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How many years until our 1st round prospects are NHL regulars?

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#1 Rex425

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 09:37 PM

So as we all know, we have been getting good prospects in the 1st round of the nhl draft. 

The picks were- 2011:Jensen 2012:Gaunce 2013:Horvat and Shinkaruk 2014: Virtanen and McCann. Who will be ready soon? Who will be ready in 3-4 years? My guess is Jensen is ready, Gaunce needs 2 years to be a bottom six center, Horvat will be in a year, Shinkaruk will ready next year as well, Virtanen and McCann being 2 years away. 

 

I know it's kind of stupid but just take a guess on each prospect.

 


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#2 Rex425

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 09:38 PM

My bad, the title should be NHL READY not regulars.


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#3 DefendParis

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 09:44 PM

3-4 i would say for all to be ready
Gaunce 2 more years in the A is best.
Horvat 1 more year
Shinkaruk 1 year in the A is best
Virtanen 2 years
McCann 3 years
Jensen is ready, but could develop more in the A
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#4 The Great 8

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 09:48 PM

Horvat this year or next

Shinkaruk this year or next

Virtanen 2 years

McCann 3 years 

Gaunce 1-2 years

Cassels 2-3 years


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#5 Junkyard Dog

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 09:50 PM

It depends how they are at the prospects development camp, the Young Stars tournament, training camp and during the pre-season games.


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#6 Where's Wellwood

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 09:50 PM

Gaunce looked very good at the prospects camp. He might only need 1 year in the AHL or if he impresses at the main camp and preseason, he might make the team. He's clearly more ready than Horvat


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#7 Dogbyte

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 10:10 PM

My bad, the title should be NHL READY not regulars.

 

Why not just edit it?


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"What players need is the right kind of strength and power. That includes learning to understand that leverage and positioning can be just as important as raw strength when it comes to winning battles in the game. It's more about timing and athleticism --and avoiding injury--than it is about how much you can bench press. I don't know how many times I've seen a guy with the physique of a defensive end line up a guy half his size, only to bounce off when he connects. Sure, there is room in the game for big guys who can throw their weight around. But for the most part, players are smart enough to see them coming--and strong enough to protect the puck when they arrive. There are trainers out there who know how to devlop hockey-specific strength--though a trainer can help only if a player follows the program. All too often, I've seen players sign up with the best trainer, but not show up for their workouts and never to reap the benefits."

 

Bobby Orr - ORR MY STORY Viking 2013


#8 RogerEpic5

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 10:45 PM

Gaunce- within 1-2 years.

Horvat- this year or next year.

Shinkaruk- this year or next year.

Virtanen-we don't want to stunt his growth, we need to take him a bit slowly so he can fulfill expectations. He is the highest pick since the Sedins so we don't want him to become a bust. 2-3 years tops. If he's NHL ready by next year, give him a shot.

Jensen- Is NHL ready. He will want to prove himself. Sometimes there is a point where you can stunt prospects growth by not letting them have a shot at the NHL roster when he is proven.

Cassels- within 3-4 years.

Dane Fox- within 2-3 years. Let's hope his numbers last year in the OHL weren't a fluke. Lets see if he can translate this hidden gem in the AHL. Lets pretend he is the second round pick we lost last year. 

McCann- Ready in 2-3 years if he continues to become that "Ryan Kesler" type player minus the attitude. 


Edited by RogerEpic5, 11 July 2014 - 10:46 PM.

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#9 Rex425

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 10:53 PM

Why not just edit it?


How do you do it? Dosen't say edit title. Can you tell me how to?
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#10 playboi19

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 10:58 PM

Gaunce and Horvat should play some games this year. 

 

The age of 21-23 is most likely. 


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#11 TheRussianRocket™

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 10:58 PM

Horvat this year or next
Shinkaruk this year or next
Virtanen 2 years
McCann 3 years 
Gaunce 1-2 years
Cassels 2-3 years


Pretty much spot on and what I think.

Feel Shink will make it next year or year after.
Bo will make it next year
Gaunce 2 years
Virtanen 2 years
McCann 3 years
Cassels 3 years


...great minds think alike :)
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#12 Amish Rake Fighter

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 11:08 PM

Forwards 22 or 23

D men 23 or 24

Goalies 24 or 25


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#13 Gross-Misconduct

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Posted 11 July 2014 - 11:10 PM

3 1/2


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#14 Herberts Vasiljevs

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 12:18 AM

Horvat this year or next

Shinkaruk this year or next

Virtanen 2 years

McCann 3 years 

Gaunce 1-2 years

Cassels 2-3 years


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#15 Whale Tail

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 12:40 AM

Shink- Conditioning already mentioned. I think a full year in AHL will be very beneficial for him. If we have injuries I could see him getting called up though.
Bo will go back to OHL I think. JB already said he wont rush Horvat. If he does another year in OHL, hopefully he focuses on his offensive game instead of being the shutdown guy.
Gaunce - I could see him really impressing this year at camp but 1-2 year in the AHL and he will be good to go.
Virtanen - 2-3 years? Only guessing though
McCann 3 years
Cassels 3 years

I am not 100% sure if any will actually make it into the line up this year, Full time at least. The real interesting part though will be to see who is playing hardest in Utica to get the invite up to Canucks if we have an injury. Lots of competition now.

One thing I really love though is how many of our young guns seem motivated to make the jump to NHL and just improve in their own game. It's really going to push them to a new level.


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#16 MoneypuckOverlord

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 01:12 AM

Sedins didn't make an impact until 6 years later, although they were playing full time hockey.  their impact was very minimal

 

I am expecting AT LEAST 4 years for any of these guys to make an "impact."  Horvat will probably play for us 15 16 season, that said, he will be a 3rd line player, and not make a significant impact until he's like 24 or 25.  Kinda like Ryan Kesler, who didn't really break out until Sundin showed him the way, and that was 5 years later, until Kesler became a 59 point player. 

 

Sedins were not point per game guys until the 2005 2006 season, which is 6 full seasons of developing.

 

so yes... don't expect any of them to make an impact soon.


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Players Nikolaj Ehlers have been compared too by the fan base of the Vancouver Canucks.

 

1 Pavel Bure

2 Markus Naslund

3 Nathan Mackkinon

4 Jonathan Drouin.

5 Jonathan Tavares

 

http://bleacherrepor...d-top-prospects

combine results.  Ehlers 5'11 162 lbs of solid rock.  


#17 Junkyard Dog

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 01:20 AM

Sedins didn't make an impact until 6 years later, although they were playing full time hockey.  their impact was very minimal

 

I am expecting AT LEAST 4 years for any of these guys to make an "impact."  Horvat will probably play for us 15 16 season, that said, he will be a 3rd line player, and not make a significant impact until he's like 24 or 25.  Kinda like Ryan Kesler, who didn't really break out until Sundin showed him the way, and that was 5 years later, until Kesler became a 59 point player. 

 

Sedins were not point per game guys until the 2005 2006 season, which is 6 full seasons of developing.

 

so yes... don't expect any of them to make an impact soon.

 

It is kind of pushing it saying that all of our prospects won't make a significant impact until they are in their mid 20s

 

Players are very capable of making an impact a lot earlier then their mid 20's.


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#18 MoneypuckOverlord

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 02:01 AM

 

It is kind of pushing it saying that all of our prospects won't make a significant impact until they are in their mid 20s

 

Players are very capable of making an impact a lot earlier then their mid 20's.

 

well of course their capable of doing it, and I hope the prove me wrong.  But not many players picked in 24-26 picks actually make an impact in their early 20's. or at least 4-5 years later, and even that's cutting it.     It's usually when they are 24 to 25 years old when they start to hit stride, and they play their best hockey the following 6 or 7 years then start to decline.  into their early 30's.  

 

Feel free to kindly name me a  Canuck player that made an impact for the Canucks in their early 20's, i mean an "impact"  Ryan Kesler played for the Vancouver Canucks right after being drafted, although his impact with the team, was very limited.

 

 

 

Anyways, hoped to be proven wrong by our next batch of prospects.


Edited by MoneypuckOverlord, 12 July 2014 - 02:06 AM.

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Players Nikolaj Ehlers have been compared too by the fan base of the Vancouver Canucks.

 

1 Pavel Bure

2 Markus Naslund

3 Nathan Mackkinon

4 Jonathan Drouin.

5 Jonathan Tavares

 

http://bleacherrepor...d-top-prospects

combine results.  Ehlers 5'11 162 lbs of solid rock.  


#19 TGokou

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 07:05 AM

The problem in all of this is that the Canucks can't afford to drop 3 kids into the lineup in one year. We are fairly set in our lineup this year with maybe one prospect making into the lineup this year which includes Jensen. I think Kassian is at the age where he is ready to be a full contributor and not dragging the team behind. Next year, Horvat/Gaunce/Shinkaruk will likely be ready but do we have the space and willingness to accomodate them? If it was up to me, I think Gaunce is more NHL ready than Horvat and deserves the spot over Horvat.


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#20 thrago

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 07:29 AM

I think most prospects will need 2 years in junior and 1-2 years in the AHL to develop. But some may be ready sooner. That being said Jensen is the only one I would consider ready but he may need another year in the AHL also. Rushing prospects is what kills there development so the longer we can give them the better.
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#21 VegasCanuck

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 09:28 AM

I think Gaunce and Shinkaruk could earn a lot of frequent flyer miles this season going back and forth between the Canucks and Comets as they will likely be first guys for injury replacement call up.

If they don't think Horvat has anything else to learn in Junior, they will find a place for him in Vancouver.

There are always injuries in training camp, there will be unexpected positions that open up.
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#22 Standing_Tall#37

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 09:36 AM

I think Gaunce and Shinkaruk could earn a lot of frequent flyer miles this season going back and forth between the Canucks and Comets as they will likely be first guys for injury replacement call up.
If they don't think Horvat has anything else to learn in Junior, they will find a place for him in Vancouver.
There are always injuries in training camp, there will be unexpected positions that open up.


I'm not convinced that Gaunce will ever be more than a fringe NHLer, with a 50-100 game nhl career. I would like to see both Horvat and Shink make it, or at least get a 9 game tryout.
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#23 Conscience

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 09:45 AM

Horvat- another year in junior
Shink- year in AHL and then call up duties the next year
Gaunce- year in the AHL then hopefully there is room for him on the team.
Virtanen - At least 3 years, he is only 17
McCann- 3-4 years
Jensen I could see him bouncing between the A and Canucks this year.
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#24 Standing_Tall#37

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 09:56 AM

Sedins didn't make an impact until 6 years later, although they were playing full time hockey.  their impact was very minimal
 
I am expecting AT LEAST 4 years for any of these guys to make an "impact."  Horvat will probably play for us 15 16 season, that said, he will be a 3rd line player, and not make a significant impact until he's like 24 or 25.  Kinda like Ryan Kesler, who didn't really break out until Sundin showed him the way, and that was 5 years later, until Kesler became a 59 point player. 
 
Sedins were not point per game guys until the 2005 2006 season, which is 6 full seasons of developing.
 
so yes... don't expect any of them to make an impact soon.


I'm of this belief. Average nhl players develop in juniors/ahl. Top level NHL players develop in the NHL. You have to be patient and expect growing pains. But from what I've looked at so far, if a player has not played a full season in the nhl by the time they're 3rd season that they were eligible to play in the nhl, they usually become a career call up, bust or the lucky ones become a third liner or 5th D man at best.

Players should be ready to dominate by the age of 24-25, not just breaking into the league. Considering that the average nhl career is 244 games over a 5 year span, to give a player best odds at beating the average, they have to start young. 1 last stat I read is that only 1 in 25 players will play a career of 1000 games(12 seasons).

Think about that for a minute...1 in 25 draft picks should be expected to be a long term player. (That's 1 every 3.5 years for those who pencil in every Canuck draft pick as making the roster)
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#25 Gstank29

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Posted 12 July 2014 - 10:55 AM

I'm of this belief. Average nhl players develop in juniors/ahl. Top level NHL players develop in the NHL. You have to be patient and expect growing pains. But from what I've looked at so far, if a player has not played a full season in the nhl by the time they're 3rd season that they were eligible to play in the nhl, they usually become a career call up, bust or the lucky ones become a third liner or 5th D man at best.

Players should be ready to dominate by the age of 24-25, not just breaking into the league. Considering that the average nhl career is 244 games over a 5 year span, to give a player best odds at beating the average, they have to start young. 1 last stat I read is that only 1 in 25 players will play a career of 1000 games(12 seasons).

Think about that for a minute...1 in 25 draft picks should be expected to be a long term player. (That's 1 every 3.5 years for those who pencil in every Canuck draft pick as making the roster)

But you forget we have had 2 top 10 picks the last two years (usually have a long nhl career) so were more likely to have 2-4 that will have long nhl careers.

 

Also if they come out of collage it's harder for them to play 12 NHL seasons since they are anywhere from 22-25 years old


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