Derp... Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 You need 30 gp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rollieo Del Fuego Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 First by a wide margin too. 7 percentage points above third place. Horvat would have been top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derp... Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Horvat would have been between Dal Colle and McDavid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 Man, we might have scored a serious gem here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derp... Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I think so. Check this from behind the net: Basically summed up as 20 year old in Major Junior project 17-33% of there points to NHL points. The significance of Age Does it matter how old a player is when he puts up big numbers in Junior? Obviously it does – Wayne Gretzky had 70 goals and 112 assists in 64 games for the Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds as a 17-year-old in 1977-78. Seven years later, Dan Hodgson had the exact same statistics when he was a 20-year-old playing for the Prince Albert Raiders. Hodgson was drafted 83rd overall despite his prolific scoring, and had 74 points in a 114-game NHL career. (He is still active in the Swiss National League.) At age 22, Hodgson had 57 NHL points; Gretzky had already scored 1024 points between theNHL and WHA. So in a qualitative sense, it’s obvious in this case that a 17-year-old player’s performance predicts a much better career than a 20-year-old’s stats. But there is also a strong quantitative relationship between past and future performance.Based on the performance of thousands of drafted players, we can predict how many points a player will score in the NHL when he’s 21-years-old. If he’s 17, four years later, we expect him to score at 72% of his junior rate. But if he’s 20, on average, he’ll retain just 26% of his scoring. There is a caveat: younger players are a bit less predictable than older players. For a 17-year-old, the middle 50% range of the projection is from 45% to 98%, while for a 20-year-old, it’s from 17% to 33%. This wide range reflects how unpredictable future performance is for NHL players. From age 21 to age 25, Wayne Gretzky scored between 196 and 215 points each season, which is only a 10% variation, while this method predicts a possible 2:1 variation in scoring. The performance of an individual player is much more consistent than it is for the large group of drafted NHL players. With this in mind Dane's numbers would give him 78 goals, and 50 assists over 68 games of MJ 78 x .17 = 13 goals 60 x .17 = 9 assists That is his minimum NHL projection over 82 games. 78 x .33 = 26 goals 50 x .33 = 17 Assists That's his maximum projection That means we nabbed a 22-43 point projected NHL player for free! In the perfect situation he could be a 25 goal scorer at the NHL. This is not perfectly accurate of course, but the numbers are based off of legitimate statistics that someone has dug up. The average for a 20 year old is to translate 26%, but with Fox being an October baby, I think he gains a few % points for the age difference. 28% translation would give him 22G and 14A at the NHL level. That screams third liner with lots of PP time to me. Could bust of course, but I'm hopeful he will reach those numbers one day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ihatetomatoes Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I think so. Check this from behind the net: Basically summed up as 20 year old in Major Junior project 17-33% of there points to NHL points. The significance of Age Does it matter how old a player is when he puts up big numbers in Junior? Obviously it does – Wayne Gretzky had 70 goals and 112 assists in 64 games for the Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds as a 17-year-old in 1977-78. Seven years later, Dan Hodgson had the exact same statistics when he was a 20-year-old playing for the Prince Albert Raiders. Hodgson was drafted 83rd overall despite his prolific scoring, and had 74 points in a 114-game NHL career. (He is still active in the Swiss National League.) At age 22, Hodgson had 57 NHL points; Gretzky had already scored 1024 points between theNHL and WHA. So in a qualitative sense, it’s obvious in this case that a 17-year-old player’s performance predicts a much better career than a 20-year-old’s stats. But there is also a strong quantitative relationship between past and future performance.Based on the performance of thousands of drafted players, we can predict how many points a player will score in the NHL when he’s 21-years-old. If he’s 17, four years later, we expect him to score at 72% of his junior rate. But if he’s 20, on average, he’ll retain just 26% of his scoring. There is a caveat: younger players are a bit less predictable than older players. For a 17-year-old, the middle 50% range of the projection is from 45% to 98%, while for a 20-year-old, it’s from 17% to 33%. This wide range reflects how unpredictable future performance is for NHL players. From age 21 to age 25, Wayne Gretzky scored between 196 and 215 points each season, which is only a 10% variation, while this method predicts a possible 2:1 variation in scoring. The performance of an individual player is much more consistent than it is for the large group of drafted NHL players. With this in mind Dane's numbers would give him 78 goals, and 50 assists over 68 games of MJ 78 x .17 = 13 goals 60 x .17 = 9 assists That is his minimum NHL projection over 82 games. 78 x .33 = 26 goals 50 x .33 = 17 Assists That's his maximum projection That means we nabbed a 22-43 point projected NHL player for free! In the perfect situation he could be a 25 goal scorer at the NHL. This is not perfectly accurate of course, but the numbers are based off of legitimate statistics that someone has dug up. The average for a 20 year old is to translate 26%, but with Fox being an October baby, I think he gains a few % points for the age difference. 28% translation would give him 22G and 14A at the NHL level. That screams third liner with lots of PP time to me. Could bust of course, but I'm hopeful he will reach those numbers one day! Now that is some excellent math. The overager thing makes it quite deceiving when a guy is potting 70 goals. But nothing wrong with a 15-25 goal player for free. excellent read..thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phamda Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I think so. Check this from behind the net: Basically summed up as 20 year old in Major Junior project 17-33% of there points to NHL points. The significance of Age Does it matter how old a player is when he puts up big numbers in Junior? Obviously it does – Wayne Gretzky had 70 goals and 112 assists in 64 games for the Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds as a 17-year-old in 1977-78. Seven years later, Dan Hodgson had the exact same statistics when he was a 20-year-old playing for the Prince Albert Raiders. Hodgson was drafted 83rd overall despite his prolific scoring, and had 74 points in a 114-game NHL career. (He is still active in the Swiss National League.) At age 22, Hodgson had 57 NHL points; Gretzky had already scored 1024 points between theNHL and WHA. So in a qualitative sense, it’s obvious in this case that a 17-year-old player’s performance predicts a much better career than a 20-year-old’s stats. But there is also a strong quantitative relationship between past and future performance.Based on the performance of thousands of drafted players, we can predict how many points a player will score in the NHL when he’s 21-years-old. If he’s 17, four years later, we expect him to score at 72% of his junior rate. But if he’s 20, on average, he’ll retain just 26% of his scoring. There is a caveat: younger players are a bit less predictable than older players. For a 17-year-old, the middle 50% range of the projection is from 45% to 98%, while for a 20-year-old, it’s from 17% to 33%. This wide range reflects how unpredictable future performance is for NHL players. From age 21 to age 25, Wayne Gretzky scored between 196 and 215 points each season, which is only a 10% variation, while this method predicts a possible 2:1 variation in scoring. The performance of an individual player is much more consistent than it is for the large group of drafted NHL players. With this in mind Dane's numbers would give him 78 goals, and 50 assists over 68 games of MJ 78 x .17 = 13 goals 60 x .17 = 9 assists That is his minimum NHL projection over 82 games. 78 x .33 = 26 goals 50 x .33 = 17 Assists That's his maximum projection That means we nabbed a 22-43 point projected NHL player for free! In the perfect situation he could be a 25 goal scorer at the NHL. This is not perfectly accurate of course, but the numbers are based off of legitimate statistics that someone has dug up. The average for a 20 year old is to translate 26%, but with Fox being an October baby, I think he gains a few % points for the age difference. 28% translation would give him 22G and 14A at the NHL level. That screams third liner with lots of PP time to me. Could bust of course, but I'm hopeful he will reach those numbers one day! I was trying to find these numbers earlier when I was arguing on the main forum in that prospect ranking topic some new poster made. Thanks derp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davinci Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I think it's so stupid to make projections. Who could have predicted burrows scoring 30 goals in the nhl? Let's see how he does in the AHL next season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phamda Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I think it's so stupid to make projections. Who could have predicted burrows scoring 30 goals in the nhl? Let's see how he does in the AHL next season It's because of projections underdogs like Burrows, Tanev and Corrado become loved by fan bases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elvis15 Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I don't know much about Sestito outside of his time in van but maybe the team that drafted him didn't draft him as a scorer but as an enforcer and didn't feel his scoring touch was worth developing so he gets stuck on the 4th line? so maybe he still has it and with more ice time and confidence from getting a chance to show his stuff maybe he will tap into said potential and be a decent 3rd liner for us if not he is still a pretty good 4th liner already. I doubt it, I don't think the rest of his game is good enough to be anything other than a 4th liner apart from a specialist role. Fox is more well rounded so that gives him a chance to succeed in a different way from Sestito, but he'll have to work on his 2 way play to ensure that's what gets him in the NHL. Hopefully from there his scoring touch will keep him there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thaji Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I have read a bit through the thread and I know there is a mention of his lack of skating speed. Wondering if someone who has seen him play or watched lot of his games can comment on what kind os skate he is. Is he more like Gaunce or Hodgson where he needs to improve significantly or decent like Horvat/Bergeron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amish Rake Fighter Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I have read a bit through the thread and I know there is a mention of his lack of skating speed. Wondering if someone who has seen him play or watched lot of his games can comment on what kind os skate he is. Is he more like Gaunce or Hodgson where he needs to improve significantly or decent like Horvat/Bergeron. There's a pretty sweet Dane Fox highlight reel around here somewhere so you can see for yourself. I think the knock on his skating was more from his original scouting report from 2011. He's not a speedster like Raymond but it. looks like he can get around the ice pretty nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derp... Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 He's got as much top end as Gaunce maybe more, faster acceleration though from what I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rollieo Del Fuego Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 What a steal this guy is going to turn out to be. He has plenty of speed just judging by the Conner Brown breakaway mid way through the video of his goals. Conner was ahead of everyone going as fast as he could, Dane was behind him and the defensemen but was catching up all the way from his blueline to the opposing net for the tap in rebound. He could be the sniper we almost never had (Cam Neely). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted January 10, 2014 Share Posted January 10, 2014 I think it's so stupid to make projections. Who could have predicted burrows scoring 30 goals in the nhl? Let's see how he does in the AHL next season But then why hire scouts? At the draft, we could just pick names from a hat.. There will occasionally be exceptions to the rule, so it's nice if we nab some of them too! Basically scout hard & draft well, but keep scouring high & low for late bloomers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RustyShackleford Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 I have watched the past few Erie games just to see what Danes game is like and here is what I noticed about his play. First off his defence IQ was something I hadnt read or heard about being as good as it is. Just for example whenever he was out on the ice Fox would always cover the point when a defenceman pinched down in the O zone or when both fowards were playing down low behind the net Fox would without hesitation go to the slot and make sure that that their was no oddman rushes the other way while showing to me top notch ability to skate backwards as well which really suprised me. Also the other part of his game I really noticed was his passing skill which seems either overlooked because of his goal scoring or its just really underrated like Kassians passing ability. Their was multiple passes Dane made from working off the boards and from behind the net that was simply amazing to see because I had no idea that his passing was as great as it is. The other thing that stood out to me was how big Dane is on the ice which could for sure be because his age because you can tell by how broad his shoulders are and that he already seems way more physically matured compaired to some of his teamates and competition. The player I see alot of in Danes game is Jeff Carter because like Carter Fox can dominate a game by scoring and just has that natural skill to put the puck in the net any and everyway possible. Also just like Carter all it takes for Fox is one shot/shift and he can go from being invisble to being the most dangerous player on the ice and can carry a team offensivlly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derp... Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 ^ Well if he's anything close to Jeff Carter I will be ecstatic! haha Cool to get some insight thanks for that. Also he had an empty netter for the otters tonight. 48G's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canucklehead44 Posted January 11, 2014 Share Posted January 11, 2014 One thing we aren't realizing is Dane Fox isn't just some overager having a solid season. He is having a season that is historically significant for the league. Right now he is on pace for 77 goals, which would put him 5th all time, ahead of Ciccarelli, Gilmour and Gretzky. It has been close to 30 years since an OHL player has had over 70 goals in a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honky Cat Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Utica will get a good bump in depth next year with Gaunce, Fox, and possibly Shinkaruk I am still not sure whether MG signed Fox to make the Canucks or just to make the Comets a more competitive team?...I guess either way..it's a win win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeNiro Posted January 12, 2014 Share Posted January 12, 2014 Fox now sits at 49 goals after scoring in the first period. Could reach 50 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.