[Article] Vancouver Canucks Scouting vs. Simple Statistics

[Langdon Algur]

The supergoon penalty argument reminds me of Nick Ritchie, although to a far lesser extent. Ritchie collected 136pims this season, but had only 3 fighting majors. So 121pims were of the more questionable variety.

Compare this to Lucic's draft year, where he took 149pims, but fought 21 times. That meant only 44pims for Lucic were of the more questionable variety.

You might say that well Lucic was just a goon so all he did was fight and get off the ice. And that may hold true to a degree, but look at JD Watt, the Giant's other toughguy, in his draft year: 213pims, 17 fighting majors, resulting in 128pims of the questionable variety. That's WAY more penalties than Lucic.

Maybe we should take into account discipline when looking at toughguys with some scoring ability.

Compare that to Tom Sestito this past season. 213pims with 19 fighting majors. So 118 questionable pims.

And Kassian. 124pims w/ 3 fighting majors. 109 questionable pims.

This is just way too many penalties to be taking. Are we just getting more calls? Or is this just a lack of discipline?

Great post, the Canucks under Torts last year took way too many stupid penalities. When looking at players stats for drafting/trades we need to stop looking at PIMs as a positive stat, players who take panalities without a fight generally cost their team more likely then help them.

[DeNiro]

For comparison:

Dane Fox - 120 PIMS

Sam Bennett - 118 PIMS

Brendan Lemieux - 145 PIMS

PIMs don't always tell the whole story. Bennett collected 118 PIMS without any fighting majors, and he is expected to go top 3.

When a player is out on the ice as much as these guys and relied on by their teams as much as these guys, they're bound to take penalties. Especially in junior when almost everything is called, including all of the ridiculous embellishments.

[DeNiro]

Compare that to Tom Sestito this past season. 213pims with 19 fighting majors. So 118 questionable pims.

And Kassian. 124pims w/ 3 fighting majors. 109 questionable pims.

This is just way too many penalties to be taking. Are we just getting more calls? Or is this just a lack of discipline?

Yea, but how many of those were 10 minute misconducts and 7 minute penalties?

Those can add to a players PIM totals pretty quickly.

Kassian is becoming much more disciplined, I think the refs just target him a little more sometimes because of his history. Sestito on the other hand is just a bonehead, that this team needs to dump sooner than later.

[CB007]

I think more than anything else the picks should be selected base on mathematical criteria only and best player available, and leave emotional attachments and 'team needs' out of the equation.

The potato here has a set of very very basic instructions from very very limited information to pick from. But imagine if we develop a system that takes into account:

1) defence and goalie

2) advance statistics

3) incorporate other junior leagues in NA and Europe

4) incorporate physical attributes

Use pure science, or at least 90% science, instead of other emotional or human factors. And our draft records will be more successful in the future.

[TOMapleLaughs]

For comparison:

Dane Fox - 120 PIMS

Sam Bennett - 118 PIMS

Brendan Lemieux - 145 PIMS

PIMs don't always tell the whole story. Bennett collected 118 PIMS without any fighting majors, and he is expected to go top 3.

When a player is out on the ice as much as these guys and relied on by their teams as much as these guys, they're bound to take penalties. Especially in junior when almost everything is called, including all of the ridiculous embellishments.

Yup. Lucic came to mind though because some people expect the next Lucic out of Ritchie. From those 15 games it looks like Ritchie likes to cross-check and slash guys.

[DeNiro]

Yup. Lucic came to mind though because some people expect the next Lucic out of Ritchie. From those 15 games it looks like Ritchie likes to cross-check and slash guys.

Yea, but I'd rather see slashing and cross-checking penalties than an excessive amount of hooking, tripping, or interference calls.

Slashing and cross-checking typically means that the player is just letting his emotions get the best of him. This can be corrected, or in Lucic and Marchand's case, they just get better at hiding it from the refs.

Hooking and tripping penalties indicate to me a player that is unable to keep up with the play, or one who is constantly losing his check. Interference, again is sort of the same thing, and shows a lack of hockey IQ.

[TOMapleLaughs]

Yea, but I'd rather see slashing and cross-checking penalties than an excessive amount of hooking, tripping, or interference calls.

Slashing and cross-checking typically means that the player is just letting his emotions get the best of him. This can be corrected, or in Lucic and Marchand's case, they just get better at hiding it from the refs.

Hooking and tripping penalties indicate to me a player that is unable to keep up with the play, or one who is constantly losing his check. Interference, again is sort of the same thing, and shows a lack of hockey IQ.

Depends if they are retaliatory or not. If he's easy to get off his game, how effective will he be?

Anyway, he's not a complete maniac like Kyle Beach, so the concern isn't all that high. I just wouldn't expect a Lucic though, that's for sure.

[VanCityCanuck14]

And no defensemen and no goalies.

We don't have that now (goalies)... Thanks Gillis.

[elvis15]

We don't have that now (goalies)... Thanks Gillis.

They might not be the ones you want, but yeah, we do have that now.

[4thLineGrinder]

if you only draft players who can get points, if that is the only aspect of hockey you are concerned with you end up with a team like the current Edmonton oilers. Tons of top end talent, no defense, no goal tending..., how is that working out for them?

[Kryten]

Title of thread is misleading (although the article itself was misleading, and pretty much screwed the OP over). Canucks Army is the Eklund of statistics.

[poetica]

if you only draft players who can get points, if that is the only aspect of hockey you are concerned with you end up with a team like the current Edmonton oilers. Tons of top end talent, no defense, no goal tending..., how is that working out for them?

Pretty much exactly my response. Going off points alone is far too limiting as it ignores the important contributions of 2/3 of the team.

[250Integra]

Don't forget about development..

[alfstonker]

OP that is both alarming and interesting in equal measures. Thanks for your trouble.

Some people might say you end up like the Oilers, but not necessarily as your project only covers the drafting, not the trading and coaching.

Once a player is drafted and developed it then becomes the responsibility of the GM to decide who to keep and who to trade to improve potency and overall team strength.

It seems to me the Oilers management felt that just because they had the talent they had the team. I don't think that's how a good team, never mind a SC team is built.

Anyway definitely food for thought.

[Tragoedia]

Would have been more realistic if they used actual point totals as the only criteria, and didn't use only players between Vancouver picks. That's cheating, as it uses other teams scouts analyses.

[samurai]

Remember as well that we lost Luc. For me what seems kind of ironic is that just as Gillis starts stacking the cupboards with decent prospects he gets the boot. Add Stanton and Santorelli to the mix.

Stats obviously have their place but Linden I think explained it very well in his first presser and that is there are so many variables in play that good drafting is about trying to look at as much as you can and that goes beyond stats. Parents, friends, habits, attitude, health and all of that comes into play and you can only get that info by having a well-organized and deep scouting system. A scout can often learn more about the player from what he does off the ice and then what he does on it.

[TGokou]

As interesting as this article is, I think that there is no way you can predit what would've happened if Canucks had drafted those players based on stats alone. For example, it's quite likely that the farm team would be overloaded with 'skill' guys who would never develop properly because they wouldn't be getting the icetime to develop. We also wouldn't have guys like Edler and Bieksa in our lineup and our D core would be really weak.

[BurgerKing]

Wow, wonder what NHL execs would say about this, is scouting the biggest scam in the NHL? I'm assuming that most NHL teasm are aware of this info, could you imagine spending millions of dollars and countless hours on drafting and getting lesser results than some guy spending an hour on the computer. I'd be pissed if I was an owner.

[BurgerKing]

 

As interesting as this article is, I think that there is no way you can predit what would've happened if Canucks had drafted those players based on stats alone. For example, it's quite likely that the farm team would be overloaded with 'skill' guys who would never develop properly because they wouldn't be getting the icetime to develop. We also wouldn't have guys like Edler and Bieksa in our lineup and our D core would be really weak.

 

But at the end of the day you have more and quality NHL players, you can trade or sign free agents to get dmen and goalies. I don't buy the argument that the players wouldn't get an opportunity to develope, often the first year or two after being drafted you play in junior by then you have a much better idea of what you are gonna get from a player, you can split the players between AHL and ECHL according to potential, the real top end guys by then will be in the NHL. Also you can deviate from the scheme too, just apply it after the first round or after pick 10, or whatever.

I would like to hear a legit arguement against this, usually when things seem to good to be true they usually are. There has got to be a reason why this wouldn't work in real life.

[BurgerKing]

 

if you only draft players who can get points, if that is the only aspect of hockey you are concerned with you end up with a team like the current Edmonton oilers. Tons of top end talent, no defense, no goal tending..., how is that working out for them?

 

Talbot, Dubinski, Mike Richards are pretty good 2 way players, Justin william and Giroux are reliable also