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What is Sven Baertschi Worth?


TTaj

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Given his play recently, it's only natural to wonder what Sven Baertschi's next contract will look like. He is currently on a one-way, one year deal worth $900,000. It was a "show me" deal and he really has shown a lot.

To date, he has 18 points in 43 games, about a 34 point rate over a full 82 games. However, as we all know, his offensive numbers really took off in December before his minor injury. In the past 16 games (starting with a 2 point night against Detroit), Sven has 11 points. That pro-rates to a 56 point pace over a full season. Real impressive stuff.

And that's just the raw numbers, which one can argue is most important gauging the offensive abilities of a top-six winger. One thing to note is that 16 of his 18 points have come against Eastern opponents. The fact that Sven excels against smaller, skilled opposition doesn't surprise me, but isn't a good sign for his stretch-run with a West-heavy schedule for the remainder of the season.

I would get into fancy stats, but I'll let the big dogs that get paid for this stuff cover that for me. The eye-test for Sven is sparkling as well. Whether on TV or live in person, Sven always seems to be in position defensively, ready to pounce on a loose puck. I have also noted that he is very quick to transition to offense, with or without the puck. Slick hands, good vision, accurate shot (very underrated one timer) and of course, his chemistry with Bo is a joy to behold.

Quick Comparables:

Mikael Grandlund- 2Yr/$6M after a 8G, 39P season

Nail Yakupov- 2Yr/$5M after 14G, 33P season.

It will be interesting to see what he ends up with. I believe his contract is going to set a gauge for the young player's bridge contracts over the next few years, as Sven is going to be the first young gun to produce and show a lot of potential in his contract year. It really is an important negotiation to keep an ey on for this offseason and will shed a lot of light on this front office's cap management of young players.

My guess: 2 Years, $4.5M

 

 

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31 minutes ago, WHL rocks said:

Yeah about this. I think it'll be a 3 year deal around 6.

Something like 1.75 - 2.0 - 2.25 on a 3 year deal for an average cap hit of 2 mill per year. 

yes. that's not bad, for some reason I was thinking he meant 6 per. haha 

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1 hour ago, WHL rocks said:

Yeah about this. I think it'll be a 3 year deal around 6.

Something like 1.75 - 2.0 - 2.25 on a 3 year deal for an average cap hit of 2 mill per year. 

My math is foggy after 5 or 6 beers. Would he not be a UFA at the youngest age possible age with a 3 year contract?

2 years or 5 is my approach. We have cap space next year and the year after. Happy to cough up two x $3 mill if he plays well down the stretch. But agreeing with another post that two x $2.5 is a pretty likely outcome?

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3 years 6 mil sounds like a really good deal.  It doesn't go over board and it's not rewarding him for stuff he hasn't done.  A longer term means the team actually has faith in where he is going.

I'd be really disappointed if they offer him only a one year.  I don't want a guy with potential slipping through our fingers.

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7 hours ago, TTaj said:

Given his play recently, it's only natural to wonder what Sven Baertschi's next contract will look like. He is currently on a one-way, one year deal worth $900,000. It was a "show me" deal and he really has shown a lot.

To date, he has 18 points in 43 games, about a 34 point rate over a full 82 games. However, as we all know, his offensive numbers really took off in December before his minor injury. In the past 16 games (starting with a 2 point night against Detroit), Sven has 11 points. That pro-rates to a 56 point pace over a full season. Real impressive stuff.

And that's just the raw numbers, which one can argue is most important gauging the offensive abilities of a top-six winger. One thing to note is that 16 of his 18 points have come against Eastern opponents. The fact that Sven excels against smaller, skilled opposition doesn't surprise me, but isn't a good sign for his stretch-run with a West-heavy schedule for the remainder of the season.

[...]

 

Looks more like a matter of scheduling.  It's the same for Horvat by the way - 3pts against the West for 20pts against the East. 

Since mid-December when their offence started coming - the team played only 5 Western teams.  Baertschi went out on injury in the LA game, didn't play Anaheim or Arizona which gives him only 2 full games against the West: Edmonton and Nashville. 

Going forward it's going to be West heavy.  They are only 3 more games against Eastern teams - all at home: Toronto, Ottawa and the last on 1 March NYI.  

4 hours ago, Canuck Surfer said:

My math is foggy after 5 or 6 beers. Would he not be a UFA at the youngest age possible age with a 3 year contract?

2 years or 5 is my approach. We have cap space next year and the year after. Happy to cough up two x $3 mill if he plays well down the stretch. But agreeing with another post that two x $2.5 is a pretty likely outcome?

By my math too - he would be UFA in 3 years so 2 or 5 would make more sense.

 

3 hours ago, danjr said:

3 years 6 mil sounds like a really good deal.  It doesn't go over board and it's not rewarding him for stuff he hasn't done.  A longer term means the team actually has faith in where he is going.

I'd be really disappointed if they offer him only a one year.  I don't want a guy with potential slipping through our fingers.

If the Canucks don't think he is worth more than 2M over 3 years then I don't think they'll re-sign him.  He was brought in to be a top-6 forward and that kind of money makes him more of a depth player with limited upside and there are probably better options out there.  

See comparables in OP.  I'd add that Niederreiter got 8M for 3 years after a 36pt season and Coyle got 3.2M over 5 years after a 30pt season (he signed at the very start of 2014/15 for this season).

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4 hours ago, Canuck Surfer said:

My math is foggy after 5 or 6 beers. Would he not be a UFA at the youngest age possible age with a 3 year contract?

2 years or 5 is my approach. We have cap space next year and the year after. Happy to cough up two x $3 mill if he plays well down the stretch. But agreeing with another post that two x $2.5 is a pretty likely outcome?

Dead straight:  2 years or 5 years.  If he's becoming what he initially projected to be, UFA is a bigger issue than the amount we pay him on a bridge contract.  So maybe 2 yrs. @ 2.75 per or 5 yrs. @ 4 mil if they're convinced he's top 6 material.  

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Sven has been one of, if not my favorite player to watch this season.  What really impresses me is his play away from the puck.  He positions himself well in the offensive zone and repeatedly busts his butt back on the backcheck.  

I agree with most that a 2 year bridge deal is on the horizon.  Doubt it'll exceed $2.5 per immediately as Hansen has put in his time and that's where he currently sits. Two years for $3.75-$4.

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