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[Trade] VAN Kellan Lain :: EDM Will Acton


Strombone1

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That doesn't really mean much though. If you look at the minus forwards on the team, aside from Vey, all the other guys - Matthias, Richardson, Hansen, Kassian, Horvat..... have less than 50% offensive zone starts - Matthias 43%, Richardson 41.3%, Hansen 48, Kassian 41.4%, Dorsett 49, Horvat 33.3.

It's largely situational.

I actually like Matthias, but when his +- is worse than even his linemates you have to acknowledge that he's not great defensively. And that's a big deal for the bottom 6, especially a center not great in faceoffs and therefore giving the other team more offensive opportunities.

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I don't know much about Acton but Lain has been a disappointment this season and has regressed from last year. His skating and puck handling both look worse. Dustin Jeffrey is due back soon from injury which would have forced Lain to the press box in Utica. Considering that Vancouver picked up Acton for essentially Utica's 5th center it sounds like a good trade.

Always great to have your input on this. We love your insights. :towel::)

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I actually like Matthias, but when his +- is worse than even his linemates you have to acknowledge that he's not great defensively. And that's a big deal for the bottom 6, especially a center not great in faceoffs and therefore giving the other team more offensive opportunities.

I don't think you have to acknowledge that at all - nor that it follows that plus/minus indicates anything at all to do with not being great defensively. Out of context it is a very reductive, relatively meaningless statistic. Some of the best defensive forwards in the NHL are minus players - simply because of their situational use. Matthias is one of only three forwards on the team who generates more offensive zone finishes than he gets starts (the others being Richardson and Kassian) - so if we were to isolate that statistic alone, we would conclude the opposite of what you have.

Matthias also has 12 takeaways to 3 giveaways (+9). Career he has 128 to 53 (+75). Same story last year: Matthias was -3, but primarily a defensive zone start forward - 43.6% offensive zone starts (and 47.6% finishes). I think it's the larger context that matters, and that doesn't necessarily indicate a poor defensive player.

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This trade happened because of a couple of reasons...we need help in face offs. Bo isn't ready yet. Lain wasn't bennings pick it was gillis. The size and face offs where deciding factors. also finally made a trade with edmonton. its nice to see considering gillis couldn't connect or try to make trades with other teams in our division. its all about reputation folks... benning has it.

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I don't mind this deal at all.

There may be the impression that Lain will be a solid bottom six 'someday' - but he's 25 years old folks - he's not a young prospect.

Acton does have a certain annoying quality about him, in a good way. He's a pain in the ass to play against type player. He's a good guy to have in your system if you get injuries to your bottom six. He's also a few years removed from the younger centers in the system, so may be helpful with them developing their two way game. One notable about Acton - he is a puck hound, A bit surprised Edmonton doesn't value that much considering how prolific they are at committing turnovers. Acton is actually capable of regaining possession.

I like the Holmberg part of the deal. I'm not going to get all excited about it, but I have seen him play enough to know that he has a strange intangible quality. He's not fast, he's not big, his game doesn't necessarily stand out much - but he's a hard worker, and you can't deny the results. Holmberg played for a very good Spokane club, but they didn't have much scoring depth by any stretch of the imagination. Aside from him (118pts) and another overager Aviani (81 pts), they had very little scoring punch up front, and a couple young defensemen (also undrafted) Gow and Fram who were ppgers. Beyond that, a severe drop off of offensive talent - so say what you want about Holmberg, but he was almost exclusively the guy to shut down on that Spokane team, and not many WHL clubs managed to do so (although the Royals did a decent job).. There's also the element that despite being an 'overager', he's yet only 20 years old, so in the scheme of things you just don't know what his eventual potential could be, particularly if he plays in a solid system with some talented forwards. A pretty good low risk addition imo - and the type of player who often gets overlooked - not very big, not skating circles around anyone - and yet there are some pretty successful NHLers who fit that description.

What.. are ... you babbling on about Holmberg? What the actual eff? :huh:

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I don't think you have to acknowledge that at all - nor that it follows that plus/minus indicates anything at all to do with not being great defensively. Out of context it is a very reductive, relatively meaningless statistic. Some of the best defensive forwards in the NHL are minus players - simply because of their situational use. Matthias is one of only three forwards on the team who generates more offensive zone finishes than he gets starts (the others being Richardson and Kassian) - so if we were to isolate that statistic alone, we would conclude the opposite of what you have.

Matthias also has 12 takeaways to 3 giveaways (+9). Career he has 128 to 53 (+75). Same story last year: Matthias was -3, but primarily a defensive zone start forward - 43.6% offensive zone starts (and 47.6% finishes). I think it's the larger context that matters, and that doesn't necessarily indicate a poor defensive player.

Finally someone who understands the incredibly limited scope of +/- as an indicator of individual defensive awareness. It is easily one of the most useless statistics individually and is only really ever useful in conjunction with deeper analysis such as you have provided.

Well done oldnews

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Horvat was going to get sent down either way. Work on his offense and speed. More trades will come. And I think we will see our only true nhl ready prospect up by trade deadline day.

So you still think Jensen and Shinkaruk should have made the opening day roster?

Do you still think they're both better than Burrows?

Have you learned your lesson?

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Lain wasn't doing much in Utica, in fact, I think he was a healthy scratch some nights.

All of the 3rd and 4th liners in Utica have been healthy scratches. Comets are carrying 26+ players and have to rotate guys in and out of the lineup regularly. It says a lot about our true prospects in Gaunce, Shinkaruk and Kenins that they've played nearly all the games for Utica.

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So you still think Jensen and Shinkaruk should have made the opening day roster?

Do you still think they're both better than Burrows?

Have you learned your lesson?

Never thought Shinkaruk should have made the team and still don't. Jensen on the other Hand should have. Never said he was a better option than Burrows Unless it was us trading him to get assets. I said he is a better option than Hansen which he still is.

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I don't think you have to acknowledge that at all - nor that it follows that plus/minus indicates anything at all to do with not being great defensively. Out of context it is a very reductive, relatively meaningless statistic. Some of the best defensive forwards in the NHL are minus players - simply because of their situational use. Matthias is one of only three forwards on the team who generates more offensive zone finishes than he gets starts (the others being Richardson and Kassian) - so if we were to isolate that statistic alone, we would conclude the opposite of what you have.

Matthias also has 12 takeaways to 3 giveaways (+9). Career he has 128 to 53 (+75). Same story last year: Matthias was -3, but primarily a defensive zone start forward - 43.6% offensive zone starts (and 47.6% finishes). I think it's the larger context that matters, and that doesn't necessarily indicate a poor defensive player.

Those are some good stats. Thanks.

Though I agree all stats are limited and need context, they are used because they do indicate something. There was a reason Edler was the worst +- last season. And being the worst +- on the team this year despite less ice time than other players, including our D, does give an indication of how effective a player is playing defensively. That's likely especially true when his +- is currently the worst in his NHL career.

So my original comment stands. I like the guy and don't want to see him traded. He plays hard, but we need faceoff wins and he's not getting them. None of our centers are. So, if I were WD I'd give Acton a try to see if he can play at least as well defensively as Matthias but win more faceoffs. Getting the puck into the offensive zone IS huge, but so is keeping the other team from getting to set up in your zone off a faceoff win.

Still, if Acton can't hold his own outside of the faceoff circle off to Utica he should go. But we need to give him a chance first.

I wonder if Matthias could play on the wing. If so we might have a solution. :)

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