DonLever

Donald J. Trump, 45th President of the US - Impeached By House, Acquited By Senate

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, RUPERTKBD said:

Yep. It just shows how partisan things have gotten. These same people love Donald Trump for doing the exact same thing....

It's getting ridiculous actually, they continue to ignore the same things Trump did or has done or continues to do, but then hold someone else to a higher standard when they do it..... And when that other person does it, it's still not as bad as what Trump did, but somehow in their brainwashed minds it's worse.

 

Seriously Republicans, take your heads out of your you know what already, this circus act you're all pulling is becoming sad.

Edited by ChuckNORRIS4Cup

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ChuckNORRIS4Cup said:

It's getting ridiculous actually, they continue to ignore the same things Trump did or has done or continues to do, but then hold someone else to a higher standard when they do it..... And when that other person does it, it's still not as bad as what Trump did, but somehow in their brainwashed minds it's worse.

 

Seriously Republicans, take your heads out of your you know what already, this circus act you're all pulling is becoming sad.

“Ridiculous” is very generous of you. 

 

Make no mistake. This current GOP is filled with very very smart people. Spinning there way through this bullsh*t. They know better but choose otherwise. Only to serve their own perceived political maintenance, against all fact. They are actually willing to sell out their nations constitution for it. Manipulating the weakest and the least educated to their personal benefit 
 

Anyone of these people who are comfortable with this is line of toxic propagation, is a worm. More of a maggot, imo.

 

However, both worms and maggots actually serve a purpose on this planet...

 

 

Edited by Canorth
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Canorth said:

“Ridiculous” is very generous of you. 

 

Make no mistake. This current GOP is filled with very very smart people. Spinning there way through this bullsh*t. They know better but choose otherwise. Only to serve their own perceived political maintenance, against all fact. They are actually willing to sell out their nations constitution for it. Manipulating the weakest and the least educated to their personal benefit 
 

Anyone of these people who are comfortable with this is line of toxic propagation, is a worm. More of a maggot, imo.

 

However, both worms and maggots actually serve a purpose on this planet...

 

 

If I spoke my real mind I'd probably be banned from here :lol:, but it's just getting insane how far they're going now, had to rant a bit :towel:

  • Hydration 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

High level of discourse on here as usual. The right is invested with nutbars and closet Nazis. The left has incisive arguments combined with being paragons of virtue. 

None of this deals with the ugly reality that the world is staggering towards a debt crisis that make these conversations look as foolish as they are. 

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Boudrias said:

High level of discourse on here as usual. The right is invested with nutbars and closet Nazis. The left has incisive arguments combined with being paragons of virtue. 

None of this deals with the ugly reality that the world is staggering towards a debt crisis that make these conversations look as foolish as they are. 

I don't want to take this thread off topic but since you brought it up. What do you see being the straw that breaks the camel's back in relation to debt? The mountains of bad debt in China? The high levels of personal debt in N. America? If you ask me, the most troubling thing (one that virtually no one talks about ) is high yield corporate debt. High Yield is being treated as lower yielding garbage and has been since the recession. That's a major problem and akin to a ticking time bomb.

Edited by nuckin_futz
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

I don't want to take this thread off topic but since you brought it up. What do you see being the straw that breaks the camel's back in relation to debt? The mountains of bad debt in China? The high levels of personal debt in N. America? If you ask me, the most troubling thing (one that virtually no one talks about ) is high yield corporate debt. High Yield is being treated as lower yielding garbage and has been since the recession. That's a major problem and akin to a ticking time bomb.

 

Dont know what you do for a living but you are clearly qualified to talk about these types of things, with authority. Posts like these will always earn an upvote from me, fwiw. 
 

Thanks

  • Hydration 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, nuckin_futz said:

I don't want to take this thread off topic but since you brought it up. What do you see being the straw that breaks the camel's back in relation to debt? The mountains of bad debt in China? The high levels of personal debt in N. America? If you ask me, the most troubling thing (one that virtually no one talks about ) is high yield corporate debt. High Yield is being treated as lower yielding garbage and has been since the recession. That's a major problem and akin to a ticking time bomb.

Just do what Bone Spurs does & walk away leaving the creditors holding nothing but their ****.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For any of you who still secretly hold a flame for Alex Jones.  An article written by one of his ex-employees.  It confirms everything people have said about his brand of "news".

 

It's about a 4-5 minute read, but I recommend it to anyone who's interested or curious.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/05/magazine/alex-jones-infowars.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, nuckin_futz said:

I don't want to take this thread off topic but since you brought it up. What do you see being the straw that breaks the camel's back in relation to debt? The mountains of bad debt in China? The high levels of personal debt in N. America? If you ask me, the most troubling thing (one that virtually no one talks about ) is high yield corporate debt. High Yield is being treated as lower yielding garbage and has been since the recession. That's a major problem and akin to a ticking time bomb.

What triggers a debt crisis? I have been chirping about this before the 2008 meltdown so my wife has largely discounted my opinion. For all the reasons you outlined any one of which could trigger an event. Governments around the world have been printing money for decades now because they cannot generate funds through taxation or GDP growth. They fear restraint because of the reaction by their citizens and for fear of triggering an event. 

 

IMHO the arithmetic of world demographics will force a financial crisis. Political philosophies can dance around the problem but the numbers will carry the day. What happens when governments cannot keep their social promises? Just look at how many cities and states in the USA cannot meet those commitments today. In Canada the combined provincial debt rivals the federal national debt. That doesn't include crown corps. Government deficit spending combined with below normal cost of money has driven pension funds and individuals out of debt instruments to fund their retirements. The USA bond market is much larger than the stock market but funds have been moving over to stocks. That amps up the volitility and risk. 

 

So much of this is a confidence game. Once confidence is lost in the system it will collapse. It was saved in 2008 by massive injection of funds by the US Fed. I doubt that will work again. Just imagine the ramifications of a world that demands 4-5% return on lent money with terms that are stringent. That is a best case scenario. The inflation of Argentina and Venezula is more likely.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Boudrias said:

What triggers a debt crisis? I have been chirping about this before the 2008 meltdown so my wife has largely discounted my opinion. For all the reasons you outlined any one of which could trigger an event. Governments around the world have been printing money for decades now because they cannot generate funds through taxation or GDP growth. They fear restraint because of the reaction by their citizens and for fear of triggering an event. 

 

IMHO the arithmetic of world demographics will force a financial crisis. Political philosophies can dance around the problem but the numbers will carry the day. What happens when governments cannot keep their social promises? Just look at how many cities and states in the USA cannot meet those commitments today. In Canada the combined provincial debt rivals the federal national debt. That doesn't include crown corps. Government deficit spending combined with below normal cost of money has driven pension funds and individuals out of debt instruments to fund their retirements. The USA bond market is much larger than the stock market but funds have been moving over to stocks. That amps up the volitility and risk. 

 

So much of this is a confidence game. Once confidence is lost in the system it will collapse. It was saved in 2008 by massive injection of funds by the US Fed. I doubt that will work again. Just imagine the ramifications of a world that demands 4-5% return on lent money with terms that are stringent. That is a best case scenario. The inflation of Argentina and Venezula is more likely.  

The thing is the whole system is intertwined in such a way now if one goes under, they all go under, so in the grand scheme of things, if a continent like Europe or country like the US for example is self sufficient nothing will really change, whereas a country like Venezuela that had all it's eggs in the oil basket gets royally f-ed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Boudrias said:

What triggers a debt crisis? I have been chirping about this before the 2008 meltdown so my wife has largely discounted my opinion. For all the reasons you outlined any one of which could trigger an event. Governments around the world have been printing money for decades now because they cannot generate funds through taxation or GDP growth. They fear restraint because of the reaction by their citizens and for fear of triggering an event. 

 

IMHO the arithmetic of world demographics will force a financial crisis. Political philosophies can dance around the problem but the numbers will carry the day. What happens when governments cannot keep their social promises? Just look at how many cities and states in the USA cannot meet those commitments today. In Canada the combined provincial debt rivals the federal national debt. That doesn't include crown corps. Government deficit spending combined with below normal cost of money has driven pension funds and individuals out of debt instruments to fund their retirements. The USA bond market is much larger than the stock market but funds have been moving over to stocks. That amps up the volitility and risk. 

 

So much of this is a confidence game. Once confidence is lost in the system it will collapse. It was saved in 2008 by massive injection of funds by the US Fed. I doubt that will work again. Just imagine the ramifications of a world that demands 4-5% return on lent money with terms that are stringent. That is a best case scenario. The inflation of Argentina and Venezula is more likely.  

Well for one, deregulation of the financial sector is one.  Canada was lucky we had intelligent governance and resisted deregulation pushed by conservative lawmakers that started in the US by GOP politicians and signed into law by Clinton.   When banks could risk more and more on risky investments and the money behind those dries up, the market tanks.

  • Hydration 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, canuckster19 said:

The thing is the whole system is intertwined in such a way now if one goes under, they all go under, so in the grand scheme of things, if a continent like Europe or country like the US for example is self sufficient nothing will really change, whereas a country like Venezuela that had all it's eggs in the oil basket gets royally f-ed.

I think it does make a dif where you are. That is why money floods into the USA when crisis hits. The Americans can survive a crisis better as their economy is more self sustaining. For all intent the EU has been imploding for a number of years. There is no bedrock equivalency IMHO. Americans are not stupid contrary to popular thought. Many think tanks down there. I find it hard to believe they have not thought thru a serious financial crisis especially since 2008. Many blame Trump for the USA pullback from long term international relations. IMO Obama was already doing that. Trump is simply more outspoken and aggressive. People should not forget that the USA came out of WW II as the top gun in the world. Their society benefited hugely from that. Are the Americans setting themselves up for another post-war boom as a post financial crisis looms? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, thedestroyerofworlds said:

Well for one, deregulation of the financial sector is one.  Canada was lucky we had intelligent governance and resisted deregulation pushed by conservative lawmakers that started in the US by GOP politicians and signed into law by Clinton.   When banks could risk more and more on risky investments and the money behind those dries up, the market tanks.

For sure. USA banks have whole departments set up to handle collateral debt swaps and derivative swaps. They didn't invent these instruments for their own use. They were facilitating market demand. The demand was there to eke out extra basis points of yield. All platforms in the market are desperate for yield as global governments continue to print money. Debt instruments no longer yield 3-5%. Many pensions have a 8% yield built into their return assumptions. It is the only way they can make their actuarial assumptions work. 

 

In 2008 the system lost confidence for a brief scary moment. I do not think USA banks were the sole cause. In fact the initial crisis was triggered from Europe. I suspect the next crisis will again start in Europe. The USA is in much better shape this time but the Euros are even weaker, as is Canada. Canadian banks just finished their quarterly reports where they universally increased their loan loss books. That hurt their EPS and most of them saw 3-4% drops in their share prices. What happens in another crisis? Canadian banks are core holdings in the CPP and any other pension fund you want to consider. A bonafide crisis puts all these funds a serious risk.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All this 'gloom and doom' talk reminds me of the only thing I remember from my first year economics last where my prof said "It doesn't matter because in the long run we are all dead".

 

The DCAU >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> DCU

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/6/2019 at 1:34 PM, Boudrias said:

I was reading a poll the other day that Trump's support in the black community has grown from 8% in 2016 to 31% in 2019. Record low unemployment rates. Yes he can be re-elected. There hasn't been a single GOP presidential candidate or actual POTUS who hasn't been a nut case since Eisenhower. It depends who you are listening to. 

I really think that poll was fake, just my opinion. I also believe the black community didn't come out and vote as much as they did in the past when Obama was running, because they didn't care as much since they weren't voting for a black candidate, again speculating on that but I believe that was a big reason. But I believe what Trump has been doing as President is going to bring the black community who didn't vote to come out this time and vote, and it's to vote him out, I kind of believe they don't think like him and seeing things like this helps my decision on that a bit more......

 

 

Edited by ChuckNORRIS4Cup

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 hours ago, Boudrias said:

What triggers a debt crisis? I have been chirping about this before the 2008 meltdown so my wife has largely discounted my opinion. For all the reasons you outlined any one of which could trigger an event. Governments around the world have been printing money for decades now because they cannot generate funds through taxation or GDP growth. They fear restraint because of the reaction by their citizens and for fear of triggering an event. 

 

IMHO the arithmetic of world demographics will force a financial crisis. Political philosophies can dance around the problem but the numbers will carry the day. What happens when governments cannot keep their social promises? Just look at how many cities and states in the USA cannot meet those commitments today. In Canada the combined provincial debt rivals the federal national debt. That doesn't include crown corps. Government deficit spending combined with below normal cost of money has driven pension funds and individuals out of debt instruments to fund their retirements. The USA bond market is much larger than the stock market but funds have been moving over to stocks. That amps up the volitility and risk. 

 

So much of this is a confidence game. Once confidence is lost in the system it will collapse. It was saved in 2008 by massive injection of funds by the US Fed. I doubt that will work again. Just imagine the ramifications of a world that demands 4-5% return on lent money with terms that are stringent. That is a best case scenario. The inflation of Argentina and Venezula is more likely.  

If you're not talking about Japan here it sure sounds like you are. They have a terrible demographic problem and a debt/GDP ratio of 238%. The next closest country is perennial basket case Italy who isn't even within 100 percentage points of them.

 

I have been waiting ten years for the money printing to manifest into inflation. It seems in the last ten years the old rule book regarding inflation and recessions has been tossed in the trash. If Adam Smith were here today I am certain he'd be shaking his head.

 

16 hours ago, Boudrias said:

I think it does make a dif where you are. That is why money floods into the USA when crisis hits. The Americans can survive a crisis better as their economy is more self sustaining. For all intent the EU has been imploding for a number of years. There is no bedrock equivalency IMHO. Americans are not stupid contrary to popular thought. Many think tanks down there. I find it hard to believe they have not thought thru a serious financial crisis especially since 2008. Many blame Trump for the USA pullback from long term international relations. IMO Obama was already doing that. Trump is simply more outspoken and aggressive. People should not forget that the USA came out of WW II as the top gun in the world. Their society benefited hugely from that. Are the Americans setting themselves up for another post-war boom as a post financial crisis looms? 

I wouldn't say the EU is imploding. But it ain't exactly thriving either. If I had to pick one word to describe the economic condition of the EU it would be "useless". There is just very little growth. Apart from a few pockets here and there like Ireland and Poland.

 

They have, the SEC has mandated banks improve net capital ratios (basically the cash they must have on hand at any time) and they undergo regular stress tests to make sure they have enough capital to withstand economic shocks greater than the Great Recession. For that matter so have banks in Europe, Canada, Australia etc.

 

That's because they sat out the first 3 years of the war, while the rest of the world including Canada was leaking blood and treasure. They used those 3 years to sell armaments to England (in many cases loaning them the money to buy said armaments) and the allies. In the three years they were on the sidelines their GDP averaged 18%. That's what got them out of the Great Depression.

 

15 hours ago, Boudrias said:

For sure. USA banks have whole departments set up to handle collateral debt swaps and derivative swaps. They didn't invent these instruments for their own use. They were facilitating market demand. The demand was there to eke out extra basis points of yield. All platforms in the market are desperate for yield as global governments continue to print money. Debt instruments no longer yield 3-5%. Many pensions have a 8% yield built into their return assumptions. It is the only way they can make their actuarial assumptions work. 

 

In 2008 the system lost confidence for a brief scary moment. I do not think USA banks were the sole cause. In fact the initial crisis was triggered from Europe. I suspect the next crisis will again start in Europe. The USA is in much better shape this time but the Euros are even weaker, as is Canada. Canadian banks just finished their quarterly reports where they universally increased their loan loss books. That hurt their EPS and most of them saw 3-4% drops in their share prices. What happens in another crisis? Canadian banks are core holdings in the CPP and any other pension fund you want to consider. A bonafide crisis puts all these funds a serious risk.  

You ain't kidding. There's currently $13 Trillion dollars in negative yielding bonds. Just typing that made me laugh. Imagine being a pension fund with a mandate to invest in AAA Governments bonds. "Thanks for lending us your money, please enjoy this tasty negative yielding sh*t sandwich". :lol:

 

Nope, not triggered in Europe (would actually be interested in hearing why you think that). The genesis of the crash was subprime mortgage debt in the USA. In early 2007 you could see the mortgage defaults piling up. Years of "liar" loans and "NINJA" loans (no income, no job applications) were coming home to roost. Soon mortgage lenders like Thornburg, New Century and Country Wide would buckle and circle the bowl. All the synthetic products created off those loans CDS's CDO's swaps etc. that were peddled all over the world as "AAA" <---- looking at you S&P, Moody's and Fitch (filthy lying sacks of crap) would soon infect the books of those who bought them and it spread from there.

 

The crap wouldn't really hit the fan until Mar 2008 when Bear Stearns went belly up. The counter parties to Bear's trades were mainly American Investment banks and some European Banks like Credit Suisse, UBS and Societe Generale. That is when this crap storm really infected Europe. The whole house of cards would implode in Sept 2008 when Lehman Bros couldn't find a dance partner.

 

I doubt the next crisis will be triggered by Europe. Mainly because as I stated above Europe is useless and not counted on to be a growth driver anymore. No one is going to be surprised if Europe continues to struggle and they have made preparations for that.

 

IMO look to China's mountains of debt or High Yield Corporate debt in the USA as the next trigger. But you better believe at the first sign of trouble central banks, especially the FED with rush to provide liquidity until the cows come home.

Edited by nuckin_futz
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/7/2019 at 7:26 PM, Canorth said:

 

Dont know what you do for a living but you are clearly qualified to talk about these types of things, with authority. Posts like these will always earn an upvote from me, fwiw. 
 

Thanks

Thank you for the kind words. FYI I've spent the last 2 decades avoiding proper work by trading financial markets. Started out as an in between jobs thing and well here I am  21 years later.

  • Hydration 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, ChuckNORRIS4Cup said:

I really think that poll was fake, just my opinion. I also believe the black community didn't come out and vote as much as they did in the past when Obama was running, because they didn't care as much since they weren't voting for a black candidate, again speculating on that but I believe that was a big reason. But I believe what Trump has been doing as President is going to bring the black community who didn't vote to come out this time and vote, and it's to vote him out, I kind of believe they don't think like him and seeing things like this helps my decision on that a bit more......

 

 

It's not so much that black people need a black candidate to vote for but more that neither Clinton nor Trump really made an effort to appeal to black voters at all; so they stayed home on election day. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...