TGokou Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Actually a minus 72 means your not very reliable defensively no matter how you put it. You can try to throw away the fact that +\- is a useless stat but it does have its uses. I would say the difference between a +20 and plus 10 is not that much but -72 is pretty telling. Furthermore when a player ONLY has 10 points and has a plus rating that tells me he is very effective defensively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horvat Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I disagree. And Malhotra was our 3C, not 4C. 4th line players are replacement players at every level. Much easier to get than a top 6 player; cheaper through transactions and through FA. It is absolutely baffling to see someone say "We have enough prospects that are supposed to develop into top 6". You can never have enough of these players. And we certainly do not have enough prospects with top 6 upside. Not all of the guys we have will reach their potential and become NHL players, in fact the majority will not be regular NHL players. The core gone, maybe, but he's still behind some great centermen. Pettit is still behind McDavid and Strome. He's likely moving up from 4C to 3C. That's not a major role change. So if 3c and 4c isnt a big role change then it really doesnt matter what position malhotra played Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kchengc Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 So if 3c and 4c isnt a big role change then it really doesnt matter what position malhotra played I disagree. And Malhotra was our 3C, not 4C. 4th line players are replacement players at every level. Much easier to get than a top 6 player; cheaper through transactions and through FA. It is absolutely baffling to see someone say "We have enough prospects that are supposed to develop into top 6". You can never have enough of these players. And we certainly do not have enough prospects with top 6 upside. Not all of the guys we have will reach their potential and become NHL players, in fact the majority will not be regular NHL players. The core gone, maybe, but he's still behind some great centermen. Pettit is still behind McDavid and Strome. He's likely moving up from 4C to 3C. That's not a major role change. Those prospects with "top 6" potential in the late rounds are also highly unlikely to pan out, or in hockeyfuture rating system, probably a 7.0D or 6.5D type of player. Most likely their games are filled with significant holes that are unlikely to be rectified in JB's eyes. With Pettit, it is possible that although his ceiling isn't high, he may very likely to fulfil or even exceed his potential (e.g. 6.0B or 5.5B). JB clearly wants 4th liners who can play reliably for 10min without costing the team. Seriously, how often do you see those kind of reliable, discipline, large, defensively aware, can kill penalty and win key face-off type of 3rd/4th line center sitting around for your picking? However, every year there are some top 6 players FA switching teams. Usually defensive specialists cost less and thus are more likely to be locked up by their original teams, instead of hitting the free agent market that easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goal:thecup Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Who the frack cares, he is a late round pick. He probably won't even pan out. I agree with what DJ Kreuzberg was saying And to the people who just say "who cares", that's not the attitude our organization should be taking, cause if we just throw away a pick with the thought that he will never make it, the good drafting teams will take these picks seriously and end up getting something out of these picks. Teams like Detroit & LA. so GTFO then, look where Hansen was draftedThis is the first time I have tried to "multiquote" so I hope it comes out ok.Is it just me or is this thread misnamed?I came on here to learn about Kyle Pettit, not amateurs' opinions of JB's drafting.Castiel had it right in that who cares about these amateurs' opinions? JB & Co know what they are doing.And Smash is wrong because JB & Co are definitely not taking a "who cares attitude".Finally, Amish used a banned anacronym to tell Castiel to get off a thread that is supposed to be about the player (according to the title) not amateur opinions about players that should have been taken before Pettit.What could have been an interesting read about our new prospect was a very boring and somewhat aggravating spew of nonsense.What about Kyle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horvat Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 #WhatAboutKyle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowYaDrouin Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Dear lord guys... He's a 6th round pick, get over it. Our scouts obviously spent a lot of time at Erie Otter games watching Brendan Gaunce, Dane Fox, as well as other prospects that we're available in this years and next years draft and they obviously saw something the liked and took a gamble on him. ------------------------------------------------ It's very likely that he may never pan out, as someone mentioned before 95% of 6th and 7th rounders never do (which includes the 5'9, 5'8 home run picks that everyone suggested). So take a deep breath, and just relax, we have a defensive specialist in the system, lets just let him develop and then we can see where his game is in a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kooner91 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 SPENCER WATSON Vlad Tkachev Darby Llewellyn Danny Moynihan Jacob Middleton Aaron Irving Matt Mistele ASHTON SAUTNER Julian Nantel Adam Helewka Frank Hora ONDREJ KASE ADAM OLLAS MATTSSON Sebastien Aho DEVIN WILLIAMS Ty Edmonds Julio Billia Haha I know Adam Helewka. Went to school with me. Good player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luongotv Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 He's got a cool last name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elvis15 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 To the above bolded: That's your opinion and its highly subjective. I believe this was a poor pick. Where was i arguing that Pettit was a poor defensive player and since when is +/- a stat that is credible? In fact, its a highly debated and controversial stat. Connor Brown was once -72 in one season. Does that mean he is a poor defensive player? Nope. Too many factors influence +/-. Points are not everything and there are exceptions. But the rule is that even 4th line players/defensive D men still score at lower levels. Plain and simple. Look at Darren Archibald, he was a good point producer in the OHL and he was also a very strong defensive player when i watched him. He was continually used on the PK by Niagara and Barrie. But even he struggles at the NHL level. Again, he is moving up from 4C to 3C with the graduations. Is that a major role change? Pettit is no sure bet. And neither is a high upside pick. But if i'm putting my money on it, i'll take the high upside pick. My example is always Ryan Johnson. He was a very good player in junior who put up solid offensive production (50 points in 48 games in the USHL). When it became apparent he wasn't going to be able to play that same skilled style and hold down and NHL job, he focused on his faceoff ability and shot blocking. He still was able to get some offence as a 4th liner because he had that skill in junior, but even once he dropped below 10 points a year his NHL future was in question. I don't have much confidence Pettit will be able to even match Johnson's end of career production if he can't put up much for points in junior. We'll see what he can do this year with an increased role, but I would much rather use 6th/7th round picks on players with higher upside even with more risk attached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho_Path Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 My example is always Ryan Johnson. He was a very good player in junior who put up solid offensive production (50 points in 48 games in the USHL). When it became apparent he wasn't going to be able to play that same skilled style and hold down and NHL job, he focused on his faceoff ability and shot blocking. He still was able to get some offence as a 4th liner because he had that skill in junior, but even once he dropped below 10 points a year his NHL future was in question. I don't have much confidence Pettit will be able to even match Johnson's end of career production if he can't put up much for points in junior. We'll see what he can do this year with an increased role, but I would much rather use 6th/7th round picks on players with higher upside even with more risk attached. First of all (ignoring what I'm quoting), my bad on Strome. I think I was looking at the players from the Otters for the 2012-2013 season when I noticed Strome was not listed, or I overlooked his name (as I was looking for his brother primarily). As for this post I quoted, Johnson does not have the size Pettit does and was never that effective on the forecheck. Even as a penalty killer Johnson was not as effective as other players on our team. More goals were scored when he was on the ice during the PK than when our other 3rd/4th liners were out there. I haven't seen Pettit play so I'm not going to assume I know how this kid will turn out, but the Canucks scouts who watched him play a number of times this year clearly saw something in his abilities that they liked for that type of role. Regardless there isn't a high % chance given whoever we took with this pick that they'd pan out, so we'll have to wait and see with Kyle how his production improves this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peaches Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 We're complaining about a 6th round pick? Well, we need SOMETHING to complain about I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashian Kassian Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 This is the first time I have tried to "multiquote" so I hope it comes out ok. Is it just me or is this thread misnamed? I came on here to learn about Kyle Pettit, not amateurs' opinions of JB's drafting. Castiel had it right in that who cares about these amateurs' opinions? JB & Co know what they are doing. And Smash is wrong because JB & Co are definitely not taking a "who cares attitude". Finally, Amish used a banned anacronym to tell Castiel to get off a thread that is supposed to be about the player (according to the title) not amateur opinions about players that should have been taken before Pettit. What could have been an interesting read about our new prospect was a very boring and somewhat aggravating spew of nonsense. What about Kyle? I wasn't saying they were taking that attitude. Point missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeddingCrashers Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Could there be some untapped potential? He's been stuck behind many highly touted players on Erie. With a bigger role maybe as early as next year we could see a different player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Kreuzberg Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Actually a minus 72 means your not very reliable defensively no matter how you put it. You can try to throw away the fact that +\- is a useless stat but it does have its uses. I would say the difference between a +20 and plus 10 is not that much but -72 is pretty telling. Furthermore when a player ONLY has 10 points and has a plus rating that tells me he is very effective defensively I suggest reading about the +/- stat before using it in an discussion. It is a highly controversial stats among not only fans, but NHL teams and execs as well. I believe Burke used the term "Horse s@#$" to describe this stat. So lets be honest here, I am not the only one trying to throw away this stat, its merits are highly in question. In fact several studies have been made into looking into the margin of error, it ranges from 30% to as high as 40%. There are simply too many factors that influence this stat for it to be an accurate measure of defensive ability. Connor Brown went from -72, a league worst that year, but still managed to put up 53 points, got drafted funny enough #156, same as Pettit. Two years later he is +44, the CHL's leading scorer and the OHL's most outstanding player. This is a high upside pick, that is tracking well. This is the kind of player we ought to be targeting with our late round picks. So if 3c and 4c isnt a big role change then it really doesnt matter what position malhotra played I guess if you want to focus on a marginal aspect of my post then, okay. It doesn't matter what "position" Malhotra played. But a few on here imply there will be a big bump statistically due to Erie's graduations. Sure i can see a slight bump, but I would not expect a major increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJ Kreuzberg Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Those prospects with "top 6" potential in the late rounds are also highly unlikely to pan out, or in hockeyfuture rating system, probably a 7.0D or 6.5D type of player. Most likely their games are filled with significant holes that are unlikely to be rectified in JB's eyes. With Pettit, it is possible that although his ceiling isn't high, he may very likely to fulfil or even exceed his potential (e.g. 6.0B or 5.5B). JB clearly wants 4th liners who can play reliably for 10min without costing the team. Seriously, how often do you see those kind of reliable, discipline, large, defensively aware, can kill penalty and win key face-off type of 3rd/4th line center sitting around for your picking? However, every year there are some top 6 players FA switching teams. Usually defensive specialists cost less and thus are more likely to be locked up by their original teams, instead of hitting the free agent market that easily. I agree and said as much in my previous post (#81) if you chose to read it. These low upside picks are no sure bet, just like high upside picks. But i know which i would rather have. Pettit is no safer bet than any other player, simply because his upside is lower. He too has significant holes in his game, just like high upside picks do. From my viewings, he is an okay skater, but not a great one. For a big man, he is not a physical player. He does not hit as much as you like. He is simply a tall man who is good positionally and has good awareness defensively. His decisions with the puck in the offensive zone... are not the best, rushed i would say is the best word. He is in the same mold as Stefan Schneider and Kellan Lain. Big but not physical men who play an honest defensive game. We got both for free. If Pettit was a free agent signing, okay. But to expend a pick, I don't agree. Dear lord guys... He's a 6th round pick, get over it. It's very likely that he may never pan out, as someone mentioned before 95% of 6th and 7th rounders never do (which includes the 5'9, 5'8 home run picks that everyone suggested). So take a deep breath, and just relax, we have a defensive specialist in the system, lets just let him develop and then we can see where his game is in a few years. To the bolded: As we all know, we are going through a rebuilding/retooling phase. Every asset counts. Well it counts anytime really. I personally value each and every pick quite highly. Not everyone is suggesting short offensive players. But take a look at players like Axel Holmstrom who excelled at the U18s, Edgars Kulda who simply took over games at the Memorial cup. Both 6'0", both put up good numbers. Ondrej Kase as well played very well at the WJC, also good size at 6'0". Also have heard some great things about Pierre Engvall who is 6'2" and great late bloomer. No one is freaking out, so i don't know why you are suggesting people to take a deep breath and relax. I think this has been a fairly level headed discussion here. Now that Pettit is in the system, of course i wish for him to prosper and take a big step next season . But that doesn't mean i can't disagree with the pick and the philosophy behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goal:thecup Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I wasn't saying they were taking that attitude. Point missed.You weren't saying anything about Pettit.You were talking about what attitude JB & Co should have.You were rebutting Castiel who was basically saying, who cares about all this inane analysis of the 2014 draft.Which is my point, quit all this pseudo-analysis of something you know next-to-nothing about or at least put it in a thread about rating JB's 2014 draft and trade day.I don't want an argument with you over this, I just wanted to learn something about our new prospect.Again, what about Kyle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bure to Mogilny Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Thanks to the op for starting this thread im cautisly excited about this pick. Ive watched a bit of the otters games and petit for me stood out as a quiet behind the scenes workhouse kind of like hansen but i feel with more offensive possibilitys even if he hasnt in the O. Plus hes a giant and can work on his meen streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karlsson`s Flo Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 It sounds like a wait and see scenario with this kid as he's about to get a bigger role this next season. If he starts producing now that he gets better quality time and line mates he could end being a solid late round pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smashian Kassian Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 You weren't saying anything about Pettit. You were talking about what attitude JB & Co should have. You were rebutting Castiel who was basically saying, who cares about all this inane analysis of the 2014 draft. Which is my point, quit all this pseudo-analysis of something you know next-to-nothing about or at least put it in a thread about rating JB's 2014 draft and trade day. I don't want an argument with you over this, I just wanted to learn something about our new prospect. Again, what about Kyle? Why must you resort to insults? Anyone can watch players play, and give an opinion on them, on what they saw. I love how people complain about our scouting over the years, then when someone gives an opinion about a choice, suddenly "They know everything, your a idiot who knows nothing". Kyle could be a 4th line player for us down the line, and I'm going to give him a chance as a prospect definitely, but based on where our organization is now, I think taking someone with higher upside would have been the way to go, cause then it atleast gives you the chance of getting a homerun. There are good things about him anyways, so it will be interesting to see if he can improve his production and overall game with a bigger role next year with the Otters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho_Path Posted July 1, 2014 Share Posted July 1, 2014 I agree and said as much in my previous post (#81) if you chose to read it. These low upside picks are no sure bet, just like high upside picks. But i know which i would rather have. Pettit is no safer bet than any other player, simply because his upside is lower. He too has significant holes in his game, just like high upside picks do. From my viewings, he is an okay skater, but not a great one. For a big man, he is not a physical player. He does not hit as much as you like. He is simply a tall man who is good positionally and has good awareness defensively. His decisions with the puck in the offensive zone... are not the best, rushed i would say is the best word. He is in the same mold as Stefan Schneider and Kellan Lain. Big but not physical men who play an honest defensive game. We got both for free. If Pettit was a free agent signing, okay. But to expend a pick, I don't agree. To the bolded: As we all know, we are going through a rebuilding/retooling phase. Every asset counts. Well it counts anytime really. I personally value each and every pick quite highly. Not everyone is suggesting short offensive players. But take a look at players like Axel Holmstrom who excelled at the U18s, Edgars Kulda who simply took over games at the Memorial cup. Both 6'0", both put up good numbers. Ondrej Kase as well played very well at the WJC, also good size at 6'0". Also have heard some great things about Pierre Engvall who is 6'2" and great late bloomer. No one is freaking out, so i don't know why you are suggesting people to take a deep breath and relax. I think this has been a fairly level headed discussion here. Now that Pettit is in the system, of course i wish for him to prosper and take a big step next season . But that doesn't mean i can't disagree with the pick and the philosophy behind it. I think if people had posted alternatives like this, there wouldn't have been a great deal of defensive criticism done, and I don't disagree that given these players with reasonable size being available, there's definitely options that the team could have gone with at this pick, but given the amount of time that the scouts spent watching this player, it's hard to reasonably argue with the choice, unless you've seen both Kyle play a number of games and the player you're recommending we should have picked play a number of games, because stats do not show the intangibles, and a small number of game sample size won't necessarily show as much either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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