When Will Young Guys Be Able to Help the Team?

[JamesB]

Most of us can agree that one positive aspect of Benning's performance is that he has really improved the pipeline. The Canucks have more good young players in the system now that at any time in the past decade and probably longer.

But when can we reasonably expect those young guys to contribute the team? Benning has said that guys drafted now might help the team in maybe 4 years.

I decided to check out some of the data so I looked at how long it was taking for players to make the NHL after the draft and where they were in the draft. The results are not too surprising but they are interesting. To count as "making the team" the player has to play 41 NHL games in that year. Here is the list for 18 and 19 year-olds last year..

1. Last year only two Draft +1 players (i.e. 18 year-olds) played 41 or more NHL games: Ekblad (#1) and Pastrnak. (#25 -- this is a correction, thanks to Canuck Surfer). (18-year-old Sam Bennett did not play much last year.)

2. There were 12 Draft + 2 players. Here they are, with draft position in brackets:

MacKinnon (1), Barkov (2), Drouin (3), Jones (4), Lindholm (5), Monahan (6), Ristolainen (8), Horvat (9), Wennberg (14), Zadorov (16), Lazar (17), and Burakovsky (23).

3. I won't give the list, but there were 14 Draft + 3 players in the NHL.

There are some interesting points here.

1. It is very rare for Draft +1 players to play in the NHL. Unless a team drafts #1 or #2 they would not normally expect a drafted player to make the team the next year.

2. However, there are quite a few Draft + 2 players in the league (like Horvat for the Canucks). Of the top 9 picks from the 2013 draft all but one were NHL players last year. The only missing player was Nurse, who was close and is expected to play this year.

3. The number of Draft +3 players is not much more than the Draft + 2 players. This means that it is rare for players who do not make it as 19 year-olds to make the NHL as 20-year olds. Most of them play in the AHL instead. This is understandable, as 19-year players who play Junior or College in North America are not allowed to play in the AHL. If teams had that option they would use it.

4. If we add all the draft+1, draft+2 and draft+3 players together, there were 28 in the league last year. With 30 teams, the average is only about 1 player per team. So Benning is right. We do not expect a big effect from a given draft until about the draft+4 year.

4. Looking at the data more closely, a majority of 19 year olds are kind of marginal. They do not help the team a lot in their first year. They usually improve a lot in their second year (i.e. as 20 year-olds) and then they improve more as 21-year olds.

5. A lot of guys come into the league in the Draft +4 year and Draft + 5 year and Draft +6 year (21 year olds, 22 year olds, and 23 year olds). If they have not made it as NHL regulars by age 23 they will probably never be more than marginal NHL players. There are some late bloomers and most players improve a bit between 23 and 26 or 27, but the really good players are in the NHL in their early 20s.

What does this say about the Canucks?

1. Obviously things look good for Horvat.

2. It would be a bit disappointing if Virtanen did NOT make the team next year. He will be slightly behind the expectation for a #6 pick if he does not. I would expect to see Ehlers and Nylander in the NHL next year, along with Ekblad (of course), Bennet, Draisaitl, and Reinhart. However, if Virtanen does make the team we should not expect him to be more than a marginal player yet. That will take longer.

3. For low first rounders like McCann we are probably looking at two more years before he would be expected to make the team, with another year in Junior and a year in the AHL first. For Cassels the numbers would suggest two more years,maybe 3 before he makes the NHL. (It takes 3rd rounders longer, even good ones.)

4. Next year is obviously a big year for Baertschi, Clendening, and Corrado. If they do well they will make the team as marginal players and should become significant positive contributors a year or two after that. Vey needs to step up his game in 2015-16. It might be his last chance.

5. The Utica guys are at least two years from really helping the team (Shinkaruk, Gaunce, Jensen, and Pedan).

6. The 2015 draft picks are all at least 3 years away, maybe 4, as suggested by Benning.

The bottom line is that we should not expect the youth movement to contribute much in 2015-16. We might reasonably hope for a significant positive contribution in 2016-17 but 2017-18 is more likely to be the year when we really see Benning pick-ups and the 2013 draft picks have a major effect.

Of course we have very little idea of the ceiling on these players. Let's hope Benning has made good decisions.

[Supra]

People have too high expectations for Virtanen. The kid will not be a star, but rather a support player. Maybe he hits 25 goals one year, but that's a big maybe. Think David Booth or Erik Cole.

[Pears]

People have too high expectations for Virtanen. The kid will not be a star, but rather a support player. Maybe he hits 25 goals one year, but that's a big maybe. Think David Booth or Erik Cole.

What exactly are you trying to accomplish here other than get people mad?

On topic, I think they'll be able to contribute within 2 years of making the team, maybe 3 at the very longest.

[Warhippy]

I think currently any injection of youth from our organization is beneficial

Will they help us win a cup immediately? Who knows but they're young players that will energize the team and excite us fans

In the end for their development and the health of the team moving forward, they'll help immediately

[Socretes]

I think shinkaruk needs maybe a third of a season in the AHL before he is a permanent guy on this team. He should replace higgins. McCann I would give a year in the AHL.

[MJDDawg]

Good post James.

It would be interesting to know what percentage of draft picks on average actually make the NHL. Obviously there are all sorts of variables involved but it would be interesting to know.

I bring this up because CDC'ers have pretty much pencilled into our lineup pretty well every one of our picks in the last 3 years, when in fact that's probably not realistic and it would probably be a stretch to suggest that even 50% will ever become regulars for the Canucks.

[TheRussianRocket.]

1-5 years.

[Crabcakes]

Thanks for doing the research JamesB

It's a bit of a reality check for some here on CDC. Some make it sooner than 4 years of development but they are the exception. But for a good pick, 4 years should be expected.

Good post James.

It would be interesting to know what percentage of draft picks on average actually make the NHL. Obviously there are all sorts of variables involved but it would be interesting to know.

I bring this up because CDC'ers have pretty much pencilled into our lineup pretty well every one of our picks in the last 3 years, when in fact that's probably not realistic and it would probably be a stretch to suggest that even 50% will ever become regulars for the Canucks.

I would say, the link below is the definitive research on success rates for drafted players in the NHL. It's a Scott Cullen article from 2009 but I think it still holds true. Interesting stuff.

http://www2.tsn.ca/columnists/scott_cullen/?ID=267960

[Standing_Tall#37]

I think youth that is injected immediately may be able to help in 3-4 years. I think if we keep them in the minors/Ahl, for another 2-3 years it'll be 5-6 years before they're decent nhlers....IF they are to be NHLers

[bigbadcanucks]

IMO, if the prospects are 80% ready, they should be injected into the line up. I think the Canucks need to give the near-ready kids as much exposure to the Sedins as possible. By the time the prospects are 100% ready, the Sedins could very well be cashing in their NHL pension cheques.

[TexasCanuck]

Great post JamesB!

Statistics say that your evaluation of the data is correct. I'm looking forward to seeing the players who surprise us and are above the development curve.

[DinoTambo]

People have too high expectations for Virtanen. The kid will not be a star, but rather a support player. Maybe he hits 25 goals one year, but that's a big maybe. Think David Booth or Erik Cole.

Funny. I don't ever remember Booth or Cole FLYING down the wing, absorbing a hit and absolutely destroying the player trying to lay out said hit. I challenge you to google "Virtanen Reverse Hit" and tell me you're not stoked to see that transfer to the Pro game!

Bottom line, Virtanen is a BEAST! He may not have the high end talent that nets 35-40 goals/yr at the NHL level, but his will to compete, to skate at high end speed, to hit, to fight when he wants to protect a teammate, and to use an already NHL calibre shot to get himself 20-25 goals on a 2nd line would be just fine. And couple that with the fact that he's a local kid and has been a Canucks fan his entire life, ...long time suffering Canuck fans like myself will take that total package every single day of the week!

Can't wait to see this kid step into the NHL!

[5Fivehole0]

People have too high expectations for Virtanen. The kid will not be a star, but rather a support player. Maybe he hits 25 goals one year, but that's a big maybe. Think David Booth or Erik Cole.

Virtanens ceiling is around Rick Nash, I don't think he'll reach that but the kid is going to turn out better than Booth more than likely. Mad because we didn't take Ritchie or Nylander? Get off the haterade, Virtanen has a good shot at being a great player.

[Rounoush]

People have too high expectations for Virtanen. The kid will not be a star, but rather a support player. Maybe he hits 25 goals one year, but that's a big maybe. Think David Booth or Erik Cole.

Right now my comparison for Virtanen is Jeff Carter. They are both big, skilled, have excellent shots and put up similar numbers in junior.

[Canuck Surfer]

Most of us can agree that one positive aspect of Benning's performance is that he has really improved the pipeline. The Canucks have more good young players in the system now that at any time in the past decade and probably longer.

But when can we reasonably expect those young guys to contribute the team? Benning has said that guys drafted now might help the team in maybe 4 years.

I decided to check out some of the data so I looked at how long it was taking for players to make the NHL after the draft and where they were in the draft. The results are not too surprising but they are interesting. To count as "making the team" the player has to play 41 NHL games. Here is the list for 18 and 19 year-olds last year..

1. Last year only two Draft +1 players (i.e. 18 year-olds) played 41 or more NHL games: Ekblad (#1) and Pastrnak. (#14). (18-year-old Sam Bennett did not play much last year.)

2. There were 12 Draft + 2 players. Here they are, with draft position in brackets:

MacKinnon (1), Barkov (2), Drouin (3), Jones (4), Lindholm (5), Monahan (6), Ristolainen (8), Horvat (9), Wennberg (14), Zadorov (16), Lazar (17), and Burakovsky (23).

3. I won't give the list, but there were 14 Draft + 3 players in the NHL.

There are some interesting points here.

1. It is very rare for Draft +1 players to play in the NHL. Unless a team drafts #1 or #2 they would not normally expect a drafted player to make the team the next year.

2. However, there are quite a few Draft + 2 players in the league (like Horvat for the Canucks). Of the top 9 picks from the 2013 draft all but one were NHL players last year. The only missing player was Nurse, who was close and is expected to play this year.

3. The number of Draft +3 players is not much more than the Draft + 2 players. This means that it is rare for players who do not make it as 19 year-olds to make the NHL as 20-year olds. Most of them play in the AHL instead. This is understandable, as 19-year players who play Junior or College in North America are not allowed to play in the AHL. If teams had that option they would use it.

4. If we add all the draft+1, draft+2 and draft+3 players together, the average is only about 1 player per team. So Benning is right. We do not expect a big effect from a given draft until about the draft+4 year.

4. Looking at the data more closely, a majority of 19 year olds are kind of marginal. They do not help the team a lot in their first year. They usually improve a lot in their second year (i.e. as 20 year-olds) and then they improve more as 21-year olds.

5. A lot of guys come into the league in the Draft +4 year and Draft + 5 year and Draft +6 year (21 year olds, 22 year olds, and 23 year olds). If they have not made it as NHL regulars by age 23 they will probably never be more than marginal NHL players. There are some late bloomers and most players improve a bit between 23 and 26 or 27, but the really good players are in the NHL in their early 20s.

What does this say about the Canucks?

1. Obviously things look good for Horvat.

2. It would be a bit disappointing if Virtanen did NOT make the team next year. He will be slightly behind the expectation for a #6 pick if he does not. I would expect to see Ehlers and Nylander in the NHL next year, along with Ekblad (of course), Bennet, Draisaitl, and Reinhart. However, if Virtanen does make the team we should not expect him to be more than a marginal player yet. That will take longer.

3. For low first rounders like McCann we are probably looking at two more years before he would be expected to make team with another year in Junior and a year in the AHL first. For Cassels the numbers would suggest two more years,maybe 3 before he makes the NHL. (It takes 3rd rounders longer, even good ones.)

4. Next year is obviously a big year for Baertschi, Clendening, and Corrado. If the do well they will make the team as marginal players and should become significant positive contributors a year or two after that. Vey needs to step up his game in 2015-16. It might be his last chance.

5. The Utica guys are at least two years from really helping the team (Shinkaruk, Gaunce, Jensen, and Pedan).

6. The 2015 draft picks are all at least 3 years away, maybe 4, as suggested by Benning.

The bottom line is that we should not expect the youth movement to contribute much in 2015-16. We might reasonably hope for a significant positive contribution in 2016-17 but 2018-19 is more likely to be the year when we really see Benning pick-ups and the 2013 draft picks have a major effect.

Of course we have very little idea of the ceiling on these players. Let's hope Benning has made good decisions.

Plus 2

Plus 22

Plus 222

One of the best posts I have seen on CDC. Acurate, easy to understand, informative!

Just 2 cents. Of the guys like Vey, Baertschi, acquired for 2knd round picks. Where 2knd round picks have roughly a 20% chance (is the stats I have seen) of having an official NHL career, defined as 200n games plus. Would love to see an assessment of these guys (Vey, Clendenning, Baertschi) being the ones that step through the marginal player gauntlet and have an impact.

My belief is if the odds were only 20% in the pick, a guy we have had a better look at and is closer to ready is still a better odds on chance. And have been picked as at least having the skills that stand out among the guys who might or might not slip through. It only takes one to jump up and be a core top 6 / top 4, and really we have won the jackpot. I still encourage this roll of the dice...

[ShakyWalton]

You write some great posts..I like your stuff..its well thought out and presented well.+1...but there will never be a huge transfusion of youth at once on this team unless its under new owner ship..Aqua man wants $...simple as that..I actually think TL and JBs hands are tied somewhat...but this year if I was to say..Bear and Grenier will make the final roster as forwards...lets put it this way..anyone that is waiver eligble will be here...others..forget it..wont happen..I have said it before...Shink could could blow the roof off and will still be sent down..I dont think Virt is ready to be honest.

[Baggins]

I think currently any injection of youth from our organization is beneficial

Will they help us win a cup immediately? Who knows but they're young players that will energize the team and excite us fans

In the end for their development and the health of the team moving forward, they'll help immediately

Unfortunately the prospect excitement wears off pretty quick if he doesn't produce. Unrealistic expectations. All our prospects won't be stars and nobody can predict who will be.

Let them develop before tossing them in the deep end. Long term they'll be better players for it.

[Erik Karlsson]

Funny. I don't ever remember Booth or Cole FLYING down the wing, absorbing a hit and absolutely destroying the player trying to lay out said hit. I challenge you to google "Virtanen Reverse Hit" and tell me you're not stoked to see that transfer to the Pro game!

Bottom line, Virtanen is a BEAST! He may not have the high end talent that nets 35-40 goals/yr at the NHL level, but his will to compete, to skate at high end speed, to hit, to fight when he wants to protect a teammate, and to use an already NHL calibre shot to get himself 20-25 goals on a 2nd line would be just fine. And couple that with the fact that he's a local kid and has been a Canucks fan his entire life, ...long time suffering Canuck fans like myself will take that total package every single day of the week!

Can't wait to see this kid step into the NHL!

This, also Lucic never even got to ppg in jrs and he's scored 30 goals.

Virtanen is much faster, has a better shot and is more talented offensively. I think he'll score 30+ goals a few times during his career.

He didn't have an off season last year to train and I'm sure his shoulder injury affected his shot.

After working with the nucks 5 days a week during this off season and working on his shot, people are going to see why he went 6th overall come training camp.

[DownUndaCanuck]

I expect Horvat to help obviously as 2nd or 3rd line center, Vey to help, but these guys are years off their draft class. Baertschi is the same.

Cassels is the only sort-of-recent draftee that may contribute and that would be as a 4th line center. Shinkaruk and Gaunce are still going to be fighting it out with the veterans for a roster place.

As we've seen, it takes about 3-5 years before a draftee in Vancouver can become any help at all to the big club.

[Jetliner]

i see virtanen's bottom as a raffi torres given his size and speed. His projection is lucic less the douche factor and more points. 70+ pt first line pwr forward. YeAH