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[Proposal] Have the lottery for 3rd Pick


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I've brought this up briefly in a thread before, but should the NHL keep the same odds, but hold the lottery for 3rd pick instead of 1st?

It would discourage tanking, as the worst team has the best chance to get third pick. And it would still provide competition at the end of the year, with the bottom 3 teams scrambling to somehow maneuver into second or third place.

Another bright side is that if a team like LA or San Jose misses the playoffs, they don't have a chance at players like McDavid or Eichel, but still some top talent.

Do you guys think it could work? Any thoughts to make it better?

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I feel like in the extreme minority but I don't mind tanking at all. It's not like the Penguins or Chicago is going for a generational talent to get stacked as hell. Only the teams that truly do need the top pick of the year will end up with it. Why would you want a team like Winnipeg or LA who are already great teams on the rise adding onto that while the rest of the teams continue to suck?

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I say they give the best odds to the 3rd last team. That way they can still tank if they want to, but actually have to play well enough not to be last.

Bad teams won't be able to pick and choose who they win or lose to so it gives everyone more incentive to play well.

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I feel like in the extreme minority but I don't mind tanking at all. It's not like the Penguins or Chicago is going for a generational talent to get stacked as hell. Only the teams that truly do need the top pick of the year will end up with it. Why would you want a team like Winnipeg or LA who are already great teams on the rise adding onto that while the rest of the teams continue to suck?

Oh man, imagine the kings missing the playoffs and getting McDavid. that would be nasty.
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Oh man, imagine the kings missing the playoffs and getting McDavid. that would be nasty.

Yeah that's disgusting to even imagine... But if every team that misses the playoffs has a chance to win the lottery then each team only has 7% chance so there is 93% chance that LA doesn't get McDavid.

I actually like the OP's proposal. In soccer, they have relegation and promotion between the premier league and the lower league and this creates some fierce matches between the bottom tier teams and occasionally, a team at the bottom of the standing to beat a team way up in the standings. Maybe a system like this can prevent the GM's of bad teams to sell all of his assets, which will surely create some competition between the bad teams.

Instead of 3rd lowest, maybe the cutoff should be at the 8th lowest to get the highest odd? So the highest odds to be assigned to the 8th worst team, then the 7th, down to the worst team. And each of the 6 teams (9th to 14th) that missed the playoffs get an equal chances on the remaining odds. The reasoning behind choosing the 8th worst team is with the assumption that the teams 9th to 14th were probably in the playoff hunt at some point or at least until the trade deadline.

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I think the best way to discourage tanking would be to have all teams who miss the playoffs have an equal chance at the pick.

You would still need to weight it a bit probably, but much less towards the worst team and have the ability to move up or down freely depending on the lottery (not limited to 4 spots).

The bottom 5 teams should have a slightly better chance at the top pick (say 10% each) than the teams who are better.

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It's an interesting idea but it seems to me that if as Wikipedia says the #30 team has a 20% chance of winning the lottery, the chance of the #30 (ie best tanking team) getting 1st overall would increase from 20% under the current system to 80% under the proposal. It makes tanking more attactive rather than less.

I'm inclined to favour a lottery ball being selected for 1st overall followed by a 2nd lottery ball being selected for 2nd overall. That would give the worst team the best chance but make it most likely that the #30 team would pick 3rd, hardly worth tanking for.

20% chance source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_Entry_Draft

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Set up the draft as a rotational order. 1st pick this year gets 30th next year. 2nd pick this year gets 1st next year and then 30th the year after that. 3rd pick this year gets 2nd next year and 1st the year after that. Each team would get the #1 OA pick every 30 years. Each team gets closer to the #1 pick every year. After a team gets the #1 pick they move to the back of the draft and pick 30th and make their way back to #1 OA

eg assuming the standings at seasons end remain the same as they currently are

2015 draft order would be;

1)Buf

2.Ari

3.Edm

4.Tor

5.Car

6.CBJ

7.NJ

8.Phi

9.Dal...

28.Stl

29.NYR

30.Ana

2016 draft order

1.Ari

2.Edm

3.Tor...

28.NYR

29.Ana

30.Buf

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Set up the draft as a rotational order. 1st pick this year gets 30th next year. 2nd pick this year gets 1st next year and then 30th the year after that. 3rd pick this year gets 2nd next year and 1st the year after that. Each team would get the #1 OA pick every 30 years. Each team gets closer to the #1 pick every year. After a team gets the #1 pick they move to the back of the draft and pick 30th and make their way back to #1 OA

eg assuming the standings at seasons end remain the same as they currently are

2015 draft order would be;

1)Buf

2.Ari

3.Edm

4.Tor

5.Car

6.CBJ

7.NJ

8.Phi

9.Dal...

28.Stl

29.NYR

30.Ana

2016 draft order

1.Ari

2.Edm

3.Tor...

28.NYR

29.Ana

30.Buf

Good idea, but problem. What if Edmonton wins the cup (God forbid - seriously) in 2016? Would they still get 1st pick in 2017?

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I feel like in the extreme minority but I don't mind tanking at all. It's not like the Penguins or Chicago is going for a generational talent to get stacked as hell. Only the teams that truly do need the top pick of the year will end up with it. Why would you want a team like Winnipeg or LA who are already great teams on the rise adding onto that while the rest of the teams continue to suck?

Agreed. The system right now is fine, IMO.

EDIT: And to the people throwing out the percentage numbers again, and using them completely incorrectly - your elementary school teachers would be ashamed of you.

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I would say that the changes happening this year and next should be enough. It won't be to the point where all 14 teams have equal chances, but the odds are much more even, making tanking a very risky maneuver.

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