Possible GM candidate Mike Smith - hockeys version of Moneyball

[TrevorLinden4ever]

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=105064989

http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/26207-Mike-Smiths-Blog-Analytics-provide-extra-layer-of-infoto-those-who-want-it.html

I don’t know if Mike Smith is a candidate as Canucks GM, but somebody in our pool club brought this guy up once, raving about how he was directly responsible for turning around the Maple Laughs in ’98 and setting a franchise record for wins in a single season and how Pat Quinns takeover as GM screwed up the foundational changes Smith had installed over the summer of 98. I was never a fan of Pat Quinn given how he dismantled the ’94 Canucks with a bunch of one dimensional pansies (Tikkanen, Mogilny, Beranek) at the expense of the popular character support cast like Shawn Antoski and Nathan Lafayette so I basically agreed that Pat Quinn wasn’t a great GM but I didn’t know about Mike Smith so I did a little research. Well apparently this Mike Smith, who holds a PHd in Russian studies (talk about a real hockey pedigree there LOL), was a consultant for Gillis early on after his hiring. He’s a former NHL GM stretching back to the old Jets and the co-founder of hockey consulting firm Coleman Analytics.

Being a baseball fan and having seen the movie Moneyball, I knew exactly what the deal was with Mike Smith and the potential of having someone who was more on the progressive side. Just starting a consulting company like this says that you’re a hockey connoisseur who knows his stuff, which begs the question as to why we don't see people who think outside of the box who design these sorts of innovative tools more involved in todays game. In the interview he did comment how the NHL is an old boys club and that the owners are for the most part, kept in the dark when it comes to “cutting edge” methods as the GM’s don’t want the big boss to know about it. But the fact is, pro sports is adopting these analytical methodologies with the advent of GM Billy Beane’s Oakland Athletics a decade ago on one of baseballs lowest payrolls and is also currently employed on a few NBA teams. Given how competition within the NHL will be increasingly under pressure with the salary cap, I think bringing in a real smartass progressive GM who does things differently into the Canucks fold would be wise over any known name out there. Though not widespread, apparently there are a few others out there who do some form of analytics but it appears Smith is the only guy out there with serious NHL employment on his resume who’s developed and used this method, which makes him the ideal choice for GM if the Canucks want to go that route.

Let’s look at it this way for a moment. If we take the standard assumption that GM’s manage player rosters on a combination of bias and hard stats, given how the MLB and NBA are starting to modernize their ways, will the NHL continue employing this flimsy ineffective player valuation model as opposed to formulating roster chemistry based on, how a firm like this would do it, raw skill and situational game performance analytics of each player? In any case, anyone who thinks hard, studies the game intently and develops a complex analytics tool and uses it in practice deviates from the simplistic managerial approach taken in the game today. Such an approach suppresses to say the least, the inherent faults of any guy at the helm. So for example, perhaps you might be able to figure out before the fact that an above average prospect like Brendan Gaunce will not have the same impact at the pro ranks or that a 50 goal scorer like Thomas Vanek won’t by any stretch of the imagination, give your team that extra pump up the standings, take away salary. And as we saw with the Oakland A’s, Billy Beane’s model of formulating a team whilst slashing payroll pumped the A’s into record setting consecutive wins in MLB history.

Whatever the case may be, conventional decision making in the NHL today and yesteryear has proven to produce rather conspicuous discrepancies when it comes to players like the aforementioned (refer to the Kevin Lowe-Brian Burke ruckus back when, where clearly Mr. Burke was in the right by 8 million miles). And with all that considered, my money any day would be on Mike Smith’s Moneypuck (I didn't make that one up) over a less than perfect and high-cost sport, if for any reason, I get more bang for my buck and time as a fan.

Another thing that sets apart teams who have long term success like Detroit from the have-nots is good drafting and development which is obviously one of the applications for this kind of analytics program as opposed to lazy scouts who whip up generic reports and rubber stamp the bundle on draft day, and as is the case in Vancouver, lack in player evaluation skills and capable judgment calls. (Smith did reference Detroit in high terms, labeling their style of play as a Euro-North American hybrid). The breadwinners for Detroit are the guys they drafted. Despite our accumulation of some of the biggest draft blunders in the NHL, the Canucks have lucked out with a core group of Kesler, Schneider [woops traded], Sedins, Bieksa, and FA signing of Burrows from ECHL.

Smith has also been referenced as one of the first to tap into the overseas talent pool, drafting guys like Khabibulin in the 9th round and Teemu Selanne in the early 90’s when nobody else would go there, along with drafting domestic studs like Keith Tkachuk and Kris Draper – all pretty impressive for one team within a couple years. So whether he was using any form of his current analytics program or simply going on his inherent skills as a talent evaluator, why wouldn’t a guy who knows how to draft and is up there when it comes to getting good players place you onto one of the GM spots in this league?

It is a sad state of affairs when you see people who appear to have something better to offer the game at the benefit of the fan, or are working on developing new ways to better manage hockey teams, purportedly pushed out over the years by the old boys club. Take now Liberal Senator Ken Dryden who as Leafs president fired Smith with class over the telephone (while Smith was taking his late wife to a doctors appointment) after Smith reversed a non-playoff team to a record 45 wins or the Jets who as a showing of gratitude for drafting some of the finest skaters imaginable also showed him the door. We all know where the Jets landed btw. As for Dryden, he now sits on his rear a few days out of the year at the six-figured expense of the tax payer. Never mind productivity, prudency, ethics or whatever, the cultural character of this league is not in line with present day reality while baseball and the NBA are ahead.

With the downfall of this team since 2011, its well known the Canucks havent sustained success with any recent smart trades, which is something you could conservatively assume a guy involved with innovative analytics methodologies would "statistically" close the gap on, or at least not stink up as has been the case with many trades we’ve seen in Vancouver. Obviously any intelligence based approach to team management would bring a breath of fresh air to this organization and its on-ice product after big embarrassments on and following June 2011. I for one will never pay $150 for a ticket to see a bunch of high priced athletes play minimal hockey and Torts can only do so much to get these pro athletes to compete and put on a good product.

While we're at it, let's close with this. As mentioned, the Oakland A’s have been one of the most dramatically successful and stable franchises under a low salary structure using statistical analytics methodologies under GM Beane. The A’s and the 1994 Canucks have something that no high priced losing team will ever have – the pride of the fans. We may hate the fact that Bettman has instituted a salary cap but in looking back at this team, what many a fan like this author found more detestable was seeing Pat Quinn using misguided judgment and going out on a spendthrift for guys like Mogliny and Messier who unlike Mr. Canuck himself - Linden, didn’t give a damn about the team or the fans. Think about it - there is one constant here, whether it was Quinn or Gillis dishing out the big cheques at the expense of ticket prices. That constant being the team tanked and played boring hockey because neither Quinn nor Gillis had the faculties to properly appropriate the payroll. Guys like Edler or Booth are pretty much financial cancers at the expense of the ticketholder who have not played worth the salt on their contract, and whose jobs could easily be filled by career minor leaguers with similar profiles to some of the depth guys we had in 1994.

Regardless of what a GM’s “style” or method, you're looking at many probabilities both within the laws of physics and within his general makeup that will work against the next guy who comes in here with a typical strategy. In that sense, getting someone different - a Billy Beane-type like a Mike Smith to right this thing could be a consideration. "Cliché's" on the other hand like Quinn, Benning, McPhee or Fenton might be much welcomed but the question needs to be asked, "is the team implementing an overhaul of real change as opposed to typical team management? The pressure is on and if we see the same old, fans could start disassociating from this embarrassment of a team and switch over to a more economical MLS. Besides, it is an insult to the fanbase when you slap a “we are all Canucks” motto, have a high payroll yet crappy team and charge a huge expense on tickets, so whomever they hire, hopefully this organization takes a different route as opposed to hiring a media prediction.

[aGENT]

Gillis was "Moneyball" (puck?)...so it wouldn't actually be a departure or new direction...

[Herberts Vasiljevs]

I can't pretend I'm an expert on GM candidates, but Benning just sounds like a no-brainer.

[Brick Tamland]

Jim Benning or bust!

[Wonder__Bread]

I too have been interested in this moneyball strategy of running an organisation. I myself tried to develop some formula's and such but the statistics aren't there for the public, but I'm sure a team like the Canucks has every statistic available for use. I hate the old boys club politics that's persistent in every facet of life, it is very detrimental to growth. Great post OP.

However, I do like Benning, we would be fools not to offer him the job.

[Honky Cat]

Is this the guy that wanted us to trade Horvat on Sportsnet....?

[Dogbyte]

Gillis - Moneyball = No way Jose

Also Leafs turnaround ... lol yeah right.

[smithers joe]

Jim Benning or bust!

who is this bust fellow?

[aGENT]

who is this bust fellow?

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Gillis was "Moneyball" (puck?)...so it wouldn't actually be a departure or new direction...

(VP Hockey OPs & AGM) Laurence Gilman is also a proponent of analytics (possibly even more so than Gillis).

I've heard Gilman discuss players and prospects in terms of GvT, Corsi Rel QualComp, IPP, NHLe, and many of the other "fancy stats."

I've also been told that the Canucks keep their own stats, including some proprietary metrics and in-house computational methods.

[hlinkas wrister]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't "moneyball" only relevant when trying to compete with teams who can spend 10 times more money than you (i.e Yankees vs Oakland)? How is this valuable to a Canadian NHL team in a salary cap league that spends to the cap every year ? Sounds like it would be worth more to a franchise like Nashville. Not to mention the fact that if the Canucks could find a way to lower their bottom line, they certainly are never going to pass that along to us in ticket price reduction. Good job on the body of work though OP.

[aGENT]

(VP Hockey OPs & AGM) Laurence Gilman is also a proponent of analytics (possibly even more so than Gillis).

I've heard Gilman discuss players and prospects in terms of GvT, Corsi Rel QualComp, IPP, NHLe, and many of the other "fancy stats."

I've also been told that the Canucks keep their own stats, including some proprietary metrics and in-house computational methods.

It would surprise the hell out of me if most, if not all, NHL clubs did not use some sort of advanced metrics/analytics in their player assessment to some degree or another. They're not doing their jobs if they aren't.

[TheAntar]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't "moneyball" only relevant when trying to compete with teams who can spend 10 times more money than you (i.e Yankees vs Oakland)? How is this valuable to a Canadian NHL team in a salary cap league that spends to the cap every year ? Sounds like it would be worth more to a franchise like Nashville. Not to mention the fact that if the Canucks could find a way to lower their bottom line, they certainly are never going to pass that along to us in ticket price reduction. Good job on the body of work though OP.

The whole thing in moneyball was that people were valuing the wrong stats. "He gets on base" ... Right? So if hockey guys are barking up the wrong tree then spending to the cap on the right tree is helping.

[Fred65]

As far as I'm aware Gillis went to great lengths to keep stats...in house criteria just as mentioned.....but it still got us a Ballard and a Booth. Mike Smith is the tue academic type who has unsuccesfullt argued stats versus hands on. While statsamy and indeed are great for actuaries and the like they don't always represent reality when applied to a smaller model...it might be true of for insatnce the NHL but not so accurate for one specific team...IMO any way.

Smith was fired by Winnipeg, Chicago and TO...but he does have an eye for talent and has drafted some really beauties often late in in the draft

He now apprently has his own company

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=105064989

- Mike Smith has drafted moderately to highly successful NHL players, most of whom are still playing:

Teemu Selanne

Brent Seabrook

Duncan Keith

Dustin Byfuglien

Alexei Zhamnov

Igor Korolev

Nikolai Khabibulin

Keith Tkachuk

Nikolai Antropov

Kris Draper

Craig Anderson

Corey Crawford

Adam Burish

James Wisniewski

Tuomo Ruutu

Aaron Ward

Stu Barnes

[hlinkas wrister]

The whole thing in moneyball was that people were valuing the wrong stats. "He gets on base" ... Right? So if hockey guys are barking up the wrong tree then spending to the cap on the right tree is helping.

That makes sense in that context, cheers.

[mpt]

Lost OP ever?

[CB007]

How do you know Benning is a cliche? Maybe he has all the analytics up his sleeves?

[Nino]

I never want to hear moneyball and hockey used together ever again!!! Thanks MG

[tas]

moneyball is a good strategy to allow small market teams to compete. its not a good strategy for a team with money to use to win.

[hlinkas wrister]

moneyball is a good strategy to allow small market teams to compete. its not a good strategy for a team with money to use to win.

TheAntar explained it to me a little different up above but when "value" is no longer the focus then I don't think you can call it "moneyball" anymore, it's just anlaytics (which I assume every team is using some form of now). I hear stuff all the time now about corsi and such, maybe we should just try this analytic- draft winners. Players who win at every level they play at- players from the winning world junior team that year, players from the Memorial cup winning team this year, players who win the frozen four that year. Maybe they aren't always the shiniest or most conventional picks, but if you have a roster of players who have won at every level you will see success. A little pie in the sky I know, but it would be curious to see how it worked out.