Investing in the stock market - Discussion

[Boudrias]

10 minutes ago, Lancaster said:

Theoretically, inflation would be good for debt repayment.  

If your $200,000 mortgage suddenly worth the equivalent of $100,000 pre-massive inflation... you're just saved 50%

 

That being said, it's the middle class that suffers the most from massive inflation.  The rich owns "the mean of production", thus their inflation is hedged.  The poor has no money, thus inflation impacts them relatively minimally.  For the middle class with money saved up.... they get screwed.  

Cannot see that. Inflation always hurts the poor the worst. Food, clothing and shelter all increase in cost and they have little to no cushion. Debt has to be fixed mortgages. Used to be that inflation would generate wage increases but I'm not confident that will be the case this time around. It could easily accelerate automation.   

[nuckin_futz]

15 minutes ago, Lancaster said:

Yep.... but with the amount of money borrowed, it's going to be painful.

 

Probably going to be some form of "Stagfation" might occur first.  

I believe it'll be the bubble pop event. 

 

Central Banks (especially the BOJ) are probably more concerned about deflation. The way inflation is calculated always needs to be factored in too. Which reminds me of one of my favorite quotes from a few years back. The NY Fed president William Dudley was trying to explain inflation calculations to a gathering in Queens, and let's just say it didn't go well. ......

 

******

 

Best not to cite the price of the new iPad as an example of why inflation isn’t a problem when you head into a working-class neighborhood.

 

In Queens, New York, on Friday, New York Fed President William Dudley did just that. He got an earful.

 

After being bombarded with questions about food inflation, Dudley attempted to reassure his audience by putting rising commodity prices into a broader economic context — but that only made matters worse.

 

“When was the last time, sir, that you went grocery shopping?” one audience member asked.

 

Dudley tried to explain how the Fed sees things: Yes, food and energy prices may be rising, but at the same time, other prices are declining.

 

He then stretched for a real world example. The only problem was he chose the Apple’s latest tablet computer that hit stores on Friday, which may be more popular at the New York Fed’s headquarters near Wall Street than it is on the gritty streets of Queens.

 

“Today you can buy an iPad 2 that costs the same as an iPad 1 that is twice as powerful,” he said.”You have to look at the prices of all things.”

 

This prompted guffaws and widespread murmuring from the audience, with one audience member calling the comment “tone deaf.”

 

“I can’t eat an iPad,” another said.

 

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by nuckin_futz

[nuckin_futz]

Tough times all around. Little embarrassed at how much I laughed at this.........

 

Bank of Nook cuts rates, gamers recoil

Tue 28 Apr 2020 14:44:28 GMT

 

You can't even get virtual interest anymore

The Financial Times has an article about an interest rate cut in the video game Animal Crossing and it's a masterpiece.

 

The abrupt policy shift, imposed by an obligatory software update on April 23, provoked a stream of online fury that a once-solid stream of income had been reduced to a trickle with the stroke of a raccoon banker's pen. "I'm never going to financially recover from this," one player wrote on a Reddit forum. "Island recession incoming," said another.

************

 

"With the stroke of a racoon banker's pen"

 

Sounds more qualified than Haruhiko Kuroda.

[Warhippy]

Keeping my eye on resource stocks right now, small ones in canada.  The need for REMs or rare earth metals is about to explode with the advent of 5g and Canada has some of the largest potential untapped areas outside of Chinese control in the world.  Should some of the deposits like Case or Tanco's find in Manitoba pan out, there will be an absolute flood of US money in to mining towards the bay in Manitoba and Ontario.

 

PWM is a looker for sure

[AriGold2.0]

On 4/21/2020 at 8:35 AM, Warhippy said:

Has anyone looked in to tanker stocks?  Companies trading based on transport or holding of oil?

 

With the Saudis trying to flood the NA markets and zero storage capacity you'd have to think stocks in tanker companies would be worth a look

Staring me in the face and I missed the buy...

 

April 21st, NAT was $5.08 a share, currently $7.34

 

Bummer 

 

This was off the coast of California today.

 

Edited April 29, 2020 by AriGold2.0

[Warhippy]

18 minutes ago, AriGold2.0 said:

Staring me in the face and I missed the buy...

 

April 21st, NAT was $5.08 a share, currently $7.34

 

Bummer 

 

This was off the coast of California today.

 

dammit...knew it would be a good purchase.  Hard to argue with almost 50% 

[Boudrias]

Up $2/SH on my RDS buy. WTI took a big hit the other day and RDS actually went up. Although I like RDS investment in alternative energy this is a trade not a LTH. I prefer to hold BEP.U for that purpose. 

 

The feds and provinces will add +$250 billion to their debt in this C-19 battle. I don't disagree with the need but would have liked stricter oversight on who got the money and on what terms. That said I can understand the need for speed. Yes I dwell on debt. We will come out of this with both the feds and the provinces at + $1 trillion or $2 trillion in total. These totals don't include corporate or consumer debt. Prior to C-19 the Canadian growth rate was what +1%. Half the population was in financial trouble. Tell me where the growth will come from to finance this debt? IMHO the cost of carrying this debt will escalate. How does Canada fund its trade deficit? Many scary questions that do not get asked by our government owned media.

 

Currently 24.5% of my portfolio is in USD$. My target was 25%. I am revising that up to 40%. Anytime the CDN$ drops below 1.40 I buy USD$. Stocks on my Canadian side have to have the majority of their business outside of Canada or they are not LTH's.  Ideally they pay their dividends in USD$. Still like the Brookfield companies as they pay divs in USD$ and are global.  Liquidity is a big issue and the TSX often doesn't have it. NYSX does.  

[HI5]

Another big green day hmmm --Cenovus going up today after that Q1 report

[Duodenum]

2 minutes ago, HI5 said:

Another big green day hmmm --Cenovus going up today after that Q1 report

Lot of stocks are pushing resistance levels so I'm curious about Thursday and Friday. If they can break through, I'll be buying up some shares. If they don't, I'd expect a negative week next week. 

[NucksPatsFan]

My energy stocks (suncor and Canadian natural resources) are up big today. 

 

Did I miss something?

[Boudrias]

10 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said:

My energy stocks (suncor and Canadian natural resources) are up big today. 

 

Did I miss something?

NA going back to work. More stimulus and a possible rate cut. 

[I.Am.Ironman]

2 hours ago, Boudrias said:

Up $2/SH on my RDS buy. WTI took a big hit the other day and RDS actually went up. Although I like RDS investment in alternative energy this is a trade not a LTH. I prefer to hold BEP.U for that purpose. 

 

The feds and provinces will add +$250 billion to their debt in this C-19 battle. I don't disagree with the need but would have liked stricter oversight on who got the money and on what terms. That said I can understand the need for speed. Yes I dwell on debt. We will come out of this with both the feds and the provinces at + $1 trillion or $2 trillion in total. These totals don't include corporate or consumer debt. Prior to C-19 the Canadian growth rate was what +1%. Half the population was in financial trouble. Tell me where the growth will come from to finance this debt? IMHO the cost of carrying this debt will escalate. How does Canada fund its trade deficit? Many scary questions that do not get asked by our government owned media.

 

Currently 24.5% of my portfolio is in USD$. My target was 25%. I am revising that up to 40%. Anytime the CDN$ drops below 1.40 I buy USD$. Stocks on my Canadian side have to have the majority of their business outside of Canada or they are not LTH's.  Ideally they pay their dividends in USD$. Still like the Brookfield companies as they pay divs in USD$ and are global.  Liquidity is a big issue and the TSX often doesn't have it. NYSX does.  

Yeah I bought some RDS on monday.. looking good so far. I am still 75% cash right now so am experiencing some significant FOMO with days like today.

 

I think the vanguard global market ETFs (VBAL, VGRO etc) have about a 40% US market exposure, 20% canadian I think, the rest is europe, asia etc.

[Warhippy]

39 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said:

My energy stocks (suncor and Canadian natural resources) are up big today. 

 

Did I miss something?

You did not.

 

Husky, Cenovus, Suncor all posted massive losses, Enbridge etc almost every major Canadian producer has posted losses out the butt this quarter but stocks are up.  The numbers still show more production than usage and global storage capacity is effectively full.  Fleets of tankers and decommissioned pipelines are all now being used as storage.  The US just dropped to a -4.8% in their GDP via annualized first quarter basis.  The US has over 30 million people that have applied for unemployment and Canada just around 2+ million over the last 6 weeks

 

Everything though is up today.  There is a clear and present disconnect from the stock market and the reality of the economic situation and while everything is up today it is almost entirely predicated on the potential for further action by the governments in Canada and the US.  

 

The difference is the Canadian government is flooding money towards people and small business, the US is flooding money towards the markets and businesses.

[CBH1926]

Taking some profits today, up 10% YTD which is not too bad considering all that has happened.

[Boudrias]

I think that RDS will be a double, just a question how long? 

 

I run a draft portfolio for my 2 boys to try and interest them in markets. That draft portfolio has one holding VBAL. It outperformed my other portfolios very signficantly in the sell off. Only down 2% YTD. I have read some crticism of Vanguard on their performance with VBAL, VGROW and VCON. If I remember correctly it was about their chasing performance to much. Vanguard rep is pretty solid and their Mers are very cheap. 

 

I hear you on the FOMO. I expect a market pullback come May so I am not worried about opportunity. On the 30th I will redo my analysis and identify my changes. These ETF's are an opportunity for value guys. Many of the ETF's buy strictly on allocation and not fundamentals. That volitility should provide opportunity. I do allocate but the value has to be there first.  

[Warhippy]

1 minute ago, Boudrias said:

I think that RDS will be a double, just a question how long? 

 

I run a draft portfolio for my 2 boys to try and interest them in markets. That draft portfolio has one holding VBAL. It outperformed my other portfolios very signficantly in the sell off. Only down 2% YTD. I have read some crticism of Vanguard on their performance with VBAL, VGROW and VCON. If I remember correctly it was about their chasing performance to much. Vanguard rep is pretty solid and their Mers are very cheap. 

 

I hear you on the FOMO. I expect a market pullback come May so I am not worried about opportunity. On the 30th I will redo my analysis and identify my changes. These ETF's are an opportunity for value guys. Many of the ETF's buy strictly on allocation and not fundamentals. That volitility should provide opportunity. I do allocate but the value has to be there first.  

Have you read the current quarterly from canadian and US energy?  Or the US fed report today?

 

It's ugly all over yet somehow everything is still climbing.  Base that off of what you will be inevitably reality will win out

 

I am trying to make some bank off of smaller unknowns, pegmatite/cesium outfits, areas creating 5g infrastructure etc.  I missed the boat on tanker traffic as that appears to be played out.  But in times like these it will be the unseen supply driving profits over the face of the company

 

[Boudrias]

1 minute ago, Warhippy said:

Have you read the current quarterly from canadian and US energy?  Or the US fed report today?

 

It's ugly all over yet somehow everything is still climbing.  Base that off of what you will be inevitably reality will win out

 

I am trying to make some bank off of smaller unknowns, pegmatite/cesium outfits, areas creating 5g infrastructure etc.  I missed the boat on tanker traffic as that appears to be played out.  But in times like these it will be the unseen supply driving profits over the face of the company

 

There are so many forces at work in the markets I am often at a loss as to what info to believe. That said I have set 'sell' prices on most of my stocks and will be pretty cut throat on pushing the button if needed. As I said I do believe there will be another market drop in May as EPS down grades will likely set off another wave of fear. At the end of the day I still believe the world will slowly rebuild because they have to. 

 

I used to do the 'core and explore' but now worry about getting a return. CF from the portfolio! Pay me or I'm not interested. When solid blue chips are paying divs of 5 - 8% I have to look hard. For 5G have a look at KEYS. I made a nice return but sold it. Now seeing more positive reports. 

[NucksPatsFan]

23 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

You did not.

 

Husky, Cenovus, Suncor all posted massive losses, Enbridge etc almost every major Canadian producer has posted losses out the butt this quarter but stocks are up.  The numbers still show more production than usage and global storage capacity is effectively full.  Fleets of tankers and decommissioned pipelines are all now being used as storage.  The US just dropped to a -4.8% in their GDP via annualized first quarter basis.  The US has over 30 million people that have applied for unemployment and Canada just around 2+ million over the last 6 weeks

 

Everything though is up today.  There is a clear and present disconnect from the stock market and the reality of the economic situation and while everything is up today it is almost entirely predicated on the potential for further action by the governments in Canada and the US.  

 

The difference is the Canadian government is flooding money towards people and small business, the US is flooding money towards the markets and businesses.

Would you recommend a sell? Or do you think the market will continue to grow despite the hard data showing losses?

[Warhippy]

5 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

There are so many forces at work in the markets I am often at a loss as to what info to believe. That said I have set 'sell' prices on most of my stocks and will be pretty cut throat on pushing the button if needed. As I said I do believe there will be another market drop in May as EPS down grades will likely set off another wave of fear. At the end of the day I still believe the world will slowly rebuild because they have to. 

 

I used to do the 'core and explore' but now worry about getting a return. CF from the portfolio! Pay me or I'm not interested. When solid blue chips are paying divs of 5 - 8% I have to look hard. For 5G have a look at KEYS. I made a nice return but sold it. Now seeing more positive reports. 

Keys looked good but man that buy in price scares me.  with only 5k to invest initially I have to look either shorter term higher risk or longer term lower return.

 

KEYS, NXP, MRVL and XLNX all promised big but...they worry me with their high cost of buy in.

 

Now, what IS interesting is the tower builders and gear makers.  Ericsson, Nokia.  Major importance in the 5g fields.  Tower makers?  American Tower, Crown Castle and SBA.  All huge.  As 5g towers are shorter range that means there will be 4-5 times the volume of them in major urban centres meaning a flood of work and only 3 major creators in the US to do the work.

 

But I reiterate, as of right now.  Staples are my choice of the month.  Commodities etc because I sincerely think the disconnect is going to hit and hit hard.  Already reports of the current and next oil contracts will get beaten and traded in to submission again.  Already reports that the 2nd quarter earnings for everything will be even worse and that 4.8%  negative the US GDP showed today will be even higher next quarter.  Feds talking about further stimulus on a larger scale leaving the US debt load teetering towards $30 TRILLION

 

I am not ready to invest in the big players until this shakes out

[Warhippy]

18 minutes ago, NucksPatsFan said:

Would you recommend a sell? Or do you think the market will continue to grow despite the hard data showing losses?

I don't recommend anything at all.  If you sell sell while it's up, if you don't, be prepared for a long hold out.

 

I don't ever want to be at fault for someone taking a hit because i don't know enough about this to even consider giving advice.