Canucks not out yet

[THERETOOL]

Canucks have 10 games left; 3 PTs back. Tanev sedin and Kesler all out and rookie goalies...

Oh and Dallas has 4 games on hand.

Not happening . Start fresh next year; trade Kesler for youth and get nugent Hopkins to man the future 1st line

i wish ... never gonna happen ... kes will make it difficult .. you watch .. he will give them 2 different teams and gillis will say that it was the best he could do

[Absent Canuck]

Even though I'm certain the Canucks won't make it, I'm not a proponent of "tanking" either.

At this point, they weren't getting a top-5 pick anyways, so there's not a whole lot of difference in going up or down a few positions.

In 2004, instead of Cory Schneider at #26, would we have been better with Al Montoya, Rostislav Olesz, Alexandre Picard, Ladislav Smid, Boris Valabik, Lauri Tukonen, or A.J. Thelen going forward? Those were picks 6-12.

Or in 2008, when we missed the playoffs and drafted Hodgson - would we really have been better off losing MORE games and getting Luke Schenn, Nikita Filatov, Colin Wilson, Mikkel Boedker, or Josh Bailey? (#s 5-9). Even though we had our problems with Hodgson and had to trade him, he's still a better player than any of those alternatives.

I think it's better as an organization to try to win. Circumstances conspired against us this year, but going out with honour will do far more than picking a couple spots sooner at the draft.

I appreciate the logic but you are cherry picking the spin you are using to justify it. According to you , drafting lower doesnt matter because of some hindsight logic.

If thats the case, lets trade down every draft right? Tank to get a higher pick, then trade down to get an extra second rounder since it doesnt matter where you draft right?

For example, the Canucks super tanked the last several games and then relied on tie breakers to draft 10th in 2008.

Using your logic we could have won that last game Trevor played instead of bombing 7-1 , drafted 11th and ended up getting Kyle Beach.

Lets not get into cherry picked hindsight logic. The fact is sweating to win games when we have no chance to make the playoffs might be a little more exciting in the short term , but we end up with a worse pick and that will end up making a difference in the long run.

[Absent Canuck]

Odds of making the playoffs: 14.22111225586457%

Odds of coming close and just missing: 23.111245556577%

Odds that all these odds are meaningless: 100%

Odds that no matter what happens, there will be complaining on CDC: 100%

Sport stat club gives a 2% chance.

But I understand your meaning.

[D-Money]

I appreciate the logic but you are cherry picking the spin you are using to justify it. According to you , drafting lower doesnt matter because of some hindsight logic.

If thats the case, lets trade down every draft right? Tank to get a higher pick, then trade down to get an extra second rounder since it doesnt matter where you draft right?

For example, the Canucks super tanked the last several games and then relied on tie breakers to draft 10th in 2008.

Using your logic we could have won that last game Trevor played instead of bombing 7-1 , drafted 11th and ended up getting Kyle Beach.

Lets not get into cherry picked hindsight logic. The fact is sweating to win games when we have no chance to make the playoffs might be a little more exciting in the short term , but we end up with a worse pick and that will end up making a difference in the long run.

If a player doesn't have enough pride, self-respect, and respect for the team he plays for to try to win every game... That is a player who you will never win the cup with.

If packing it in is an option now, it will also be an option when the fatigue and pain from a long playoff run hits him like a brick wall. If he is programmed to allow for excuses, then he will make excuses.

I personally don't want anyone on the team to accept losing. And I certainly don't want any of our players to learn that via direction from coaching or management. If that happens, it won't matter how much skill you have - it will still be a team of losers (see: The Edmonton Oilers).

That is what I meant. Losing a few spots at the draft COULD hurt you, but not near as much as teaching your team to be losers.

[Dragonfruits]

Coyotes win 5 points ahead 2 games in hand

[THERETOOL]

Coyotes win 5 points ahead 2 games in hand

dont worry .. canucks will win their remaining games , miss the playoffs , and pick 11th

[Dragonfruits]

not like the Canucks are getting help for teams moving up on us Ottawa Nashville and Carolina all losing got teams like Edmonton Buffalo and Calgary winning a couple games but they aren't moving out of the top 5

Canucks are pretty much stuck picking 10th not 11th because of NJ 1st round penalty

[TheXFactor]

Impossible? No. Improbable? Yes.

There's a fine line between hoping and being stupid. Then again sometimes you got to be stupid for good things to happen.

Some people would rather we tank to get a "better" draft pick. Others believe we should spend the last few games developing our younger players (kind of whats happening since we already stuck Jensen on the first line). And then some people have a firm belief that we can make a comeback.

Point is that any argument for whats left of the season is reasonably justified.

[people please]

We stil not out.

[CanucksCaptain]

If there's a team that we might catch, it's the Wild. Their schedule looks a lot tougher than Coyotes'. If we can somehow win the next 5 out of 6 games (beating Wild in one of them), we'll have 84 points with 78 games played. The next 8 games for the Wild is:

Det

Det

Van

Stl

Phx

LA

Chi

Pit

I can see them maybe beating Det once and maybe getting a OT point and that would give them 86 points with 78 games played as well. We will be just 2 points behind with both have 4 remaining games. There might still be a chance. I know it's not looking good but maybe we can do this.

[Ryan kesler the beast]

If there's a team that we might catch, it's the Wild. Their schedule looks a lot tougher than Coyotes'. If we can somehow win the next 5 out of 6 games (beating Wild in one of them), we'll have 84 points with 78 games played. The next 8 games for the Wild is:

Det

Det

Van

Stl

Phx

LA

Chi

Pit

I can see them maybe beating Det once and maybe getting a OT point and that would give them 86 points with 78 games played as well. We will be just 2 points behind with both have 4 remaining games. There might still be a chance. I know it's not looking good but maybe we can do this.

Throw in the fact coyotes are playing really tough teams coming up! We have 2 teams we can catch as boston hawks and etc should beat them

[Mikey795]

Sorry, but we're talking cloud cuckoo land here.

Okay, it's not over 'til it's really over. But, to all intents and purposes, it's over.

The best the Canucks can do before they hit the golf course is gain some perspective on where they are, and maybe dig themselves out of their rut sufficiently to salvage some pride prior to the 2014-2015 season.

Torts has taken a beating on these boards, and unjustly so. Considerably so!

But, MG? Well, despite all the posturing about "player development" when he first took office here (maybe he should really have said "goalie-development", because that's just about the only item of ANY substance at all that has occurred during his reign) let's hope he does something worthwhile this off-season! No, I'm sorry, let's DEMAND he does something worthwhile this off-season, or alternatively Fly Off!

As my good friend Forrest would say, "that's all i have to say about that!"

[5Fivehole0]

If there's a team that we might catch, it's the Wild. Their schedule looks a lot tougher than Coyotes'. If we can somehow win the next 5 out of 6 games (beating Wild in one of them), we'll have 84 points with 78 games played. The next 8 games for the Wild is:

Det

Det

Van

Stl

Phx

LA

Chi

Pit

I can see them maybe beating Det once and maybe getting a OT point and that would give them 86 points with 78 games played as well. We will be just 2 points behind with both have 4 remaining games. There might still be a chance. I know it's not looking good but maybe we can do this.

Great post, we are all chasing the yotes and dallas, when really... we can catch Minnie

[slappipappi]

What is really interesting is both Dallas and Pheonox play each other in their final game of the season...that at least helps Canucks if one loses in regulation...

When you need a number of teams to lose who are in front of you, it doesn't help when those teams play each other. One has to win, and the Canucks need to gain on everyone.

[slappipappi]

If there's a team that we might catch, it's the Wild. Their schedule looks a lot tougher than Coyotes'. If we can somehow win the next 5 out of 6 games (beating Wild in one of them), we'll have 84 points with 78 games played. The next 8 games for the Wild is:

Det

Det

Van

Stl

Phx

LA

Chi

Pit

I can see them maybe beating Det once and maybe getting a OT point and that would give them 86 points with 78 games played as well. We will be just 2 points behind with both have 4 remaining games. There might still be a chance. I know it's not looking good but maybe we can do this.

If Vancouver ends up with 90 points (going 8-2), Minny needs to finish 3-8-1 to tie the Canucks.

Not going to happen.

[Quoted]

Sport stat club gives a 2% chance.

But I understand your meaning.

I'm sure that there is a way of calculating probability based on records etc., so that may be a reasonable number. Some here have simply used coin flip (50:50) to calculate win probablitities which is silly in sports (probabilty of getting two head in a row = 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4; winning two games in a row?). Basically coin flip probability is rooted in randomness. There is nothing random about sports outcomes.

[70seven]

With 10 games to go, it doesnt really matter where the Canucks finish. The Canucks have a good chance of finishing well as they play 8 of 10 at home, though there is some quality competition. (Ana x 2, Col x 2, LA, Mini, NYR) It would take a miracle for them to make the playoffs, as multipul teams would all have to lose, while we win out. These tougher games heading into the postseason should really remind us of where this team is at...


Considering the current standings, even if the Canucks finish well, I dont think theyll do any better than 20th, which would give them the 10th pick since NJ gets the 30th. Dallas and Detroit are 1 point ahead with 4 games in hand.

Teams that wont, and teams I dont think will surpass Vancouver:

Buffalo - 26 pts back (go Hodgson go!...lol)
Edmonton - 15 pts back
Florida - 14 pts back
NYI - 13 pts back
Calgary - 11 pts back

So by this point the best we can do is 6th overall.


THe next group is a total crap shoot to see where they finish up:

Nashville - 6 pts back - 2 games in hand
Carolina - 5 pts back - 3 games in hand
Ottawa - 5 pts back - 3 games in hand
Winnipeg - 1 pt back - 1 game in hand
NJ is irrelevant

Other than that, I dont see Vancouver catching anyone. The next closest team would be Washington who are 3 points ahead with 1 game in hand and Dallas who are 1 point ahead with 3 games in hand.


We WILL be picking somewhere in the 6-10 range... and honsetly, its a crap shoot as far as bpa in that bunch. Id guess teams will select off of organizational need in this area.

With the top 5 almost certainly being
Ekblad
Reinhart
Bennett
Dal Colle
Draiaistl (sp?)

The next 5 are all solid prospects... but you could argue to put them into any order:

Nick Ritchie - shoots left - LW/RW - 6'3" - 236 lbs - Monster power forward - 61 GP - 39 g - 35 a - 174 pim - voted best hitter in conference by coaches poll.

Brendan Perlini - shoots left - LW - 6'2" - 205 lbs - All around offensive threat - 58 gp - 34 g - 37 a - 36 pim - voted most improved player in conference by coaches poll. Id be keeping a very close eye on his playoff performance... could be the steal of this group.

Kasperi Kapanen - shoots right - RW - 5'11" - 172 lbs - Plays all situations, clutch performer - 47 gp - 7 g - 7 a - Plays pro for Kalpa in SM-liga.

Jake Virtanen - shoots right - RW/C - 6'1" - 210 - Fast, chippy, slick shot, powerfull - 71 GP - 45 g - 26 a - 100 pim - Virtanen is of Finnish descent, but born and raised in Abbotsford.

Nikolaj Ehlers - shoots left - LW - 5' 11" - 163 lbs - Quick, high end skill - 63 GP - 49 g - 55 a - +65 - Ehlers is an electrifying offensive talent, but his size is a deterrent.


Also available:

Hayden Fleury - best D available outside Ekbald.
Will Nylander - Said to be extremely patient with the puck (i think were good on patient players)

My hope is that Ottawa finishes right beside us... 6 + 7 would be beautiful if were able to scoop that pick from anahiem in a package for kesler.... ITs gonna get interesteng.

[D-Money]

Sorry, but we're talking cloud cuckoo land here.

Okay, it's not over 'til it's really over. But, to all intents and purposes, it's over.

The best the Canucks can do before they hit the golf course is gain some perspective on where they are, and maybe dig themselves out of their rut sufficiently to salvage some pride prior to the 2014-2015 season.

Torts has taken a beating on these boards, and unjustly so. Considerably so!

But, MG? Well, despite all the posturing about "player development" when he first took office here (maybe he should really have said "goalie-development", because that's just about the only item of ANY substance at all that has occurred during his reign) let's hope he does something worthwhile this off-season! No, I'm sorry, let's DEMAND he does something worthwhile this off-season, or alternatively Fly Off!

As my good friend Forrest would say, "that's all i have to say about that!"

- Probably our best defenseman this year was Tanev, who signed and developed under Gillis.

- Lack performed so well that we could afford to shed both highly-paid guys and go with a cheap tandem.

- How's that Jensen working out so far?

Despite having his first top prospect killed, and his second go full-on drama queen and demanding a trade, Gillis already has some of his youth in key positions.

I get a kick of how all the naysayers first wouldn't give Gillis credit because most of the key players in 2011 were Burke/Nonis guys. But when those guys go absolutely ice cold, it's all his fault?

[JoesRooster]

STAHP WITH THE PERCENTAGES!!

You have the same chance of winning a hockey game EVERY SINGLE NIGHT.

There is not a 3.125% chance of winning the next 5 games. There is a chance for both teams to win each game.

What's our % chance to beat St. Louis?? Because we have won every game we have played them.

The Canucks chance to make the play-offs is what they make them. It is not unrealistic to say we win 5 in a row, because they have won 5 in a row before. Hell this core has won 14 in a row before... Anything is possible, all you people believing that these %'s are set in stone are just being negative nancies... Realists, as you call yourselves, would believe anything can happen. IT'S SPORTS.

[stawns]

Seriously it's really depressing how so many people are counting out the canucks. I mean yes the chances are very slim but come on, don't be saying stuff like "winning games at this point is useless" and other discouraging stuff about how the organization needs to start losing games on purpose.

if you look at it if we get on a streak we're very much in this. also if you think about it, as much as highly touted prospect sounds great and all, that's another player taking a potential job of one of our current players so finishing strong will most likely be the case for this team.

Anyways that's all i wanted to say, don't give up just yet. We still got a chance, and if we get in expect us to do some damage (la kings)

funny, what I find depressing is people who can't see the bigger picture and are willing to accept years of mediocrity for something beyond a long shot. To me, that's selfish. I want this team to be better for years into the future, even if it means accepting a year or two of tough times. I just can't wrap my head around such short sighted thinking.