AV's Coin

Investing in the stock market - Discussion

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Anyone want to discuss some of their views on stocks and investing.

I am in the process of maxing out my TFSA in a self directed account. I have dabled in stocks before and made a "little" but I am starting over after a few years hiatus.

I would call myself an amateur - intermediate investor.

I have a few shares in some "steady" dividend stocks:

Toronto Dominion - TD:

I chose this bank for its larger exposure to the US which has one of the better economies currently. Its down a little now but I am getting a decent dividend - close to 4%. I am hoping that if the FED increases their rates this stock will go up. What do you think?

Manulife - MFC:

I made money on this before so picked it up again in the hopes that it will also go up in the event interest rates rise. Insurance companies should bring in more revenue with higher rates when they invest their premiums. Even in down economies people still buy insurance. Its down a little right now. What do you think?

Bell:

I picked this up during the recent volatility in the market when it was down. Its dividend is close to 5%. Its up a little. I will be watching what the stock price does if and when the rates go higher as this stock may be affected negatively as people might sell to get a safer return elsewhere. The other possible issue I see is with "cable cord cutters" or in Bells case "Satellite TV" as people move to streaming media such as Netflix. However with Bell they have their mobile and internet business so I am not sure this is a problem. They also own part of the Maple Leafs so not sure how I feel about that!!!

I also will sell call options on these stocks to get a few extra bucks every other month along with my dividends. It seems to add at least 1% to 2% more annual return. I have only had a stock called away once when the stock went slightly above by call price so I did not miss out on too much return. I bought the stock again when it went down. So far this strategy is working for me but I only use this strategy on stocks that I dont think will rise significantly above the call price and subsequently get called away and I miss out on the gains. If you have any tips on options let me know.

Some other trades I have made:

Apple:

I bought an option on Apple stock (could not afford 100 shares in apple at the time) around the beginning of the year and made a little when Apple was breaking records with IPhone 6 sales. I subsequently bought another option with a strike price of 120 and set to expire in January 2016.

Currently the stock price is off its high of around $130 and sits at around $110 mainly do to the downturn in the Chinese economy; a key growth area for Apple, but also due to the perception that there is no way they can top the revenues they had in 2015.

Needless to say I am down quite a bit at the moment and am not sure the stock will recover quick enough before my option expires.

I am hoping that the latest Apple products, iPhone 6S, Apple TV, iPad Pro etc, introduced at tomorrows conference will push the stock up at which point I might sell and get as much as I can out of it.

I do believe the stock will go back up eventually on the backs of continued iPhone sales - apparently only 30% of iPhone users have upgraded to the iPhone6, the new and improved Apple TV, and increased revenues from greater adoption of Apple services such as Apple Music, Apple Pay, the App Store and down the road subscription TV. Most analysts have a target price around $145 but I am not sure if this will happen before my option expires in January?

Facebook:

Again I bought an option on 100 shares in Facebook. This does not expire for two years so I will leave it for now. I do believe they have fantastic growth potential as more and more advertisers start to use social media and recently it was reported that one billion individual users used Facebook in one day!

I believe they will start to monetize Instagram soon so revenues should increase from that as well. If they continue to sign up more users then the stock should do well. If you have any thoughts on Facebook let me know?

Let me know your thoughts on oil.

I had Crescent Point Gas which had a dividend over 10%. I picked it up in December 2014 while the stock was low. It went back up and then as you know dropped like a stone with the price of oil. I got out early and did not lose much when you factor in the dividends. I would like to purchase an oil stock at some time (not necessarily CPG again) but not sure it has bottomed even though the price of oil had gone up recently.

I believe there is still an oversupply of oil with the new technologies for drilling such as fracking. Iran will be flooding the market again with their oil. Summer driving season is over. Chinese economy tanking. All these factors lead me to believe that the price of oil will stay low unless OPEC cuts their supply. What do you think?

What are your thoughts on these stocks:

Netflix:

It has gone down recently - I believe it may be related to the rumors of an Apple TV subscription service as well as the possibility of Apple creating their own content.

Netflix is a pricey stock although the price is based on a lot of growth potential and that they are currently a leader in subscription TV and have produced some award winning shows.

I would be worried about the increase in competition what with Apple, HBO, Shaw, Amazon etc all coming out with subscription TV and some of them have their own award winning exclusives.

Unless they change their monthly plans or change the way they release shows for example to stop binge watching by releasing episodes more slowly, I can see myself switching subscription plans between companies frequently as shows become available on their platforms. For example I might sign up to Netflix for a month and watch House of Cards or Narcos! then switch to HBO to watch Game of Thrones.

What do you think about Netflix. If it continues to go down would you buy?

Amazon:

Any thoughts? I will leave mine for another day.

Google:

same as above?

Edited by AV's Coin

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It'll be interesting to see if the 7-year cycle is going to continue...

1973, 1980, 1987, 1994, 2001, 2008... 2015?

Edited by CanadianLoonie

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Natural resources is where you want to be. Down cycle on all commodities...best time to buy.

Physical gold and silver is another place you want to be. I'm betting that there's going to be inflationary pressures kicking in shortly and most likely hard precious metals that you can hold in your safety deposit box is going to serve you well.

Alternative energy sector is worth taking a look. UN policies on climate control is something an investor can cash in on...wind is best option IMO. Nominal forecast shows $2.5 trillion in capital investments for wind infrastructure over the next 25 years. And anything to do with water generation (especially atmospheric water generation technologies and de-salination/reverse osmosis technology).

Commercial vertical farming is another interesting emerging sector. Conventional farming will still rule food production for the masses (i.e., Monsanto), but highly productive vertical/organic farms will allow for improved yields and growth cycles in a controlled environment that is pesticide free.

These are the things that I'm paying attention to...I attended a number of investment forums in New York and Europe from 2006 to 2012, and the number of global funds setting themselves up for these sectors during those years was staggering. A lot of the institutional monies raised to date have gone into rapid growth of these sectors...now, it's readied itself for retail investors like us schmoes here on CDC.

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I WOULD NOT, I repeat NOT be value investing at this moment if I was anyone (unless you are shorting).

Sh*t is going to hit the fan any day now.

Wait till the full on crash happens and take advantage of any reputable blue chip that took a heavy hit. This is the best time to make money.

It's ironic when the market is hot everyone is buying, but when a bloodbath begins and safe opportunities arise most people are running away.

Edited by RRypien37
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It'll be interesting to see if the 7-year cycle is going to continue...

1973, 1980, 1987, 1994, 2001, 2008... 2015?

I'm sure you are joking because it is already happening. This market 'crash' has been slower and less dramatic but it has been happening since some time in 2014.

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Wrong thread, this is not about an election.

Baaaaaaaammmmmmmmmm!

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I WOULD NOT, I repeat NOT be value investing at this moment if I was anyone (unless you are shorting).

Sh*t is going to hit the fan any day now.

Wait till the full on crash happens and take advantage of any reputable blue chip that took a heavy hit. This is the best time to make money.

It's ironic when the market is hot everyone is buying, but when a bloodbath begins and safe opportunities arise most people are running away.

The stock market is a good illustration of society in general.

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i wouldn't touch staple commodities like copper, gold, oil with the contraction of Russia, then China, EU debt crisis and now refugees, and US outlook bleak to catostrophic.

edit; from a value standpoint. Physical gold is a hedge more than a speculation.

i'd definitely own at least a small parcel of land with a dwelling(even a camper works), and some physical gold/silver in small denominations, a couple grand in USD/EURO/CAD/AUD/CHF/HKD each, and of course a source of or stored water and some stored food basics. Between super-earthquake and fiat currencies gone wild, if you have the means to build a shallow safety-net, I would.

Edited by Edlerberry

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The stock market is a good illustration of society in general.

Well of course.

Stocks don't usually move based on economic principles but rather human psychology and manipulation.

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I'm sure you are joking because it is already happening. This market 'crash' has been slower and less dramatic but it has been happening since some time in 2014.

The dot.com bubble popped in 2000 but the major move down took place the next year after 9/11.

Likewise in 2007 the markets topped at the start of the 'credit crunch'but the big drop didn't happen till September '08.

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The dot.com bubble popped in 2000 but the major move down took place the next year after 9/11.

Likewise in 2007 the markets topped at the start of the 'credit crunch'but the big drop didn't happen till September '08.

Good points. I wonder if the market 'needs' a real big news to 'crash' for real. And what would that bad news be?

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I think using data from the 30's to now..... equities market have risen about 10% annually on average. A well-diversed portfolio is key (low beta correlation, etc).

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Good points. I wonder if the market 'needs' a real big news to 'crash' for real. And what would that bad news be?

A full blown recession in China.

While that's highly unlikely, their grown projections are BS.

Iron ore imports in China fell -16% and somehow they're still projecting growth at 7.3%.

It just doesn't work like that.

Edited by nuckin_futz

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Don't you get someone else to generally handle this sort of thing? Someone who knows what they're doing. Think my uncle does that. And lets just say he's not driving in a Corolla and eating kraft dinner every night.

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Don't you get someone else to generally handle this sort of thing? Someone who knows what they're doing. Think my uncle does that. And lets just say he's not driving in a Corolla and eating kraft dinner every night.

That's an excellent way to make your dad money but not so much for yourself.

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just picking up stocks on panic sell offs and holding for long term

Owned- CN Rail, under armour, CIBC, enbridge, bell, transcanda, sunlife, Boyd autobody, Cineplex, tourmaline oil, Suncor, General Electric, Tmx group, laurentian bank

Etfs: ZLB, COW, ZGI, XLP, ZLU

Mutual funds: Mawer balanced fund, Td U.S. Quantative

Watch list-Berkshire Hathaway, Google, George weston, TD, Royal bank, fortis, Mawer international balanced fund

Edited by bolt

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A full blown recession in China.

While that's highly unlikely, their grown projections are BS.

Iron ore imports in China fell -16% and somehow they're still projecting growth at 7.3%.

It just doesn't work like that.

A recession is economic contraction. While China is growing slower than 7.3% for sure, I don't see it contracting any time soon.

But if it does contract, then yeah that would be very bad news.

The bad news can be geopolitical as well, like Europe finally giving up on Greece.

Don't you get someone else to generally handle this sort of thing? Someone who knows what they're doing. Think my uncle does that. And lets just say he's not driving in a Corolla and eating kraft dinner every night.

Most financial advisors are really just stocks and mutual funds sales people and have had very little practical education in economics and finance. You are better off coming to this thread.

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Maxing out your TFSA is the best thing you could do.

Next best thing is pumping anything extra into RRSP.

People that know what they're doing avoid single stocks altogether and simply go SUPER boring. That is to say, find mutual funds that have at least a 10-year history of making good gains, put the money into those and LEAVE it alone.

If those mutual funds can make you say 7-8% while compounding every year it blows away guys that try to time markets, jump in and out, etc...

I don't know your age, but the number one asset that many people on these boards have is their age.

If you put $1000 into a mutual fund at age 20 and add $200 monthly (expecting 8% return over it's life), you retire with over $1,000,000.

Compound interest!

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