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The real reason for our spot in the standings.


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#1 zombieksa

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 12:45 PM

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Like most of CDC, yesterday got be a little scared. Luckily Thomas Drance and Cam Charron (number wizards) have eased my pain a bit. We are a top possession team and our fenwick numbers and PDO indicate some wins should be coming soon enough. I don't doubt that. Maybe we end up in the 4-6th seed range come the playoffs but I am not worried about missing them entirely.

So I decided to do some looking around on the NHL website for any indication as why our team may be lower in the standings this season. Obviously we can still feast on the NW and we still have a handful of games against the lesser three teams (Col,Cal,Edm). But what else caused us to be a top tier team each year in the recent past?

:2011-2012: 11-5-2 --- 24/36pts
2010-2011: 11-6-1 --- 23/36pts
2009-2010: 13-5-0 --- 26/36pts
2008-2009: 10-6-2 --- 22/36pts
2007-2008: 5-3-2 --- 12/20pts
2006-2007: 8-1-1 --- 17/20pts
2005-2006: 9-1-0 --- 18/20pts

What are these?

These are the vs. East stats for our team since the last lockout.

These are dominating numbers for the most part collecting at least 60% of the possible points in every season and even as high as 90%.

This season has hampered our team by being stuck in the west all season, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Maybe this year will not be our year, maybe it will, but these stats give us something to look forward to in the meantime.

Next season we will play 30 games vs. the east. 12 games more than the last 4 seasons and a whopping 20 games more than the two years following the lockout. This should make a lot of you very happy. The Canucks have a playing style that is dominant versus most teams in the east. Enough grit that is required to play in the low scoring/grinding west, but an array of skill players both on the frontlines as well as the backend.

I would even go as far as to say we would have Norris nominees on our team if we were a team playing in the east all season, and possibly one or two Rocket Richard winners (Kesler, Dank).

We may never have that luxury of playing in a conference we are better suited for but next year is a very promising looking season.

Hope this can cheer some of you up.
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#2 RyanKeslord17

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 12:46 PM

Hmm, that's actually quite interesting. Good find. I still don't think this is why we suck, but it's definitely a contributing factor.
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#3 6YPE

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 12:51 PM

The real reason is lack of wins, the Luongo thing is affecting the team more than anyone wants to admit, and we miss Kesler...lack of scoring and other teams being more prepared.
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#4 French Toast Mafia

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 12:55 PM

Interesting stats, I didnít know that we had such a good record against the east in that last few years. Unfortunately, in the playoffs (except the SCF), we are going to have to figure out how to beat the teams in the west as well. That will not change regardless of how many regular season games we play against eastern teams.
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#5 Raffi Torres's Smirk

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 12:55 PM

Thanks knoxdown, that does make me feel a bit better. Now what sort of stats do you have that point towards this team starting to play with a bit more fire?
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#6 Smashian Kassian

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 12:55 PM

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#7 elvis15

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:01 PM

So... the real reason we aren't winning more is we don't play any of the Eastern teams?

Ok, kidding aside, I'd seen the stats before about how we fair against each conference and each division. Only this year are we feasting more on our own division significantly more than the other teams we play so it generally has been a false argument. We have benefited this year from that though, and done more poorly against other teams. It may be just injuries, but could also be play of the healthy players, coaching, or any number of things contributing.

All we have to do now is make a superthread of all the threads where CDC'ers say they think they know what's wrong and do them - that'll fix everything, right?
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#8 Snake Doctor

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:03 PM

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It's not the coach, it's the players not performing and Gillis not pulling the trigger on a trade.
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#9 Pineapples

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:05 PM

Interesting find, thanks for posting!

I knew we did well vs east teams, but had no idea it was that good
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#10 Primal Optimist

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:06 PM

I appreciate the argument you put forward, but right off the top I can see that roughly 66.66% of teh points in games against the east were captured by the Canucks over the last four years on average...so what was it against the west in those years? it is a comparison thing that counts.

My guess is 59% maybe 57%...so the difference is a ten % boost in points from the east vs points from the west...and in a 36 point season, like last year, against the east that is 3.6 points total..next year if it is indeed 30 games against the east, and it looks to be, then we are talking about a 6 point uptick over the course of the 60 point eastern games.

Again I like your stuff, good post, but when your talking about relative win ..east vs west..you need to put in the west stats too or its open to skewing to fit the narative.
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#11 Kevin Biestra

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:07 PM

The real reason?

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#12 zombieksa

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:07 PM

Thanks knoxdown, that does make me feel a bit better. Now what sort of stats do you have that point towards this team starting to play with a bit more fire?


Well as you are a new member I don't know how familiar you are with the local bloggers that right about our team.

If you are not Thomas Drance + Cam Charron (Who also writes about the leafs) are very good at using advanced stats such as PDO and Fenwick stats as determining factors as which way a team will trend in the near future. Although numbers are not perfect they are quite accurate. With a Fenwick stat in the top 6 teams (a puck possession stat that is a very accurate measure of a teams future trending) it is baffling that we have been losing so much in the last few weeks but is an indicator that this losing trend should turn around soon.

I don't want to pretend to be an expert on these advanced stats, but trust me when I say that we do not have to worry yet. If these stats lie and in 3 weeks we are still struggling for a playoff spot, then you can panic, but doing so right now will do you only harm.
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#13 Smashian Kassian

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:08 PM

It's not the coach, it's the players not performing and Gillis not pulling the trigger on a trade.


Yeah because trades are just waiting to be made.

And that is so apparent by the laundry list of trades that have already been made by rival GM's.

Gillis is trying, there is just nothing out there right now, nothing out there for anyone.

AV makes dumb decisions and doesn't adjust, although goaltending needs to be better.
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#14 nuckin_futz

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:08 PM

I knew we did well vs east teams, but had no idea it was that good


Would have been cool if the play vs Eastern teams had held up in the finals. :(
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#15 CanucksFanMike

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:14 PM

That is a good point..... but still, it isn't "the real reason" why the Canucks are down in the standings.
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#16 smithers joe

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:15 PM

gillis is trying to make moves but you have to have willing partners..in making trades, they have to determine which players could help this team. will they fit into our cap and what do others teams want for those players? when the right deal presents it's self, gillis will pull the trigger....how stupid would it be to give up a second round pick and mason raymond for a ufa that would only be a rental?
for all those that are saying gillis refuses to make trades, he is trying not to make a bad trade.
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#17 zombieksa

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:16 PM

I appreciate the argument you put forward, but right off the top I can see that roughly 66.66% of teh points in games against the east were captured by the Canucks over the last four years on average...so what was it against the west in those years? it is a comparison thing that counts.

My guess is 59% maybe 57%...so the difference is a ten % boost in points from the east vs points from the west...and in a 36 point season, like last year, against the east that is 3.6 points total..next year if it is indeed 30 games against the east, and it looks to be, then we are talking about a 6 point uptick over the course of the 60 point eastern games.

Again I like your stuff, good post, but when your talking about relative win ..east vs west..you need to put in the west stats too or its open to skewing to fit the narative.


This is a good point and I am up for criticism, and maybe the title is a bit misleading. It may not be THE reason, but I believe it is a large factor in our current position. Not having 2 games against Toronto (lol) is 4 points we are almost assured of each year.

One example I like to look at is last year on the 23rd and 24th of February last year. On the 23rd we broke the Red Wings home streak and if anyone remembers that game it was a hard fought game and the team was gassed when they played the Devils the very next day. Still they were able to handle the Devils easily and came out with another win. This was a NJ team on a 4 game winning streak and with 2 days rest to our 0.
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#18 kj29

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:17 PM

The real reason why the Canucks are down in the standings is...................... wait there is no reason, it's because of nothing
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#19 Socrates

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:29 PM

...
Only this year are we feasting more on our own division significantly more than the other teams we play
...


... WERE feasting
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#20 zombieksa

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:34 PM

... WERE feasting


We still have a handful of games against the avs flames and oilers coming up, we can still feast.
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#21 Canucks fan in chicago

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:37 PM

Because we're playing badly maybe? Hmmmmm
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#22 ThaBestPlaceOnEarth

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:49 PM

Having a dependable faceoff guy couldn't hurt either!
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#23 RUPERTKBD

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:55 PM

If you are not Thomas Drance + Cam Charron (Who also writes about the leafs) are very good at using advanced stats such as PDO and Fenwick stats as determining factors as which way a team will trend in the near future. Although numbers are not perfect they are quite accurate. With a Fenwick stat in the top 6 teams (a puck possession stat that is a very accurate measure of a teams future trending) it is baffling that we have been losing so much in the last few weeks but is an indicator that this losing trend should turn around soon.

I don't want to pretend to be an expert on these advanced stats, but trust me when I say that we do not have to worry yet. If these stats lie and in 3 weeks we are still struggling for a playoff spot, then you can panic, but doing so right now will do you only harm.


I've been saying this for a while now, but the general roar of pessimism has drowned me out.

The Canucks consistently outshoot their opponents, but for whatever reason, aren't burying their chances. (Howard robbing Burrows two games ago is a good example)

I have to believe that eventually these shots are going to find the back of the net.

BTW: I know a lot of the doom and gloom crowd will claim that these are not "good" shots, but I just can't get behind such a generalization, when the team is so consistent in outshooting their opponents.
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#24 elvis15

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 01:58 PM

... WERE feasting

Not too sure what you're going for, perhaps "we're" to replace my "are we"? Or are you suggesting we have done so in the past but aren't currently?

BTW, we're 6-3-1 against the Northwest this year, compared to 4-2-3 against the Central, and 3-4-2 against the Pacific. Maybe not entirely feasting, but my point about the gap between our record against the Northwest versus other divisions being greater than it has in previous years still stands.
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#25 DaMacNamedDre

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 02:07 PM

I've been saying this for a while now, but the general roar of pessimism has drowned me out.

The Canucks consistently outshoot their opponents, but for whatever reason, aren't burying their chances. (Howard robbing Burrows two games ago is a good example)

I have to believe that eventually these shots are going to find the back of the net.

BTW: I know a lot of the doom and gloom crowd will claim that these are not "good" shots, but I just can't get behind such a generalization, when the team is so consistent in outshooting their opponents.


we need a couple guys that can finish, most of our shots are perimeter shots that hit the goalies chest in the middle of the logo.

lack of finish has been an issue for a long time, only elite tending has covered it, now with average goaltending this team is exposed for what it is, average.

If the Canucks wants to improve it will have to start with guys playing with wreckless abandon finishing every check and i just don't see it with this group. They wont fight for each other.
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Posted ImageBodee, on 18 April 2012 - 11:07 AM, said:

I haven't been a supporter of the Canucks for long. Mainly because firstly I know nothing about NHL and secondly ESPN America only started showing NHL 3 years ago.

http://forum.canucks.com/topic/328055-whats-wrong-with-me
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#26 disisdayear

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 02:10 PM

Well as you are a new member I don't know how familiar you are with the local bloggers that right about our team.

If you are not Thomas Drance + Cam Charron (Who also writes about the leafs) are very good at using advanced stats such as PDO and Fenwick stats as determining factors as which way a team will trend in the near future. Although numbers are not perfect they are quite accurate. With a Fenwick stat in the top 6 teams (a puck possession stat that is a very accurate measure of a teams future trending) it is baffling that we have been losing so much in the last few weeks but is an indicator that this losing trend should turn around soon.

I don't want to pretend to be an expert on these advanced stats, but trust me when I say that we do not have to worry yet. If these stats lie and in 3 weeks we are still struggling for a playoff spot, then you can panic, but doing so right now will do you only harm.


The advanced stats that are presented are interesting...however, when it comes to Fenwick's quantitative measurements, one needs to see where on the ice one possesses the puck.

From my observations, my sense is that the majority of our puck possession time is moving the puck through our end and through the neutral zone, plus a disproportionate amount of time along the wall or on the perimeter. We typically have possession of the puck in areas of the ice where we have limited opportunity to score (i.e., take a look at our PP -- lots of puck possession, but very little scoring chances and goals).

I would be interested in seeing how the Fenwick numbers are trending for the Canucks...I think we won no more than 30% of the faceoffs last night, so for a team that needs to have the puck to win, my sense is that we're playing with the puck less often than we have been in the past. That should be a cause of concern for us Canucks faithful.
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#27 RUPERTKBD

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 02:10 PM

we need a couple guys that can finish, most of our shots are perimeter shots that hit the goalies chest in the middle of the logo.

lack of finish has been an issue for a long time, only elite tending has covered it, now with average goaltending this team is exposed for what it is, average.

If the Canucks wants to improve it will have to start with guys playing with wreckless abandon finishing every check and i just don't see it with this group. They wont fight for each other.


I disagree that most of our shots are perimeter shots that hit the goalie in the chest.

I also disagree that they won't fight for each other. The team is slumping, but they haven't given up, even if some of their fans have...
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#28 DaMacNamedDre

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 02:25 PM

I disagree that most of our shots are perimeter shots that hit the goalie in the chest.

I also disagree that they won't fight for each other. The team is slumping, but they haven't given up, even if some of their fans have...


do u watch the games ? or just the highlights ?
Just last night i watched Henrik Sedin take a brutal crosscheck to the ribs and not one team mate address it.
its a joke, almost a rite of passage for opposing players to now brutalize a Sedin and have it go unanswered.
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Posted ImageBodee, on 18 April 2012 - 11:07 AM, said:

I haven't been a supporter of the Canucks for long. Mainly because firstly I know nothing about NHL and secondly ESPN America only started showing NHL 3 years ago.

http://forum.canucks.com/topic/328055-whats-wrong-with-me
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#29 disisdayear

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 02:30 PM

I disagree that most of our shots are perimeter shots that hit the goalie in the chest.

I also disagree that they won't fight for each other. The team is slumping, but they haven't given up, even if some of their fans have...


I would have to agree with DaMac, Rupert. Our forwards have a hard time taking the puck to the middle, but when we do, we seem to have decent success and draw penalties.

We have been getting our fair share of shots, but shots don't always = quality scoring chances (which has been the case the past 12 to 15 games). I buy the argument that we've run into some hot goalies of late (Backstrom, Howard), but I would also argue that we haven't made life for opposing goalies all that difficult (we got some gimmes from Rinne and a couple from Quick, so when we've won, we ran into soft tending).

For those who read my posts, I'm sure you're getting sick and tired of me saying that we need to take our game to the middle of the ice instead of along the wall, but that is what I see so far this season...conversely, on defence, there's too much space we're giving up through the middle to the opposing team (e.g., Cullen's goal in the third last night).

Edited by disisdayear, 19 March 2013 - 03:48 PM.

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#30 RUPERTKBD

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 03:13 PM

do u watch the games ? or just the highlights ?
Just last night i watched Henrik Sedin take a brutal crosscheck to the ribs and not one team mate address it.
its a joke, almost a rite of passage for opposing players to now brutalize a Sedin and have it go unanswered.


I watch the games. In fact, I've been watching since 1970.
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