Canucks not out yet

[Dogbyte]

True, but...it's pretty close...and interesting to watch.

From that site:

Welcome. This site sheds light on 3 things:

• A team’s odds of making the playoffs.
• How today’s games impact those odds.
• How well they need to finish the season to have a shot

• The algorithm does not know about things like trades, injuries, and matchups. It does not know that a team has started believing in themselves.
• "Out" does not necessarily mean mathematically eliminated. It just means in the millions of times I played out the season the team never made the playoffs. Likewise for "In".
• The code could have bugs. The nice thing is the numbers are broken down such that bugs don’t stay hidden long. If you find a new one I’ll buy you a beer. Domestic. Milwaukee’s Best, Schaefer, something like that.

t has 2 limitations:

The first is mostly a technicality. On the NHL Playoff Chances page I show odds for getting each seed. If I could run the simulation for an infinite number of seasons you likely would see a few extra 0's show up under seeds that previously where blank. You usually don't care, those new 0's are 1 in a million long shots, but you can't use the site to say a team is mathematically in or out. When the page shows "In" or "Out" it just means the simulation never found a case where they missed/made the playoffs.

The second limitation is important. I play each remaining game by flipping a coin.* The 50/50 version uses a true coin. Not very accurate. The weighted version uses a loaded coin. THIS IS THE KEY: If I magically knew the precise value to load each game's coin then every number on the site (the odds, the big games, the what ifs) would be perfectly accurate. But I can't know that, so for now I load each game's coin based on the 2 opponent's records.** Errors creep in when a team's true current strength is different from what their record implies. You have to read the numbers with this in mind. To take an extreme example, the Blues "chance will make playoffs" graph probably dips too low mid-season, because the system does not factor in injuries. If I were a Blues fan mid season I might say "these players are coming back, I bet they will give us X extra points in the second half of the season. I'm going to adjust Sports Club Stats numbers by looking X points higher up the "What If" table.

OK, but, again, how accurate is it?

I don't know yet. I find it accurate enough to be a useful, interesting tool. The more I use it the more it surprises me with unexpected results that turn out to make sense.

Detail overload:

* For hockey I also give each game a 22% chance of going into OT (22ish percent of games went into OT in 2007-2008). And I randomly give the winner between 1-5 goals and the loser something less. I care about goals because it is one of the tiebreakers. Finally, for the weighted version I give the home team a 4% boost in their chance of winning, to match the league average. (Other leagues have their own values for ot/tie probability, typical points scored per game, and home field advantage.)

** For many sports it is actually based on each opponent's goals delta because, on average, that is a more accurate reflection of a team's true strength. And it applies a mathematical trick called "regression towards the mean" to give less credence to records early in the season when few games have been played. To "load the coin" it uses a mathematical trick called log5 to turn the 2 team "records" into the chance that the home team will win the game.

Thanks for the info. Definitely is very interesting and I like the methods. I know the numbers tend to work out but I also know when you are actually in a playoff race as a player you don't look that far ahead. If we can win 2 games and they drop 2 games we are right back in it. As a player you hope to win a game or two and then re-asses the situation. That's all you can do. One other thing it doesn't calculate is that say we do win a couple and all other teams lose a couple. The closer we get the more pressure falls on the other teams. You go from thinking as a player that "hey, we should make it", to "oh shoot, if we don't win our next game we're in trouble. One other problem I forsee is that the other teams play each other meaning at least one of those teams are getting two points in that game, so it's a guaranteed win situation for someone. Worse yet, the possibility of OT in one of those games is a real killer.

Edit: In addition, the cominbation of Dallas Phoenix, Winnipeg, and Minny play against each other in 5 games before the end of the season meaning you can already chalk up 5 guaranteed wins somewhere in that grouping.

Having said that this team has mentally exhausted me. I need some rest anyway.

[Canuckseeesh]

We basically need 1 team to really slip and looking at some of the teams schedules it could happen.

LA is currently on a 3 games losing streak. They play CAPS X2, FLA, PHI, PITS in their next 5.

It’s not that realistic but not impossible, Caps are on a 3 game winning streak,

if LA could go 1-4 or 0-5 they would be at 82 or 84 points with 74 games played.

If canucks win their next 3 that would put us 2-4 points behind the kings with only 1 game in hand and 7 games remaining. We also play the kings April 5th. We could we catch them.

MIN, similar to the kings situation, Wild play NJ, DET x2, VAN, STL

MIN could go 1-4 or 0-5 they would be at 82 or 84 points with 74 games played

Once again if canucks win their next 3 that would put us 2-4 points behind the Wild with only 1 game in hand and 7 games remaining.

PHX likely has the hardest next 5 games FLA, BOS, NYR, PITS, NJ

We need to count on or old goalies to come up big and hope PHX goes 1-4 or 0-5.

If they do they’d only be at 77-79 points with 74 games played

Once again if canucks win their next 3 that would put us 1-3 “AHEAD” of the coyotes with only 1 game in hand and 7 games remaining

DAL is also cold and had a few rough games getting pummelled back to back, their next 5 they face PHI, OTT, WPG, CHI, NSH

Stars could go 1-4 or 2-3 they would be at 77 or 79 points with 74 games played

Once again if canucks win their next 3 that would put us 1-3 “AHEAD” of the stars with only 2 games in hand and 7 games remaining.

We also need to remember that they have a postpone game to finished where they will start the second period down by a goal.

The other thing to remember is all the teams play each other at least once more in their remaining 7 games, it is important that those games do not go into OT and it will guarantee a loss for one of those teams a game canucks will need to take advantage of.

Other things to note

Luongo plays PHX, DAL, and LA yet this year

Schneider plays PHX and MIN yes this year

Could our old goalies do us a favor and help us out?

The likely hood the canucks make the playoffs is slim, but no one could deny the excitement if they pulled off a miracle and did, especially if they go in hot. Anyone who says they want the team to lose the rest of the games would be right back on the bandwagon, once again cheering for this team to win. I’m not guaranteeing canucks make playoffs but, there’s still a chance. I’d rather look foolish believing/hoping in something with the odds stack against us, than to look foolish by writing a team off and have them prove me wrong and embarrassingly hop back on the cheering train.

End of story.

thank you this is exactly what i've been pointing out. While I don't think it's entirely stupid to be throwing out those percentages and the "We lose 1 game we're out" statement, hockey isn't always like that. Like you said if one team slips and goes on a drastic losing streak of lets say 5 games and we get on a roll... the percentages change. We aren't out just yet.

[BenDrinkin]

It absolutely boggles the mind that fans would come on here and just continuously spread hate and negativity. Like, guys, get on with your lives, check up on the final standings, and forget about them until next year. Why are people so empty that they need to try to bring others down? It's pretty sad.

This fan base is an complete embarrassment, on so many levels. From the lack of support for any given goalie, to tankers crying when we win. Why are so many of you addicted to being upset and bitter? Just go away, count to ten, and come back next year.

:-D

[D-Money]

LOL!

Sums it up perfectly.

[Ryan kesler the beast]

We basically need 1 team to really slip and looking at some of the teams schedules it could happen.

LA is currently on a 3 games losing streak. They play CAPS X2, FLA, PHI, PITS in their next 5.

Its not that realistic but not impossible, Caps are on a 3 game winning streak,

if LA could go 1-4 or 0-5 they would be at 82 or 84 points with 74 games played.

If canucks win their next 3 that would put us 2-4 points behind the kings with only 1 game in hand and 7 games remaining. We also play the kings April 5th. We could we catch them.

MIN, similar to the kings situation, Wild play NJ, DET x2, VAN, STL

MIN could go 1-4 or 0-5 they would be at 82 or 84 points with 74 games played

Once again if canucks win their next 3 that would put us 2-4 points behind the Wild with only 1 game in hand and 7 games remaining.

PHX likely has the hardest next 5 games FLA, BOS, NYR, PITS, NJ

We need to count on or old goalies to come up big and hope PHX goes 1-4 or 0-5.

If they do theyd only be at 77-79 points with 74 games played

Once again if canucks win their next 3 that would put us 1-3 AHEAD of the coyotes with only 1 game in hand and 7 games remaining

DAL is also cold and had a few rough games getting pummelled back to back, their next 5 they face PHI, OTT, WPG, CHI, NSH

Stars could go 1-4 or 2-3 they would be at 77 or 79 points with 74 games played

Once again if canucks win their next 3 that would put us 1-3 AHEAD of the stars with only 2 games in hand and 7 games remaining.

We also need to remember that they have a postpone game to finished where they will start the second period down by a goal.

The other thing to remember is all the teams play each other at least once more in their remaining 7 games, it is important that those games do not go into OT and it will guarantee a loss for one of those teams a game canucks will need to take advantage of.

Other things to note

Luongo plays PHX, DAL, and LA yet this year

Schneider plays PHX and MIN yes this year

Could our old goalies do us a favor and help us out?

The likely hood the canucks make the playoffs is slim, but no one could deny the excitement if they pulled off a miracle and did, especially if they go in hot. Anyone who says they want the team to lose the rest of the games would be right back on the bandwagon, once again cheering for this team to win. Im not guaranteeing canucks make playoffs but, theres still a chance. Id rather look foolish believing/hoping in something with the odds stack against us, than to look foolish by writing a team off and have them prove me wrong and embarrassingly hop back on the cheering train.

End of story.

Nice post! And the kings went on a 7 game losing streak earlier this season I believe! So anything is possible! The fact we could get kesler or Daniel or even both next week helps

[5Fivehole0]

Just wondering if you could point me to the logic that allows you to assign quantifiable values to categorical items.

Well, according to everyone who wants us to tank, we have less than a 2% chance to make the play-offs, I didn't assign any %'s to anything. That is what others said.

I said 0% chance of purposefully tanking because these are professional athletes who go out every night to win. No matter what.

So no need to try and play the educational ego card, I was actually taking a shot at people who put a % on our teams ability to make the play-offs.

[JiffyPB]

I think this roster is missing some key pieces in Santorelli, Daniel Sedin etc. I think that a full line up with all players out of their slump could easily beat Anaheim, St Louis, Chicago, etc...

All you people are jumping off the Canuck band wagon so fast. You guys actually believe we are worse than Florida, Edmonton, and Calgary. But last December we were the best team in the NHL. Bad streaks happen, I think the Canucks just had no puck luck this year, and the loss of Santorelli was bigger than people thought. He was .6 points per game, that's a lot to lose when you think about it. He also freed up Kesler to be more offensive.

I for one am very much so looking forward to the possibility of a Stanley Cup next year. All you people screaming 5 year rebuild are bonkers.

We have huge amount of cap space to sign the likes of Vanek, Callahan etc. We have Jensen who looks like great offensively and defensively out there. Lack, despite some struggles still looks very solid.

I don't understand why people seem to think that this team is going to be a bottom of the barrel team. This team still has a lot left in the tank. The Sedins are going to bounce back next year and already are. A lot of what was happening was confidence, look at the swagger Henrik has again, he is confident in his abilities therefore is making the great plays he knows he can.

TL;DR The Canucks aren't nearly as bad as you guys say.

1. Santorelli won't come back, Daniel and Kesler are weeks away and probably won't play 100% for a while. The team would have to go flawless without them and even when they were healthy this team wasn't exactly the cream of the crop. The team can't get worse, but it won't be good enough.

2. I didn't exactly jump off the wagon or proclaim they are worse than those teams, but honestly does this team belong with the likes of the Ducks, Hawks, Avs, etc or do they belong in the same class as the Jets, Preds, Canes, etc. The standings speak for themselves.

3. A healthy Henrik freed up Kesler to be offensive. Kes was playing 25ish minutes a night and looked utterly gassed when Henrik was out. Less minutes for Kesler = fresher Kesler = more scoring.

4. Canucks could rebound next year but at the same time they could also suck. A higher impact NHL ready pick would make this team significantly better but you are against tanking to attain such an asset over delusional hopes of making the playoffs. Yup, people who want such as player are stupid and clearly aren't real fans because they are concerned about the long term state of this team. Let's hope they keep winning in a doomed season because we could all use a "missed the playoffs but played well down the stretch" moral victory

5.The Sedins are old. When healthy they are barely PPG players and are simply CRYING OUT for secondary scoring. We had NO secondary scoring for 2 straight playoffs and we only have playoff win on the road for a reason. Celebrate responsibly my butt. How are we even supposed to celebrate anything when we can't even win a home playoff game over 2 years. They will bounce back to a 70-80 point range, but they are not the players they were 3 years ago and aren't good enough to get the job done by themselves. Again, tanking would get us a player that would help with this nagging issue.

6.Three off-seasons from now the Sedins will be 36, Garrison/Kesler 32, Edler 31, Bieksa 36, and Hamhuis 34. This is not a young core. They will not get any better than they were last season. You could rebuild on the fly now when you have the opportunity to making trades that get you players like horvat/tanking when you have the chance, or you could wait until this team needs a REAL rebuild a la Buffalo style in 3 years. Make moves while they have value or prepare to have a team that REALLY sucks bad in the future.

7. lol Vanek or any big FA in general coming here. He could get a bag of cash anywhere and why would he wanna come here with the giant gong-show going on starring our looney coach and dumb GM. Two years ago Detroit had a bucket load of cap space and couldn't sign ONE big defenseman on the market because they were viewed as a "declining team." Vanek knows about the Luongo saga too and I'm sure he loves blocking shots...

8. This team has little left in the tank. If they suck next year and look like a non-playoff team with their top players healthy they absolutely need a rebuild.

[Ryan kesler the beast]

1. Santorelli won't come back, Daniel and Kesler are weeks away and probably won't play 100% for a while. The team would have to go flawless without them and even when they were healthy this team wasn't exactly the cream of the crop. The team can't get worse, but it won't be good enough.

2. I didn't exactly jump off the wagon or proclaim they are worse than those teams, but honestly does this team belong with the likes of the Ducks, Hawks, Avs, etc or do they belong in the same class as the Jets, Preds, Canes, etc. The standings speak for themselves.

3. A healthy Henrik freed up Kesler to be offensive. Kes was playing 25ish minutes a night and looked utterly gassed when Henrik was out. Less minutes for Kesler = fresher Kesler = more scoring.

4. Canucks could rebound next year but at the same time they could also suck. A higher impact NHL ready pick would make this team significantly better but you are against tanking to attain such an asset over delusional hopes of making the playoffs. Yup, people who want such as player are stupid and clearly aren't real fans because they are concerned about the long term state of this team. Let's hope they keep winning in a doomed season because we could all use a "missed the playoffs but played well down the stretch" moral victory

5.The Sedins are old. When healthy they are barely PPG players and are simply CRYING OUT for secondary scoring. We had NO secondary scoring for 2 straight playoffs and we only have playoff win on the road for a reason. Celebrate responsibly my butt. How are we even supposed to celebrate anything when we can't even win a home playoff game over 2 years. They will bounce back to a 70-80 point range, but they are not the players they were 3 years ago and aren't good enough to get the job done by themselves. Again, tanking would get us a player that would help with this nagging issue.

6.Three off-seasons from now the Sedins will be 36, Garrison/Kesler 32, Edler 31, Bieksa 36, and Hamhuis 34. This is not a young core. They will not get any better than they were last season. You could rebuild on the fly now when you have the opportunity to making trades that get you players like horvat/tanking when you have the chance, or you could wait until this team needs a REAL rebuild a la Buffalo style in 3 years. Make moves while they have value or prepare to have a team that REALLY sucks bad in the future.

7. lol Vanek or any big FA in general coming here. He could get a bag of cash anywhere and why would he wanna come here with the giant gong-show going on starring our looney coach and dumb GM. Two years ago Detroit had a bucket load of cap space and couldn't sign ONE big defenseman on the market because they were viewed as a "declining team." Vanek knows about the Luongo saga too and I'm sure he loves blocking shots...

8. This team has little left in the tank. If they suck next year and look like a non-playoff team with their top players healthy they absolutely need a rebuild.

Farhan Lalji ‏@FarhanLaljiTSN

@B00M91 @gt261 @elvispocomo Yes it could be Daniel that returns first. Both are skating, but I had heard Kes was a little closer

Kesler could be back as early as next week, same with Daniel

[5Fivehole0]

2. I didn't exactly jump off the wagon or proclaim they are worse than those teams, but honestly does this team belong with the likes of the Ducks, Hawks, Avs, etc or do they belong in the same class as the Jets, Preds, Canes, etc. The standings speak for themselves.

4. Canucks could rebound next year but at the same time they could also suck. A higher impact NHL ready pick would make this team significantly better but you are against tanking to attain such an asset over delusional hopes of making the playoffs. Yup, people who want such as player are stupid and clearly aren't real fans because they are concerned about the long term state of this team. Let's hope they keep winning in a doomed season because we could all use a "missed the playoffs but played well down the stretch" moral victory

5.The Sedins are old. When healthy they are barely PPG players and are simply CRYING OUT for secondary scoring. We had NO secondary scoring for 2 straight playoffs and we only have playoff win on the road for a reason. Celebrate responsibly my butt. How are we even supposed to celebrate anything when we can't even win a home playoff game over 2 years. They will bounce back to a 70-80 point range, but they are not the players they were 3 years ago and aren't good enough to get the job done by themselves. Again, tanking would get us a player that would help with this nagging issue.

6.Three off-seasons from now the Sedins will be 36, Garrison/Kesler 32, Edler 31, Bieksa 36, and Hamhuis 34. This is not a young core. They will not get any better than they were last season. You could rebuild on the fly now when you have the opportunity to making trades that get you players like horvat/tanking when you have the chance, or you could wait until this team needs a REAL rebuild a la Buffalo style in 3 years. Make moves while they have value or prepare to have a team that REALLY sucks bad in the future.

7. lol Vanek or any big FA in general coming here. He could get a bag of cash anywhere and why would he wanna come here with the giant gong-show going on starring our looney coach and dumb GM. Vanek knows about the Luongo saga too and I'm sure he loves blocking shots...

8. This team has little left in the tank. If they suck next year and look like a non-playoff team with their top players healthy they absolutely need a rebuild.

I'll respond in corresponding numbers

2. This team can quite easily be in the ranks of the Hawks/Ducks etc. I don't see how you can't see that. They are a few key pieces away from being contenders... A top 6 sniper, who we just called up... Jensen is his name I think.

Burrows Hank Jensen

Dank Kesler UFA

Higgins Matthias Santorelli/Kass

Hansen Richardson Kassian/Santo

If that isn't a cup Team I don't know what is.

3. I'm not saying try to make the play-offs, I'm saying that this team, nor any team in the NHL will purposefully throw games to get a draft pick. If you have ever played sports competitively, can you say you have ever purposefully lost a game?? I can't... I played Tendy for a horrible team and I knew we were going to lose to the team we were playing... But not once did we have just let them walk through us, we played our hardest and I managed to hold them to 1 goal for 2 1/2 periods. We lost 3-1, but we didn't just roll over.. No one who is competitive will ever purposefully tank. EVER. That's what you guys don't get. So start cheering for your team and stop being upset when someone is stoked we won.

4. Why is it so delusional to want to make the play-offs next year?? Sign 1 or 2 bonafide top 6 players and we are easily contenders... What is delusional is hoping your team finishes last so they can get McDavid... Because Ovechkin has carried the caps to how many cups?? How many Conference Championships??? Yea, exactly.

5. The Sedins are not OLD, they are aging, they are still in the low 30's and have 2-3 80point + seasons left in them. 1 bad season does not equate to being bad. You guys did the same with Luongo and now look, he has better stats than Cory AND Lack. Stop with this crap. I do think that Daniels concussion has probably hurt him a little bit more but he's still a very good player, and can probably compliment our 2nd line extremely well.

6. 3 off seasons from now is not next season, lots can happen before then. I also don't expect Garrison, Hamhuis etc to be here by then. I don't believe all their contracts go till then, though I may be wrong. We will probably have Corrado, Subban, Sauve, and maybe sign some bonafide #1 D man by then. That's a long ways away and I don't have a crystal ball. Too much speculation.

7. We have a lot of cap space coming up this off season and could easily throw Vanek around 7 million. Yea you have to pay him a lot but he could be a key piece. Callahan is another guy we could offer a lot of money.. You just have to be willing to pay them more than the other guy...

8. We will see next year, and things will probably happen in this off season. But I doubt you see a full rebuild of this team... More likely our younger players get bigger roles.

[canuktravella]

Funny post bro We have a bunch of other players signed did they magically dissapear (higgins, burrows, booth, hansen, mattias)

Mattias is a good addition big body only 26 entering prime signed at a cheap 1.75 mill

Higgins is signed cheap for a 20 goal scorer plus hes decent 2way player

Burrows has a high salary isnt being bought out and when hes healthy hes decent 2way player

Hansen should be traded go young kenins will replace him on 3rd line hes is signed cheap for 2 yrs at 680k

Booth will be bought out or traded

Kesler needs to be packaged for young c and a 1st and a mid prospect

ok then let's not even say 5 "in a row". lets say out of the remaining 10 games we win AT LEAST 5 and the teams i mentioned go 3-5, 4-5 respectively. now we're in a position where we have 5 games, alongside phx and dallas to make a run for the playoffs. But my point in this thread isn't to say that we're guaranteed a spot in the playoffs or even that we will make it, but instead that as fans we should always root for this team to succeed. cause honestly while a high spot in the draft is nice, it all comes down to scouting and how well we can draft players. they're just numbers and projections. furthermore for everyone asking for a rebuild well have a look at our roster assuming we do a rebuld...

Sedin(lock) - Sedin(lock) - vacant.

(vacant) - Kesler(lock/trade) - vacant

Kassian(lock) - vacant - vacant.

vacant - Richardson/Dalpe/Santo - vacant.

Hamhuis(lock) - Bieksa(lock)

Edler(lock/trade) - Garrison(lock)

Tanev(lock) - vacant

Lack/UFA

Markstrom/UFA/Lack

for all those vacant spots we already have so many players in minors that can fill in for defense, Corrado, Sauve, Stanton, as for the 7 open forward spots we have Horvat, Gaunce, Jensen, Shinkaruk, Schroeder, Lain, Archibald, Fox. So as you can we can fill our lineup with rookies next year if we wanted but the thing is... obviously we need veteran presence and we'll be making UFA signings therefore we can expect only 3-4 openings for a forward position, 1-2 spots for the d and yeah. the goal shouldn't be to tank just so we get a high pick but instead

1. Try and make playoffs

2. Scout well so our position in draft won't matter too much

3. If possible trade assets such as Kesler and or Edler for a good package of prospect/pick/player

cause honestly, at best even if we tanked we could probably get a projected top 3-6 forward or top 4 dman but do we need that? yes it would help but i don't mind our future top line or dpairing being something along the lines of

Shinkaruk - Horvat - Jensen

Tanev-Corrado

[Rollieo Del Fuego]

see that's what i don't understand cause lets assume we win the next 5 games going 5-0

our record 77 gp and 84 points

and at the same time PHX goes 3-5 losing the 5 against, nyr, njd, bos, fla, pit

record 77 gp and 83 points

DAL goes 4-5 losing against losing against, PHI, OTT, WSH, CAR, TAMPA

record 77 gp and 83 points

doesn't this mean we're in the race?

My Reply: (not sure what I did wrong to have it come up like this)

Ask me 5 games from now.

Without Kesler, Sedin, Tanev, Santo's and with Edler in his current state, Stanton struggling to regain his form and nothing from Garrison...you may be able to ask me in 3 games, all depends on Jensen and Kassian in my mind.

If Jensen can keep it up Kassian will have no choice but to buckle down and continue to raise his game and his hockey sense.

[JiffyPB]

I'll respond in corresponding numbers

2. This team can quite easily be in the ranks of the Hawks/Ducks etc. I don't see how you can't see that. They are a few key pieces away from being contenders... A top 6 sniper, who we just called up... Jensen is his name I think.

Burrows Hank Jensen

Dank Kesler UFA

Higgins Matthias Santorelli/Kass

Hansen Richardson Kassian/Santo

If that isn't a cup Team I don't know what is.

3. I'm not saying try to make the play-offs, I'm saying that this team, nor any team in the NHL will purposefully throw games to get a draft pick. If you have ever played sports competitively, can you say you have ever purposefully lost a game?? I can't... I played Tendy for a horrible team and I knew we were going to lose to the team we were playing... But not once did we have just let them walk through us, we played our hardest and I managed to hold them to 1 goal for 2 1/2 periods. We lost 3-1, but we didn't just roll over.. No one who is competitive will ever purposefully tank. EVER. That's what you guys don't get. So start cheering for your team and stop being upset when someone is stoked we won.

4. Why is it so delusional to want to make the play-offs next year?? Sign 1 or 2 bonafide top 6 players and we are easily contenders... What is delusional is hoping your team finishes last so they can get McDavid... Because Ovechkin has carried the caps to how many cups?? How many Conference Championships??? Yea, exactly.

5. The Sedins are not OLD, they are aging, they are still in the low 30's and have 2-3 80point + seasons left in them. 1 bad season does not equate to being bad. You guys did the same with Luongo and now look, he has better stats than Cory AND Lack. Stop with this crap. I do think that Daniels concussion has probably hurt him a little bit more but he's still a very good player, and can probably compliment our 2nd line extremely well.

6. 3 off seasons from now is not next season, lots can happen before then. I also don't expect Garrison, Hamhuis etc to be here by then. I don't believe all their contracts go till then, though I may be wrong. We will probably have Corrado, Subban, Sauve, and maybe sign some bonafide #1 D man by then. That's a long ways away and I don't have a crystal ball. Too much speculation.

7. We have a lot of cap space coming up this off season and could easily throw Vanek around 7 million. Yea you have to pay him a lot but he could be a key piece. Callahan is another guy we could offer a lot of money.. You just have to be willing to pay them more than the other guy...

8. We will see next year, and things will probably happen in this off season. But I doubt you see a full rebuild of this team... More likely our younger players get bigger roles.

1. Jensen is a developing player. He will help, but he's a bit of a wild card next season. I could see him in the NHL next season, but I could also see him spend next year in the AHL with Gaunce, Shinkaruk and Fox.

2. Speaking of young players LOOK at what ONE young player has done for this team. All CDC does now is fawn over Jensen and label him as a sniper that we need. THIS is what having young impact players does to your team. This is why it is in this organization's interests to get more of these kind of players. Not making the playoffs accomplishes this and frankly they will not make the playoffs.

3.We have had good teams on paper before and we have had one win to show for over 2 years. Toronto has firepower like that too but they always look like they are either a serious contender or being on the verge of imploding at any given moment due to lack of consistency.

4. I never said they purposely will lose games. The "tanking" has been done by losing hard this year and not acquiring any rentals at the deadline to make this team any better. Players never lose intentionally, it would ruin the integrity of the game. All I'm saying is that it is pointless to hope they make the playoffs when it is abundantly clear they will not. They will and should end up with a high pick because this team desperately needs it. If management thought this was a playoff team, they would have gotten someone to help and refused to trade Luongo at the deadline even if he did want out. Management's actions speak louder than their words. They intend on picking high this draft.

5. I never said it was delusional to make the playoffs NEXT year. Only this year it's delusional. This team needs to reassess and go into next season ready to win. If they aren't a winning team by the next trade deadline, rebuild.

6. It's true that getting a star player doesn't guarantee a cup, but the Caps positioned themselves in such a way that they will still have long term success. How long do the Sedins realistically have compared to a star entering his prime. They also added a young talented centerman in Kuznetsov, who owned us in our last meeting. THAT is what a young impact player can do.

7. I never said the Sedins were bad. I just said they won't be much better than they were in the shortened season. We need serious secondary scoring to support them from now on or this team will be spinning its tires in the mud. Most players start declining around 36 and it's not far-fetched to think the Sedins will as well.

8. You're right, anything can happen but those players aren't exactly getting younger. That was the point I was trying to make. We could go into a rebuild or we could be a serious contender. It is too early to tell how next season will go. There are too many variables to make a serious prediction.

9. You ignored what I said about cap space. You can throw Vanek a bag of cash, but if he doesn't wanna come here he won't. I pointed out Detroit had a lot of cap space and was willing to do anything to get Suter, Garrison, Wideman, Weber, or Schultz but ended up with none of them because they all didn't want to go to Detroit. Why would any FA wanna come here with all of the drama going on and the fact they could get that money from a lot of other teams who are in a better position to get a cup?

[Canuckseeesh]

Funny post bro We have a bunch of other players signed did they magically dissapear (higgins, burrows, booth, hansen, mattias)

Mattias is a good addition big body only 26 entering prime signed at a cheap 1.75 mill

Higgins is signed cheap for a 20 goal scorer plus hes decent 2way player

Burrows has a high salary isnt being bought out and when hes healthy hes decent 2way player

Hansen should be traded go young kenins will replace him on 3rd line hes is signed cheap for 2 yrs at 680k

Booth will be bought out or traded

Kesler needs to be packaged for young c and a 1st and a mid prospect

I made this post to show that 1 draft pick in this draft won't be a big deal or not in order for us to inject youth or rebuild (because like i said we can fill our roster with all rookies if you want to assuming all those players get traded/bought out/don't play etc but like you said is unlikely because there are players with contracts therefore only having 3-4 spots open for a rookie to take) tanking shouldn't be the first option to rebuild but instead trade declining assets such as kesler for youth.

and what kind of gets to me is that everyone is saying we should tank so we can get a high draft pick... do you honestly think the players purposely want to lose just because it'll please you guys? seriously they're all professionals and will play to win every game so at the end of the day don't get your hopes up drafting at 6 or something. i'd rather draft 13ish(not bad considering a guy like Karlsson went 15th) and have a chance to play in the playoffs where anything can happen than draft 6-8 just to get a "potential" top 4 dman or top 6 forward that won't even contribute to the lineup until 2-3 years later due to the log jam and not play. And at the end of the day all you guys(bandwagoners wanting to tank) will just criticize the young guy. sound familiar?(we should've drafted nichushkin instead of bo) man....

[D-Money]

Even though I'm certain the Canucks won't make it, I'm not a proponent of "tanking" either.

At this point, they weren't getting a top-5 pick anyways, so there's not a whole lot of difference in going up or down a few positions.

In 2004, instead of Cory Schneider at #26, would we have been better with Al Montoya, Rostislav Olesz, Alexandre Picard, Ladislav Smid, Boris Valabik, Lauri Tukonen, or A.J. Thelen going forward? Those were picks 6-12.

Or in 2008, when we missed the playoffs and drafted Hodgson - would we really have been better off losing MORE games and getting Luke Schenn, Nikita Filatov, Colin Wilson, Mikkel Boedker, or Josh Bailey? (#s 5-9). Even though we had our problems with Hodgson and had to trade him, he's still a better player than any of those alternatives.

I think it's better as an organization to try to win. Circumstances conspired against us this year, but going out with honour will do far more than picking a couple spots sooner at the draft.

[Hammerhead]

No tanking , play for pride and let the chips fall where they may . Everyone seems to be on the Jensen bandwagon and where did we pick him , 29th overall. The boys string a few wins together combined with Dallas and Phoenix losing a few , stranger things have happened.

[5Fivehole0]

No tanking , play for pride and let the chips fall where they may . Everyone seems to be on the Jensen bandwagon and where did we pick him , 29th overall. The boys string a few wins together combined with Dallas and Phoenix losing a few , stranger things have happened.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

[Quoted]

Odds of making the playoffs: 14.22111225586457%

Odds of coming close and just missing: 23.111245556577%

Odds that all these odds are meaningless: 100%

Odds that no matter what happens, there will be complaining on CDC: 100%

[5Fivehole0]

Odds of making the playoffs: 14.22111225586457%

Odds of coming close and just missing: 23.111245556577%

Odds that all these odds are meaningless: 100%

Odds that no matter what happens, there will be complaining on CDC: 100%

My favourite thing is when people say we have such low odds...

Do they not know the odds of them even being born??? It happens yo.

[Mackcanuck]

DAL Lost-

NJD Won-

DET Won-

OTT Lost-

Need FLA to beat PHX in Regulation

Go Lou Go!

[Lui's Knob]

Canucks have 10 games left; 3 PTs back. Tanev sedin and Kesler all out and rookie goalies...

Oh and Dallas has 4 games on hand.

Not happening . Start fresh next year; trade Kesler for youth and get nugent Hopkins to man the future 1st line