Plum Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 In the last 30 years has there been a Dman under 5'10" to play over 100 games? Maybe there is a few. The point being that Subban is a long shot as a defenceman. Regardless of size, players drafted after the third round have a very small chance of playing multiple seasons in the NHL. If I had to make a bet I would say Horvat, Shinkaruk and Jensen don't become top 6 players. Because the odds favour that. Demko was the best rated goalie. But it doesn't matter. Goalies are very risky. I wouldn't waste a 1st or 2nd round pick on one unless I had no holes on my team and still probably not. About 10% of all goalies drafted start in a single NHL game. Demko has the best shot out of any goalie in the draft, but very risky. Krug, Boullion, Spurgeon are some defencemans in the NHL under 5'10. And if Subban grows an inch he'll be the same size as Barrie, Liles, Timonen, Boyle. What odds favour that? Odds shouldn't determine if a NHL player becomes a top 6 player or not. Doesn't matter that Demko was the best rated goalie? Carey Price was the best rated goalie, Lehtonen, Fleury, Bernier were all #1 rated goaltenders and now they're in the NHL. You're using a pretty dumb stat, goalies drafted in the later rounds aren't likely to play a NHL game anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumerman77 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Krug, Boullion, Spurgeon are some defencemans in the NHL under 5'10. And if Subban grows an inch he'll be the same size as Barrie, Liles, Timonen, Boyle. What odds favour that? Odds shouldn't determine if a NHL player becomes a top 6 player or not. Doesn't matter that Demko was the best rated goalie? Carey Price was the best rated goalie, Lehtonen, Fleury, Bernier were all #1 rated goaltenders and now they're in the NHL. You're using a pretty dumb stat, goalies drafted in the later rounds aren't likely to play a NHL game anyways. Exactly there are only a handful of D-men that small who play. That may make it sound like there is a decent shot, but you for get the hundreds that size who play in junior and fail to make the NHL. Once again you only look at the successful cases for goalies. You forget all the goalies that failed. I'm not saying Demko is bad. I am saying if we took a forward or D-man at 36th he would have a better shot at making the NHL (less of a risk). Check out these articles: http://www.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=455673 http://houseofpuck.com/?p=513 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
He-Lord Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Exactly there are only a handful of D-men that small who play. That may make it sound like there is a decent shot, but you for get the hundreds that size who play in junior and fail to make the NHL. Once again you only look at the successful cases for goalies. You forget all the goalies that failed. I'm not saying Demko is bad. I am saying if we took a forward or D-man at 36th he would have a better shot at making the NHL (less of a risk). Check out these articles: http://www.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=455673 http://houseofpuck.com/?p=513Thank god you aren't a scout, because you really suck at evaluating talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumerman77 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Thank god you aren't a scout, because you really suck at evaluating talent. The more you watch hockey the more you will learn. For some people it takes time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
He-Lord Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 The more you watch hockey the more you will learn. For some people it takes time.Then clearly you don't watch hockey. If you did, you'd know by now not to make assumptions about kids who haven't been in the NHL yet. There's been more than enough of people like you calling prospects busts only to have these "busts" make you look foolish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumerman77 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Then clearly you don't watch hockey. If you did, you'd know by now not to make assumptions about kids who haven't been in the NHL yet. There's been more than enough of people like you calling prospects busts only to have these "busts" make you look foolish. Read what I said. I am talking about probabilities. I never once said "busts". Our prospects before this years draft were consistently ranked in the bottom 5 in the NHL. This years draft might have moved the Canucks up to 18-25th. I am not talking about wishful thinking. I hope all the Canucks prospect pan out. I am talking about probabilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UFCanuck Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 We're looking like the Bruins prior to becoming a powerhouse. No elite prospects, no problem. Krejci, Bergeron, Marchand, and Lucic to name a few were good, not great and certainly not elite prospects. They won the cup with those guys, so sometimes 6/10 works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumerman77 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 We're looking like the Bruins prior to becoming a powerhouse. No elite prospects, no problem. Krejci, Bergeron, Marchand, and Lucic to name a few were good, not great and certainly not elite prospects. They won the cup with those guys, so sometimes 6/10 works Let's hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaudette Celly Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 I am not talking about wishful thinking. I hope all the Canucks prospect pan out. I am talking about probabilities. Okay then, here's a probability -- the vast majority of picks never make the NHL at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeNiro Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Goalies: Have: Markstrom Eriksson Demko Cannata Need: Nothing Defensemen: Have: Corrado Hutton Cederholm Tryamkin Forsling McNally Subban Need: Number 1 puck moving elite defenseman. We have alot of potential depth puck movers in Hutton, Forsling, McNally, and Subban, but they are very uncertain to make the next level. Forwards: Have: Centers: Horvat McCann Gaunce Cassels Lain Labate Right wingers: Virtanen Jensen Vey Grenier Left wingers: Shinkaruk Fox Kenins Archibald Need: One big skilled number 1 center One more scoring left winger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
He-Lord Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 We're looking like the Bruins prior to becoming a powerhouse. No elite prospects, no problem. Krejci, Bergeron, Marchand, and Lucic to name a few were good, not great and certainly not elite prospects. They won the cup with those guys, so sometimes 6/10 works Exactly. People who constantly whine about "elite" talent clearly show that they have no clue what they are talking about. We don't need "elite" talent. We just need talent. Great players with great chemistry with each other working towards the same goal: the cup.Yet people act like this is a movie or a video game, where all sports are some one-man team. We need a team, not a bunch of individuals who can't play for their teammates.So stop panicking about not having "elite" talent. We don't actually need them to be successful. Not in today's NHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumerman77 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Sure we "have" prospects. But we need better prospects to turn around the franchise. Hockey's Future ranked our prospects 27th in the league before this year's draft. Maybe we move up to 20 now. But our actual current roster looks worse (as of now that could change). It's not a good place to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumerman77 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Okay then, here's a probability -- the vast majority of picks never make the NHL at all. It seems like that is a lost point on CDC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
He-Lord Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 It seems like that is a lost point on CDC.It seems to be a lost point on you, too. He was talking about in general, for all teams. Not just us. Sure, we will have prospects that don't pan out, but so will every other team.Sure we "have" prospects. But we need better prospects to turn around the franchise. Hockey's Future ranked our prospects 27th in the league before this year's draft. Maybe we move up to 20 now. But our actual current roster looks worse (as of now that could change). It's not a good place to be in.We don't just "have" prospects. We have prospects with tons of potential. Who says we don't have prospects that can't turn around this franchise, especially after this draft? I don't care what "hockey future" says. I care about how well we develop our prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plum Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Exactly there are only a handful of D-men that small who play. That may make it sound like there is a decent shot, but you for get the hundreds that size who play in junior and fail to make the NHL. Once again you only look at the successful cases for goalies. You forget all the goalies that failed. I'm not saying Demko is bad. I am saying if we took a forward or D-man at 36th he would have a better shot at making the NHL (less of a risk). Check out these articles: http://www.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=455673 http://houseofpuck.com/?p=513 The average height of a defenceman in the NHL is 6'1, Subban is 3-4 inches below that but if he grows to 5'10 or 5'11 that won't have a significant problem at him reaching the NHL. He has the offensive skill of a defenceman to be successful in the NHL no doubt, size is becoming less of a priority in defencemans lately and I think that will continue because the game is getting faster, it is becoming more skilled and you're seeing more undersized defencemans. If you're undersized you need to have skill to make up for it and Subban has that skill to make for it. I looked at the 1st round picks on the houseofpuck website and other than maybe 2 or 3 1st round picks they were all good goaltenders. Lundqvist, Kipper, Rinne, Quick, are all great goaltenders but those are steals. Then you got Brodeur, Ward, Fleury, Price, Lehtonen, Rask, Schenider are first rounders. Let me break down the last 10 draft years for goaltenders drafted in the 1st and 2nd round (04): Schneider/Dubnyk/Schwarz/Montoya/Peters/Shantz (05): Price/Rask/Plante/Pavelec/Pelletier/Frazee (06): Bernier/Helenius/Varlamov/Irving/Neuvirth/Enroth (07): Cann/Lafleur/Gistedt/ (08): McCollum/Markstorm/Pickard/Allen/Delmas/Beskorowany/ (09): Lehner/Koskinen (10): Campbell/Visentin/Pickard/Simpson (11): Gibson/Hellberg/C.Gibson/ (12): Subban/Vasilevski/Dansk/Stolarz I don't think I can judge the 2011 draft year just yet but the 04-10 aren't too bad for busts in the 1st-2nd rounds. I agree that there is less of a risk picking a defenceman or forward but Demko was the #1 goalie in the draft just like Price, Gibson, Campbell, Lehner who are all potential or already #1 goalies. People say that you should pick defencemans in the later rounds because they aren't as developed and are potential steals because of their raw talent and I've heard the same for goalies which is true but do you draft Ekblad or some guy in the 5th round? Do you draft Demko in the 2nd round or someone else in the 5th round because the 5th rounder has raw talent? Most goalies drafted fail, just like forwards and defencemans. Cullen doesn't have a very good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Outsiders Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 Missing #1 d-man and Center Prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Threadsetter Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 I was surprised when JB traded the 50th pick for Vey especially when McKeowan was still up for grabs. Basically garrison + for Vey. Demko looks to have a huge upside. Although I strongly agree the Canucks are lacking that Elite forward prospect. Could have been Reinart, Tallon said no, I guess this mean we will have to grab one next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canucks1219 Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 I was surprised when JB traded the 50th pick for Vey especially when McKeowan was still up for grabs. Basically garrison + for Vey. Demko looks to have a huge upside. Although I strongly agree the Canucks are lacking that Elite forward prospect. Could have been Reinart, Tallon said no, I guess this mean we will have to grab one next year. I wouldn't say Garrison+ because the only other piece was the right to a player who is a long shot to be a regular in the NHL. We basically traded Garrison for Vey(+Cap space). Love Reinhart and would have liked to pick him (though not at the reported price) but I don't know if he can be considered "elite" talent. Better than "good" but perhaps not "elite". We will have to see. Back on topic, when you consider how dire our prospect situation was, all you can hope for is for it to improve. It still may not be a good situation but at the very least it has gotten better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoosh Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 One elite forwrd prospect maybe, but we've drafted semi-high now for tow years 9th & 6th, so you can't expect us to get one there. Before that we had no chance to and a top prospect with where we were digging. This year we had a chance to deal with Florida, but that most likely would have taken something out of that witch we have now, and the price was just too big to pay. I don't think we are in a hurry to find that one guy. The new regime has been on the job for like 30 days. They've done a lot in that time already. Demko in my mind was a steal at 36th and we'll see in the next 2-3 years where he is headed. Keep in mind that with the pool we have, there will be a good chance we could land that elite forward via trade or FA anyway. I think that is the better route to finding top defensemen as well. Well rounded out and NHL ready. You pretty much know what you get when the guy is 22-25 years of age. Except with Ballard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L. Stanley Posted June 29, 2014 Share Posted June 29, 2014 shinkarurk ----- kassian Virtannen Horvat Jensen Gaunce Cassels Fox Vey McCann----- pretty solid forward group - lacks an elite 1C whivh we will get next year in the draft Edler Tanev sbisa corrado Stanton ---- Tryamnik Andersson Cederholm missing 1D Lack Ericsson Canata Demko so really all we need is a 1D and a 1C and rebuild complete easier said than done, but our depth is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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