[Trade] Sven Baertschi to Canucks

[250Integra]

Great move by Benning, but I'm not sure if he's worth a 2nd round pick. Bit of a risk by both the Canucks and Flames on this one.

The Canucks prospect pool DESPERATELY needs this elite level of skill. Virtanen, Jensen, Shinkaruk, Horvat and Cassels and McCann are all fantastic players, but none of them scream "elite first line talent" the way some of the other teams prospects do (eg. Drouin, Huberdeau etc.).

By getting Baertschi in, we get a purely skilled guy. He may not be flash defensively he brings great scoring talent that some of our other prospects lack, and in the grand scheme of things, I think he'll generate tremendous chemistry with some of our powerforwards and playmakers.

Also, at just over 20 Benning speeds up the rebuild process by getting rid of a 2nd round pick (that probably has a 60% chance of panning out as an NHLer 3 years down the line) for a winger with about the same chance of being a full-time NHLer, but is ready NOW.

Furthermore, this puts added pressure on Jensen and Shinkaruk to produce some offence and make the NHL jump. If they don't, consider themselves trading chips (and good ones at that) that we can use at the draft.

Those first round elite talents you listed are all top 3 picks....

[LaBamba]

I see a lot of hostility over this.

Would people be happier if we would have traded say Jensen?

Is it the unknown that captivates everyone?

Who would we draft at say #40ish that would have more upside and a better chance to be in the top 6 next season and beyond?

Like, I really must be missing something.

[R3aL]

I havent been able to post on this all day..

I love this trade! I have been high on Sven for a very long time.

Burkie and Calgary have butchered his development. He is only 22, I consider him still a high pedigree prospect and I think he could have a very bright future here with the proper development through our system.

I believe we are lucky to get a player like this for a second round pick, let alone from Calgary. And I do not understand why he is being called small? He has average height and a solid build, he may play a softer more skill based finesse game, but a team needs that and we specifically lack that in our system..

Great trade. A second rounder would most likley take 2-5 years before being considered playing in NHL, and the chance of that player making an impact is massively less then the chance Sven makes an impact on our AHL players development and making the big club.

Trust in Benning everyone, he has a 6th sense for talent, team building and player development.

[shiznak]

Baertschi immediately becomes the most skilled player with the puck in our system IMHO.

I still think Shinkaruk holds that title.

[theminister]

I still think Shinkaruk holds that title.

I strongly disagree with that.

Shink is talented but Baertschi is a level up, even comparing them at similar ages when he first got to Abby. He had terrible line mates to play with there.

It's good to have both though. Especially since the temptation, at least from the fan perspective I hope, will be that we can be even more patient with Shink now. If I had my way he'd spend another 2 full seasons in the AHL.

[TheRussianRocket.]

I still think Shinkaruk holds that title.

I disagree. Not taking anything away from Shink, but the shear talent Baertschi has (I remember from years past) is just something else.

[oldnews]

The problem is that I don't think Baertschi will produce enough to make up for it. If he's just a 40 point winger that needs to be sheltered in the playoffs whats the point of that? Its useless.

The guy has shown multiple warning signs at the AHL level, let alone the NHL.

But...

Lol. I think we may have just verified the latest King of the East Side aka KoTES account.

[thad]

I don't understand how everyone can be so upset with this deal. I mean if we can score a second for lack, it's all good. I'd trade lack for Sven straight up in the offseason. Benning has a plan and he's not scared to make a deal. He brought massive change this past year and it's going to continue. Guys are in their way out and we will be acquiring picks sooner or later.

Personally I'm excited to see what he does with this fresh start. He couldn't be getting a better opportunity, really. Goes to a good team that not only added him but Conacher as well. Add to that, he goes to his former coach. Gets a good playoff run in utica and training camp in the fall. We're setting him up beautifully.

[Derp...]

I do think this has the potential to be a Filip Forsberg type of deal. I know he is a little older, but he wasn't being used properly and wasn't having fun. For us to acquire a high skill player who has better AHL numbers than our other LW prospects is a pretty smart move. He may not be the elite talent that was once predicted, but if he can be a solid playmaker who works hard and gets some points on the PP then he has great value for a second round pick.

He seems to be able to find people in traffic and at high speeds pretty darn well and I think that makes him a great match for McCann and Virtanen honestly. Maybe even Jensen in the short term.

Smart move, super high ceiling, fairly high floor, all for a player that might not even make it to where Sven is today.

Thanks JB. You wouldn't trade a pick unless you really believe that the player you are getting back is better than what you could get.

Oh ya in other words. Word you trade Jensen for a second right now? if you would then that's the same type of deal we just got but Jensen has proven himself a little less then Sven.

[HowYaDrouin]

I disagree. Not taking anything away from Shink, but the shear talent Baertschi has (I remember from years past) is just something else.

I concur. Sven just has more raw talent than Shink does.

I also agree that this trade actually benefits Shink as it allows him to develop in the pros without the temptation to bring him up.

[oldnews]

I'd never admit this in the past, but it annoyed me that the Lames got their hands on Baertschi in the Feaster era.

Absolute fluke.

They simply did not have any business having any prospects.

It was a natural law, like Leafs falling annually.

But today they made it right by shipping him over here.

The young man has dynamic potential - it was worth the 2nd just to watch the Flames sweat it out over the next few years, hoping he doesn't reach his potential haha.

(and if they draft a Shea Weber in the 2nd round, so be it - they won't know for years )

I'd take this risk every time.

[shiznak]

I strongly disagree with that.

Shink is talented but Baertschi is a level up, even comparing them at similar ages when he first got to Abby. He had terrible line mates to play with there.

It's good to have both though. Especially since the temptation, at least from the fan perspective I hope, will be that we can be even more patient with Shink now. If I had my way he'd spend another 2 full seasons in the AHL.

Sven has better overall skills/talent (hockey IQ, playmaking, etc), but in terms of handling the puck and shooting, I think Shinkaruk has the edge.

[canuck73_3]

I still think Shinkaruk holds that title.

Having seen both play in person I disagree.

[The Bookie]

don't know if this was posted already and I'm not looking through 33pgs to find out - I tracked down flames nation's off season prospect profile (june 24 2014) of him; listed #3

Did something happen to Sven Baertschi?

The 21-year-old prospect - once the crown jewel of Calgary’s stable - has seen his stock drop considerably in the eyes of many since he was drafted 13th overall less than three full years ago. On the surface, it looks pretty cut and dry. Is there more underneath?

SVEN comes in at #3 on our 2014 Flames Fifteen.

Baertschi has now been ranked 1, 2 and 3 in successive years in the Flames Fifteen. A little bit of that is due to who’s been drafted, a little is due to the players around him developing “quicker”: but the majority is probably a result of Baertschi spending so much time in Abbotsford.

Justin Kent Ryan BoL Byron Taylor Christian 2013 2012 Sven Baertschi 2 3 4 2 4 3 3 2 1

(Editorial Note: Pike and Bader are insane.)

Baertschi is obviously not the player who scored 3 in 5 the first time we saw him. No one shoots 30%, after all. But, in my opinion, Baertschi might have the biggest offensive upside of everyone on this list - so him shooting 10% shouldn’t be out of the question. He did that over his 20 or so games in 2012-2013.

Baertschi has scored at a very good rate in the show, as well. Over 51 games, Baertschi has amassed 24 points - which means he’s getting half a point-per-game. He’s done that with an on-ice scoring percentage that’s about average (8.6%), a PDO that’s about average (1004) while remaining within 1% of the team’s relative corsi. During that time, his most-played-with players were Monahan, Kostopolous, Cammalleri, Russell, Brodie and Smith. With the exception of Cammalleri, (Brodie was still “just” a top-4 defenseman at that time), there wasn’t a lot of shot attempts being produced.

To be fair, though, Baertschi has struggled (relatively) at the AHL level. I’m not totally sure why he was sent down this season, even now - sure, his underlying stats are bad. We know that. But, the amount of 20 or 21 year old guys who can play opponents to a draw is few - a top draft pick (Hall) or a lucky dart (O’Reilly) are really the only ones who can. The thing that gets me about it is that he’s better than Monahan defensively and offensively right now and the Flames thought it would be a good idea to waste a year of Monahan’s contract while failing to apply the same logic they did to Baertschi.

But back to the AHL - Baertschi hasn’t torn up the league, posting NHLEs of 33 (.55 trans) and 26 in his two seasons there. That’s a little lower than what we’d want from a supposedly high-end prospect. When added to his NHL totals, though, they get a little better - 35 and 28. He also scored at a 2 PPG rate in the WHL in his +1 year (NHLE of 49) and an NHLE of 32 in his draft year.

Last year in the AHL was a little worse than the year before in terms of total results, but he produced more than two shots a game and still scored 29 in 41 - even though it took him 16 games to get his 5th point, something he had accomplished by game 10 at the NHL level. That’s why I’m mostly going to chalk up his issues this year to luck - I was called insane when last summer I predicted less than ~38 points from Baertschi. It is hard to score at the NHL level, guys. When we looked at his comparables at the start of 2014, he still looked good.

Also, as we know - correlation does not equal causation, but Sean Monahan had 19 points in 51 games (.37 PPG, 252nd among forwards) after Baertschi was sent down. That rate makes him a 4th liner on 20 teams in the league. Shockingly - they're probably both better players when they're together and being sheltered.

Power Play Points Secondary Assists Team Scoring Sven Baertschi 17% (5/29) 56% (9/16) 24% (29/123)

Two of Baertschi’s point splits are pretty good - he obviously didn’t get a lot of chances on the PP, as only one of his 16 assists and 4 of his 13 goals were on the PP. I bet if he had 5 or 6 bonus PP assists, no one would be worried at all. His TS% is also pretty healthy, especially when so much of his damage was at EV. His secondary assists might look more worrying, but like we've said before - they're less of a concern than the other two and can be more affected by sample size. Before this season, though, his SA% had been good (as have his PPP% and TS%), so that why I'm willing to chalk that up to bad luck.

I’m also not worried about his injuries - the issue with labelling guys as injury prone is that they really aren’t - look at a guy like Justin Williams. Lots of injuries that weren’t his fault (head, shoulder, knee… sound familiar?) and now he’s played in more than 220 straight games. Anyone can get hurt at any time. It isn’t unique to some players.

CONCLUSION

My thinking is this: Baertschi has been Flames property for three seasons. In two of those seasons, he posted an NHLE that was elite and in his last WHL season he basically just used the league. The only season in which he had poor results was this one, and even then “poor” is relative - this is a guy who has scored proficiently at every level so far and is still only 21 years old. He’s scored at the NHL level without a lot of luck and playing with players who are commonly skilled, he’s dominated the WHL and he’s shown good results in the AHL.

I’m on record as saying he needed a full year in the AHL even after he scored 3 in 5 - but almost every guy does. He’s now spent that year in the AHL, and my view is this: I’m not going to worry about a player who has amassed an average NHLE of 36 since he’s been in North America. Aside from John Gaudreau, he’s been the prospect with the best production since he’s been drafted. He will be a fixture on the first line in Calgary for the next decade - I'm sure of it.

http://flamesnation.ca/2014/6/24/the-2014-flames-fifteen-3-sven-baertschi

[48MPHSlapShot]

Question.

How would you guys feel if he had shipped off Jensen to a rival for what would most likely be a fairly low second rd pick?

[StraightFlush]

Trader Jim is one smooth criminal. He kept the roster intact, got a developed former first rounder for a blind date, and still has a bunch of assets to get picks at the draft.

Sorry Calgary, I hope you like sheep cuz you jus' got fleeced!

[oldnews]

So if there's a debate here about who is more skilled - Shinkaruk or Baertschi - what I don't get is the assumption that the 48th overall pick in the coming draft is going to be a better asset than Baertschi or even a better risk.

The risk taken here is significantly in JB's favour, while Treliving had to take the more significant risk of a loss. That certainly doesn't set it in stone that the Canucks win this deal, but the odds are certainly in JB's favour. If you look at the odds of a 13th overall sticking vs a 48th overall, the difference is quite significant.

I'm not sure how many naysayers here have bothered to look at Baertschi's actual production in context, but, looking back - and there are always later picks that exceed their draft order - where Baertschi sits relative to his draft class is fine...

There are only 22 players from the 2011 draft who have played more NHL games than Baertschi.

There are only 18 players from the 2011 draft who have scored more NHL points than Baertshi.

That is how young he is - how much development remains in front of him. There are a lot of good young players from that draft, and he's one of them. Certainly worth a 45-50 pick. The odds of drafting a comparable at that point of the draft is probably about 15-20%.

Like Kassian, Baertschi is another type of player this franchise could use - that dynamic, game changing threat that can score on any shift.

GMJB knows what he's doing.

[DeNiro]

There are only 22 players from the 2011 draft who have played more NHL games than Baertschi.

There are only 18 players from the 2011 draft who have scored more NHL points than Baertshi.

Only 10 players from the first round have scored more, and almost all of them have played over twice as many games.

[Ossi Vaananen]

don't know if this was posted already and I'm not looking through 33pgs to find out - I tracked down flames nation's off season prospect profile (june 24 2014) of him; listed #3

http://flamesnation.ca/2014/6/24/the-2014-flames-fifteen-3-sven-baertschi

Thanks for posting. The article uses NHL equivalency which is a horrible stat to judge a player. It does bring up some good points about how highly he was regarded and how his production at the NHL level is still good. The Flames could have had a gem if they just seasoned him for the entirety of a season in the AHL. Instead he was called up and down multiple times without really gaining his footing.

I hope he spends the rest of the season in Utica. As tempting as it would be to call him up, he needs to find consistency at the pro level, and could use the last 10-20 games to figure out the Canucks system. I could see this being a problem however, as his lack of opportunity with the Flames this season led him to asking for a trade. I hope he's patient and re-signs in the spring.

[messier's_elbow]

we just slipped a new prospect into our top 5 for a late 2nd round pick that we will probably end up getting back in the days leading up to the draft.

how can you people be mad about that?

1. Horvat

2. Virtanen

3. Baertschi

I disagree I think McCann and Jensen are better prospects. I don't mind the trade though.