TOMapleLaughs Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Unsubsidized.Solar and Wind Just Passed Another Big Turning Point It has never made less sense to build fossil fuel power plants. Wind power is now the cheapest electricity to produce in both Germany and the U.K., even without government subsidies, according to a new analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). It's the first time that threshold has been crossed by a G7 economy.1 But that's less interesting than what just happened in the U.S. To appreciate what's going on there, you need to understand the capacity factor. That's the percentage of a power plant's maximum potential that's actually achieved over time. Consider a solar project. The sun doesn't shine at night and, even during the day, varies in brightness with the weather and the seasons. So a project that can crank out 100 megawatt hours of electricity during the sunniest part of the day might produce just 20 percent of that when averaged out over a year. That gives it a 20 percent capacity factor. One of the major strengths of fossil fuel power plants is that they can command very high and predictable capacity factors. The average U.S. natural gas plant, for example, might produce about 70 percent of its potential (falling short of 100 percent because of seasonal demand and maintenance). But that's what's changing, and it's a big deal. For the first time, widespread adoption of renewables is effectively lowering the capacity factor for fossil fuels. That's because once a solar or wind project is built, the marginal cost of the electricity it produces is pretty much zerofree electricitywhile coal and gas plants require more fuel for every new watt produced. If you're a power company with a choice, you choose the free stuff every time. Its a self-reinforcing cycle. As more renewables are installed, coal and natural gas plants are used less. As coal and gas are used less, the cost of using them to generate electricity goes up. As the cost of coal and gas power rises, more renewables will be installed. The virtuous cycle has begun. More Wind and Solar Installed -> Coal & Gas sit Idle Longer -> Coal & Gas costs go up -> More Wind and Solar Installed Wind and solar have long made up a small fraction of U.S. electricityabout 5 percent in 2014. But production has been rising at an exponential rate, and those two energy sources are now big enough to influence when coal and natural gas plants are kept running, according to BNEF.2 There are two reasons this shift in capacity factors is important. First, it's yet another sign of the rising disruptive force of renewable energy in power markets. It's impossible to brush aside renewables in the U.S. in the same way it might have been just a few years ago. "Renewables are really becoming cost-competitive, and they're competing more directly with fossil fuels," said BNEF analyst Luke Mills. "We're seeing the utilization rate of fossil fuels wear away." Second, the shift illustrates a serious new risk for power companies planning to invest in coal or natural-gas plants. Historically, a high capacity factor has been a fixed input in the cost calculation. But now anyone contemplating a billion-dollar power plant with an anticipated lifespan of decades must consider the possibility that as time goes on, the plant will be used less than when its doors first open. Most of the decline in capacity factors is due to expensive "base-load plants that are being turned on less because of renewables," according to BNEF analyst Jacqueline Lilinshtein. Plants designed to come online only during the highest demand of the year, known as peaker plants, play a smaller role. In either case, the end result is that coal-fired and gas-fired electricity is becoming more expensive and the profits less predictable. The opposite is true of wind and solar, as well as new battery systems that can be paired with renewables to replace some peaker plants. Wind power, including U.S. subsidies, became the cheapest electricity in the U.S. for the first time last year4, according to BNEF. Solar power is a bit further behind, but the costs are dropping rapidly, especially those associated with financing a new project. The economic advantages of wind and solar over fossil fuels go beyond price.5 Still, it's remarkable that in every major region of the world, the lifetime cost of new coal and gas projects6 are rising considerably in the second half of 2015, according to BNEF. And in every major region the cost of renewables continues to fall. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-06/solar-wind-reach-a-big-renewables-turning-point-bnef We're well on the way to free renewable energy folks. Great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McCannFan Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taxi Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 The issue with wind power isn't price, it's reliability. A power grid depends on regular and constant inputs of energy. Wind is extremely variable. So you either have to build batteries to store the excess power (which is insanely expensive) or have it merely as a supplement to a more stable source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surtur Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 The issue with wind power isn't price, it's reliability. A power grid depends on regular and constant inputs of energy. Wind is extremely variable. So you either have to build batteries to store the excess power (which is insanely expensive) or have it merely as a supplement to a more stable source.nuclear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOMapleLaughs Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 The issue with wind power isn't price, it's reliability. A power grid depends on regular and constant inputs of energy. Wind is extremely variable. So you either have to build batteries to store the excess power (which is insanely expensive) or have it merely as a supplement to a more stable source.Battery costs are dropping like a rock, even faster than predicted. And is the wind and the sun a more stable energy resource, long-term, than any of the finite energy resources? You betchya. We've really known this forever, but now it seems that technology is finally catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taxi Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 nuclear I agree. Nuclear energy is very clean and safe. Just don't build nuclear plants with Soviet era technology/maintenance or in areas that frequently suffer from large natural disasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taxi Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Battery costs are dropping like a rock, even faster than predicted. And is the wind and the sun a more stable energy resource, long-term, than any of the finite energy resources? You betchya. We've really known this forever, but now it seems that technology is finally catching up. The costs of giant batteries, the kind required to power an entire grid, is still huge. By stability, I was referring to short term stability required to power a grid. You need constant and regular energy input. When power levels are dependent on the weather, that's not possible. Like I said, wind can supplement an existing power source, but replacing other sources isn't feasible....ask Germany: http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/03/25/germanys-green-elephant/ It's been a huge flop for them. The environmental cost of setting up the infrastructure shouldn't be underestimated either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOMapleLaughs Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 nuclearAsk Japan about that. Obviously Fukushima made them reconsider nuclear, and their neighbor China's pollution isn't appealing. So what then? A rapid expansion of the renewable energy sector.http://www.globalresearch.ca/japans-bid-to-become-a-world-leader-in-renewable-energy/5480274 China, meanwhile, is also starting to clean up it's act. Ramping up investment in renewables to cut down on pollution.http://cleantechnica.com/2015/09/07/china-leads-renewable-energy-push-asia-pacific-globaldata/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOMapleLaughs Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 The costs of giant batteries, the kind required to power an entire grid, is still huge. By stability, I was referring to short term stability required to power a grid. You need constant and regular energy input. When power levels are dependent on the weather, that's not possible. Like I said, wind can supplement an existing power source, but replacing other sources isn't feasible....ask Germany: http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/03/25/germanys-green-elephant/ It's been a huge flop for them. The environmental cost of setting up the infrastructure shouldn't be underestimated either.Haha. A few years ago nothing like the OP was feasible. Considering the exponential improvements in technology and sharp cost reductions seen already, obviously renewable technology will allow for the complete inevitable replacement of non-renewable energy. This will probably happen in our lifetime, at least in countries that are embracing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaBamba Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 I'm more worried about all the innocent birds that fly into these things. Think of the birds people? Is power to charge our cell phones really worth the life of a beautiful bird? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOMapleLaughs Posted October 7, 2015 Author Share Posted October 7, 2015 I'm more worried about all the innocent birds that fly into these things. Think of the birds people? Is power to charge our cell phones really worth the life of a beautiful bird? "I'm with you! Gurrkkkk!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surtur Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Ask Japan about that. Obviously Fukushima made them reconsider nuclear, and their neighbor China's pollution isn't appealing. So what then? A rapid expansion of the renewable energy sector.http://www.globalresearch.ca/japans-bid-to-become-a-world-leader-in-renewable-energy/5480274 China, meanwhile, is also starting to clean up it's act. Ramping up investment in renewables to cut down on pollution.http://cleantechnica.com/2015/09/07/china-leads-renewable-energy-push-asia-pacific-globaldata/There is much better technology that can be used then what Japan used or even many of the others around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaBamba Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 "I'm with you! Gurrkkkk!" That bird is in absolute heaven, look at him smiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heretic Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Unsubsidized.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-06/solar-wind-reach-a-big-renewables-turning-point-bnefWe're well on the way to free renewable energy folks. Great news. Well, free for the energy companies to charge us whatever they like unless you go off grid. Suncor is involved in five operational wind power facilities. These wind power facilities have a generating capacity of 187 megawatts (MW), enough to power about 65,000 Canadian homes. Name Location Size Ripley Ripley, Ontario 76 MW 38 turbines Chin Chute Taber, Alberta 30 MW 20 turbines Magrath Magrath, Alberta 30 MW 20 turbines SunBridge Gull Lake, Saskatchewan 11 MW 17 turbines Adelaide Strathroy, Ontario 40 MW 18 turbines We continue to evaluate new opportunities to build our renewable energy portfolio, including theCedar Point Wind Power Project, a 100 MW project in Forest, Ontario and our newest proposed wind project, the Nauvoo Wind Power Project. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cripplereh Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 well we make them here and we are one of the only countries not buying are own wind turbines!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianLoonie Posted October 7, 2015 Share Posted October 7, 2015 Unsubsidized.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-06/solar-wind-reach-a-big-renewables-turning-point-bnef We're well on the way to free renewable energy folks. Great news. Free? Do you realize electricity prices in Germany are among the most expensive, if not the most expensive, in Europe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hobble Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I dream of a day where homes each have their own means of generating electricity for themselves, and surplus energy can be shared across a neighborhood or small region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillooet_Hillbilly Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 is that tesla home battery available yet? a couple of solar panels and a windmill and i'll go off grid for under 10k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lancaster Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Ask Japan about that. Obviously Fukushima made them reconsider nuclear, and their neighbor China's pollution isn't appealing. So what then? A rapid expansion of the renewable energy sector.http://www.globalresearch.ca/japans-bid-to-become-a-world-leader-in-renewable-energy/5480274 China, meanwhile, is also starting to clean up it's act. Ramping up investment in renewables to cut down on pollution.http://cleantechnica.com/2015/09/07/china-leads-renewable-energy-push-asia-pacific-globaldata/ Japan has started a few of their reactors with new upgrades, higher standards, new protocols, etc. Fukushima was literally the absolute worst case scenario. Aging facility, hit with a massive earthquake and then hit with a massive tsunami. I believe it was designed to withstand a moderately strong one....... just not as strong as what actually occurred. As for the wind prices, how does it compare to when nuclear power was still available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offensive Threat Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I'm more worried about all the innocent birds that fly into these things. Think of the birds people? Is power to charge our cell phones really worth the life of a beautiful bird? If you care about birds you will outlaw the keeping of house cats. Responsible for the killing of over 1 billion birds a year in the US alone. A billion a year. House cats are predators that never stop hunting, they dont need the food yet they keep hunting and killing. Add in the insane numbers of other animals they hunt and kill and its a slaughterhouse out there. I found this out on a recent trip to Florida where there are ads on TV by the state Gov asking people to keep their cats inside at all times. The Tesla Powerwall will be available around the end of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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