We HAVE TO draft this kid at the 2015 draft

[TOMapleLaughs]

He's rated waaay lower isnt he?

50th or so last time I looked. Not exactly the can't miss stud. (just looked at another list; 84th http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/article/53-ohl-players-in-nhl-cs-midterm-rankings )

I just argued we should take a D man. But if we're investing a first rounder, it had better be on the best of fundamentals!

He's rising fast because his season is impossible to ignore.

[Guest Dasein]

I would throw players into tiers ... if you end up with a forward and defender in the same tier and the forward doesn't jump out take the defender.

Precisely

Benning's said exactly that in multiple interviews

Select BPA with the tiebreaker going to organizational positional needs (defence)

Meanwhile, did Carolina firmly believe that Haydn Fleury was BPA? No, probably not. But they also felt, as I do, that the forwards selected beyond him weren't worth switching up the plan to acquire defense for.

And that's why that selection was a mistake - they reached with that pick and most times it doesn't work out

Fleury regressed this year - he went from 0.65PPG to 0.44PPG, and went from 3rd in team scoring to 9th

He's not going to turn out to be anything special - defencemen like Fleury are going to be a dime a dozen on the UFA and trade market. Carolina should have selected BPA because they are an organization that needs help anywhere they can get, including at forward positions (E Staal getting old, Skinner has concussion problems, and Semin - oh my god what were they thinking) - Nylander would have been the better choice, or to trade down if they aren't on sold on him and take someone else later in the draft and another player with the acquired pick

Fast forward to today - Carolina holds the 5th overall, which should pan out to be a special defenceman in Provorov (after McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin and Strome are off the board) that could anchor their franchise for years to come. Carolina is probably kicking themselves for not taking a forward to address their needs up front last year

[Guest Dasein]

In the last 10 years we have drafted 11 forwards in the first round. Currently we have Horvat and Kassian in our line up to show for it. Its not like drafting forwards is the so much more reliable bet.

BPA? Sure.

Problem number one is, we have been picking hype, not BPA in following the forward party line. Bottom line is forwards get hyped more and that jades the truth about who the BPA is. We overlooked significant flaws in some of the forwards we selected. Thats not BPA!

Problem #2 is, we cannot completely ignore one category of the draft, defence. Statistically, if we wanted a good NHL D core, our proportion of D selected in each round should at least be proportionate to the number of defenders on ice versus forwards.

Its absolutely not logical that in the last ten years never has the BPA been a D man when we went up to the podium.

Now that we have a stable of good forward prospects, unless the forward is a Bloody obvious BPA we should start accumulating some D talent!

Who said anything about reliability?

I'm not saying shy away from defenders in the 1st round because forwards are a better bet to make the NHL, so I don't know where you got that idea from

I'm arguing against the notion that we have to draft a defenseman no matter what:

We MUST address our defense no matter what.

We have to draft defencemen.

/thread.

There are some real good forwards in this draft, and if a forward is the BPA, you have to go with it

Now as you say, if it's close, then you obviously go with the organizational need, which for us is defense. That's what Benning's pretty much said all along - he will draft BPA, and the tiebreaker (if it's close) goes to the defender

But we're not going to sit there at around #20 range and take a defenceman if the BPA defender is a 2nd round-calibre defenceman when there is a 1st round-calibre forward available - that's all I'm saying

[TOMapleLaughs]

Precisely

Benning's said exactly that in multiple interviews

Select BPA with the tiebreaker going to organizational positional needs (defence)

And that's why that selection was a mistake - they reached with that pick and most times it doesn't work out

Fleury regressed this year - he went from 0.65PPG to 0.44PPG, and went from 3rd in team scoring to 9th

He's not going to turn out to be anything special - defencemen like Fleury are going to be a dime a dozen on the UFA and trade market. Carolina should have selected BPA because they are an organization that needs help anywhere they can get, including at forward positions (E Staal getting old, Skinner has concussion problems, and Semin - oh my god what were they thinking) - Nylander would have been the better choice, or to trade down if they aren't on sold on him and take someone else later in the draft and another player with the acquired pick

Fast forward to today - Carolina holds the 5th overall, which should pan out to be a special defenceman in Provorov (after McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin and Strome are off the board) that could anchor their franchise for years to come. Carolina is probably kicking themselves for not taking a forward to address their needs up front last year

I highly doubt Fleury is a bust at this point, and Carolina will have made the correct choice for their team, long-term. They may pick a defenseman again, or perhaps pick up a forward who's more talented than Nylander. Since they picked up Fleury and later traded for McKeown, they have options.

[Guest Dasein]

Personally, I think the safe bet is on the Canucks selecting QMJHL defenceman Jeremy Roy (based on where we're drafting and how JB has gone to scout him more than once)

But I'm saying that in the event that the 1st round calibre defencemen are all off the board at where we pick, or in the event where an elite forward drops to where we pick but all elite defencemen are off the board, we go with a forward

However, any time the value of a forward and a defenceman available at our selection is similar, take the defenceman

[Guest Dasein]

I highly doubt Fleury is a bust at this point, and Carolina will have made the correct choice for their team, long-term. They may pick a defenseman again, or perhaps pick up a forward who's more talented than Nylander. Since they picked up Fleury and later traded for McKeown, they have options.

I'm not saying Fleury is a bust - if you read the post, I say that guys like him are available through trades or UFA, which means that he would be an NHLer (I think Fleury has bottom-4 D upside). I'm saying that, with a 7th overall, they had a chance to take a special player, and wasted it on a role player instead

[Jiggs50]

We should draft the BPA. If he's there when we're drafting, then I'd love if we picked him.

[Jiggs50]

I'm not saying Fleury is a bust - if you read the post, I say that guys like him are available through trades or UFA, which means that he would be an NHLer (I think Fleury has bottom-4 D upside). I'm saying that, with a 7th overall, they had a chance to take a special player, and wasted it on a role player instead

I think your wrong. Fleury has high upside. Top 4 at least. Probably top 2 imo. Guys with his size and mobility are rarely available.

Carolina really could of gone in any direction. Dmen are harder to come by, so I think they made a pretty good/ safe selection.

[TOMapleLaughs]

I'm not saying Fleury is a bust - if you read the post, I say that guys like him are available through trades or UFA, which means that he would be an NHLer (I think Fleury has bottom-4 D upside). I'm saying that, with a 7th overall, they had a chance to take a special player, and wasted it on a role player instead

If Fleury pans out and is a young top-pairing defender, then he will not be available through trades or UFA. Perhaps they saw something in Nylander that made them not change their minds about Fleury. They're allowed. It's not like Nylander is a can't-miss talent. Otherwise he would've been selected before Reinhart.

[Canucks1219]

As far as this particular draft is concerned, is there a forward that will be available around our pick* (assuming of course that no one drops and we don't move up/down) that is that much better than any of the defensemen likely to be available?

I don't think so, which is why I think we'll end up picking a d-man anyways.

*18~20

[Guest Dasein]

I think your wrong. Fleury has high upside. Top 4 at least. Probably top 2 imo. Guys with his size and mobility are rarely available.

Carolina really could of gone in any direction. Dmen are harder to come by, so I think they made a pretty good/ safe selection.

Guys with his size and mobility are a dime a dozen these days. There are at least a handful available in every draft. What is rare is finding those guys with the size+mobility AND great offensive and defensive abilities like Ekblad, Bowey, Jones, Trouba, Hedman, OEL, etc

As I said above, Fleury's lack of a scoring touch makes him a lower-tier prospect than those mentioned above. He's a poor man's Theodore (who should be a top 4) so a bottom 4 is about the right projection IMO at this point

[Guest Dasein]

If Fleury pans out and is a young top-pairing defender, then he will not be available through trades or UFA. Perhaps they saw something in Nylander that made them not change their minds about Fleury. They're allowed. It's not like Nylander is a can't-miss talent. Otherwise he would've been selected before Reinhart.

Nylander wasn't a can't-miss but he was more likely to reach his potential than Fleury becoming a top 2 defender - hence the BPA and hence the wrong selection

Perhaps they saw some red flags in Nylander, but they clearly overlooked Fleury's red flags in becoming a top 2

A year after the draft, it only seems more obvious that Nylander has a higher chance of becoming an impact player than Fleury

[Odd.]

He reminds me of Jordan Eberle, not Patrick Kane tbh.

[Jiggs50]

Guys with his size and mobility are a dime a dozen these days. There are at least a handful available in every draft. What is rare is finding those guys with the size+mobility AND great offensive and defensive abilities like Ekblad, Bowey, Jones, Trouba, Hedman, OEL, etc

As I said above, Fleury's lack of a scoring touch makes him a lower-tier prospect than those mentioned above. He's a poor man's Theodore (who should be a top 4) so a bottom 4 is about the right projection IMO at this point

Dime a dozen? Like who? Please name some...

[Demolition Dangler]

He reminds me of Jordan Eberle, not Patrick Kane tbh.

A little bit of Drouin as well... If he's available, we gotta pick him.

[Canucks1219]

A little bit of Drouin as well... If he's available, we gotta pick him.

I've never heard of Drouin or Patrick Kane being comparables to Travis Konecny, so if you don't mind me asking...

Have you seen Konecny play outside of highlight packages? Like a couple full OHL games?

[Demolition Dangler]

I've never heard of Drouin or Patrick Kane being comparables to Travis Konecny, so if you don't mind me asking...

Have you seen Konecny play outside of highlight packages? Like a couple full OHL games?

I was only comparing skill, not play style. From what I heard, Konecny has been rounding out his game this season to be more reliable defensively. But count on him being a strong offensive player.

Here's a description by a scout:

November 14, 2014 – Belleville Bulls @ Ottawa – RW Travis Konecny, 5-10, 171

“This kid has elite tools. He has good hockey smarts and finds ways to get out of trouble by using his skill and speed. I n the first period, I noticed that Konecny was very calm and creative when he had the puck under pressure. He is so smart and has such a variety of moves that he can use under pressure which makes him unpredictable to the opposing team. The biggest thing that you notice is Konecny’s skating, he is an elite skater and can cover so much ice every shift. He has the ability to burn most defensemen wide and his first two strides are very explosive. Konecny also quarterbacks Ottawa’s top power play unit from the right point and was able to let go a couple of very hard one-timers that were good scoring chances. He also makes great outlet passes when breaking out of the zone on the power play and on one occasion he was able to spring a teammate on a breakaway from a pass in his own end. In the third period, Konecny let go a beautiful wrist shot from the point on the power play that found its way through traffic and into the top corner. Overall, Konecny had a strong night and, in my opinion, he should be considered a top 10 pick in this upcoming draft. As with most elite players, the puck just seems to follow him. The only knock on him is his size but he’s a tough kid and his speed and skill will make him hard to track.”

- Nick Butts

[Canucks1219]

I was only comparing skill, not play style. From what I heard, Konecny has been rounding out his game this season to be more reliable defensively. But count on him being a strong offensive player.

Here's a description by a scout:

November 14, 2014 – Belleville Bulls @ Ottawa – RW Travis Konecny, 5-10, 171

“This kid has elite tools. He has good hockey smarts and finds ways to get out of trouble by using his skill and speed. I n the first period, I noticed that Konecny was very calm and creative when he had the puck under pressure. He is so smart and has such a variety of moves that he can use under pressure which makes him unpredictable to the opposing team. The biggest thing that you notice is Konecny’s skating, he is an elite skater and can cover so much ice every shift. He has the ability to burn most defensemen wide and his first two strides are very explosive. Konecny also quarterbacks Ottawa’s top power play unit from the right point and was able to let go a couple of very hard one-timers that were good scoring chances. He also makes great outlet passes when breaking out of the zone on the power play and on one occasion he was able to spring a teammate on a breakaway from a pass in his own end. In the third period, Konecny let go a beautiful wrist shot from the point on the power play that found its way through traffic and into the top corner. Overall, Konecny had a strong night and, in my opinion, he should be considered a top 10 pick in this upcoming draft. As with most elite players, the puck just seems to follow him. The only knock on him is his size but he’s a tough kid and his speed and skill will make him hard to track.”

- Nick Butts

Ah, I see. My mistake.

I do agree that he has Drouin and Kane qualities to his game, though probably not to the degree of those 2 players.

I've heard similarities to Nick Merkley as far as play-style is concerned. Both are relatively undersized but battle harder than their respective sizes imply, have terrific hockey sense, work magic on the PP, can both shoot and make plays, and play the same C/RW position. I haven't heard of Merkley having blazing speed so Konecny probably has the advantage there.

[Demolition Dangler]

Nick Merkley would be a good pick as well, but Konecny seems to have a bit more of an edge. If any of the top 15 falls down to us, I would rather get Barzal, Zacha, or Kylington but I assume they will be gone by 20.

[BanTSN]

Reminds me of Shinkaruk. We already have Shinkaruk. So pass.