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Canuck Projections at the 1/4 mark of the season


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As I've done many times in past years, I've decided to calculate how our players are projecting to finish the season based on how they've done so far. I whipped up the calculations and found some interesting things.

Keep in mind that these projections are currently based off of a fairly small sample size, so some things will obviously be inaccurate.

Firstly, let's start with the skaters on the team.

Canuck%20Point%20Paces%200.25%20mark%202

Interesting things to note here:

  • The twins are doing as well as ever, especially in goal scoring
  • Hansen is having a career year (though he was for a bit last year too)
  • Edler's offense is doing well, particularly his goal scoring
  • Burrows is improving over last year
  • Vrbata's having a very bad year by his standards
  • Hutton's 31 assists are impressive for a rookie
  • McCann won't likely maintain a 23-goal rate, but it's a good sign
  • PIM is disproportionately distributed; most players are low, Prust and Dorsett are very high

Now, on to the goaltenders!

Canuck%20Goalie%20Paces%200.25%20mark%20

Only things to note here are negative, though keep in mind that I didn't include stats like GAA and Save %, as those aren't affected by trends. 

  • Miller has an ugly amount of OT losses
  • Miller's shutout count is low

Finally, the team as a whole.

team%20at%200.25%20mark.png

A pretty mediocre record, especially with those OT losses. It still gives us a solid positive goal differential though.

 

I thought this might be interesting to people, so I decided to make a thread on it. Thoughts?

 

 

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I guess the eastern losing streak robbed me of wanting to look at league stats, but I wanted to double check that goal differential. It's surprising. We're right in the pack under virtually every possible consideration. For example, behindthenet's 5v5+/- per60 top ten:

NYRangers
Montreal
Dallas
SJ
Vancouver
Washington
Nashville
Minnesota
Ottawa
NYIslanders

3rd in the league in Goals For. 64. Montreal & Dallas are already up into the 70s leaving the rest in the dust, and there's a tight cluster behind Van - NYR, Ottawa, Washington - sound familiar? But really, these one-goal losses are both killing us and making us a stats anomaly.

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Some individual stats are affected by the small sample size but the team as a whole is realistic I think.

Goal totals are decent which is a relief considering how many people were wondering where the goals were going to come from at the beginning of the season.

82 points isn't very encouraging.  I hope that changes.

 

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On ‎23‎/‎11‎/‎2015‎ ‎8‎:‎16‎:‎10‎, Jack Fig said:

Some good, some bad. Overall, average as expected.

Jack I think you and I are of the same vintage.  We've seen Canuck teams over the years that looked like this one.  A couple of stars and some role players and some young guys.  This team will not be great this year.  No playoffs sad to say. The Sedins like some of the other stars later in their careers will have some good nights (ie vs Chicago).  But on balance its not enough this year.

We miss the playoffs and draft in the top 10. Not the end of the world.

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Pretty average. Only having two skaterd with at least 50 points is alarming, but the Sedin's are on pace for their best stats since 2012, so that helps balance things. Really though, these one goal losses are just killing us. Imagine where we'd be even if we won half of them.

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Come New Years we'll be able to get a better gauge on things. Would be great if Pedan could be a player, now.

But asking this much makes me cringe.

 

Forwards are well above average, D is well below average. Goaltending is well, very average.

We definitely seem average, but at the quarter pole, it's simply too early to really get into it.

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Doubtful twins can keep up that pace all season and I also don't see JH nearing 50pts.  Would like to believe both could happen, but realistically, doubtful unfortunately.   Would like to see JM be able to show that he's capable of stealing games the team has no business being in but haven't seen that so far - still believe he has that potential though. Play of Burr & Edler is nice to see & Virby can play better than his stats as can Hammer I believe. Rookies are doing just fine imo.  

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While it's certainly unreasonable to think the Sedins & Hansen can keep up this pace enough to carry the entire team on their back, and there's inevitable slumps from the rookies to come, it's also inevitable that other players have a rebound in their stats. Vrb is the obvious one - I'd bet my life savings on his shooting % coming back up - but also expect softer rebounds from Burrows, Hammer, Higgins, even Bo as he adjusts to his new role.

Like I said we're in the pack from most angles. I really only see the blown late leads / one goal losses as the issue. They're changing their game in the 2nd/3rd, protecting the lead too heavily. The Devils showed us how it's done the other night - just keep pushing, do whatever it takes, then "Hold On To Your Butts" for the last couple minutes while the goalie is pulled. We're holding our butts way too early, is what I'm saying. Play like you're on the PK.

The easy thing is to point to coaching when it's more of a team defence mindset. Maybe it is a coaching thing, but more like echoes of Vigneault, passed down through the core.

Guys like Dorsett & Prust make more sense to me now from this angle. They seem to have that aggressive, forward-thinking momentum ingrained in their game. It's probably just a matter of how soon this translates in regards to this quarter-past season. All of which is fine by me. My hopes were out to lunch when the season started and skipped out on the bill.

Lucky for us the Pacific is a bunch of face-planting teeth-spewing junkies this year! Drinks on the house!

runs

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65 points 

We have lost alot of bad teams already ,not expecting this to chanhe an could get worse if Miller goes down with a injury.Thats totaly possible with our D!

WD ;rolls 4 lines in first two then spot duty there after for anyone not over 23 years of age . three lines exhaust the aging vets an slower afoot journeymen who are also getting up there in age

playing all the rookies prove to much an effects the vet play things have just started to get tough as the tough get going 

I have lost alot of faith in the resiliance an grit part of compete the mental toughness just not evident enough as overall a real soft team easy to match an beat consistantly night in night out our back to back performance affirms this stat 

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16 hours ago, fanfor42 said:

Jack I think you and I are of the same vintage.  We've seen Canuck teams over the years that looked like this one.  A couple of stars and some role players and some young guys.  This team will not be great this year.  No playoffs sad to say. The Sedins like some of the other stars later in their careers will have some good nights (ie vs Chicago).  But on balance its not enough this year.

We miss the playoffs and draft in the top 10. Not the end of the world.

Absolutely. We need to be reasonable about where the team is in it's evolution, and there certainly are some identifiable limitations in play here. JB just needs to stay the course and filter youngsters into the lineup when the vets give up the ghost. I don't want to be drafting top-10 every year, but one more time will help the talent pool if that's how things work out.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 11/25/2015, 10:44:32, baumerman77 said:

How are these 82 game projections calculated?

Generally, it's simply a pro-ration. If a player has 14 points in 27 games, I'd just do 14/27 to get their points-per-game, then multiply it by 82 games to get a full-season's amount.

The game number I calculated in a more complicated way. I the past, I just pro-rated the games played like everything else. I'd take the amount of games a player has played divided by the total possible games played, then multiply that number by 82. However, this game wacky results when a player was injured early in the season.

Another method that NHL.com does to pro-rate it's games played is to simply take the number of games the player has and add all the team's remaining games to that number. This tends to overestimate the number of games a player will play, especially for fringe players or injured players.

I took a combination of these two, finding out the number for both of these methods, then averaging them. For example, let's say a player had played 23 out of 30 possible games. By my first method he would have (23/30)*82 = 63 games played. The second method would give him 23+52 = 75 games played. I would just average 63 and 75 to get 69 games played. It's just a nice way to balance things.

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