Investing in the stock market - Discussion

[Warhippy]

7 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

What does it mean? It means free money forever (or until it blows up).

 

As for your 2nd and 3rd paragraphs. Now you're getting it. It is a complete bastardization of capitalism by people who extol the virtues of capitalism while demonizing socialism of any sort. Financial hypocrisy at it's finest.

 

What to do about it? Perhaps you're familiar with the phrase "Close your eyes and think of England".

I refuse to accept my tax dollars in Canada being used to prop up failing multi national corporations or the market.  Let the US do it instead.

 

But yes I am familiar with that expression.  It will blow up sooner than later.  There is no question because at days end it all rests on the consumer and the consumer is utterly, completely broke

[Wilbur]

5 hours ago, Warhippy said:

This makes literally zero sense at all 

 

Air Canada just suspended another 40% of it's Canadian routes but is STILL up.  The US just recorded another 3 million jobless claims.

 

By every single metric the entire economy is broken, by every metric the markets should have shattered.  But instead everything keeps rising.

 

For once the numbers make literally zero sense at all.  I get the feeling a lot of would be investors and slow moving people will be caught by a sudden sell of that only those who know, know; leaving them in the paupers pit

I listen to the Indicator podcast from NPR, and how they explained it made sense to me:  Corporations have been using the bailout money to buy back their own stock which basically lowers the amount of stock on the market, hence making it more valuable as there is less of it out there.

[Warhippy]

13 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

I listen to the Indicator podcast from NPR, and how they explained it made sense to me:  Corporations have been using the bailout money to buy back their own stock which basically lowers the amount of stock on the market, hence making it more valuable as there is less of it out there.

They did the same in 2008.  They repealed vital laws in America enacted to ensure that didn't happen again just recently.

 

$6 trillion spent since March.....

[Wilbur]

2 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

They did the same in 2008.  They repealed vital laws in America enacted to ensure that didn't happen again just recently.

 

$6 trillion spent since March.....

Yep, a lot of that which hasn't served any other function other than making the stock market look good.

[Standing_Tall#37]

39 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

Yep, a lot of that which hasn't served any other function other than making the stock market look good.

Do you think it’s going to crumble? 

[Standing_Tall#37]

1 hour ago, Warhippy said:

I refuse to accept my tax dollars in Canada being used to prop up failing multi national corporations or the market.  Let the US do it instead.

 

But yes I am familiar with that expression.  It will blow up sooner than later.  There is no question because at days end it all rests on the consumer and the consumer is utterly, completely broke

I agree. I’m waiting for the other foot to fall, but when do you think this will all take place? My thinking is that once restrictions are lifted and people don’t spend, because they either have no money, or are fearful that this will happen again and would rather build a financial safety net.

[Warhippy]

7 minutes ago, Standing_Tall#37 said:

I agree. I’m waiting for the other foot to fall, but when do you think this will all take place? My thinking is that once restrictions are lifted and people don’t spend, because they either have no money, or are fearful that this will happen again and would rather build a financial safety net.

To be honest, my background is statistical marketing.  I never used my degree because ti was boring but i learned to look at numbers.  NONE of the numbers make any sense anymore so I can't even begin to guess.  I figured this week would be an utter route, but instead everything is essentially up again.

 

As stated earlier the US Fed just dumps money on to every problem and it's an absolute mess.  When?  Tomorrow, 2 years from now?  Who knows.  By all metrics the Q1 reports should have been enough to tank it, the 30 million unemployed in the US should have tanked it, the oil shock should have tanked it.  ALL of that happened at once and really, nothing happened.

 

Because the US just threw money at the issue

[Wilbur]

6 minutes ago, Standing_Tall#37 said:

Do you think it’s going to crumble? 

Not completely.  It serves the rich too well (and they serve the people in power too well).  Just look at China and the States, they'll sacrifice health, the environment, infrastructure, education, etc before they'll sacrifice the stock market.  I'm sure there'll be the odd sacrificial lamb to ease mounting debt pressures, but most of the ultra rich will be fine.

[nuckin_futz]

2 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

To be honest, my background is statistical marketing.  I never used my degree because ti was boring but i learned to look at numbers.  NONE of the numbers make any sense anymore so I can't even begin to guess.  I figured this week would be an utter route, but instead everything is essentially up again.

 

As stated earlier the US Fed just dumps money on to every problem and it's an absolute mess.  When?  Tomorrow, 2 years from now?  Who knows.  By all metrics the Q1 reports should have been enough to tank it, the 30 million unemployed in the US should have tanked it, the oil shock should have tanked it.  ALL of that happened at once and really, nothing happened.

 

Because the US just threw money at the issue

Why did you think this week would be a rout?

[Standing_Tall#37]

1 minute ago, Warhippy said:

To be honest, my background is statistical marketing.  I never used my degree because ti was boring but i learned to look at numbers.  NONE of the numbers make any sense anymore so I can't even begin to guess.  I figured this week would be an utter route, but instead everything is essentially up again.

 

As stated earlier the US Fed just dumps money on to every problem and it's an absolute mess.  When?  Tomorrow, 2 years from now?  Who knows.  By all metrics the Q1 reports should have been enough to tank it, the 30 million unemployed in the US should have tanked it, the oil shock should have tanked it.  ALL of that happened at once and really, nothing happened.

 

Because the US just threw money at the issue

I completely agree with you. I just have no idea why it hasn’t collapsed either. It’s a form of inflation?  I would think that these most recent bailouts would make it even more unstable.

[Standing_Tall#37]

3 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

Not completely.  It serves the rich too well (and they serve the people in power too well).  Just look at China and the States, they'll sacrifice health, the environment, infrastructure, education, etc before they'll sacrifice the stock market.  I'm sure there'll be the odd sacrificial lamb to ease mounting debt pressures, but most of the ultra rich will be fine.

Very good points. 

[Warhippy]

1 minute ago, nuckin_futz said:

Why did you think this week would be a rout?

Earnings reports, shale issues int he US, hitting 30 million unemployed by the numbers, the magical $6 trillion being found to have essentially vanished and done nothing for the common people.  The start of the deferred mortgage issues.

 

Any number of indicators, not including BH losing tens of billions and doing a mass sell off should have triggered a bad week.  Instead...

[Warhippy]

2 minutes ago, Standing_Tall#37 said:

I completely agree with you. I just have no idea why it hasn’t collapsed either. It’s a form of inflation?  I would think that these most recent bailouts would make it even more unstable.

And they should.  Again, at days end everything rests on the consumers.  But there is no real consumption, no travel no large status purchases.  Just wealth transfers.

 

The numbers make zero sense to me at this point.  I am FAR from an intelligent or learned person in the markets but numbers always tell a broader story and they just don't add up

 

[Standing_Tall#37]

1 minute ago, Warhippy said:

And they should.  Again, at days end everything rests on the consumers.  But there is no real consumption, no travel no large status purchases.  Just wealth transfers.

 

The numbers make zero sense to me at this point.  I am FAR from an intelligent or learned person in the markets but numbers always tell a broader story and they just don't add up

 

This may be the one aspect where our thinking is almost identical. 

 

 I’ll tell you one thing in my personal experience from 2 nights ago. At work we were kind of discussing this and there was a lot of talk from people (who are still on pace to make 90-125,000 this year), that even when restrictions lift or if they do, they won’t be spending a dime on travel or luxury, as they feel there could be further hard times and they want to build up some safety funds for mortgage and truck payments etc. 

 

 One of the young guys was even talking of trying sell some of his toys and extra vehicles just in case.

[nuckin_futz]

1 minute ago, Warhippy said:

Earnings reports, shale issues int he US, hitting 30 million unemployed by the numbers, the magical $6 trillion being found to have essentially vanished and done nothing for the common people.  The start of the deferred mortgage issues.

 

Any number of indicators, not including BH losing tens of billions and doing a mass sell off should have triggered a bad week.  Instead...

Wall St doesn't care about common people. $6 trillion can wall paper over a whole lot of stink. Especially when the Fed uses language like "whatever it takes". Their commitment is open ended. That's a signal to investors to flood back in. There's no need to read tea leaves when they are that explicit.

 

BH didn't lose tens of trillions. Buffet realized losses on his airline investments which he dumped out of. The rest are paper equity losses. Which looked real bad at the end of the last quarter. A good chunk of those losses have been erased as the markets have rebounded sharply.

[Warhippy]

11 minutes ago, Standing_Tall#37 said:

This may be the one aspect where our thinking is almost identical. 

 

 I’ll tell you one thing in my personal experience from 2 nights ago. At work we were kind of discussing this and there was a lot of talk from people (who are still on pace to make 90-125,000 this year), that even when restrictions lift or if they do, they won’t be spending a dime on travel or luxury, as they feel there could be further hard times and they want to build up some safety funds for mortgage and truck payments etc. 

 

 One of the young guys was even talking of trying sell some of his toys and extra vehicles just in case.

Damn smart guy he is.  Case in point.  I had a trip to Tofino booked with my family end of July.  Paid a premium for a place in Ukee, almost $400 a night.  Cancelled.

 

Rebooked a nicer place in Victoria and a better place in Ucluelet.  Saved almost $1000 

 

There's a lot of people sitting on money waiting for something to happen.  There's even more so over extended they have no choice but to sell.  None of this makes any sense.  The US just tosses enough money on their tire fire that it damps the flames down for a while, but that paper burns and it burns fast so they have to dump even more on it later

 

Futz is about the best common sense person in this thread for me at this point and even he sees the writing on the wall regarding this.  It doesn't matter what the numbers or consumers say or do, the US is effectively socializing the markets and that is going to skew and screw up everything

[Warhippy]

13 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

Wall St doesn't care about common people. $6 trillion can wall paper over a whole lot of stink. Especially when the Fed uses language like "whatever it takes". Their commitment is open ended. That's a signal to investors to flood back in. There's no need to read tea leaves when they are that explicit.

 

BH didn't lose tens of trillions. Buffet realized losses on his airline investments which he dumped out of. The rest are paper equity losses. Which looked real bad at the end of the last quarter. A good chunk of those losses have been erased as the markets have rebounded sharply.

I still don't get it man.  My entire adult life has been spent dissecting numbers to find the broader story because the truth of numbers is that they hold no bias.  None of this makes sense.

 

The US intervention has made everything so gd top heavy you know what the crash will look like when the bottom falls out of it all

[Boudrias]

4 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

Makes perfect sense when you factor in the Fed. They have told everyone ZIRP is here to stay, you can expect stimulus as far as you can see. In Europe the ECB is even contemplating buying junk bonds. How can anyone fight that? It's a more extreme version of the playbook from 2009.

 

This is where all major Central Banks interest rates are at currently........

 

 

Not going to take much to go negative across the entire complex.

 

Air Canada has been down every day this week. Nothing goes down in a straight line. The market is just a pricing mechanism. At some point the news is priced in. Was anyone surprised by the news AC is cutting routes further? Plus the entire airline sector is getting a lift today (pardon the pun). Why wouldn't AC play along?

 

If it makes no sense now. Wait until the Fed grants itself the right to purchase stocks. Wouldn't surprise me one bit.

 

Don't fight the Fed.

 

 

I was outside painting this afternoon and in a time frame of 1 1/2 hours there were 4 planes that flew over. This is over the Kootenays so what the heck? All 4 appeared to be headed south but that was by sound as I couldn't see them. 

[Boudrias]

48 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

I still don't get it man.  My entire adult life has been spent dissecting numbers to find the broader story because the truth of numbers is that they hold no bias.  None of this makes sense.

 

The US intervention has made everything so gd top heavy you know what the crash will look like when the bottom falls out of it all

But this situation pre-dated C-19 by years. Japan and Euroland have been using QE for years. Now the Americans are going full out. How many polls did we have in Canada prior to C-19 where 50% of the people said they couldn't take a $200 hit. It is like you said when distancing is eased what happens if consumers don't spend? I think you are reading the numbers correctly. Economic thought that when debt is large enough more debt will not increase GDP anymore. Companies that cannot generate enough revenue should go bankrupt. Governments have traditionally bailed them out to save jobs. The point will come when they cannot do this. Government revenue will take a hit as people quit paying taxes. 

 

This is too depressing. I PVR'ed the 2011 Game 6, Canucks vs Hawks so I will watch Burrows get his goal again...   

[nuckin_futz]

5 hours ago, Warhippy said:

I refuse to accept my tax dollars in Canada being used to prop up failing multi national corporations or the market.  Let the US do it instead.

 

But yes I am familiar with that expression.  It will blow up sooner than later.  There is no question because at days end it all rests on the consumer and the consumer is utterly, completely broke

Yes but credit is free flowing and borrowing costs are really low.  So is the consumer really broke?

 

3 hours ago, Warhippy said:

And they should.  Again, at days end everything rests on the consumers.  But there is no real consumption, no travel no large status purchases.  Just wealth transfers.

 

The numbers make zero sense to me at this point.  I am FAR from an intelligent or learned person in the markets but numbers always tell a broader story and they just don't add up

 

You are only looking at the numbers from one side of the ledger.  Those ones do not add up and look horrendous. But the Fed is on the other side of the ledger and they have a rather large printing press and are not afraid to use it.

 

3 hours ago, Warhippy said:

There's a lot of people sitting on money waiting for something to happen.  There's even more so over extended they have no choice but to sell.  None of this makes any sense.  The US just tosses enough money on their tire fire that it damps the flames down for a while, but that paper burns and it burns fast so they have to dump even more on it later

 

Futz is about the best common sense person in this thread for me at this point and even he sees the writing on the wall regarding this.  It doesn't matter what the numbers or consumers say or do, the US is effectively socializing the markets and that is going to skew and screw up everything

Everyone see's the writing on the wall. What Central Banks are doing is completely irresponsible. It's like a game of financial musical chairs. But until the music stops there is no need to get your ass in a chair.

 

There's always a lot of chatter that it's going to crash. It's unsustainable blah blah blah. Let me explain it like this. It's like the Fed is throwing the loudest, most outrageous house party ever. There's a live band tearing it up, there's multiple kegs, scores of hot chicks, good times to be had. Don't be the guy who's bitching the music is too loud and or that someone knocked over a lamp. Get yourself a drink, chat up a few of the ladies and enjoy yourself. Eventually the cops (interest rates) will show up and shut it all down. And whoever owns the house can file an insurance claim, but until then party on.

 

No one wants the old market back more than me. I wish every Central Bank would get lost. I have been at this long enough to remember when the market functioned without interference. When capitalism actually functioned. The strong survived and were rewarded. The weak faltered and were devoured. Now it's all micromanaged. No one is allowed to fail. Bail outs for all (except the consumer, he has to learn his lesson). lol

 

For now, this is the market we got. If they want to ignore the burning pile of tires and pump it to the moon, so be it. Who am I to argue?

 

3 hours ago, Warhippy said:

I still don't get it man.  My entire adult life has been spent dissecting numbers to find the broader story because the truth of numbers is that they hold no bias.  None of this makes sense.

 

The US intervention has made everything so gd top heavy you know what the crash will look like when the bottom falls out of it all

I am a numbers guy too. I keep very detailed stats on all my trading. Always looking for ways to improve results and plug leaks. My head is clogged with baseball stats, hockey stats (no Corsi or Fenwick though, that's strictly for nerds). And of course financial data. I love going through it, analyzing it. But it's all moot now.

 

Case in point, tomorrow morning employment data comes out. In Canada the unemployment rate is projected to be 20%. In the USA it's projected to hit 16%. None of it will matter because the Fed and the BOC have a bazooka.