Investing in the stock market - Discussion

[AriGold2.0]

What a great video this is, one of the better ones I've seen in a while.

 

Raoul Pal was interviewed and if you don't know him, he was the former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager.

 

 

[I.Am.Ironman]

2 hours ago, AriGold2.0 said:

What a great video this is, one of the better ones I've seen in a while.

 

Raoul Pal was interviewed and if you don't know him, he was the former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager.

 

 

A very good point about how all of the politicians (and wall street) are baby boomers, and how they will stop at no end to protect their pensions, understandably. It is very possible that the market trades down then side ways for the foreseeable future. The big takeaway for me is that we need younger people in positions of power.

 

As for Bitcoin.. I think the powers that be will do everything in their (plentiful) power to stop crypto from taking over. Is it the future? Maybe. But the gov will come out with their own crypto if it gets to that imo.

Edited April 27, 2020 by I.Am.Ironman

[AriGold2.0]

On 4/23/2020 at 8:53 PM, AriGold2.0 said:

Free tip to all you cool cats and kittens..

 

INSE could pop tomorrow.

 

Just approved to do the official virtual Kentucky Derby... Would be an in and out strategy for me...

Wish I bought more then 500 shares

 

[Boudrias]

10 hours ago, AriGold2.0 said:

What a great video this is, one of the better ones I've seen in a while.

 

Raoul Pal was interviewed and if you don't know him, he was the former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager.

 

 

Liked the video, thanks. Been a dividend investor for many years. Overweight gold. Still hold USA tech for the growth but obviously at risk. 

[Boudrias]

8 hours ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

A very good point about how all of the politicians (and wall street) are baby boomers, and how they will stop at no end to protect their pensions, understandably. It is very possible that the market trades down then side ways for the foreseeable future. The big takeaway for me is that we need younger people in positions of power.

 

As for Bitcoin.. I think the powers that be will do everything in their (plentiful) power to stop crypto from taking over. Is it the future? Maybe. But the gov will come out with their own crypto if it gets to that imo.

Boomers are doing what they were told. Establishing a stream of revenue independent of a wage was needed as pensions were not part of their life. I don't believe that boomers are the sole reason for stock overvaluation. Government overspending and QE have driven income seekers out of bonds and into higher risk assets like stocks. It has impacted the way pensions invest as they have done the same thing and increased risk to get the yields they need to fund payouts. This goes beyond pensions as the CPP invests in markets as well. So the need for income goes beyond boomers. I highly doubt who is in power, boomers or milennials, will impact the fundamental economics. 

What I find disturbing are people on a company pension or government pension who think they are isolated from equity markets. Most decidedly not true. 

[KoreanHockeyFan]

12 hours ago, AriGold2.0 said:

What a great video this is, one of the better ones I've seen in a while.

 

Raoul Pal was interviewed and if you don't know him, he was the former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager.

 

 

I've been wondering about the magnitude of the incoming crash. 

 

Some keep saying that we're going to recover fine, others saying that we're going to enter a decade-long bear market and end up like the Japanese market. I'm trying to tune out the noise, but I have been seriously considering whether I should hedge a bit with gold and/or crypto. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried at all about the balloning corporate debt and how it may even result in the doom of fiat currency. 

 

Can the U.S. really take on more debt? Can the Fed guide us through another recession with already near-zero interest rates? 

 

As a millennial, it's got me thinking really hard about how the economy and the financial ecosystem may or may not completely change in the coming decades. Is debt just going to be something that's a part of life and always hanging around? Or is there a breaking point where we finally need to face our debt and take the medicine?

 

Puzzling times for sure...

[Tortorella's Rant]

11 minutes ago, KoreanHockeyFan said:

I've been wondering about the magnitude of the incoming crash. 

 

Some keep saying that we're going to recover fine, others saying that we're going to enter a decade-long bear market and end up like the Japanese market. I'm trying to tune out the noise, but I have been seriously considering whether I should hedge a bit with gold and/or crypto. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't worried at all about the balloning corporate debt and how it may even result in the doom of fiat currency. 

 

Can the U.S. really take on more debt? Can the Fed guide us through another recession with already near-zero interest rates? 

 

As a millennial, it's got me thinking really hard about how the economy and the financial ecosystem may or may not completely change in the coming decades. Is debt just going to be something that's a part of life and always hanging around? Or is there a breaking point where we finally need to face our debt and take the medicine?

 

Puzzling times for sure...

BTC ebs and flows with the Dow. What sort of protection are you getting there? I've never understood gold either. Because it has intrinsic value? So does copper and it has many more practical uses. As does water. So buy water. And seeds. Because if the world economy implodes, nobody is going to care about how much gold one has when people are starving to death. 

[Boudrias]

1 hour ago, Tortorella's Rant said:

BTC ebs and flows with the Dow. What sort of protection are you getting there? I've never understood gold either. Because it has intrinsic value? So does copper and it has many more practical uses. As does water. So buy water. And seeds. Because if the world economy implodes, nobody is going to care about how much gold one has when people are starving to death. 

David Rosenberg predicted a $0.60 cent a few days ago and is now saying it could flirt with $0.50. On Dec. 31st it was 0.77 cents. Important because Canada is a net importer, especially since energy has tanked. About 33% of Canada's federal debt is funded by foreigners. I don't know how much provincial debt is foreign. All very important because that debt and interest is usually serviced in USD. Highly likely Canada's credit rating will be lowered. One has to ponder if foreign lenders will continue to lend and what the cost will be. Canadian government is spending massive amounts of money to citizens and industry trying to keep everyone whole in anticipation of restarting the economy. One can also wonder how quickly that will happen. 

 

Why gold? Historically it is because it is a scarce metal which retains value. Bitcoin usurps that role but when push comes to shove I suspect gold will dominate once again. If the supply chain breaks down then the basics of life will definitely have value. Gold and jewelry saved a lot of people in WW II.  No doubt that an acreage with chickens and a cow might be invaluable. 

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Boudrias said:

Liked the video, thanks. Been a dividend investor for many years. Overweight gold. Still hold USA tech for the growth but obviously at risk. 

Where would one go to look at the historical dividend payouts from different companies/sectors, etc?  

 

[Boudrias]

3 minutes ago, VancouverHabitant said:

Where would one go to look at the historical dividend payouts from different companies/sectors, etc?  

 

I would start with Google. A lot of companies have payout records on their website. I subscribe to the G&M investor section which has a lot of info. Yahoo Finance is free I think. 

[Boudrias]

Slight strengthening in the CDN$ this morning. Buy a little USD$. I want at least 25% in USD$. I see Gord Reid of Goodreid Investments is now over 60% USD$. 

[CBH1926]

20 hours ago, VancouverHabitant said:

Where would one go to look at the historical dividend payouts from different companies/sectors, etc?  

 

I use this amongst other things.

 

https://www.macrotrends.net

[Lancaster]

On 4/27/2020 at 7:46 AM, Boudrias said:

Boomers are doing what they were told. Establishing a stream of revenue independent of a wage was needed as pensions were not part of their life. I don't believe that boomers are the sole reason for stock overvaluation. Government overspending and QE have driven income seekers out of bonds and into higher risk assets like stocks. It has impacted the way pensions invest as they have done the same thing and increased risk to get the yields they need to fund payouts. This goes beyond pensions as the CPP invests in markets as well. So the need for income goes beyond boomers. I highly doubt who is in power, boomers or milennials, will impact the fundamental economics. 

What I find disturbing are people on a company pension or government pension who think they are isolated from equity markets. Most decidedly not true. 

The way I try to explain the movement of money would be like a balloon filled with water.  When you squeeze on one part of it, the water just moves into a different part, expanding there.  

 

Low-interest environment means funds will go into riskier assets and those that offers more protection against inflation.  There's a reason why real estate prices are high... a lot has to due with foreign investors... but it's mostly due to local people buying multiple homes as investments.  For all intent and purposes, real estate behaves like a long-term bond or income equity.  You get monthly "interest" in the form of rent, plus you have the potential for capital appreciation.

 

That being said.... I have no idea how the balloon will pop.  

[NucksPatsFan]

Nice green day today

[Boudrias]

31 minutes ago, Lancaster said:

The way I try to explain the movement of money would be like a balloon filled with water.  When you squeeze on one part of it, the water just moves into a different part, expanding there.  

 

Low-interest environment means funds will go into riskier assets and those that offers more protection against inflation.  There's a reason why real estate prices are high... a lot has to due with foreign investors... but it's mostly due to local people buying multiple homes as investments.  For all intent and purposes, real estate behaves like a long-term bond or income equity.  You get monthly "interest" in the form of rent, plus you have the potential for capital appreciation.

 

That being said.... I have no idea how the balloon will pop.  

My biggest concern is global debt and Canadian debt in particular. This debt should be massively inflationary. Before that hits deflation should happen. Demographic is working against us and the consumer has no money. Where will the demand come from? 

[nuckin_futz]

34 minutes ago, Lancaster said:

The way I try to explain the movement of money would be like a balloon filled with water.  When you squeeze on one part of it, the water just moves into a different part, expanding there.  

 

Low-interest environment means funds will go into riskier assets and those that offers more protection against inflation.  There's a reason why real estate prices are high... a lot has to due with foreign investors... but it's mostly due to local people buying multiple homes as investments.  For all intent and purposes, real estate behaves like a long-term bond or income equity.  You get monthly "interest" in the form of rent, plus you have the potential for capital appreciation.

 

That being said.... I have no idea how the balloon will pop.  

Inflation and interest rates.

[Lancaster]

17 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

My biggest concern is global debt and Canadian debt in particular. This debt should be massively inflationary. Before that hits deflation should happen. Demographic is working against us and the consumer has no money. Where will the demand come from? 

Theoretically, inflation would be good for debt repayment.  

If your $200,000 mortgage suddenly worth the equivalent of $100,000 pre-massive inflation... you're just saved 50%

 

That being said, it's the middle class that suffers the most from massive inflation.  The rich owns "the mean of production", thus their inflation is hedged.  The poor has no money, thus inflation impacts them relatively minimally.  For the middle class with money saved up.... they get screwed.  

[nuckin_futz]

10 minutes ago, Lancaster said:

Theoretically, inflation would be good for debt repayment.  

If your $200,000 mortgage suddenly worth the equivalent of $100,000 pre-massive inflation... you're just saved 50%

 

That being said, it's the middle class that suffers the most from massive inflation.  The rich owns "the mean of production", thus their inflation is hedged.  The poor has no money, thus inflation impacts them relatively minimally.  For the middle class with money saved up.... they get screwed.  

How do Central Banks deal with inflation?

 

They raise interest rates.

[Bure_Pavel]

12 minutes ago, Lancaster said:

Theoretically, inflation would be good for debt repayment.  

If your $200,000 mortgage suddenly worth the equivalent of $100,000 pre-massive inflation... you're just saved 50%

 

That being said, it's the middle class that suffers the most from massive inflation.  The rich owns "the mean of production", thus their inflation is hedged.  The poor has no money, thus inflation impacts them relatively minimally.  For the middle class with money saved up.... they get screwed.  

If your money is invested in stocks or property, it is some what protected from inflation as they will rise with inflation. Keeping your assets in cash over the next few years is not smart. The poor definitely suffer from inflation as well, as it probably means they can afford basic amenities. 

[Lancaster]

1 minute ago, nuckin_futz said:

How do Central Banks deal with inflation?

 

They raise interest rates.

Yep.... but with the amount of money borrowed, it's going to be painful.

 

Probably going to be some form of "Stagfation" might occur first.