Off Season Game Plan- Vancouver Canucks [Cullen]

[Warhippy]

The Vancouver Canucks missed the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and cleaned house, firing GM Mike Gillis and head coach John Tortorella.

Off-Season Game Plan examines a Canucks team that actually has enough pieces in place to bounce back next season.

Canucks legend Trevor Linden has taken over as team president but hasn't yet filled the openings that he created by firing Gillis and Tortorella, though there has been speculation that Bruins Assistant GM Jim Benning isa front-runner for the gig.

As much as the 2013-2014 season was a mess for the Canucks, this team isn't an unmitigated disaster either. There are holes, but holes that can be filled and, even in a down season, the Canucks were a Top 10 possession team.

If circumstances were different, perhaps the Canucks would be in position to overhaul the roster, but with no-trade clauses scattered througout the core of their roster, the most reasonable plan of attack for next season is to provide support for the Sedins, Ryan Kesler and a defence corps that is certainly playoff-worthy.

"Our goal is to be back in the playoffs next spring as we continue developing this group into a team that can challenge for the Stanley Cup," Linden wrote in a letter to season-ticket holders.

There are holes to fill, not least of which is in net, a position that has not been handled in an ideal fashion over the past year. Capable goaltending, improved depth and a sharper power play could be enough for the Canucks to return to the playoffs.

So, it's possible, but the Canucks have to hire a general manager and coach before getting too bullish on expectations for next season.

The good news is that this team is in position to recover quickly if bounces are more favourable for them next season.

The TSN.ca Rating is an efficiency rating based on per-game statistics including goals and assists -- weighted for strength (ie. power play, even, shorthanded) -- Corsi, adjusted for zone starts, quality of competition and quality of teammates, hits, blocked shots, penalty differential and faceoffs. Generally, a replacement-level player is around a 60, a top six forward and top four defenceman will be around 70, stars will be over 80 and MVP candidates could go over 90. Sidney Crosby finished at the top of the 2013-2014 regular season ratings at 87.12.

Salary cap information all comes from the indispensablewww.capgeek.com.

CF% = Corsi percentage (ie. percentage of 5-on-5 shot attempts), viawww.extraskater.com.

GM/COACH
Vacant/Vacant

RETURNING FORWARDS Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Cap Hit

Ryan Kesler 71.94 77 25 18 43 52.4% $5.0M

Daniel Sedin 70.07 73 16 31 47 56.9% $7.0M

Henrik Sedin 69.67 70 11 39 50 55.7% $7.0M

Chris Higgins 69.57 78 17 22 39 50.7% $2.5M Brad Richardson 63.93 73 11 12 23 47.9% $1.15M

David Booth 63.41 66 9 10 19 52.0% $4.25M

Jannik Hansen 62.98 71 11 9 20 51.8% $2.5M

Alexandre Burrows 62.77 49 5 10 15 56.0% $4.5M

Shawn Matthias 62.67 77 12 11 23 48.5% $1.75M

Tom Sestito 55.97 77 5 4 9 44.6% $750K

FREE AGENT FORWARDS Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Class '13-'14 Cap Hit

Mike Santorelli 70.33 49 10 18 28 50.6% UFA $550K

Zack Kassian 65.23 73 14 15 29 50.9% RFA $870K

Jordan Schroeder 59.81 25 3 3 6 52.4% RFA $600K

Zac Dalpe 56.70 55 4 3 7 44.7% RFA $550K

It caused something of a furor leading up to the NHL trade deadline when word leaked that Ryan Kesler wanted out of Vancouver, and it's certainly possible that he could be moved this summer, but with the front office being overhauled, new management may have an opportunity to convince Kesler that he's going to still be playing a vital role on a contending team in Vancouver.

He's not the dominant possession player he was a few years ago, but Kesler remains a strong two-way performer, who faces tough oppositionnight after night and has scored at least 20 goals in six of the past seven seasons. If Kesler wants to move on, the good news for the Canucks is that he should bring a quality return as a productive player signed to a reasonable contract for two more seasons.

One of the most glaring differences with last season's Canucks, compared to previous incarnations, was that the Sedins (Daniel Sedin andHenrik Sedin) struggled offensively, both finishing below 0.80 points per game for the first time since 2003-2004. The initital expectation was that they might not get as many offensive zone starts as they did under Alain Vigneault, and they didn't, but still started better than 60% of their shifts in the offensive zone.

While they didn't score, and averaged more ice time than ever before, the Sedins remained dominant in the possession game, both on the ice for more than 55.0% of 5-on-5 shot attempts. Poor percentages resulted in a down season, though that could be reason to expect a bounce back, provided that they still have it in them, at 34-years-old, to get back to scoring at previously customary levels.

Chris Higgins has found a reliable role in Vancouver, playing tough minutes and contributing secondary offence. He has good speed and, while not a high-percentage finisher, he generates enough shots to be productive.

That Brad Richardson ended up playing a career-high 14:54 per game probably wasn't in the Canucks' ideal plans for last season and he contributed 11 goals, 23 points, but he was on the low-end of the possession game, an indication that the workload was more than he was accustomed to handling.

A three-time 20-goal scorer prior to joining the Canucks, David Booth has scored 26 goals in 134 games with Vancouver and, with declining ice time, he's a candidate for a buyout because teams don't need to pay $4.75-million (Booth's 2014-2015 salary) to get this level of production. The argument in favour of Booth would hinge on possession numbers, which have remained strong in Vancouver. That may not be enough.

Speedy winger Jannik Hansen took nice steps forward in the previous two seasons, only to fall back last season, when the percentages weren't as favourable for him. There's no need to put unreasonable expectations on him; he can be a very good third-line forward/penalty killer.

Last season was disastrous for Alexandre Burrows, who didn't score a goal until his 36th game of the season (then scored his season total, five, in four games) and his point production was at its lowest rate since 2006-2007. On the way to burying Burrows, though, consider that he still had terrific possession numbers -- these things happen when you skate with the Sedins, but not just with the Sedins. It might be difficult to go into next season planning on five-goal Burrows being skating on the top line with the Sedins, but he's due for better percentages, no matter where he fits in the lineup.

Part of the Roberto Luongo trade, Shawn Matthias comes to Vancouver as a big tease, for the most part. He's 6-foot-4 and has scored 26 goals in limited ice time over the past two seasons (an efficiency that slots him between Jordan Eberle and Bobby Ryan in goals per 60 minutes of play), but he's a 26-year-old whose career-high is 24 points. At some point, the production has to be there to fit in a top-six, or even top-nine, spot. With a year left on his contract, next year could be a make-it-or-break-it season for Matthias.

Tom Sestito led the league with 19 fighting majors and 213 penalty minutes. Since 2005-2006 (Lockout I), only a couple of Philadelphia Flyers,Riley Cote and Zac Rinaldo, had a season with more than 200 penalty minutes with less time on ice. He also gets routinely destroyed according to possession metrics, so it's entirely possible that, if he's going to be on the roster, he doesn't need to be dressed for 77 games, as he was last season.

Zack Kassian showed some progress last season, finishing with a career-best 14 goals nd 29 points, and while his possession stats weren't anything special, he also started more of his shifts in the defensive zone andhe's 23-years-old, so there is room for further improvement.

Jordan Schroeder has been battling for a regular spot in the lineup and missed a good chunk of last season with an ankle injury. To this point, his 15 points in 56 career games along with decent (if sheltered) possession numbers should give Schroeder a leg up on the competition for a job next season.

Zac Dalpe has played at least 10 NHL games in each of the past four seasons, getting in a career-high 55 games last season, and has 17 points in 96 career games. He's struggled possession-wise and figures, at best, to be on the fringe of the lineup.

That's not a bad group of returning forwards, but the Canucks could very easily dip into the free agent market to find a proven scorer to boot their top six. One possibility would be to keep Mike Santorelli, who had some success last season, or the Canucks could check out the free agent market for someone

like Mike Cammalleri, Milan Michalek or Ales Hemsky -- someone capable of fitting with the Sedins.

RETURNING DEFENCE Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Cap Hit

Alexander Edler 69.35 63 7 15 22 52.4% $5.0M

Jason Garrison 68.41 81 7 26 33 49.1% $4.6M

Kevin Bieksa 66.99 76 4 20 24 51.5% $4.6M

Dan Hamhuis 66.48 79 5 17 22 51.4% $4.5M

Ryan Stanton 63.77 64 1 15 16 53.1% $550K

FREE AGENT DEFENCE Player Rating GP G A PTS CF% Class '13-'14 Cap Hit

Chris Tanev 65.90 64 6 11 17 51.2% RFA $1.5M

Yannick Weber 62.40 49 6 4 10 50.1% RFA $650K

Andrew Alberts 56.34 10 0 0 0 48.4% UFA $600K

While he was maligned for his least productive season since 2007-2008,Alexander Edler was more unlucky than anything with the worst PDO (on-ice save + on-ice shooting percentage) among regular defencemen. That doesn't guarantee that everything will be fine, but for a 28-year-old who has played more than 23 minutes a night for each of the past four seasons, Edler is a good bet to produce better numbers next year.

Of the four defencemen with no-trade clauses at the top of the Canucks' depth chart, Jason Garrison is the one with the big shot, which resulted in 15 power play points last season and has him among the defence goal-scoring leaders the past three seasons but, last season, his possession numbers weren't very good.

Kevin Bieksa has been a staple on the Vancouver defence since 2005-2006. He's put up more than 40 points three times and more than 90 penalty minutes five times. He can play tough minutes, and still put updecent possession numbers, and is reasonably-priced for the next couple seasons. These factors would make him desirable as a trade commodity too.

The most reliable of Vancouver's defenders, Dan Hamhuis has been taking on progressively tougher matchups since arriving from Nashville. He plays a no-frills game, but that includes limiting shots against, which seems like a good attribute for a defenceman to possess.

Scooped off waivers from Chicago, Ryan Stanton took a regular turn on the Vancouver blueline and while it was third-pair work against lower-level competition, he more than held his own. He's an inexpensive piece to hold down an everyday spot on defence.

An undrafted gem, 24-year-old Chris Tanev has been very good and steadily improving in a defensive role, moving up alongside Hamhuis totake on tough defensive matchups last season. It's Tanev's emergence that does more reasonably allow the Canucks to consider moving one of their more established blueliners.

Yannick Weber can skate and shoot the puck, but hasn't been able to land more than a fringe role in the league. He's not bad as an inexpensive seventh defenceman option, since he can offer some value on the power play as well.

With this defence core, the Canucks only need to make tweaks around the edges if they are going to make moves in the offseason.

RETURNING GOALTENDERS Player Rating GP W L OTL GAA SV% Cap Hit

Eddie Lack 67.44 41 16 17 5 2.41 .912 $1.15M

Jacob Markstrom 48.62 16 2 8 3 3.39 .873 $1.2M

Eddie Lack had a nice rookie season, playing far more than could have been expected coming into the year thanks to Roberto Luongo getting traded, but asa 26-year-old with limited track record, he can't be assumed to be the number one for a contending team next season. Maybe he will be but, at the very least, there should be competition.

Presumably

Jacob Markstrom might have a shot at that competition, since he has a $1.2-million one-way contract for next season, but even though he has been a highly-touted prospect, the shine on his star has diminished after an .896 save percentage in 47 career NHL games. He's huge, still just 24-years-old and has a save percentage of .922 in the AHL over 94 games in the past three seasons, so there is some reason for hope, but going into next season with Lack and Markstrom would require serious finger-crossing.

Even if the Canucks aren't necessarily going to go after a top unrestricted free agent like Ryan Miller or Jaroslav Halak (though they could...), Vancouver could consider a free agent like Jonas Hiller, Brian Elliott or trade for James Reimer.

TOP PROSPECTS Player Pos. Team/League Stats

Bo Horvat C London (OHL) 30-44-74, +20, 54 GP

Brendan Gaunce C Erie (OHL) 31-41-72, +25, 65 GP

Hunter Shinkaruk LW Medicine Hat (WHL) 5-11-16, -2, 18 GP

Nicklas Jensen LW Utica (AHL) 15-6-21, -5, 54 GP

Cole Cassels C Oshawa (OHL) 24-49-73, +7, 61 GP

Frank Corrado D Utica (AHL) 6-11-17, -7, 59 GP

Dane Fox LW Erie (OHL) 64-43-107, +46, 67 GP

Ben Hutton D Maine (HE) 15-14-29, +8, 35 GP

Jordan Subban D Belleville (OHL) 12-30-42, -11, 66 GP

Anton Cederholm D Portland (OHL) 4-12-16, +42, 71 GP

Joacim Eriksson G Utica (AHL) 2.61 GAA, .911 SV%, 52 GP

Bo Horvat, taken ninth overall with the pick acquired from New Jersey forCory Schneider (remember him?), is a solid two-way player who could make the jump to the Canucks next season. There may be some question to Horvat's offensive upside, but little concern about whether he has the game to stick in some role.

A first-round pick in 2012, Brendan Gaunce is a big-bodied forward who has scored 92 goals over the past three OHL seasons. If he can skate well enough to keep pace, he may have a chance to challenge for a job too, but some time in the AHL wouldn't hurt.

Hip surgery ended Hunter Shinkaruk's season early, but he's a skilled winger who has been a finisher in the WHL. He's not big, so getting stronger and getting a full season next year, ought to be top priorities.

Drafted in the first round in 2012, Nicklas Jensen has good size and speed, but didn't do much in the AHL (29 points in 80 career AHL games). However, he played pretty well in 17 games with the Canucks last season.

A third-round pick last summer, Cole Cassels took a step forward as a playmaking forward. He's not as prolific as his dad, Andrew, but Cole has climbed the ladder quickly over the course of a year.

Steady blueliner Frank Corrado was a fifth-round pick in 2011 and has played 18 games for the Canucks since. He's only 21, so Corrado has time to round out his game, but he's not far from challenging for a job with the Canucks.

Signed as an undrafted free agent this year, Dane Fox scored 64 goals in 67 games for Erie, after never scoring more than 23 goals and 54 points in an OHL season. If the goal-scoring is for real, and not the product of a powerhouse team, then Fox could be interesting. The Canucks can see if it translates to the AHL next year.

Taken in the fifth round of the 2012 Draft, Ben Hutton has good size and had a terrific sophomore season at Maine. His ability to move the puck and join the attack are strengths.

Jordan Subban doesn't come with the same pedigree as older brother DP.K. Subban (or G Malcolm Subban), in part because he's small for the position, but can skate and make smart decisions with the puck.

Drafted in the fifth round out of Sweden last summer, Anton Cederholmplays for WHL powerhouse Portland and was one of six players with a rating of +40 or better. He's big and physical, though hasn't shown much offensive game.

Pulled off the scrap heap, Joacim Eriksson was a seventh-round pick of the Flyers in 2008, but handled the starter's role in the AHL last season. Given the inexperience ahead of him already, he's not likely to be in the picture.

Canucks advanced stats and player usage chart from Extra Skater

DRAFT
6th - Michael Dal Colle, William Nylander, Kasperi Kapanen

FREE AGENCY
According to www.capgeek.com, the Canucks have approximately $58.9M committed to the 2013-2014 salary cap for 17 players.

Check out my possible Canucks lineup for next season on Cap Geek here.

Needs: Top-six winger, top-nine forward, goaltender.

What I said the Canucks needed last year: Two top nine forwards, depth forwards, two-three defencemen, financial flexibility.

They added: Mike Santorelli, Brad Richardson, Zac Dalpe, Ryan Stanton,Yannick Weber, Eddie Lack.

TRADE MARKET
Ryan Kesler, Alex Burrows, Kevin Bieksa, Alexander Edler,Jason Garrison.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=451654

-----------------------------------------

Sorry for the potato quality scripting, will try again.

But as per Cullens yearly Off-Season articles, this si his thoughts for the Canucks now and moving forward.

Thoughts?

[AriGold]

How I felt reading this... But I'm not sure why...

[mpt]

Seems pretty accurate and reasonable

[Tom Sestito]

How I felt reading this... But I'm not sure why...

Huh?

Anyways, it's a well put together article. Most of it's accurate.

[AriGold]

Huh?

Anyways, it's a well put together article. Most of it's accurate.

Must be just my eyes, I found that background really rough.. lol..

[Absent Canuck]

I think it read like a promotion piece.

It was on point and informative to someone who knows little about the Canucks .

[MRAY]

Must be just my eyes, I found that background really rough.. lol..

Not just you bud, i had trouble reading it too.

[RunningWild]

Wow, surprised about how much I agree with this. Bout time they cited possession metrics when evaluating players/teams - instead of useless plus/minus and hit/blocked shot totals. Lol.

[Gstank29]

At the end of the year it seemed that puck was always hitting elder and going in, so +/- can de a deceiving stat at times.

Honestly u can see that canucks trading at least one of there top 6 defence man and probably at least one top 9 forward to add some younger players who fit benning (assuming he's the gm) style of play

[Smashian Kassian]

I disagree on the goaltending, but aside from that I agree with basically everything else. Pretty good article. Much better than I was expecting.

[surtur]

Was no mention of fox as a prospect? He is a huge wild card potential dark horse to make the team out of camp. Unlikely but could happen.

Maybe a fox kesler kassian line.

[theminister]

Was no mention of fox as a prospect? He is a huge wild card potential dark horse to make the team out of camp. Unlikely but could happen.

Maybe a fox kesler kassian line.

Right below Corrado.

[crazycry]

I am actually very very interested to see if Fox can translate his game to the NHL. If so, man is he a steal.

[Phil_314]

So, Edler was the top-rated defenseman on our team and Garrison was 2nd, above Captain Juice, above Tanev and even ABOVE Hamhuis. Can't say I'm not surprised by that (any stats whiz on here want to explain the rating system and the results?) but I guess it means that our trashing of the two have been premature, at least.

[austy]

just regarding Dalpe and Sestito possession numbers, could they be a result of how they are told to play ie dump and chase. Does coaching play a role how these numbers play out? Dalpe and Sesito seemed scared to skate the puck in at times and always made the safe play.

[Warhippy]

I really do think next year is a huge bounce back year for the team provided no major moves are made in the off season.

That being said I think we are one Kesler/Edler + trade away from having a 1 year rebuild

Nice to know someone with a genuine depth of hockey knowledge sees so much value still in our big players, when CDC experts find them to be worthless

[Boudrias]

I really do think next year is a huge bounce back year for the team provided no major moves are made in the off season.

That being said I think we are one Kesler/Edler + trade away from having a 1 year rebuild

Nice to know someone with a genuine depth of hockey knowledge sees so much value still in our big players, when CDC experts find them to be worthless

It doesn't take a CDC expert to realize that the Canucks have a big challenge ahead. Can the Canucks bounce back to playoff contention next year? You could argue that they should have been there this year.

IMHO the Canuck forward group is dominated by it's senior members. One could argue that is normal and I would agree. The issue is that other than Kassian there is no one pushing from below. I caveat that by saying that Santo had a great season and might be able to repeat. One has to assume that the 1st line

can regain some production. The 2nd has the same question marks as the last 3 seasons. Can Kesler anchor a top 6 line that can challenge the Twins? If in fact Kesler wants out then we won't have to worry

about that anyway. With his NTC Kesler can limit where he is moved to which will impact his return. If he is moved then the playoff contention quest might be pushed down the road.

I can agree that the Canucks have some quality pieces on their roster. The Av's had a dynamic coach come in, admittably, with a younger roster and turned their team around. That said the Av's have more raw

talent than Vancouver. When I measure the Canuck roster against the current playoff teams they fall short. For me it is all about using the value of the existing roster to rejig the playoff timeline to

20 - 24 year olds. As it sits right now the only aspect of this roster that has serious playoff skills

is the d-core.

[aGENT]

IMO what we need is a PMD (not mentioned in the article) and a top 6 winger or preferably LH centre. We have plenty of capable bottom 6 players (in fact I think we need to shed some contrary to the article).

Goaltending I'm actually pretty comfortable with personally but If management would feel more comfortable with an inexpensive but experienced vet to push/shelter Lack, I wouldn't be surprised (or offended) either.

[CB007]

"Possession stats" is just Corsi for/against. We shoot the puck from everywhere so our Corsi numbers are good. I kept feeling like we were trying to win the Corsi game all season instead of trying to score more goals than the other team. IMHO, in this case, the high praises of our possession stats is not a reflection of our performance this year.

[elvis15]

Huh?

Anyways, it's a well put together article. Most of it's accurate.

I stopped worrying about validity after he said Linden fired Gillis. Don't really mind Cullen though, haven't read much of his stuff but have seen a few like this one in the past.