Point" if you don't like reading long messages)
I've been a die-hard Canucks fan for the past 10 years, feeling the euphoria of the wins and depression of the losses. And back in 2010/2011 season, I still believed in fate and destiny and other superstitious crap like that, and thought everything was meant to be for the Canucks... the way they won the President's Trophy and the way they beat the Hawks, the way EA Sports had predicted a Canucks SC win in 7 games against the Bruins... and again, same feelings came back the next year after winning the PT again... maybe it's meant to be a Wings vs. Pens type of back to back SCF for Nucks and Bruins. But nope! An undeserving (from their regular season) Kings get hot and sweep everybody.

This and some other more important personal life events, made me realize the reality of things. There is no "meant to be" or "fate" or "destiny" or "karma". That's just what people say when they want to feel good about something. The reality is, the world works with some preset set of rules and statistical odds. All you can do is do the right things to increase your odds of getting what you want. You can NEVER have full control or certainty.

This isn't a pessimistic view at all. I personally feel a lot better about life in general, and in this case, the Canucks, because I don't have overblown expectations, and can view it as it is. The Canucks are just 1 team out of 30, and over the long haul, they have 1/30 chance of winning it.


Main Point:
With the way the regular season is set up, and what is celebrated as success in North America, I don't care much about what we do in the regular season anymore as long as we make the playoffs. And if we don't, then we simply weren't good enough to win the cup (which is the only thing that important in North American sports). All that is important is for the team to be good enough, get close to their potential at the right time which is the end of the season ("get hot"), and not have any major injuries.

Your playoffs standing doesn't matter for sht. I've looked at the past 3-5 years of nhl playoffs, and the home team has won basically 50% of the time, which in my view completely nullifies the home-ice advantage (as opposed to in MLB where it's closer to 57% or NBA where it's about 66%).

My main point is, from the fan point of view where we have no control over the team's actions, all we gotta do is not worry too much about what happens in regular season. If any of you are like the old me where we'd get depressed after a losing streak or get all overexcited after a winning streak, it's a good reality check to think of the regular season as just a glorified pre-season for the playoffs.

I still spend a lot of my time reading about and discussing the team, but only for fun. I'm not gonna leave my personal happiness depending on something I have zero control over. And don't get me wrong, I'll be in ecstasy if they do win the cup, but it won't affect me like it did in 2011 SCF.
  • 0

#2 Quoted

Quoted

    Canucks Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,268 posts
  • Joined: 17-September 07

Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:43 AM

Though the specific standings once making the playoffs might not mean as much as they used to, if the team isn't playing well and missing pieces, they aren't going far in the playoffs. It appears that this is the case with the Canucks. If they continue to play they way they are with this roster, even if they make the playoffs (and I still think they will), they can't suddenly "become" a great team at will. Yes, teams get hot or peak at the playoffs, but you need the right people and there are serious concerns there for me.
  • 0

#3 Kumquats

Kumquats

    Canucks Second-Line

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,426 posts
  • Joined: 05-July 08

Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:49 AM

lol, the main point is longer than the background. (will read now, maybe)
  • 0
Posted Image

#4 westvandude

westvandude

    Comets Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 165 posts
  • Joined: 23-May 11

Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:54 AM

lol, the main point is longer than the background. (will read now, maybe)


hahaha... well it takes half the time to read the Main Point only instead of the whole thing ;)
  • 0

#5 goalie13

goalie13

    Osgoodian One

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,098 posts
  • Joined: 30-April 07

Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:54 AM

Bingo.

I've found it amusing how so many people last season were posting about not bothering trying for the President's Trophy, it's a waste of time, just concentrate on the playoffs, etc. Now that the team seems to be taking the regular season less seriously, the sky is falling.

As long as they get their act together as t he playoffs approach, that's all that matters. When the Canucks finally win the Stanley Cup, will we even care if they did it from 1st place, 3rd place or 8th place? No.

With parity these days, it hardly matters whether you are the 1st place team facing the 8th place team or the 6th place team facing the 3rd place team. Every team that makes the playoffs is going to be a tough competitor.
  • 0
Posted Image

#6 Quoted

Quoted

    Canucks Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,268 posts
  • Joined: 17-September 07

Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:58 AM

As long as they get their act together as t he playoffs approach, that's all that matters.


I think it's trust in their ability to do so that is so much of a concern.
  • 0

#7 TheCammer

TheCammer

    Canucks Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,597 posts
  • Joined: 27-June 08

Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:59 AM

I was thinking about the op's comments on the home rink advantage in the playoffs not meaning much which takes away a bit of the importance of finishing higher in the standings during the regular season.

One thing I think the NHL should consider is changing the advantage. The top-seeded team gets the first 3 games at home, the next 3 away and then the 7th at home. Then it is also about creating playoff revenue for your team as well as home rink advantage in terms of line changes etc.
  • 0
Posted Image

#8 Z. Kassian

Z. Kassian

    Canucks Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,124 posts
  • Joined: 14-July 07

Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:00 AM

Bingo.

I've found it amusing how so many people last season were posting about not bothering trying for the President's Trophy, it's a waste of time, just concentrate on the playoffs, etc. Now that the team seems to be taking the regular season less seriously, the sky is falling.

As long as they get their act together as t he playoffs approach, that's all that matters. When the Canucks finally win the Stanley Cup, will we even care if they did it from 1st place, 3rd place or 8th place? No.

With parity these days, it hardly matters whether you are the 1st place team facing the 8th place team or the 6th place team facing the 3rd place team. Every team that makes the playoffs is going to be a tough competitor.


How many 8th seeds have won the cup? 1? La last year I believe
  • 0
Posted Image

#9 Quoted

Quoted

    Canucks Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,268 posts
  • Joined: 17-September 07

Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:08 AM

How many 8th seeds have won the cup? 1? La last year I believe


And they were a better team than their record showed (one of the better teams thoughout the second half of the season). Although always possible, not too many truly average team squeak into the playoffs and then go very far.
  • 0

#10 westvandude

westvandude

    Comets Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 165 posts
  • Joined: 23-May 11

Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:14 AM

And they were a better team than their record showed (one of the better teams thoughout the second half of the season). Although always possible, not too many truly average team squeak into the playoffs and then go very far.


It depends on how you look at it. At the time of the playoffs, yes they were better than their record shows. But the whole point of a record is to show a team's greatness OVER A SET amount of time, not just at a single point of time.

Also, a large chuck of their record was produced prior to the trade deadline, which is another issue with this system. Basically you're just hoping that the teams that are giving up on their season and giving away good players for draft picks, aren't trading with your opponents and are trading with you instead. That also makes this system more unfair and unpredictable, and hence less worthy of emotional investment!
  • 0

#11 westvandude

westvandude

    Comets Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 165 posts
  • Joined: 23-May 11

Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:15 AM

I was thinking about the op's comments on the home rink advantage in the playoffs not meaning much which takes away a bit of the importance of finishing higher in the standings during the regular season.

One thing I think the NHL should consider is changing the advantage. The top-seeded team gets the first 3 games at home, the next 3 away and then the 7th at home. Then it is also about creating playoff revenue for your team as well as home rink advantage in terms of line changes etc.


I would even say give them a real advantage like starting the series with a win! Now that would be something to play for if you know you only need 3 wins instead of 4 for your opponent.
  • 0

#12 spliced

spliced

    Canucks Third-Line

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,155 posts
  • Joined: 31-January 03

Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:16 AM

Yes LA won last year as an 8th seed, but if you look at the last few decades it's almost always one of the top 4 seeds in the conference that win. Being good for all those regular season games shows a much higher likelihood that those are quality teams. While home ice may not be the payoff it should be it doesn't take away from the quality of those teams.

When you look at seeds 5-8 sure they win a lot of individual series, but how often do they win 4 Series in a row to win the cup? Not very much.
  • 0

#13 goalie13

goalie13

    Osgoodian One

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,098 posts
  • Joined: 30-April 07

Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:18 AM

How many 8th seeds have won the cup? 1? La last year I believe


If it wasn't for the change up in the playoff format next year (no more 8th seeds), I think it is something that we would start seeing more and more. With the salary cap system there is less of a difference between the top seed and the 8th seed than there ever was before.
  • 0
Posted Image

#14 Quoted

Quoted

    Canucks Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,268 posts
  • Joined: 17-September 07

Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:18 AM

It depends on how you look at it. At the time of the playoffs, yes they were better than their record shows. But the whole point of a record is to show a team's greatness OVER A SET amount of time, not just at a single point of time.

Also, a large chuck of their record was produced prior to the trade deadline, which is another issue with this system. Basically you're just hoping that the teams that are giving up on their season and giving away good players for draft picks, aren't trading with your opponents and are trading with you instead. That also makes this system more unfair and unpredictable, and hence less worthy of emotional investment!


Agreed - mostly with LA though, you could see that they were clearly getting better and better as the season went on. The first half's result brought down their points total, thus their place in the standings. If they were up and down over the whole season, it would be much more like you say (a good measure over a longer period).

Either way, most 8th seeds really don't have much of a hope in the playoffs.
  • 0

#15 EagleShield

EagleShield

    Comets Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 399 posts
  • Joined: 18-February 13

Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:21 AM

Some stats:

14-7-3 (31/48 points [0.646]) to start 2010-11
15-6-2 (32/46 points [0.696]) Jan 19 - March 11 2011

12-11-1 (25/48 points [0.521]) to start 2011-12
14-4-4 (32/44 points [0.727]) Jan 19 - March 11 2012 (post Stanley Cup game 8 in Boston in January 2012, we went 15-4-5 (35/48 [0.729]), interestingly)

11-7-6 (28/48 points [0.583]) so far this season.
  • 0

#16 EagleShield

EagleShield

    Comets Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 399 posts
  • Joined: 18-February 13

Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:22 AM

Agreed - mostly with LA though, you could see that they were clearly getting better and better as the season went on. The first half's result brought down their points total, thus their place in the standings. If they were up and down over the whole season, it would be much more like you say (a good measure over a longer period).

Either way, most 8th seeds really don't have much of a hope in the playoffs.


Going into the playoffs, look at the teams last 10 games vs other playoff teams in their conference. That's an indicator.
  • 0

#17 Noheart

Noheart

    Canucks Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,810 posts
  • Joined: 01-June 12

Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:23 AM

I am to lazy to look it up but I am positive the top 4 seeds have a significantly better chance of winning the Stanley cup.

  • 0
Posted Image

BEASTLY!!!

#18 Captain Aerosex

Captain Aerosex

    Canucks First-Line

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,011 posts
  • Joined: 06-February 08

Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:24 AM

Like how people are saying "LA won the Cup as an 8th seed, it's good that we won't be winning the PT this year", or insisting that we fire AV because after Pittsburgh and LA fired their coach they won (though I think tossing AV has more reason now).

People like to look into these sort of things and put spins of destiny on it...just got to hope the team puts it together, or a better team is put together itself.
  • 0
Posted Image

#19 Gretzky's Mullet

Gretzky's Mullet

    Canucks Star

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 7,598 posts
  • Joined: 12-August 05

Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:28 AM

You still have to make the playoffs. That certainly isn't guaranteed at this point.
  • 0
Posted Image

LUC BOURDON: FEB 16TH, 1987 - MAY 29TH, 2008

#20 nuckin_futz

nuckin_futz

    Canucks Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,282 posts
  • Joined: 09-January 12

Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:32 AM

I heard someone on tv suggest this playoff format once. Seemed kind of interesting.

Let the #1 seed choose who they want to play out of the 7 lower seeds.

Then the 2nd seed picks next and so on.

Would certainly make for interesting story lines about teams ducking other teams. Especially when you have to face them in later rounds.

Edited by nuckin_futz, 11 March 2013 - 11:32 AM.

  • 0

#21 Quoted

Quoted

    Canucks Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,268 posts
  • Joined: 17-September 07

Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:36 AM

I heard someone on tv suggest this playoff format once. Seemed kind of interesting.

Let the #1 seed choose who they want to play out of the 7 lower seeds.

Then the 2nd seed picks next and so on.

Would certainly make for interesting story lines about teams ducking other teams. Especially when you have to face them in later rounds.



And any management group that picks a team to play and loses in the first round will get slaughtered by the media and fans!
  • 0

#22 nuckin_futz

nuckin_futz

    Canucks Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,282 posts
  • Joined: 09-January 12

Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:38 AM

And any management group that picks a team to play and loses in the first round will get slaughtered by the media and fans!


Same as any top seed that loses early. Just a little bit worse.
  • 0

#23 westvandude

westvandude

    Comets Prospect

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 165 posts
  • Joined: 23-May 11

Posted 11 March 2013 - 12:19 PM

I heard someone on tv suggest this playoff format once. Seemed kind of interesting.

Let the #1 seed choose who they want to play out of the 7 lower seeds.

Then the 2nd seed picks next and so on.

Would certainly make for interesting story lines about teams ducking other teams. Especially when you have to face them in later rounds.
--------------
And any management group that picks a team to play and loses in the first round will get slaughtered by the media and fans!


That's definitely a very fun way of doing it, and more fair in my opinion. I actually had started a discussion thread about this a couple weeks ago (didn't realize people had already mentioned it on TV so thought I was the first coming up with it haha). Here's the link to it:
http://forum.canucks...or-realignment/

Definitely the teams getting picked will have extra motivation to win, and the management team will get media-sht-kicked if they lose... but honestly, this business (and any other) is all about management making decisions. They have to choose their trades, their everyday line ups, etc. This is just another choice that could be made by them, and will be criticized just like other decisions they have to make.

I just think it will add so much more entertainment and strategy and discussions in media that is a win-win for all stakeholders:
- Fans will have so much more to talk about
- League is more fair than what it is right now (more prize for the winning teams in regular season)
- Players and fans get more riled up cuz either their team is choosing an "easy" opponent and they have to prove it, or is being chosen as the "easy" opponent and they have to disprove it
- Media will have its field day with these decisions (and will probably ride it the whole season too) and rack up those all-important viewer numbers, before, during and after the playoffs!
- NHL will be more hotly discussed in the media, and will get more attention, hence more viewership from the US fans

I think it's win-win for everybody!

Edited by westvandude, 11 March 2013 - 12:22 PM.

  • 0

#24 joecanada777

joecanada777

    Canucks Regular

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,352 posts
  • Joined: 06-August 04

Posted 11 March 2013 - 12:21 PM

If it wasn't for the change up in the playoff format next year (no more 8th seeds), I think it is something that we would start seeing more and more. With the salary cap system there is less of a difference between the top seed and the 8th seed than there ever was before.


GOod point will be interesting to see if the stats confirm this... As of now playoff seed still appears to matter...
  • 0

QUOTE(queen_canuck_fan)
cuz when I saw you outside in the bushes, by length I would have guessed 11...

QUOTE(Whiskey7 @ Apr 19 2007, 08:47 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>
This is done in almost every sport, in every league, for a great player who has an "oooooo" sound in his name. I'm always a bit surprised when people don't pick up on it, and announcers on TV have to clarify for those at home.

#25 goalie13

goalie13

    Osgoodian One

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,098 posts
  • Joined: 30-April 07

Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:00 PM

I take back what I said earlier. Although it felt like parity had made it so there was little difference from 1st to 8th, L.A.'s win was more of an anomaly than I gave it credit for.

I went back and looked at all the Stanley Cup Champs since the cap came in and what seed they were...

2006 - Carolina - 2nd seed
2007 - Anaheim - 2nd seed
2008 - Detroit - 1st seed
2009 - Pittsburgh - 4th seed
2010 - Chicago - 2nd seed
2011 - Frikkin' Boston - 3rd seed
2012 - L.A. - 8th seed

So it turns out the regular season isn't as much a waste of time as thought. Those who win their division certainly have an edge.

So hopefully the Canucks can pull up their socks and at least get that division title back.
  • 0
Posted Image

#26 CanucksSayEh

CanucksSayEh

    Canucks Third-Line

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,346 posts
  • Joined: 07-March 12

Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:21 PM

1 8th seed winning the cup doesn't throw away the importance of regular season play.
  • 0




0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users

Canucks.com is the official Web site of The Vancouver Canucks. The Vancouver Canucks and Canucks.com are trademarks of The Vancouver Canucks Limited Partnership.  NHL and the word mark and image of the Stanley Cup are registered trademarks and the NHL Shield and NHL Conference logos are trademarks of the National Hockey League. All NHL logos and marks and NHL team logos and marks as well as all other proprietary materials depicted herein are the property of the NHL and the respective NHL teams and may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of NHL Enterprises, L.P.  Copyright © 2009 The Vancouver Canucks Limited Partnership and the National Hockey League.  All Rights Reserved.