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Biggest Surprises This Year (Positive and Negative)


JamesB

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As we approach the final playoff run I think it is fair to say that the Canucks are doing better than most people expected -- certainly better than I expected. The odds of making the playoffs look good and the Canucks could finish as high as 5th in the Western Conference. So I think the Canucks are a positive surprise overall.

But, as always, some things have worked out better than expected and some worse. These are my top 3 in each category.

Before I start the list, here is one background fact to keep in mind. The Canucks have 14 forwards who have played a reasonable amount (more than 20 games). If we look at points per 60 minutes played the top five Canucks in that group are, in order, Daniel, Henrik, Vrbata, Kenins, and Horvat.

Top Three Positive Surprises:

1. Horvat. No surprise that he is my top positive surprise. Most people (including me) expected him to go back to Junior this year. Even the optimists projected him as a kind of marginal 4C who would maybe hold his own while learning the NHL. (And even that is extremely good for a 19-year old.) However, as noted above, he is 5th on the team in points per 60 mins (despite almost no PP time), leads the team in face-off percentage, has gotten faster and stronger over the season, plays shutdown against top centers (Crosby, Toews, Malkin, Getzlaf, etc.) and contributes to the PK..(By the way, among young centers -- under 24 -- he has best faceoff perecentage in the league.)

2. Kenins. He has emerged as a sold bottom six winger who is 4th on the team in points per 60 minutes. With only 21 games played the sample is pretty small but, considering most of us did not know who he was at the start of the season and NO-ONE projected he would be on the team this year, that is a pretty big surprise. And he plays with high intensity, contributes to the physical game, and is good defensively (and seems to have good chemistry with Horvat, although everyone Horvat plays with seems to have good chemistry with Horvat).

3. Edler bounce-back. Edler "won" the green jacket last year with the worst plus-minus in the league at - 39. His plus/minus now is +11. We all expected a bounce-back when Willie took over the coaching duties from Bozo the Clown. But Edler's bounce-back of a change of 50 in plus/minus is huge. A lot of people like to say that plus/minus is a meaningless stat, and it is if we do not adjust for quality of competition. But Edler has faced similar or even tougher quality of competition this year relative to last year, so the huge improvement in plus-minus in meaningful. He also logs a lot of minutes, contributes to the offense and contributes to the physical game. I think he is the team MVP and the extent of his bounce-back is a big surprise.

Negative surprises.

1. Bonino. He had a big goal against LA. But it was only his 13th of the season. When he was acquired in the Kesler trade a video of Benning was widely circulated in which Benning talked about Bonino being a projected 20+ goal scorer, a good "puck distributor", and a good PP guy. Those projections turned out to be a long way off. He was good in October and November but, since then, is scoring at only the rate of less than .3 PPG. That is not good enough even for the 3C position, let alone 2C. By most reasonable objective standards, including the eye test, in the second half of the season he has not been as valuable to the team as Horvat, and how many people expected that. Let's hope he picks things up for the stretch run.

2. Vey. When Vey was acquired for second round pick, he was pencilled in to the 3C position, and that is where he started the year. Like Bonino, he had a good start but tailed off badly. Of the 14 forwards who have played more 10 games, he is 14th (i.e. last) in points per 60 minutes, despite getting a lot of PP time and playing protected minutes (i.e. rarely facing the other team's top forwards). And he contributes nothing to the physical game and is not strong defensively. He had a good game against LA, but he needs to get stronger over the summer if he is going to make the team next year.

3. Miller. He has been solid. But for a 6 million cap I think we should expect more than solid. His save percentage of 0.913 is 27th in the league among qualified goalies. Among starting goalies he is in the bottom quarter of the league. Eddie has a much better save percentage (0.920). My personal view is that the Canucks would not be in playoff position now if Miller had continued as the #1 goalie. Eddie has stolen at least 5 or 6 points in the last 10 games.

I like Bonino, Vey, and Miller. I hope they all do well. But I think they have underperformed relative to expectations.

I don't see the Sedin bounce-backs or the Burrows bounce-backs as big surprises. I think they are only slightly better than we should have reasonably expected, although they are great to see. And I don't see the continued development of Lack or Tanev as big surprises, although they are are also great to see. I put all those in the "small positive surprise" category. In the small negative category i have the below par performance of Bieksa and Hammer.

But there are a lot of things to build on. On the subject of surprises, the Canucks could surprise some people in the playoffs.

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Miller put this team in a playoff position before Lack took over when he got injured you can look at sv and gaa all you want but take a quick peek at the defense Miller had to deal with for most of the season

yes Lack stole us some points but so did Miller the point is Miller had this team in a playoff spot and was playing well

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Bonino does more than his moneys worth on the ice. He's also been injured. He may be our best forward defensively.

Vey's a rookie that has 22 points in 64 games. I don't need to say much after that besides that majority of rookies have their faults. Patience is a virtue though.

Miller is 28-15-1. 6M over 3 years is a pretty good contract. It fits our timetable perfectly. If it was more than 3 than I would have an issue. We probably wouldn't be in the playoffs without Miller even though Lack has played good. We have had success with 2 solid goalies since 2011 besides the Torts year.

These are some weak negative surprises. I guess that's a good thing though.

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I think everyone has been a good surprise. Some bigger than others.

/end thread.

^ It might seem like a useless post but it's true.

Considering I had little expectations for this team, it's overachieved a little or that I didn't realize that the team was decent.

Miller's a solid goalie for 6 M. That's what money pays you - solid to stellar, which he has been this season.

Bonino's on a nice contract for 1.9 M... 13 goals is totally fine.

Matthias is inconsistent but he can be a dominance in some games.

Kassian has been a really good surprise.

Edler's played decent to well - still gives up pucks but he's not nearly as bad as he was last year. Lol.

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Biggest surprises for me this season have been:

1-The play of Radim Vrbata. I knew he was good, but I didn't know he was THIS good. He is hands down, the most complete player on the Canucks roster who plays at an above average level in all three zones of the ice while playing at an elite level in the o-zone. IMO, he's the best player on the Canucks roster (better than the Sedins).

2-The Canucks ability to win games while they were decimated with their injuries. During this period we witnessed:

  • the best stretch of games that the Sedins have played since 2010-2011
  • the emergence of our next second line centreman (Horvat)
  • organizational depth

3-The toughness of the team, in spite of being a middleweight team playing in a heavyweight division/conference. The Canucks are below average in weight, but when they are on, they play like a pack of hyenas. I would soon prefer the Canucks to play like a pack timber wolves or lion pride, but for the time being, I'll be happy with the Canucks being a pack of hyenas or jackals.

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Positives:

Horvat

Kenins

Matthias

Negatives:

Bonino

Hamhuis

 

Yeah what's with Hamhuis this season. Other than the fact he's a vet he is a bit of a disaster. We know he can do better and it leads you to think he has an injury

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Edler's resurgence wasn't a surprise. Neither was Bonino's or Vey's declining offensive performance as the season wore on.

Horvat is the key to why the team is currently in the playoffs, so his development is a major pleasant surprise. Gives creedence to the whole rebuild movement, actually. Benning realizes that youthful enthusiasm is a big key to getting a team through rounds. This is nothing new. As long as they are physically ready, that is.

Kenins definitely came out of the blue, but imho people should be tempered on the upside. To me he looks like another Hansen, which isn't bad, but the scoring he did out of the gate shouldn't be the norm. He's a fastish grinder and energy guy.

I've been growing more and more disappointed in the play of Dan Hamhuis. He could either be on the decline due to wear and tear, or he is this seasons' Torts Edler. He's not that bad, but certainly overstated as a team's number one. (So is Edler. They are both 2-3 guys.)

Disappointed in the lack of progression in Tanev's game. Not gaining strength or a shot and he looks like an undersized shutdown specialist. Typically you want those guys to be bangers. He blocks shots though and doesn't make bad choices, but the upside is underwhelming.

Pretty much everyone else on this team is playing to expectations.

There were way more surprises on the performance levels of OTHER teams this season. A lot of decent teams decided to stink it up this season, while mediocre teams like Calgary and Winnipeg have made big strides.

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What I expected from Bonino: 40-49 points playing easy minutes, average defensively

What we're getting from Bonino: ~40 point pace playing against really tough competition, best defensive forward on the team.

I'm okay with how he's done.

Vey: He's scoring at a 30 point pace as a rookie, but he has his flaws. Hasn't been able to stay in the lineup. He isn't much of a disappointment IMO, not sure what others expected.

Positive:

Weber - He's been able to play top 4 minutes when needed, despite being a #7 D-man throughout his career

Hansen - Much better than last season

Sbisa - Despite his struggles at times, he's shown that he can handle tough minutes most of the time. I see him being a top 4 D-man in the future

Negative:

Bieksa - I think his offensive ability has completely gone away

Sestito

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Disappointed in the lack of progression in Tanev's game. Not gaining strength or a shot and he looks like an undersized shutdown specialist. Typically you want those guys to be bangers. He blocks shots though and doesn't make bad choices, but the upside is underwhelming.

I agree with your assessment of Tanev, but it wasn't really that unexpected to me. The way I see it, he will continue to improve his positioning (which is already good) over time like most defensemen, but I don't see him being able to improve in other aspects.

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I don't think bones has been a negative... He's been imperative to our success for long stretches of the season. He doesn't make 7 million... I don't expect him to win us games night in, night out.

He's done his job.

My only negative has been lack of production from the defense.

Positives all around.

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Positive Surprises:

1) Sedins. Didn't think they'd bounce back like they have, I honestly thought they were beginning a downslide in their careers and would produce 50 points this season but they've still got enough for elite first line players.

2) Vbrata. Knew he'd be good for 20 goals but didn't really expect a 30 goal scorer, that coming in part with the fact that I thought the Sedins would be on the downslide. Their games have complemented each others perfectly.

3) Horvat. Unreal, didn't think he'd even be in the NHL and he's our 3rd line center right now, scoring at a 20 goal pace as a rookie, plus he's our best faceoff man and fantastic defensively. When we decided we'd keep him around I was skeptical (0 points in his first 5 games) but he really turned his offence on and is learning and getting better faster than anyone I can recall.

4) Kenins and Hansen. May be thanks to Horvat, but like Vbrata and the twins they all complement each other so well. Hansen has taken his game to another level this season and it's thanks to the two skilled but gritty rookies.

5) Alex Edler. MVP of the team IMO by a long shot. He turned his defensive game around and isn't putting up big offensive numbers anymore, but he has shutdown just about every top line in the league with the help of Tanev. They're one of the best shutdown pairings in the game today.

6) Miller. Thought he'd have a terrible season but he's bounced back too and could be regarded as a top-10 goalie again. This team's a lot better with him than without him.

7) Lack. At times he's been brutal but he's come up with a lot of clutch performances. I don't mind seeing him let 6 in against bad teams when he's stoning the likes of the Sharks, Kings and Ducks because at the end of the day, these are the games we're going to need to be good in come playoff time.

Negative Surprises:

1) Bonino. Started strong, out-classing Kesler and now he's just invisible out there. That wicked wrist shot has disappeared and he looks disinterested or tired at times.

2) Sbisa. Our worst defenceman all season long. Kesler trade not looking so flash-hot now. Sbisa is great physically but I wouldn't want him playing over 20 minutes a night ever again.

3) Bieksa and Hamhuis. Unlike the twins, these guys have taken a big step back in their games. They're both looking slow and old out there, not putting up offensive points and often get caught flat footed.

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^ I would've agreed with you a couple weeks ago on Sbisa, but he has amped up his game to a whole new level. I can definitely see him becoming a top 4 defenceman and he has a certain grittiness that most of our team lacks. He is now showing his true potential and I'm excited about what I'm seeing.

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I think it's unfair to critique the 3 above. Vey's a rookie, Bonino is playing great despite the offense drying up, and Miller's stats are skewed from a few bad losses. Miller has been doing as expected.

Positives:

Horvat. I did not expect him to be this good. I'm blown away.

Kenins. Hitting MACHINE. Still developing, but put himself on the roster. What a stud.

Sedins: Expected better results, but didn't expect them to be top 30 in scoring.

Negatives:

Hamhuis. His play has dropped significantly. It's worrying.

Bieksa. Same reason as Hamhuis. Before he was injured, he was a turn over machine.

Play against weak teams. This baffles me. We beat the good teams, but completely fail against weak teams. It's embarrassing.

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As we approach the final playoff run I think it is fair to say that the Canucks are doing better than most people expected -- certainly better than I expected. The odds of making the playoffs look good and the Canucks could finish as high as 5th in the Western Conference. So I think the Canucks are a positive surprise overall.

But, as always, some things have worked out better than expected and some worse. These are my top 3 in each category.

Before I start the list, here is one background fact to keep in mind. The Canucks have 14 forwards who have played a reasonable amount (more than 20 games). If we look at points per 60 minutes played the top five Canucks in that group are, in order, Daniel, Henrik, Vrbata, Kenins, and Horvat.

Top Three Positive Surprises:

1. Horvat. No surprise that he is my top positive surprise. Most people (including me) expected him to go back to Junior this year. Even the optimists projected him as a kind of marginal 4C who would maybe hold his own while learning the NHL. (And even that is extremely good for a 19-year old.) However, as noted above, he is 5th on the team in points per 60 mins (despite almost no PP time), leads the team in face-off percentage, has gotten faster and stronger over the season, plays shutdown against top centers (Crosby, Toews, Malkin, Getzlaf, etc.) and contributes to the PK..(By the way, among young centers -- under 24 -- he has best faceoff perecentage in the league.)

2. Kenins. He has emerged as a sold bottom six winger who is 4th on the team in points per 60 minutes. With only 21 games played the sample is pretty small but, considering most of us did not know who he was at the start of the season and NO-ONE projected he would be on the team this year, that is a pretty big surprise. And he plays with high intensity, contributes to the physical game, and is good defensively (and seems to have good chemistry with Horvat, although everyone Horvat plays with seems to have good chemistry with Horvat).

3. Edler bounce-back. Edler "won" the green jacket last year with the worst plus-minus in the league at - 39. His plus/minus now is +11. We all expected a bounce-back when Willie took over the coaching duties from Bozo the Clown. But Edler's bounce-back of a change of 50 in plus/minus is huge. A lot of people like to say that plus/minus is a meaningless stat, and it is if we do not adjust for quality of competition. But Edler has faced similar or even tougher quality of competition this year relative to last year, so the huge improvement in plus-minus in meaningful. He also logs a lot of minutes, contributes to the offense and contributes to the physical game. I think he is the team MVP and the extent of his bounce-back is a big surprise.

Negative surprises.

1. Bonino. He had a big goal against LA. But it was only his 13th of the season. When he was acquired in the Kesler trade a video of Benning was widely circulated in which Benning talked about Bonino being a projected 20+ goal scorer, a good "puck distributor", and a good PP guy. Those projections turned out to be a long way off. He was good in October and November but, since then, is scoring at only the rate of less than .3 PPG. That is not good enough even for the 3C position, let alone 2C. By most reasonable objective standards, including the eye test, in the second half of the season he has not been as valuable to the team as Horvat, and how many people expected that. Let's hope he picks things up for the stretch run.

2. Vey. When Vey was acquired for second round pick, he was pencilled in to the 3C position, and that is where he started the year. Like Bonino, he had a good start but tailed off badly. Of the 14 forwards who have played more 10 games, he is 14th (i.e. last) in points per 60 minutes, despite getting a lot of PP time and playing protected minutes (i.e. rarely facing the other team's top forwards). And he contributes nothing to the physical game and is not strong defensively. He had a good game against LA, but he needs to get stronger over the summer if he is going to make the team next year.

3. Miller. He has been solid. But for a 6 million cap I think we should expect more than solid. His save percentage of 0.913 is 27th in the league among qualified goalies. Among starting goalies he is in the bottom quarter of the league. Eddie has a much better save percentage (0.920). My personal view is that the Canucks would not be in playoff position now if Miller had continued as the #1 goalie. Eddie has stolen at least 5 or 6 points in the last 10 games.

I like Bonino, Vey, and Miller. I hope they all do well. But I think they have underperformed relative to expectations.

I don't see the Sedin bounce-backs or the Burrows bounce-backs as big surprises. I think they are only slightly better than we should have reasonably expected, although they are great to see. And I don't see the continued development of Lack or Tanev as big surprises, although they are are also great to see. I put all those in the "small positive surprise" category. In the small negative category i have the below par performance of Bieksa and Hammer.

But there are a lot of things to build on. On the subject of surprises, the Canucks could surprise some people in the playoffs.

To be honest I think all your negatives are positives, or at least a wash. Bonino was injured for 7 games, which would actually put him at 15 goals now, and around 18 for the end of the season. Not amazing, but pretty close to the 20 goals that were called for. Also factor in a few games of rust after that.

Vey. He leads the team in rookie scoring, he has more points than Horvat. Maybe everyone forgot how effective he was at the beginning of the year, but I do agree he has cooled off.

Miller. Really? He is like one of the top in the league for shutouts (or was when he got injured) has singlehandedly won us games. Just because Lack has been good too doesn't make Miller any worse.... That is just terrible logic.

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I think everyone has been a good surprise. Some bigger than others.

/end thread.

^ It might seem like a useless post but it's true.

Considering I had little expectations for this team, it's overachieved a little or that I didn't realize that the team was decent.

Miller's a solid goalie for 6 M. That's what money pays you - solid to stellar, which he has been this season.

Bonino's on a nice contract for 1.9 M... 13 goals is totally fine.

Matthias is inconsistent but he can be a dominance in some games.

Kassian has been a really good surprise.

Edler's played decent to well - still gives up pucks but he's not nearly as bad as he was last year. Lol.

Bonino: expectations > reality

When put purely on contract worth, he's definitely worth every penny. Oldnews has excellent stats in regards to corsi that show how valuable Bonino has been this season.

CDC's (and my own) problem was expecting him to replace Kesler and unfortunately that just isn't the case. Hate him or love him, Kesler is a very very good 2 way player and hard to replace. However, given the injuries to our team this season, and the way Mccann looks to be shaping up, I'm still pleased with this trade.

For the OP, I would agree and say the team in general has really surprised me. I picked us as a bubble team, AT BEST, this season, and they've very pleasantly exceeded my expectations.

GCG!

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I am kind of surprised by the variety of opinions. I have learned a few things from reading the comments and have some pushback on a few points.

I would say that there is quite a bit of agreement that Hamhuis and Bieksa might be the biggest disappointment, whereas I rated them as only minor disappointments. I still think Hammer held the D together while Edler and Tanev were out. I think Bieksa has been somewhat more disappointing as it seems pretty clear he is not a legitimate top 4 D any more.

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