bigbadcanucks Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 If Forsling turns into anything like Tobias Enstrom (an undersized 8th round draft pick taken 239th overall), I'll be overjoyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baer. Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 Those two statements are equivalent. No they aren't. But that wasn't my point. To put a percentage chance of Gustav making the NHL is absurd, doesn't matter how you look at it. That was my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaBamba Posted December 24, 2014 Share Posted December 24, 2014 The NHL video game has ruined people's perception of what it truly takes to make the NHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2SKATES1STICK Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 NHL AHL SHL In that order those are the best hockey leagues in the world. lol nhl khl ahl nice try though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SamJamIam Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 No they aren't. But that wasn't my point. To put a percentage chance of Gustav making the NHL is absurd, doesn't matter how you look at it. That was my point. Actually they are. You just don't understand probabilities. The only difference between saying "Fifth round picks have a 10% chance of playing 100 games in the NHL" and "Gustav Forsling, a fifth rounder, has a 10% chance of playing 100 games in the NHL" is this: A prediction about a population is bounded within a confidence interval. A prediction about a specific individual is bounded by a prediction interval (which is always larger due to data scatter). If your argument is just "But you don't know for sure!", then just leave because that's an argument an idiot could make that adds nothing to the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baer. Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Alright well you have your statistics, and I have what's infront of me. I can watch him play, follow him for the next couple years, and make my dicission then. I'm not saying he will or won't make the NHL. I'm saying to dismiss him as a %10 chance of being an NHL player rather than a prospect you personally think has a chance at making the NHL, then why draft him? Obviously he has skill being in the WJHC and also he's playing with grown men with Linkoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SamJamIam Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Alright well you have your statistics, and I have what's infront of me. It's disappointing that you can write that your opinion is more important than empirical evidence because you can't be bothered to become more learned. I can watch him play, follow him for the next couple years, and make my dicission then. I'm not saying he will or won't make the NHL. I'm saying to dismiss him as a %10 chance of being an NHL player rather than a prospect you personally think has a chance at making the NHL, then why draft him? Obviously he has skill being in the WJHC and also he's playing with grown men with Linkoping. Because you think he's the best player available. But that's what every team thinks about the player they draft or they wouldn't draft them. The reality is that there are 29 other 5th rounders who their respective teams think are just as promising, albeit not promising enough to use a 1st to 4th round pick. Something has to give. When 210 players get drafted each year and maybe a few dozen players retire or get waived for the last time, the chances of ANY player making an impact in the NHL at any draft position is low aside from the first few picks. It's not that I have anything against Forsling or any other player who isn't a top pick. It's just the reality that for ANY of them to make it is slim odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derp... Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I forgot all those 29 other 5th rounders were playing pro in Europe and first unit PP with the national teams at the WJC. What percentage of them do that? and how many of those guys make the NHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plum Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Forsling will probably be on the 2nd PP unit because Hagg didn't play in any of the pre-tournament games but yeah so far Forsling has been impressing. I thought Forsling was good against us but he still was a little bit shaky defensively but he was facing Canada and I'm sure we made it difficult to make a first pass out of the zone along with trying to contain a player. He was physical though which is a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeNiro Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Forsling will probably be on the 2nd PP unit because Hagg didn't play in any of the pre-tournament games but yeah so far Forsling has been impressing. I thought Forsling was good against us but he still was a little bit shaky defensively but he was facing Canada and I'm sure we made it difficult to make a first pass out of the zone along with trying to contain a player. He was physical though which is a plus. I dunno, two goals in two games means he probably deserves to stay there until someone beats him out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
c00kies Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 Those two statements are equivalent. I think he was going for something like "every house is a home, but not every home is a house". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baer. Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 It's disappointing that you can write that your opinion is more important than empirical evidence because you can't be bothered to become more learned. I never said it was more important. I merely said I base my opinion off of how he's been playing recently, rather than basing my opinion on historical statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plum Posted December 25, 2014 Share Posted December 25, 2014 I dunno, two goals in two games means he probably deserves to stay there until someone beats him out. Hagg is their best defenceman all-around and his best quality is his offence. He played in the AHL prior to the World Juniors and had 13 points in 28 games, his spot is locked on the 1st PP and 1st pairing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canorth Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SamJamIam Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I never said it was more important. I merely said I base my opinion off of how he's been playing recently, rather than basing my opinion on historical statistics. Again, those are the same things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SamJamIam Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 I forgot all those 29 other 5th rounders were playing pro in Europe and first unit PP with the national teams at the WJC. What percentage of them do that? and how many of those guys make the NHL? What percentage of 5th (or 6th or 7th) rounders playing at the pro level in Europe and playing on a respected national team (Sweden, Russia or Finland basically) make it to the NHL? I would be interested to know. But saying these things might be an indicator of success is not the same as proof that they are. We simply don't know. Looks like I'll be sifting through some late round draft pick data for the last bit and we'll see what we find Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horvat Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 What percentage of 5th (or 6th or 7th) rounders playing at the pro level in Europe and playing on a respected national team (Sweden, Russia or Finland basically) make it to the NHL? I would be interested to know. But saying these things might be an indicator of success is not the same as proof that they are. We simply don't know. Looks like I'll be sifting through some late round draft pick data for the last bit and we'll see what we find dude give up, i dont think he cares lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeNiro Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Hagg is their best defenceman all-around and his best quality is his offence. He played in the AHL prior to the World Juniors and had 13 points in 28 games, his spot is locked on the 1st PP and 1st pairing. Yes, which leaves room for Forsling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saucypass Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Hagg is their best defenceman all-around and his best quality is his offence. He played in the AHL prior to the World Juniors and had 13 points in 28 games, his spot is locked on the 1st PP and 1st pairing. Yes, which leaves room for Forsling. And Forsling plays on the right side on the PP so he can utilize his one-timer anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plum Posted December 26, 2014 Share Posted December 26, 2014 Yes, which leaves room for Forsling. Well Aho was on the PP too, I thought their first PP was Nylander-JDLR-Wallmark-Forsling-Aho. I guess it's between Aho and Forsling for the last spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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