Jump to content
The Official Site of the Vancouver Canucks
Canucks Community

Separatist battle in Canada rekindled with Quebec election


key2thecup

Recommended Posts

Separatist battle in Canada rekindled with Quebec election

QuebecFlagdetail_8153.jpg

Canada is bracing for another fight with Quebec separatists.

Premier Pauline Marois today called an election for April 7 as she met Lieutenant-Governor Pierre Duchesne to ask him to dissolve the provincial legislature. Polls show Marois’ separatist Parti Quebecois may have enough support to form its first majority government in more than a decade.

“Today, I have summoned my ministers and we have taken the necessary steps to dissolve the National Assembly and call an election,” Marois said in televised remarks in Quebec City. “It’s now up to you, Quebeckers, to decide.”

A majority would set the stage in the French-speaking province for a possible referendum on secession from the rest of Canada, roiling credit markets and threatening to push the Canadian dollar lower.

“If they get a majority, I fully expect they will hold a referendum during their next mandate,” said Harold Chorney, a political science professor at Concordia University in Montreal. “Marois isn’t going to give up sovereignty.”

A majority victory for the Parti Quebecois would mark the third time since the mid-1970s the party has taken sole control of the province’s legislature, propelling Quebec into another confrontation with the rest of Canada that a former premier once likened to a never-ending visit to the dentist.

THIRD VOTE

Quebec has held two plebiscites on splitting from Canada -- in 1980 and 1995 -- under previous Parti Quebecois majority governments. The party will hold a third vote if a victory is in sight, Jean-François Lisée, Quebec’s international relations minister, told ICI Radio-Canada television March 1. The separatists came within 0.6 of a percentage point of gaining majority support in the 1995 referendum, but support for the cause has been stalled in the 30 percent range in recent years.

“Will it be during the first mandate, during the second or during the third?,” Lisée said on the broadcaster. “I don’t know.”

Investors may already be pricing in greater odds of political uncertainty. The extra yield demanded by investors to hold 10-year bonds from Quebec rather than Ontario, Canada’s biggest province, has widened to about 18 basis points, from below 10 basis points in August.

‘BREAKING APART’

The two previous Parti Quebecois majority administrations, each lasting about a decade, also coincided with the last two periods of depreciation of the Canadian dollar. The loonie has posted declines in 14 of the 22 years in which the party has held power in Quebec, including a 7.1-percent drop last year and a further 4.3-percent decline in 2014 against the U.S. currency.

“The Americans or foreign investors or whatnot, I imagine they wouldn’t take it that well,” said Darcy Browne, managing director of currencies at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce’s CIBC World Markets unit in Toronto. “Are we still a safe haven if we’re breaking apart?”

The rise of Quebec separatist parties since the mid-1960s has also coincided with a period of economic decline for Quebec relative to the rest of Canada, including the loss of head office jobs. Between 1981 and 2012, Canada’s economic output adjusted for inflation grew 109 percent compared with an 82 percent gain for Quebec, and the province’s unemployment rate has averaged about 1.4 percentage points above the nationwide rate over the past three decades.

VALUES CHARTER

Montreal, home to Air Canada and Canadian National Railway Co., has seen the number of top 500 Canadian companies based in Quebec’s largest city decline to 75 in 2011 from 96 in 1990, according to the Fraser Institute, a Canadian research organization.

The Parti Quebecois returned to power in 2012 elections with a minority in the legislature, ending nine years of rule by the federalist Liberal Party. The separatists received 32 percent of the vote, less than one percentage point more than the Liberals.

Marois’s Parti Quebecois held 54 of the 125 seats in the provincial legislature, nine short of a majority. The Liberal Party had 49, the Coalition Avenir Quebec had 18, Quebec Solidaire had two and two seats were held by independent lawmakers.

‘NEW IDENTITY’

Support for Marois, 64, has since risen amid growing popularity for her so-called charter of values that limits displays of religious symbols such as turbans and hijabs in public.

The policy, which is most popular in the largely French- speaking regions outside of Montreal, has allowed her to put identity politics at the forefront of her party’s push for sovereignty, as language wanes as a divisive issue in Quebec.

“It’s about finding a new identity as Quebeckers,” said Antonia Maioni, associate professor of political science at McGill University in Montreal. “That’s part of that big narrative in moving towards an eventual sovereignty referendum. Who are we? How do we define ourselves?”

Thirty-seven percent of respondents in a Léger Marketing Internet poll published today by Journal de Montreal and the TVA television network said they would back the Parti Quebecois if an election were held now, compared with 35 percent for the Liberal Party. That result may be enough for the separatists to form a majority government, TVA reported.

Léger surveyed 1,052 Quebec residents from Feb. 28 to March 8. Results of the survey are considered accurate to within 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

‘WINNING CONDITIONS’

Even with control of the legislature, separatists would have work to do to achieve their goal of independence. Today’s Léger poll found support for sovereignty at 34 percent, with 49 percent opposed, 15 percent undecided and 2 percent who refused to answer.

Marois “is not on a suicide mission for sovereignty,” Maioni said. “The winning conditions are not there now.”

Quebec’s first woman premier, initially elected as a lawmaker in 1981, has said a majority Parti Quebecois government would hold public consultations on the future of Quebec, in part to gauge support for independence. The Parti Quebecois will also ramp up claims that Quebec is being shortchanged by federalism, part of a strategy Marois’s party calls “sovereigntist governance.”

FUNDING DISPUTES

Alexandre Cloutier, the University of Cambridge-educated minister for sovereigntist governance in the current government, released a report March 3 that found Quebec receives $830 million ($749 million US) less in federal spending on health and social services than its demographics warrant.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government won’t take the bait, said Andre Bachand, a former adviser to Harper on Quebec issues. He said the federal government will keep out of the election campaign and won’t get into fights with the Parti Quebecois over funding and powers that could stoke support for independence.

Marois’ best bet may be to capitalize on any groundswell of animosity that may emerge outside the province if Quebeckers re- elect separatists, said Bachand, a former lawmaker from Quebec who now works at Earnscliffe Strategy Group in Ottawa.

QUEBEC HOCKEY

Federal and provincial “governments will be prepared” for the Parti Quebecois, Bachand said. “The question to watch, after a PQ majority result, is what will be the reaction in the rest of Canada.”

One example of trying to provoke animosity was Marois’s press release last month congratulating Canada’s men’s hockey team for its gold medal in the Sochi Olympics, highlighting the Quebec-born players without mentioning the word Canada.

English Canada’s rejection in the early 1990s of constitutional reform that would have given Quebec more power was the trigger for the province’s last referendum in 1995, which the separatists lost by a margin of 50.6 percent to 49.4 percent.

After that near miss, former Prime Minister Jean Chretien’s government passed legislation saying Ottawa would not recognize a mere 50 percent plus one vote and would insist on a clear question. In 1995, then Premier Jacques Parizeau, who penned the dentist reference in a 1994 speech, later disclosed that he intended to move to a unilateral declaration of independence without negotiating with Canada.

LOW SUPPORT

One advantage the separatists may seek to exploit is the federal Conservatives’ lack of representation and low support in the province, where the party holds five of 75 districts. The Conservatives are in fourth place in support in Quebec, polling about 9.4 percent support in the province, according to a four- week rolling survey by Nanos Research of 208 Quebeckers that ended Feb. 15.

It’s a vulnerability for Harper that the opposition Liberal and New Democratic Party, both led by Quebeckers, will try to exploit ahead of federal elections in 2015.

At a convention last month in Montreal, Liberal Party Leader Justin Trudeau criticized Marois in both his speeches to party members. The main opposition New Democratic Party NDP has the most lawmakers from Quebec in the federal parliament. Leader Thomas Mulcair said in an interview with CBC radio on March 1 he has no doubt Marois will seek to hold a referendum, and said his party is best placed to deal with a Parti Quebecois majority because it’s the least divisive.

A Parti Quebecois majority means a “back to the future scenario” in terms of political and economic uncertainty, said Daniel Gagnier, chief of staff to former Quebec Premier Jean Charest, who Marois defeated in 2012.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2014/3/5/Separatist-battle-in-Canada-rekindled-with-Quebec-election.aspx

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If they leave, well goodbye to them, and they can take some of the federal debt and they cant have our money or passport and no more federal money ever.

They'll crawl back pretty quickly after realizing they cant sustain themselves.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

quebec can leave if they want to but a huge chunk of northern quebec will be given to indians as land claims and stlawrence river will be kept in canada no way canada gives up that waterway so easily its very similar to russias claim to crimea no way russia gives up that strategic water way

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If they leave, well goodbye to them, and they can take some of the federal debt and they cant have our money or passport and no more federal money ever.

They'll crawl back pretty quickly after realizing they cant sustain themselves.

Yes, but they want soverignty association. That mean keep all the federal jobs they hold. All the pensions like CPP and OAS. And continue using Canadian money.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, but they want soverignty association. That mean keep all the federal jobs they hold. All the pensions like CPP and OAS. And continue using Canadian money.

..and they want to use our currency and have a seat on the bank of Canada, and open boarders with free access to our markets etc etc etc!!!

What they want, and what they will get are two entirely different things. Their economy is in a shambles. Without the transfer payments from the rest of Canada (mostly Alberta) they cannot afford their social programs - which are more generous than any other province. They have never once contributed revenue to the transfer payments system but have been a drain on Canada's finances since day one.

Let them go! The separatists want to build their empire so let them. No-one in the world wants them...the US, Canada, France etc, no one wants anything to do with an economic or political union with a Quebec outside of Canada.

Best thing that could happen to Canada is if they left. Having said that, we would miss their athletes at the Olympics!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quebec has the highest provincial debt in Canada and including the US states its one of the highest in North America. This is with the aprox $12 billion in annual transfers given to them. Take that away, add in their share of the national debt and bingo theres a third world country next to Ontario.

When they had a referendum way back in 1980 a large number of corporations moved their headquarters to Toronto from Montreal. Most others followed with the 1995 referendum.If they hold another many more jobs will leave. These people are so ignorant and pigheaded. I used to care, I used to want them to stay but now I say screw em. IF they want to leave fine, just no handouts once the door to the kitchen closes for good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Gumballthechewy

These people are so ignorant and pigheaded. I used to care, I used to want them to stay but now I say screw em. IF they want to leave fine, just no handouts once the door to the kitchen closes for good.

Pretty much sums up my feelings on the situation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As long as they don't take Montreal, they rest of Quebec can fuck off, honestly.

We keep Montreal, the rest of Quebec can go become a debt-ridden third-world country. So sick of their shit.

Beautiful place, honestly, but what a bunch of pigheaded, near-sighted morons. I really don't understand how these people think they can sustain their economy once they're off the teat?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As long as they don't take Montreal, they rest of Quebec can frack off, honestly.

We keep Montreal, the rest of Quebec can go become a debt-ridden third-world country. So sick of their crap.

Beautiful place, honestly, but what a bunch of pigheaded, near-sighted morons. I really don't understand how these people think they can sustain their economy once they're off the teat?

No chance Montreal would stay with us. Honestly it would hurt us more. The east has major shipping routes to international markets. I would much rather have them be semi-automonous or automonous like Crimea or Hong Kong. Where they control their internal policies, but we control military and foreign relations. Also watch the US or some foreign power play their hand in this. Canada is already vulnerable with the US surround us in all corners we shouldn't cede anymore territory.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I love Quebec.

If it wasn't political and economical suicide for this to happen I would be all for it.

It doesn't feel like Canada when I go there, it is like its own world (and one I enjoy I might add).

I couldn't even imagine if in an alternate universe All the provinces were primarily french speaking with pictures of France's royal family in their classrooms and I was stuck in one province that is constantly bombarded with insults and racial bias.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

hopefully he is very popular in Quebec..

I don't know about Justin but the separatists hated his father because he was a Federalist. Remember Pierre Trudeau used the War Measures Act to fight the FLQ terrorists and the separatists have not forgotten this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...