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Dane Fox | LW/C


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The Canucks definitely stepped it up in terms of prospect coverage this year. It's awesome.

Were you not around last year?

Note that they also had videos of some prospects going around with a camera and mic when they went and watched a baseball game, when the prospects went dragon boating, and I believe there were some others

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Were you not around last year?

Note that they also had videos of some prospects going around with a camera and mic when they went and watched a baseball game, when the prospects went dragon boating, and I believe there were some others

I meant in terms of watching the guys off the ice and learning more about them.

Scrimmages are nice, but people tend to put to much analysis into them.

I'm more excited about the prospect tourney, where these guys will actually play hard and be looking to prove themselves against other teams top prospects.

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  • 1 month later...

CanucksArmy @CanucksArmy 11m

Prospect Profile #12: Dane Fox http://dlvr.it/6hVY8k

In his first year of eligibility for our cherished annual prospects list, Erie Otters forward Dane Fox makes his debut at number 12. An undrafted free agent, the 20-year-old Fox cashed in a whopping 64 goals while playing triggerman for Connor McDavid and Connor Brown with Erie in 2013-14. Sought after by a number of teams this winter, Fox signed a three-year entry-level contract - a deal that included the maximum signing bonus - with the Canucks in December.

Fox is the very last of a diverse and relatively successful class of undrafted free agents that were signed by the Canucks during the Mike Gillis era. It's a class that can claim a couple of star graduates, including Eddie Lack and Chris Tanev, and some big misses in Sebastian Erixon and Evan Oberg. No matter, the thing about an undrafted free agent is that they're found money, basically no-risk propositions.

In Fox's case, it's easy to get carried away looking at his massive OHL goal totals and forget that he managed his feat, and it's still impressive, while playing as an overager with a generational talent on a stacked team. That's critical context, and it's pretty unlikely that Fox will be a top-line scorer at the NHL level. Fox is still an intriguing depth prospect though, and his relatively high debut ranking slot speaks to that.

For hardcore Canucks fans, the basic contours of Fox's story are pretty well known at this point. As a 17-year-old with the London Knights Fox was rolling along in his first draft eligible season scoring at nearly a point per game clip when he abruptly left the team for personal reasons. The gritty checking forward, who had been suspended towards the end of the season previous for an undisclosed disciplinary reason, was ultimately dealt to the rebuilding Erie Otters, and struggled on a weaker team scoring just 10 goals and 22 points in his final 28 games while going -25. He unsurprisingly went undrafted.

The next season, Fox - now a 19-year-old for much of the season - scored at a point per game rate, but missed the first part of the season with a foot injury. Again, he went undrafted.

Finally in 2013-14 Fox found instant chemistry with Brown and McDavid on what was pretty clearly the most feared line in the OHL. Slotting in at left wing and occasionally at centre (Fox protected McDavid on draws against some of the OHL's better centerman, like Canucks prospect Bo Horvat), Fox scored more goals than anyone in the OHL has since John Tavares managed 72 in 2006-07. Of course where Fox was in his age-20 season when he scored 64, Tavares was 16 when he managed 72.

In reality though, the 60 goal barrier isn't a totally uncommon ground for Ontario Hockey League players to break, and doing so is far from a guarantee of future NHL stardom. In all, 33 different players have scored 60 goals or more in a full OHL season and nine players have done it this century (since 2000-01). Some of those players were eventual NHL stars, like Patrick Kane and Tavares; others developed into decent NHL depth players like Chad LaRose, and many more were ultimately of little consequence at the NHL level, like Corey Locke, Randy Rowe or Brett MacLean.

The key with evaluating Fox then, is to understand that a 64 goal season as a 20-year-old probably doesn't tell us as much about Fox's abilities and ceiling as his OHL career as a whole does.

Fox has always thought of himself as a gritty, two-way depth player and until he was a grizzled OHL vet, he produced like one. He's a guy who cites Dave Bolland as the player who he's modeled his own game after. If Fox sticks in the NHL, it's much more likely that he'll do so as a bottom-six forward than as a goal scoring dynamo.

That's not to pour too much cold water on a young player who has some significant tools, and one tool in particular that might be high-end. Let's start with the more basic stuff though, like that Fox is versatile, steady in all three-zones, and an agitating, physical presence up-front. Here's his now former coach Kris Knoblach talking about how he used Fox, and another Canucks prospect for good measure, back in March:

“While Dane has been scoring more goals for us this season, he hasn’t neglected the defensive side of his game. He’s one of the forwards we’ll have out there if we are protecting a lead late in the game and before we traded for Brendan Gaunce, he was taking all of our important face-offs.

Since we acquired Gaunce, he and Fox have shared the role of taking the big face-offs for us.”

Fox can take draws and has spent a significant amount of time at center, and might play in the middle in the American Hockey League next season. He probably should start at pivot in the pros, frankly. He was also a notably big hitter when I saw him live, though I'm not sure how much of that hearkens back to the whole "playing against guys three years younger than him" thing.

The two-way stuff is fine, but Fox's serious plus skill is his blistering, accurate shot. Voted the best shooter in the 2014 Western Conference's OHL coaches poll, Fox is a one-shot scorer who can get an awful lot on the puck, fires it hard even if he's off-balance or at an odd angle, and can pick the corner.

Here's video footage of Fox scoring lots and lots of goals (many of them while wearing Erie's slick home yellows):

Again, Fox is almost certainly not going to be an elite NHL sniper, but could he develop into that illusive bottom-six player with a persistently high goals per 60? General manager Jim Benning sure thinks so.

"He’s a hard-nosed guy," Benning told QMI's Cam Tucker during Canucks Prospects Camp this summer. "He’ll go to the tough areas that you need to go to score. He’ll pay the price to score goals.

“He still needs work to do off the ice to get in good physical condition. His skating, his first two steps need to continue to get better, but he can score so if he does those other things, he should be a good scorer for us.”

Because of his advanced age, Fox is sure to head to Utica along with a whole host of talented, young players like Gaunce and Hunter Shinkaruk among others this fall. It'll be very interesting to see how he performs in the AHL and whether his offensive game and hard, accurate shot can regularly beat professional goaltenders.

If it does, the Canucks could have a very intriguing asset on their hands.

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Does this analysis remind you of Burrows?

http://canucksarmy.com/2014/8/22/prospect-profile-12-dane-fox

This one certainly does. Two-way ability, grit and a solid shot (that forehand-backhand in the highlight video looks Burrows-esque!) is always a solid combination. If our forward group for prospects looks something like this then I can't wait to see how they pan out!

Shinkaruk - Horvat - Jensen

Virtanen - McCann - Vey

Fox - Gaunce - Kassian (gritty line, with two play-makers to set him up; maybe him and Gaunce can be Kes-Burr in the AHL?)

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I'm hoping Fox ends up in Utica, I can't see why he wouldn't make the team. If he can play with the type edge and confidence that he did in his last year of Jr. or even just continue his upward trajectory in terms of season over season improvement than I think he'll be a valuable utility player for the Canucks like Higgins who could slot in anywhere in the line up from last seconds of a PP to 4th line grinder with offensive upside.

Plus he has a great personality. That stuff does matter in a group environment.

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He was in the same draft year as Gaunce, but 8 months younger than Jensen. I think he's a lower than both of those players in terms of their development progress. It isn't like he's tiers lowers than our top prospects, here's my breakdown of where Fox is at:

Tier 1: Shinkaruk, Virtanen, Horvat, McCann.

Tier 2: Jensen, Gaunce, Vey (if you count him as a prospect).

Tier 3: Fox, Cassels.

I think it's realistic for Fox to reach the 2nd tier with a good AHL season. If he can keep up with Gaunce in the AHL that would be solid. Just something interesting to see especially since it cost nothing to get Fox, I hope he can stay afloat with Gaunce and maybe even Shinkaruk if they get time in the top 6.

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I bet Cassels has a better career than Jensen, Gaunce or Vey

It could happen but the odds are strongly against it. Cassels has done better than expected since being drafted but he still falls into a large general category of skill players not quite good enough to play top 6 in the NHL and without the size or defensive skills to play in the bottom six. He could make it to the NHL and I hope he does, but he is a longshot.

I am not sure why Vey does not get more respect. Let led the WHL (and the entire CHL) in scoring in his final year of junior (NOT as an over-ager) and he is a point-a-game player over the pasts two seasons in the AHL.

How many Canuck prospects have had that kind of track record? And, while he is not big, he at least about average size for an NHL centre. And he has developed into a good two-way player who is effective on the PK (as well as on the PP).

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Guest Dasein

It could happen but the odds are strongly against it. Cassels has done better than expected since being drafted but he still falls into a large general category of skill players not quite good enough to play top 6 in the NHL and without the size or defensive skills to play in the bottom six. He could make it to the NHL and I hope he does, but he is a longshot.

I am not sure why Vey does not get more respect. Let led the WHL (and the entire CHL) in scoring in his final year of junior (NOT as an over-ager) and he is a point-a-game player over the pasts two seasons in the AHL.

How many Canuck prospects have had that kind of track record? And, while he is not big, he at least about average size for an NHL centre. And he has developed into a good two-way player who is effective on the PK (as well as on the PP).

Yup.

Basically Vey is to the Canucks what Connor Brown is to Toronto (if he pans out - continues to develop in the AHL).

Vey is what Connor Brown hopes to be in a few years. He's Brown as the successful finished product ready to contribute. If you think Connor Brown is a good prospect you should be glad that we basically got the fully developed version for a 2nd round pick.

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So this isn't the dane fox thread?

Excuse me for one more second here...I know we should get back on point. That said...

Vey is the only one from the list of three that I hesitated about adding, I agree that he is a very exciting prospect.

Gotta disagree on the other points though - Cassels is known more for his defensive play and grittiness (albeit without much size) than his offense, only this last year has he really come into his own in the scoring department (but outscored Gaunce both in the regular season and the playoffs despite being a year younger). This kid is going to be GOOD.

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