baumerman77 Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 You are completely out of it, if you aren't winning at least 50% of your face offs, that means half the time after a whistle, the opponent has possession... Offensively, and defensively... That is huge. Think about it. He takes 100 faceoffs and wins 52 (and loses 48) does that really give him an edge? It's a slightly slightly weighted coin toss. Face-offs are largely overvalued. In specific contexts they are very important but even the best guys can only win max 60% of the time. Sutter last year won 688 face-offs and lost 671 that a difference of 17 face-offs spread over 80 games. He was 1 faceoff over .500 every 5 games. Not really a game changer stat. Here are some source to check out: http://oilersnation.com/2011/8/1/the-overrated-value-of-a-faceoff http://www.hockeywilderness.com/2014/11/6/7155985/faceoffs-nhl-possession-correlation-do-faceoffs-matter http://bloguin.com/puckdrunklove/2015-articles/is-it-really-that-important-to-win-faceoffs-in-the-nhl.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Weasel Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 i'm starting to think that Benning likes to give out big contracts and overypay in trades so that people will think we are getting good players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luongo_01 Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Probably 4. Benning will give him 6. #Sbisa #Dorsett #characterguys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintPatrick33 Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 He will get 5 years at 4.75 mill per year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHatnDart Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Considering he's a player being used for transitioning Horvat into the 2C spot, I'd be much more pleased with a 2 year deal that we overpay for. 4.5x2 I'd be very pleased with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canucklehead44 Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Think about it. He takes 100 faceoffs and wins 52 (and loses 48) does that really give him an edge? It's a slightly slightly weighted coin toss. Face-offs are largely overvalued. In specific contexts they are very important but even the best guys can only win max 60% of the time. Sutter last year won 688 face-offs and lost 671 that a difference of 17 face-offs spread over 80 games. He was 1 faceoff over .500 every 5 games. Not really a game changer stat. Here are some source to check out: http://oilersnation.com/2011/8/1/the-overrated-value-of-a-faceoff http://www.hockeywilderness.com/2014/11/6/7155985/faceoffs-nhl-possession-correlation-do-faceoffs-matter http://bloguin.com/puckdrunklove/2015-articles/is-it-really-that-important-to-win-faceoffs-in-the-nhl.html I once did an analysis on the impact of faceoff percentage. A centre who is 65% in the faceoffs will make a difference over someone who is 38%. However, the difference between 52% and 48% is so minor, I think it was only a difference of 2 or 3 goals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duodenum Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Whatever he gets, it'll probably be for projected value instead of actual value. Currently he's a low 30 point, good defensively 3rd line center who has a hope of increasing in production by stepping out from under Crosby and Malkin's shadow (although his output did not increase when Crosby and/or Malkin were oft injured). He'll get paid 2nd line center dollars while producing at a 3rd line center rate because of his name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetliner Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 anything over 4 mil is an overpayment for a guy with 40 points career guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetliner Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Considering he's a player being used for transitioning Horvat into the 2C spot, I'd be much more pleased with a 2 year deal that we overpay for. 4.5x2 I'd be very pleased with. benning is likely gonna sign him long term seeing he is a foundational piece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheHockeyNerds Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 1.9 one year... I hope I'm wrong about this guy. Baffles me why he makes 3.3 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheHockeyNerds Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 1.9 one year... I hope I'm wrong about this guy. Baffles me why he makes 3.3 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheHockeyNerds Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 1.9 one year... I hope I'm wrong about this guy. Baffles me why he makes 3.3 right now. Bonino at 1.9 was a steal. The norm for a good 2/3 centre is 4-5 mil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownUndaCanuck Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Hope he doesn't get anywhere near 5M. 20 goal scorer but well under 40 points last season, 26 years old, I'd give him a 4 years at 4.2M deal tops. Considering the fact that we had Bonino doing the same thing at under 2M for another couple of seasons, this is 2M cap wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baggins Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Couturier is pretty comparable to Sutter, though Sean has slightly better numbers and is younger. Vermette makes 3.75. Stajan makes 3.125 Ribeiro makes 3.5 Hanzal makes 3.1 I'd put Sutter around those guys. 3.25-3.5 seems right for Sutter. He's at the tip of his peak, so it's not going to change much going forward. 3 to 4 years until McCann, Cassels etc... are ready. Anymore would be dumb, like giving Umberger 4.6. Hanzal is the most comparable of those because of age. But Hanzal signed his deal right after the last cba dispute when the cap went down. The cap has risen every year since. Meaning that number could be low by today's cap standard for a player that age. The others are more recent deals but also older players while Sutter is just entering his prime. All factors to consider when comparing contracts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 4 million per 5 year term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chickenman92 Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Realistically, it will be in the $4.25-4.75 range with the term being three to five years. I think that is the area. I think 4.5 million cap hit for four years is what it will take to sign him now. Wait until later in the year/after the season and that number could go up or down depending on how he plays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toyotasfan Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Or , keep him hungry, let him play out his contract and see how he does. Pay him based on what he does for the Canucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apollo Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 Bonino at 1.9 was a steal. The norm for a good 2/3 centre is 4-5 mil Which is why he should have kept Bonino. I wouldn't have been happy with the trade had it been Bonino for sutter and a second... Let alone us giving Clen and swapping 2nd for 3rd. Arg... Someone teach benning basic math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asian player Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 4.25 over 5 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumerman77 Posted July 29, 2015 Share Posted July 29, 2015 I once did an analysis on the impact of faceoff percentage. A centre who is 65% in the faceoffs will make a difference over someone who is 38%. However, the difference between 52% and 48% is so minor, I think it was only a difference of 2 or 3 goals. I'm surprised it would even be 2 or 3 goals (I guess it depends on total number of faceoffs). Anyway, faceoffs are a nice narrative even if they have little impact on outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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