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[Proposal] Kessel worth it?

BieksaSedin

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BieksaSedin Junior Prospect

BieksaSedin

Posted
Posted

My idea:

D.Sedin(7) H.Sedin(7) Kessel(10)
H.Shinkaruk(0.925)- N. Bonino(1.7)- Z.Kassian(1.5)
S. Matthias (2.500) - B.Horvat(0.925) - A. Burrows (5)
S. Baertschi(1.250) - L. Vey (1.200) - D. Dorsett (3.100)
TOTAL 42.100
A.Edler(6)- C.Tanev (3.5)
K. Bieksa (4) - D. Hamhuis (4.250)
F. Corrado (1.250) - A. Clendening (1.250)
TOTAL 20.250
Miller (6)
Markstrom (1)
TOTAL 7
R. Luongo (0.800)
TOTAL: 69
Canucks trade L. Sbisa + 7th to PHI in exchange for prospect D. Drake
Canucks trade C.Higgins + 1st + E. Lack to TOR in exchange for forward P. Kessel
Canucks trade J. Hansen to NJD in exchange for 4th
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bigbadcanucks Canucks Second-Line

bigbadcanucks

Posted
Posted

My idea:

D.Sedin(7) H.Sedin(7) Kessel(10)
H.Shinkaruk(0.925)- N. Bonino(1.7)- Z.Kassian(1.5)
S. Matthias (2.500) - B.Horvat(0.925) - A. Burrows (5)
S. Baertschi(1.250) - L. Vey (1.200) - D. Dorsett (3.100)
TOTAL 42.100
A.Edler(6)- C.Tanev (3.5)
K. Bieksa (4) - D. Hamhuis (4.250)
F. Corrado (1.250) - A. Clendening (1.250)
TOTAL 20.250
Miller (6)
Markstrom (1)
TOTAL 7
R. Luongo (0.800)
TOTAL: 69
Canucks trade L. Sbisa + 7th to PHI in exchange for prospect D. Drake
Canucks trade C.Higgins + 1st + E. Lack to TOR in exchange for forward P. Kessel
Canucks trade J. Hansen to NJD in exchange for 4th

FYI, with the current cap situation, all of the RFAs are going to be receiving qualifying offers. As well, you've confused salaries with AAV.

No thanks to Kessel. He's got a history of being fat and out of shape. He may have decent playoff numbers, but he scores in bunches, meaning he only shows up for half the games. We have enough passengers on the team for the playoffs. We need to stock the team with more players like Bo Horvat who can give you something meaningful in the regular season and something more in the playoffs. Kessel's not that guy.

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Xbox Canucks Franchise Player

Xbox

Posted
Posted

My idea:

D.Sedin(7) H.Sedin(7) Kessel(10)
H.Shinkaruk(0.925)- N. Bonino(1.7)- Z.Kassian(1.5)
S. Matthias (2.500) - B.Horvat(0.925) - A. Burrows (5)
S. Baertschi(1.250) - L. Vey (1.200) - D. Dorsett (3.100)
TOTAL 42.100
A.Edler(6)- C.Tanev (3.5)
K. Bieksa (4) - D. Hamhuis (4.250)
F. Corrado (1.250) - A. Clendening (1.250)
TOTAL 20.250
Miller (6)
Markstrom (1)
TOTAL 7
R. Luongo (0.800)
TOTAL: 69
Canucks trade L. Sbisa + 7th to PHI in exchange for prospect D. Drake
Canucks trade C.Higgins + 1st + E. Lack to TOR in exchange for forward P. Kessel
Canucks trade J. Hansen to NJD in exchange for 4th

Kessel's only 8M a season, not 10M

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tyhee Canucks Rookie

tyhee

Posted
Posted

My idea:

D.Sedin(7) H.Sedin(7) Kessel(10)
H.Shinkaruk(0.925)- N. Bonino(1.7)- Z.Kassian(1.5)
S. Matthias (2.500) - B.Horvat(0.925) - A. Burrows (5)
S. Baertschi(1.250) - L. Vey (1.200) - D. Dorsett (3.100)
TOTAL 42.100
A.Edler(6)- C.Tanev (3.5)
K. Bieksa (4) - D. Hamhuis (4.250)
F. Corrado (1.250) - A. Clendening (1.250)
TOTAL 20.250
Miller (6)
Markstrom (1)
TOTAL 7
R. Luongo (0.800)
TOTAL: 69
Canucks trade L. Sbisa + 7th to PHI in exchange for prospect D. Drake
Canucks trade C.Higgins + 1st + E. Lack to TOR in exchange for forward P. Kessel
Canucks trade J. Hansen to NJD in exchange for 4th

1. Sbisa & 7th to Phi for Drake--hehehe. Yes, I'd do it.

2. C.Higgins + 1st + E. Lack to TOR in exchange for forward P. Kessel

I feel the same as some who have already posted. Higgins alone is too much for Kessel. A 1st is too much for Kessel. Lack is too much for Kessel.

Toronto is rebuilding, not around Kessel. There's a reason.

Can he play? Absolutely. Should Canucks get someone with too poor a work ethic to stay in shape and backcheck, as an example for the young players coming up in the next few years, and take on Kessel's salary? No.

3. J. Hansen to NJD in exchange for 4th

We obviously have completely different perceptions of Hansen's value to the Canucks. I think he's an important part of the team.

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Sbriggs Canucks Regular

Sbriggs

Posted
Posted

My idea:

D.Sedin(7) H.Sedin(7) Kessel(10)
H.Shinkaruk(0.925)- N. Bonino(1.7)- Z.Kassian(1.5)
S. Matthias (2.500) - B.Horvat(0.925) - A. Burrows (5)
S. Baertschi(1.250) - L. Vey (1.200) - D. Dorsett (3.100)
TOTAL 42.100
A.Edler(6)- C.Tanev (3.5)
K. Bieksa (4) - D. Hamhuis (4.250)
F. Corrado (1.250) - A. Clendening (1.250)
TOTAL 20.250
Miller (6)
Markstrom (1)
TOTAL 7
R. Luongo (0.800)
TOTAL: 69
Canucks trade L. Sbisa + 7th to PHI in exchange for prospect D. Drake
Canucks trade C.Higgins + 1st + E. Lack to TOR in exchange for forward P. Kessel
Canucks trade J. Hansen to NJD in exchange for 4th

Where's Verbata?

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Phil_314 Canucks Star

Phil_314

Posted
Posted

My idea:

D.Sedin(7) H.Sedin(7) Kessel(10)
H.Shinkaruk(0.925)- N. Bonino(1.7)- Z.Kassian(1.5)
S. Matthias (2.500) - B.Horvat(0.925) - A. Burrows (5)
S. Baertschi(1.250) - L. Vey (1.200) - D. Dorsett (3.100)
TOTAL 42.100
A.Edler(6)- C.Tanev (3.5)
K. Bieksa (4) - D. Hamhuis (4.250)
F. Corrado (1.250) - A. Clendening (1.250)
TOTAL 20.250
Miller (6)
Markstrom (1)
TOTAL 7
R. Luongo (0.800)
TOTAL: 69
Canucks trade L. Sbisa + 7th to PHI in exchange for prospect D. Drake
Canucks trade C.Higgins + 1st + E. Lack to TOR in exchange for forward P. Kessel
Canucks trade J. Hansen to NJD in exchange for 4th

Does Phil eat Radim for breakfast or something? I mean it would make sense as to why his cap hit got more bloated in your post.

Also, no thanks to Kessel, esp. not for that price. I'd keep Higgins if only to be a strong 3rd liner, and no way we should move either the 1st (should become a decent prospect) or Lack (I see future #1 in Eddie) for him.

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Fateless Canucks Regular

Fateless

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Posted

Higgins alone is too much for Kessel.

Dude, Toronto would have to pay us to take Phil Kessel. I wouldn't give them a thing.

I'm not a big Kessel fan and I think he is overpaid, but give me a break. Kessel puts up solid points and with the right line-mates can be a great top-line or second-line asset. To say you wouldn't take him for free or for a player like Higgins is ridiculous.

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tyhee Canucks Rookie

tyhee

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I'm not a big Kessel fan and I think he is overpaid, but give me a break. Kessel puts up solid points and with the right line-mates can be a great top-line or second-line asset. To say you wouldn't take him for free or for a player like Higgins is ridiculous.

As one of those you quoted and the one who said I wouldn't give Higgins for him, I disagree. The statement was sincere and I have reasons for it, even knowing Canucks could use another sniper. In fact, I feel strongly enough about it that I think acquiring Kessel for nothing would be an error.

There was a video someone posted a couple of months ago of Kessel not backchecking. He turned the puck over and didn't backcheck. He looked tired and very overweight.

imo that is something a retooling team that has and will in the next couple of years have quite a few young players, I'd much rather the players learn their work ethic from the twins than from someone who is only on the team for his sniping ability.

Meanwhile, let's do some statistical comparisons to see how their respective teams do with them on the ice. Most of the following is at even strength, though I also mention the power play below, which is really Kessel's only strength as I see it.

For 2014-15, Higgins scored 1.79 pts per 60 minutes played at even strength. Kessel scored 1.57 pts per 60 minutes played at even strength. Got that? Kessel is on the Leafs and paid for his production, but Higgins' individual production at 5 on 5 was greater.

Kessel scored more goals, but at even strength only scored 14 goals. Higgins scored fewer at 8, but think as well of the difference in defence. Higgins works hard, is in shape and plays intelligently. That's a lot more difference to me than 6 even strength goals and Kessel on the pp. Note as well that Higgins played the 2nd most minutes among forwards on the Canucks excellent penalty killing unit this season, just after Bonino.

Also, it is a team game. How did their teams do in goal scoring at even strength with them on the ice? Higgins GF% this season was 53.8%, best among forwards on a good Canucks team. Kessel's was 39.4%, 9th among forwards on a bad Leafs team, 6th among regular Leaf forwards. That is, for goals for and against 5 on 5, Kessel is about in the middle of a bad group of Leaf forwards, Higgins, somewhat surprisingly, tops among Canuck forwards.

Note that. Kessel is by far the more talented scorer, he makes big money for his offence, but at even strength the opponents score over 60% of the goals scored while he is on the ice-and there are eight forwards, including 5 regulars, on the Leafs who do better in that statistic. He's average.

Kessel is quite a bit better on the power play. With Kessel on the ice, the Leafs scored 29 goals on the power play and gave up 3 in 276:24. With Higgins on the power play, Canucks scored 6 goals in 128:14, a very poor showing, while giving up none. It is no surprise that people have criticized the Canucks coach for playing Higgins on the power play.

How does the team do with each of them on the penalty kill? Higgins played the 2nd most minutes among forwards on an excellent pk group, though his GA60 of 5.87 was behind most other Canuck penalty killers and was 80th of 187 forwards in the league with 50+ minutes on the pk. Nobody in his right mind would put Kessel out on the penalty kill-it would be like playing two men short.

The hated +/- stat, for the season? Higgins is 2nd among Canuck forwards at +8, Kessel tied for worst on the Leafs at -34. I don't think that means much and agree with those that think +/- is a poor stat.

CF%? At 5 on 5 Kessel is at 45.9, 11th among Leaf forwards (7th among regulars). Higgins finished the year at 50.6, 6th among Canuck forwards. If one looks at whether teammates do better or worse with the player, Kessel has a CF%RelTM of 0.7, 6th among regular Leaf forwards. Higgins has +1.6, 5th among Canucks forwards.

Of course, zone deployment also affects Corsi stats. I expected to find that Higgins' zone deployment was far tougher than Kessel's, but in fact while Higgins zone deployment is a little tougher than Kessel's, the difference is pretty small. (For those interested, Higgins at 5 on 5 for faceoffs started 31.8% of the time in the offensive zone (8th highest among Canuck forwards) and 33.5% in the defensive zone (7th of 15 Canuck forwards with over 50 minutes played 5 on 5.) Kessel started 32.2% in the offensive zone (4th among Leaf forwards) and 32.5% in the defensive zone (12th highest among Leaf forwards. I was expecting Kessel to have far more offensive starts. Perhaps with the Leafs being so bad, they couldn't get Kessel on the ice without starting him sometimes in the defensive zone. No matter-his starts are slightly more skewed to offence than Higgins even though the team started more often in the defensive zone, and relative to his team, he gets a higher portion of his starts in the offensive zone than the defensive zone by a good margin.)

The zone starts certainly didn't hurt Kessel's CF% relatively to Higgins.

Salary/Cap Hit

Kessel has 7 years remaining at a cap hit of $8 million per season.

Higgins has 2 years remaining at a cap hit of $2.5 million per season.

In my opinion with Kessel you get a sniper who can provide goals on the power play and outside of that, he's pretty much average. He's out of shape, often criticized for being overweight. His off-season work ethic and on ice work ethic on defence are imo abominable, standing out as being among the worst in the league, making him a bad example for young players and leading to the team having difference expectations of him than everyone else. All this for $8 million for another 7 years. If Kessel was a hard working fit player and sound defensively in addition to his sniping ability, that cap hit would be reasonable. He isn't and it isn't.

With Kessel already, in his 20's, not being fit and taking good care of himself, think of the risk that he'll deteriorate seriously by his mid-thirties. In my opinion there's a substantial risk that during the last half of those seven years, Kessel's production could be much less than it has been and that contract could be a truly terrible waste of money. He might continue to contribute, but remember this is not someone with a terrific offseason fitness regimen or careful eating habits.

In Higgins you get someone whose sniping days, such as they ever were, are pretty much behind him. He's intelligent, a "glue guy" (per Benning) in the dressing room, hard working, defensively, very sound with whom his teammates do better when he's on the ice than when he isn't, at least 5 on 5. His contributions may go largely unnoticed, but his team is better with him than without him and he carries what I consider a very reasonable cap hit of $2.5 million for another 2 years. He's declining, but still able to contribute.

On balance, if the Canucks were offered the rights to Kessel's contract for a 7th round pick, I think they should decline. I absolutely meant it when I said I wouldn't give Higgins for Kessel, even up.

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Rounoush Canucks Regular

Rounoush

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Posted

I'm not a big Kessel fan and I think he is overpaid, but give me a break. Kessel puts up solid points and with the right line-mates can be a great top-line or second-line asset. To say you wouldn't take him for free or for a player like Higgins is ridiculous.

I am not taking that ridiculous contract for a guy who is nothing but controversy for the team.

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