nuckin_futz Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 (edited) Bank of Canada cuts rates to 0.25%, launches QE program Fri 27 Mar 2020 13:02:07 GMT BOC cuts to 0.25% from 0.75% At 0.75% before today the Bank of Canada was the highest among developed central banks. US T-bills were negative but Canadian equivalents still had a 'decent' yield at around 0.5% out to six months. That may have been a factor in the loonie's strength this week but the currency is lower on this (although still much higher than it was at the start of the week). USD/CAD is trading at 1.4140 from a low of 1.3390 earlier today. Meanwhile, oil continues to crater and is down 3.3% today. With global growth in big trouble, Canadian exports are going to be hard hit and the country is likely to fall into a tough recession. What I worry about right now is the Canadian mortgage market and Canadian banks. Canada's largest bank -- RBC -- was sued yesterday for putting a margin call on a REIT's CMBS and plans to auction them off. Other banks haven't taken those kinds of actions but RBC balked and you have to wonder if that's just being predatory or if they are facing their own problems. The BOC yesterday also launched a plan to buy corporate bonds. BOC launches QE and a commercial paper program The Bank of Canada also crossed the threshold into quantitative easing today for the first time. They will buy 'a minimum' of $5B per week across the curve and will continue "until the economic recovery is well underway." They will also buying commercial paper in a separate program. *********** That is the wimpiest QE program out there. Almost in the why bother category. Edited March 27, 2020 by nuckin_futz 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shift-4 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 25 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: Bank of Canada cuts rates to 0.25%, launches QE program Fri 27 Mar 2020 13:02:07 GMT BOC cuts to 0.25% from 0.75% *********** That is the wimpiest QE program out there. Almost in the why bother category. I wonder if the banks will keep pace. They never did correct the 20 pt difference from last downturn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shift-4 Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 30 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: That is the wimpiest QE program out there. Almost in the why bother category. Oh c'mon the tsx was green for at least 4 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoreanHockeyFan Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 S&P and Dow all down 3%+ to start the morning. Like I said folks, we're not out of this yet. If you're going to try and time the market, wait it out. Otherwise, if you can't take all of this volatility, just start dollar cost averaging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Russ Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 1 hour ago, nuckin_futz said: Bank of Canada cuts rates to 0.25%, launches QE program Fri 27 Mar 2020 13:02:07 GMT BOC cuts to 0.25% from 0.75% At 0.75% before today the Bank of Canada was the highest among developed central banks. US T-bills were negative but Canadian equivalents still had a 'decent' yield at around 0.5% out to six months. That may have been a factor in the loonie's strength this week but the currency is lower on this (although still much higher than it was at the start of the week). USD/CAD is trading at 1.4140 from a low of 1.3390 earlier today. Meanwhile, oil continues to crater and is down 3.3% today. With global growth in big trouble, Canadian exports are going to be hard hit and the country is likely to fall into a tough recession. What I worry about right now is the Canadian mortgage market and Canadian banks. Canada's largest bank -- RBC -- was sued yesterday for putting a margin call on a REIT's CMBS and plans to auction them off. Other banks haven't taken those kinds of actions but RBC balked and you have to wonder if that's just being predatory or if they are facing their own problems. The BOC yesterday also launched a plan to buy corporate bonds. BOC launches QE and a commercial paper program The Bank of Canada also crossed the threshold into quantitative easing today for the first time. They will buy 'a minimum' of $5B per week across the curve and will continue "until the economic recovery is well underway." They will also buying commercial paper in a separate program. *********** That is the wimpiest QE program out there. Almost in the why bother category. Well lets see if mortgages go cheaper since after the last cut banks didn't drop the prices. https://biv.com/article/2020/03/interest-rates-new-mortgages-increasing-despite-bank-canada-rate-drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I.Am.Ironman Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 48 minutes ago, KoreanHockeyFan said: S&P and Dow all down 3%+ to start the morning. Like I said folks, we're not out of this yet. If you're going to try and time the market, wait it out. Otherwise, if you can't take all of this volatility, just start dollar cost averaging. I think I am using today to start that.. Going into something conservative (VGRO) with 20% of my funds. Will buy as it trickels down (hopefully). I will hold off on some other ETFs I have an eye on like ZCN, ZDJ, and XQQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronaldoescobar Posted March 27, 2020 Share Posted March 27, 2020 52 minutes ago, Russ said: Well lets see if mortgages go cheaper since after the last cut banks didn't drop the prices. https://biv.com/article/2020/03/interest-rates-new-mortgages-increasing-despite-bank-canada-rate-drop Hard to say. I think they may drop a tiny bit but definitely not matching what the BOC is doing. Banks arent dropping their rates as fast, as they are worried about their loan loss provisions skyrocketing due to the mass layoffs and job losses expected, and profits dropping. Have to keep shareholders happy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 a lot of talk now about this being an additional 4+ weeks. This while the US is now completely overwhelmed by this virus and is the world leader for new cases Anyone think that massive pile of cash thrown at this issue and a measly $1200 one time payment will help at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Warhippy said: a lot of talk now about this being an additional 4+ weeks. This while the US is now completely overwhelmed by this virus and is the world leader for new cases Anyone think that massive pile of cash thrown at this issue and a measly $1200 one time payment will help at all? it will help Amazon and Walmart, thats where most of the $1,200 will go. After than its every man for himself in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 minute ago, Jimmy McGill said: it will help Amazon and Walmart, thats where most of the $1,200 will go. After than its every man for himself in the US. Experts saying it could feasibly take months to roll out those cheques and they're literally one time only. Meanwhile large business and corporations have been getting hundreds of billions for weeks without blinking. It's insane to think that consumer confidence will even exist by the end of the month in the US or Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aGENT Posted March 28, 2020 Share Posted March 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Jimmy McGill said: it will help Amazon and Walmart, thats where most of the $1,200 will go. After than its every man for himself in the US. Good thing they have all those guns... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 It's bouncing back but we expected that today. Here's 7 pitfalls to this ongoing crisis and why it is worse than 2008 https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/7-potential-lingering-effects-of-covid-19-on-the-economy-don-pittis-1.5512872 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NucksPatsFan Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 What's this about AC possibly buying Air Transat's parent company? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I.Am.Ironman Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 It will be interesting to see the market's reaction tomorrow to the further postponement of self isolationism until April 30th. That is another 3 weeks of very little/nil revenue from major corporations. At this rate it is likely to be postponed further as well. I may consider companies like WYNN and other resorts in the summer when this all (hopefully) blows over. WYNN was down ~70% but is now down 50% from January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, I.Am.Ironman said: It will be interesting to see the market's reaction tomorrow to the further postponement of self isolationism until April 30th. That is another 3 weeks of very little/nil revenue from major corporations. At this rate it is likely to be postponed further as well. I may consider companies like WYNN and other resorts in the summer when this all (hopefully) blows over. WYNN was down ~70% but is now down 50% from January. Consumer confidence will be flat, like utterly absolutely flat. I'm unsure how much of an impact that still has on things but I'd go so far as to say it will weigh down a lot of companies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted March 30, 2020 Share Posted March 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, Warhippy said: Consumer confidence will be flat, like utterly absolutely flat. I'm unsure how much of an impact that still has on things but I'd go so far as to say it will weigh down a lot of companies Australian weekly consumer confidence craters even further - lowest ever Mon 30 Mar 2020 22:38:52 GMT The previous week was 72.2, this week it fell even more, to 65.3 One of the sub measures, 'Current economic conditions' has fallen by near 50% in 2 weeks, to the lowest ever level. The Australian government yesterday announced a wage subsidy plan, a generous one, but with consumer confidence collapsing like this you have to wonder that apart from spending on necessitates how much of any income is going to be saved rather than spent. **************** US Consumer Confidence is reported tomorrow. Unlike the Aussie number it is a monthly reading and will not fully reflect the shutdowns. Previous reading was 131. Expectation is 115. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warhippy Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 23 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: Australian weekly consumer confidence craters even further - lowest ever Mon 30 Mar 2020 22:38:52 GMT The previous week was 72.2, this week it fell even more, to 65.3 One of the sub measures, 'Current economic conditions' has fallen by near 50% in 2 weeks, to the lowest ever level. The Australian government yesterday announced a wage subsidy plan, a generous one, but with consumer confidence collapsing like this you have to wonder that apart from spending on necessitates how much of any income is going to be saved rather than spent. **************** US Consumer Confidence is reported tomorrow. Unlike the Aussie number it is a monthly reading and will not fully reflect the shutdowns. Previous reading was 131. Expectation is 115. I think 115 is a bit rosy and 110 or lower is more likely. What do you think a sub 115 does to the US markets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CBH1926 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 Buying pharmaceutical and medical equipment stocks has been good for my portfolio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuckin_futz Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Warhippy said: I think 115 is a bit rosy and 110 or lower is more likely. What do you think a sub 115 does to the US markets? What would it do to markets tomorrow? Probably nothing, tomorrow is month end, quarter end. That's what will dominate the money flows. In the bigger picture I think this reading could very well put up numbers last seen at the depths of the Great Recession. Those readings were in the high 20's. Hard to be confident when that many people get laid off and wind up on the government dole. Here's another gong show number that just came out......... NZ Business Confidence (March) : -63.5 (prior -19.4) Tue 31 Mar 2020 00:00:23 GMT New Zealand - ANZ business survey for March Business Confidence: absolutely smashed, down to -63.5 vs. prior -19.4 Activity Outlook:-26.7 vs. prior 12.0 ANZ comments: It's grim. Confidence and activity measures plummeted Responses in the second half of the month strongly suggest next month will be even worse We are on a very steep slide indeed ************ Mind you business confidence in NZ was quite poor before Covid-19. But -63.5 is the worst reading I have ever seen. Edited March 31, 2020 by nuckin_futz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HI5 Posted March 31, 2020 Share Posted March 31, 2020 I don’t know what’s happening with the markets, but I was lucky enough to snag a quick $1000 today. I don’t think I’d make a great day trader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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