Jannik Hansen's Value.

[bigbadcanucks]

Ahh ok I thought you meant that as a you forgot the Conn Smyth winner

my bad

Strange Coincidentally...I was asking myself who won the Conn Smythe this past spring, and I couldn't remember. My short term memory is shot, dragon.

My mistake, dragon...you read it right...I forgot that Williams won the Conn Smythe. I should have used the word coincidentally instead of strange, seeing how it was coincidental that we both forgot about Williams winning the Conn Smythe.

Not only is my short term memory shot, but so is my command of the English vocabulary.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Source

Source

The source is me. Not trying to be glib here, just not sure what else you mean?

The stats I'm referring to are available from several sources. For SHTOI/G, I used NHL.com. For 5v5PTS/60, I used stats.hockeyanalysis.com.

The analysis is my own.

And since it was a pretty casually written post (by my standards anyway), I figured I wouldn't bother listing a bunch of data and linking a bunch of sources for numbers that everyone can access (via NHL.com, stats.hockeyanalysis.com, somekindofninja.com, behindthenet.ca, timeonice.com, et cetera).

But I suppose I can try to "source" some aspects of that post a little better, at least as it related to the two items you highlighted:

(1) The relationship between Hansen's PK icetime and his 5v5 scoring productivity.

If you'd like to see how Hansen's SHTOI/G plots against his 5v5PTS/60, here's a quick graph I made (and just for this post--so I hope you like it ):

As I said, it's not a perfect 1-to-1 but it's pretty close.

NOTE: each point represents one season (the X value is Hansen's SHTOI/G and the Y value is his 5v5PTS/60)

The blue point, representing the 2010-11 season, doesn't quite fit (at least not as perfectly as the others) with the slope, but I'd venture that it's a bit of an outlier, due to Hansen playing the majority of his minutes that season with Malhotra, against some of the toughest competition, and with less than 35% offensive zone starts. Pretty extreme usage that season so it's actually surprising that point isn't more of an outlier.

But the post was never meant to claim a pure mathematical relation between SHTOI/G and 5v5PTS/60. There are obviously many other factors in play (like QoC, QoT, and zonestarts, just for starters). And it doesn't take into account Hansen's development and progression over time.

I was just pointing out how Hansen's even strength play seems (based just on my eyetest) to be better when he's getting high PK minutes (and much worse when he's not getting prime PK opportunities). And when I looked at the numbers, I was shocked to see just how strongly they actually correlate.

Which basically confirms (at least to me) an effect I'd initially observed on the ice (just through watching the games and Hansen's performance since 2007). The numbers just made it more pronounced.

(2) Hansen's ideal icetime (the Goldilocks zone) is around 12:00 ESTOI/G:

As for why I put Hansen at a 12:00 ESTOI/G "Goldilocks" number, it's as simple as looking at his career TOI stats (from NHL.com) and where his numbers were at when he had the most success. In the seasons when I believe Hansen played his best hockey, and when the team as a whole was playing well, he was playing roughly 12:00 per game at even strength.

2010-11 Canucks icetime: http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?season=20102011&gameType=2&team=VAN&position=S&country=&status=&viewName=timeOnIce#

2011-12 Canucks icetime: http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?season=20112012&gameType=2&team=VAN&position=S&country=&status=&viewName=timeOnIce#

Torts played Hansen over 14 minutes/game at even strength in 2013-14. And that was his season average. There were games last season where Hansen was benched or demoted to the bottom of the lineup. And others where he was playing close to 20 minutes with the twins. Just have a look at his game-by-game TOI numbers from last season, where Hansen ranges from playing 23:26 on March 2nd to only 7:58 on April 1st, and with the rest of his minutes jumping all over the place throughout the season.

2013-14 Canucks icetime: http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?season=20132014&gameType=2&team=VAN&position=S&country=&status=&viewName=timeOnIce#

Hansen's game-by-game TOI: http://forecaster.thehockeynews.com/hockeynews/hockey/player.php?4608 (click on "Game Log")

And while AV played Hansen around 13:45 ESTOI/G in 2012-13, which was actually Hansen most productive season, it's worth noting that those totals included several games with the Sedins and several others on Kesler's wing (in the top-six). But the majority of Hansen's actual scoring production that season came when he played with guys like Higgins and Raymond and his best centreman by far (in teams of points/60) was Schroeder. Hansen still played his best hockey (and had his best numbers) that season when he was kept down around 12 minutes (even strength) per game. In fact, his average offensive rate actually went down whenever he had either Kesler or Henrik as his centre (and was playing their kind of minutes).

2012-13 Canucks icetime: http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?season=20122013&gameType=2&team=VAN&position=S&country=&status=&viewName=timeOnIce#

Hansen's 2012-13 WOWYs: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=731&withagainst=true&season=2012-13&sit=5v5

EDIT: additions and clarifications

[canucklehead44]

Jannik Hansen was an excellent player before last season. He put up second line numbers while also being effective defensively and on the pk.

I felt he had his breakout season after the lockout finished and a lot of CDC expected him to hit the 50 or 60 point marker for the 2013/2014 season.

Hansen finished tied 13th in even strength points for RW in the lockout year.

[spook007]

Good to read so many defending Hansen in this thread. Dumping him (or Higgins) may give room for offensive prospects, but who will do the PK. Think it was quite evident during the Luni (Torts) reign, that using your star players as PK's is not so sound in the long run.

Don't get the panic amongst some CDC'ers about leaving the young players learning their trade in the AHL? Bringing them straight into the NHL just to watch them crash and burn doesn't make sense... Sure thing is, if they out perform roster players they'll get to play, but never a bad thing to let them hone their talents in the AHL first.

[Henrik Kesler]

One thing that the anti-Hansen crowd seems to be forgetting is his shoulder injury. He dislocated his right shoulder in game 11 of the season for which he missed 11 games. He then re-injured that shoulder in the game at Carolina, the same game that Edler sustained his knee injury. Hansen essentially played the rest of the year on a right shoulder that wasn't 100%. I think with a long offseason to recovery and get stronger we will see the return of the Honey Badger this year.

[BenDrinkin]

I don't hate on Hansen, but he can't hit the side of a barn.

[oldnews]

U forgot to mention 2 STANLEY CUPS (which is the most important stat) & if you watch him play in the playoffs U would see he is a huge asset. Just ask Mr Sutter, I think he knows more than U.

That's a weak sidetrack. I can name you hundreds of players who were on a Stanley Cup roster that aren't as good as Hansen.

A red herring if there ever was one, and not a statistic.

Trying to prop up your sidetrack by pretending your point is made by Mr Sutter is also weak - Mr Sutter is the coach that uses Clifford in the most sheltered minutes on that roster in the playoffs - only the rookie Toffoli has higher offensive zone starts, and Clifford is also one of the Kings who faces the weakest quality of competition. That first fact - over 60% offensive zone starts for a fourth line depth player - tells you a lot about how much Sutter trusts Clifford. Bottom six forwards typically are capable of handling ozone stars in the 30-40% range.

And the point here is not to bust Clifford's value or run him down - he has NHL value and that alone is a quality player - but trying to run Hansen down as if inferior is simply nonsense.

What you also obviously sidetracked is the evidence of Hansen's situational use and performance in the playoffs. Not hard to see why - it flatly contradicts your denial of reality.

[oldnews]

One thing that the anti-Hansen crowd seems to be forgetting is his shoulder injury. He dislocated his right shoulder in game 11 of the season for which he missed 11 games. He then re-injured that shoulder in the game at Carolina, the same game that Edler sustained his knee injury. Hansen essentially played the rest of the year on a right shoulder that wasn't 100%. I think with a long offseason to recovery and get stronger we will see the return of the Honey Badger this year.

Yeah - I've had five of those - you don't really 'recover' midseason from that injury - you play every shift with the risk of it coming out again, and each time easier to dislocate. It it a very limiting injury.

But a lot of people here for the most part prefer to look at vacuums - context is rarely a consideration.

[Henrik Kesler]

That's a weak sidetrack. I can name you hundreds of players who were on a Stanley Cup roster that aren't as good as Hansen.

A red herring if there ever was one, and not a statistic.

Trying to prop up your sidetrack by pretending your point is made by Mr Sutter is also weak - Mr Sutter is the coach that uses Clifford in the most sheltered minutes on that roster - only the rookie Toffoli has higher offensive zone starts, and Clifford is also one of the Kings who faces the weakest quality of competition. That first fact - over 60% offensive zone starts for a fourth line depth player - tells you a lot about how much Sutter trusts Clifford.

What you also obviously sidetracked is the evidence of Hansen's situational use and performance in the playoffs. Not hard to see why - it flatly contradicts your denial of reality.

All I can say about Kyle Clifford is thank Christ MG didn't trade Hodgson for him and instead went with Kassian.

[bigbadcanucks]

One thing that the anti-Hansen crowd seems to be forgetting is his shoulder injury. He dislocated his right shoulder in game 11 of the season for which he missed 11 games. He then re-injured that shoulder in the game at Carolina, the same game that Edler sustained his knee injury. Hansen essentially played the rest of the year on a right shoulder that wasn't 100%. I think with a long offseason to recovery and get stronger we will see the return of the Honey Badger this year.

Great post...I've been banging the trade Hansen/Burrows drum all summer, but as the reality of the new season comes closer, I'm glad both of them are still around. Everyone keeps talking about this prospect being ready and that prospect being ready, when in fact, we're all conjecturing. One thing we know is that Hansen and Burrows are proven NHLers, and if we're hoping for a competitive team with a chance of making the playoffs, these two guys will probably give us a better chance at this.

I've always believed that there is great parity in the talent level at the NHL. Of course there are the rules to the exception (i.e., the superstars and stars are in a category all their own) but most of the players in the NHL fall into the meaty part of the bell curve, where it is the subtle stuff that separates them. IMO, the X factor that determines whether a player has a successful season or not is oftentimes good health. There's no doubt that players trend in one direction or another, but most of the time, a player falls off the cliff because of health reasons.

Having said all this^^^, I'm hoping Hansen, Burrows, Henrik, Daniel, Elder, Lack, Tanev all come back in good health, survive training camp and start the season firing on all cylinders.

[bigbadcanucks]

All I can say about Kyle Clifford is thank Christ MG didn't trade Hodgson for him and instead went with Kassian.

But, but, but, Kyle Clifford has two rings, and apparently his sheltered 9 minutes of play in the playoffs made him an integral contributor to the Kings road to two Stanley Cups (though he was on LTIR after Bitz got done with him in 2012).

You're absolutely right HK...so glad that Kassian is a Canuck and not Clifford.

[higgyfan]

With Kes leaving, people are going to be mighty happy Hansen is around when the team is on the PK.

Hansen is a solid 3rd liner who is very good on the PK and can score 15gs. What do people want for 2.5m?

[thema]

Trading Hansen would be a mistake IMHO.

[jdatb]

Come Playoff time does he bring what u say he does?.

No where close to the D.Kings, K.Cliffords, T.Tyfolli's etc etc etc DO.

Time to move on.

It ain't about Regular Season. PLAYOFFS is the ONLY thing that counts after 40+ years.

Hansen has become OLDNEWS my friend........

This argument convinced me. We're trading you.

EDIT: forgot to sign my name.

- JB

[aqua59]

Some people need to get over that fact that Hansen 's position can be improved upon, maybe from with in. The whole point is making upgrades, getting better.

[hearditall]

That's a weak sidetrack. I can name you hundreds of players who were on a Stanley Cup roster that aren't as good as Hansen.

A red herring if there ever was one, and not a statistic.

Trying to prop up your sidetrack by pretending your point is made by Mr Sutter is also weak - Mr Sutter is the coach that uses Clifford in the most sheltered minutes on that roster in the playoffs - only the rookie Toffoli has higher offensive zone starts, and Clifford is also one of the Kings who faces the weakest quality of competition. That first fact - over 60% offensive zone starts for a fourth line depth player - tells you a lot about how much Sutter trusts Clifford. Bottom six forwards typically are capable of handling ozone stars in the 30-40% range.

And the point here is not to bust Clifford's value or run him down - he has NHL value and that alone is a quality player - but trying to run Hansen down as if inferior is simply nonsense.

What you also obviously sidetracked is the evidence of Hansen's situational use and performance in the playoffs. Not hard to see why - it flatly contradicts your denial of reality.

I never said SPECIFICALLY K.Clifford. Not sure why U would pick the worst of the 3 players I mentioned. I Mentioned 3 names and said it was time to move on as there are lots of other types of 3rd 4th liners out there that can help us as well. Richardson was a good player for us last year but couldn't make the LA line up due to the 3 guys I mentioned. Sutter had a chance to use Richardson over Clifford but chose not to. He also chose to play King & Tyfolli also like I said.

HERE IS MY ORIGINAL POST JUST TO REMIND U.

"Come Playoff time does he bring what u say he does?.

No where close to the D.Kings, K.Cliffords, T.Tyfolli's etc etc etc DO.

Time to move on.

It ain't about Regular Season. PLAYOFFS is the ONLY thing that counts after 40+ years."

I never did compare him to JUST K.Cliffordor or say Hansen is no good. Did U watch KING & TYFOLLI in the PLAYOFFS. Yes LA has a great top 6 but those 2 guys were a huge part of there success.

I think it's time to move on like all the top contenders do & I seen Tyfolli & King do a lot more damage than hansen can come playoffs.

[Jägermeister]

I never said SPECIFICALLY K.Clifford. Not sure why U would pick the worst of the 3 players I mentioned. I Mentioned 3 names and said it was time to move on as there are lots of other types of 3rd 4th liners out there that can help us as well. Richardson was a good player for us last year but couldn't make the LA line up due to the 3 guys I mentioned. Sutter had a chance to use Richardson over Clifford but chose not to. He also chose to play King & Tyfolli also like I said.

HERE IS MY ORIGINAL POST JUST TO REMIND U.

"Come Playoff time does he bring what u say he does?.

No where close to the D.Kings, K.Cliffords, T.Tyfolli's etc etc etc DO.

Time to move on.

It ain't about Regular Season. PLAYOFFS is the ONLY thing that counts after 40+ years."

I never did compare him to JUST K.Cliffordor or say Hansen is no good. Did U watch KING & TYFOLLI in the PLAYOFFS. Yes LA has a great top 6 but those 2 guys were a huge part of there success.

I think it's time to move on like all the top contenders do & I seen Tyfolli & King do a lot more damage than hansen can come playoffs.

Lol.

You were wrong and you should feel bad.

[oldnews]

I never said SPECIFICALLY K.Clifford. Not sure why U would pick the worst of the 3 players I mentioned. I Mentioned 3 names and said it was time to move on as there are lots of other types of 3rd 4th liners out there that can help us as well. Richardson was a good player for us last year but couldn't make the LA line up due to the 3 guys I mentioned. Sutter had a chance to use Richardson over Clifford but chose not to. He also chose to play King & Tyfolli also like I said.

HERE IS MY ORIGINAL POST JUST TO REMIND U.

"Come Playoff time does he bring what u say he does?.

No where close to the D.Kings, K.Cliffords, T.Tyfolli's etc etc etc DO.

Time to move on.

It ain't about Regular Season. PLAYOFFS is the ONLY thing that counts after 40+ years."

I never did compare him to JUST K.Cliffordor or say Hansen is no good. Did U watch KING & TYFOLLI in the PLAYOFFS. Yes LA has a great top 6 but those 2 guys were a huge part of there success.

I think it's time to move on like all the top contenders do & I seen Tyfolli & King do a lot more damage than hansen can come playoffs.

Have it your way hearditall.

Would you rather we compare him to another guy you did actually also name, D KIng?

Ok.

Hansen's playoff corsi:

2012/13 +16.61 with 33.3% offensive zone starts.

2011/12 +24,78 with 43.9% offensive zone starts

2010/11 +7.32 with 36.8% offensive zone starts.

Dwight KIng:

2013/14 +7.7 with 55.5% offensive zone starts.

2012/13 -2.3 with 48% offensive zone starts.

2011/12 +0.86 with 50.6% offensive zone starts.

Hansen rocks in the playoffs. Plays a shutdown, dzone start role, faces tougher qoc, with very respectable offensive production in that context. Also kills a whole lot more penalties than Dwight King and Kyle Clifford, or Toffoli for that matter.

Do you want to compare Hansen to a rookie who was sheltered? Toffoli had 61.7% offensive zone starts (highest on the Kings) and faced a quality of competition of -5.562 in the playoffs (next to Pearson, the weakest among King forwards). No comparison to be made there between apple and orange roles. 15pts in a sheltered offensive role to Hansen's 9 points in a shutdown role in their respective Cup runs doesn't really tell you much. Likewise, King came up with 11 points to Hansen's 9. Look at the rest of the picture, and this claim falls to pieces.

"Come Playoff time does he bring what u say he does?.

No where close to the D.Kings, K.Cliffords, T.Tyfolli's etc etc etc DO."

[higgyfan]

Some people need to get over that fact that Hansen 's position can be improved upon, maybe from with in. The whole point is making upgrades, getting better.

So you are thinking that one of the prospects would be an upgrade over Hansen? Could you elaborate on that?

[oldnews]

I guess a portion of this fanbase would prefer to become Leafs-lite.

Look at what that loopy franchise does.

They run down their best two way players and usher them out of town, thinking they can easily replace those 'tweener' guys who are actually a significant part of the backbone of their franchise.

They undervalue Clarke Macarthur and let him walk for a paltry $3 million cap hit to Ottawa. What does Macarthur do? He shows the Leafs how daft they are, not by stepping up his game, but by simply continuing to do what he did for years for the Leafs. This is not lost on Ottawa, who lock him up for 5 years at 4.65 after seeing a season of what he does for their hockey club.

They buyout Grabovski, who was neck and neck with Macarthur as their best two way players - after running Grabovski's value into the ground by turning him into a shutdown center gettting 28.8% offensive zone starts, while still publicly busting his jewels as if he should be producing 2nd line offensive outcomes in that context, they waste their compliance buyout on Grabovski of all people. They show the money to Clarkson instead lol.

The Canucks have a similar bent in our fanbase, who run down the 'tweener' guys like Hansen and Higgins, who are capable of 2nd line production in 3rd line minutes at 3rd line cap hits. Two way, all situations veterans who are precisely the types of players that put a team over the top, and can step up in the lineup in a pinch.

Thinking that a couple 20 year olds are going to step in a replace the kind of balanced, all around contributions that these types of players bring is naive.