Pierre-Luc Dubois Vs Matthew Tkachuk

[King Heffy]

I think they're close enough in potential that I'd base the pick on need.  I think Tkachuk would fill out our future top 6 better than Dubois.  Either way, you're getting a hell of a player.

[baumerman77]

Here are some stats. I put Nylander in because he is the only other forward the Canucks might draft.

 

	GP	Points	PPG	SHG	EvenG	Shots	SPG	Sh %
Tkachuk	65	125	1.92	1	26	230	3.5	17.00%
Dubois	69	107	1.55	3	32	263	3.8	17.90%
Nylander	63	87	1.38	1	24	202	3.2	16.80%
	Position	Shoots	Age	Height	Weight
Tkachuk	LW	L	11-Dec	6'1"	195
Dubois	LW	L	24-Jun	6'3"	202
Nylander	LW/RW	R	02-Mar	6'0"	172

 

 

Two points that are a knock against Tkachuk in favour of Dubois. 

1. Quality of Teammates: Tkachuk has got to play with either Matthews or Marner & Dvorak over the last two years. Playing with players of that caliber are going to make any player look better - from the eye test to his stats. Yes, Dubois plays with Svechnikov who is good in his own right, but not as good as the guys Tkachuk has played with. 

2. Age: This is a well established and powerful contextualizer of draft eligible player stats and performance. Tkachuk is over 6 months older than Dubois. We all know that 6 months at age 17/18 can mean a lot for development. 

 

One point against Dubois and in Tkachuk's favour:

1. Quality of Competition: I would say that the OHL is a better league than the QMJHL. 

[Alflives]

19 minutes ago, baumerman77 said:

Here are some stats. I put Nylander in because he is the only other forward the Canucks might draft.

 

	GP	Points	PPG	SHG	EvenG	Shots	SPG	Sh %
Tkachuk	65	125	1.92	1	26	230	3.5	17.00%
Dubois	69	107	1.55	3	32	263	3.8	17.90%
Nylander	63	87	1.38	1	24	202	3.2	16.80%
	Position	Shoots	Age	Height	Weight
Tkachuk	LW	L	11-Dec	6'1"	195
Dubois	LW	L	24-Jun	6'3"	202
Nylander	LW/RW	R	02-Mar	6'0"	172

 

 

Two points that are a knock against Tkachuk in favour of Dubois. 

1. Quality of Teammates: Tkachuk has got to play with either Matthews or Marner & Dvorak over the last two years. Playing with players of that caliber are going to make any player look better - from the eye test to his stats. Yes, Dubois plays with Svechnikov who is good in his own right, but not as good as the guys Tkachuk has played with. 

2. Age: This is a well established and powerful contextualizer of draft eligible player stats and performance. Tkachuk is over 6 months older than Dubois. We all know that 6 months at age 17/18 can mean a lot for development. 

 

One point against Dubois and in Tkachuk's favour:

1. Quality of Competition: I would say that the OHL is a better league than the QMJHL. 

Thank you BM (Alf likes nick names, and this is now yours). This breakdown of stats, with the accompanying context is appreciated.  Maybe, though, if we are picking fourth and these two are still there, JB will pick the defenceman instead - Chychrun?  

[NEON.KNEE]

9 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Thank you BM (Alf likes nick names, and this is now yours). This breakdown of stats, with the accompanying context is appreciated.  Maybe, though, if we are picking fourth and these two are still there, JB will pick the defenceman instead - Chychrun?  

You meant Sergachev right Alf?

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, NEON.KNEE said:

You meant Sergachev right Alf?

Alf is on the fence with these two. I read one poster's POV on Sergachev and lean to his side, but then before I completely commit to that side, another poster says some good stuff about Chychrun and Alf leans that way.  The rocking back and forth does help Alf fall asleep though. 

[NEON.KNEE]

Just now, Alflives said:

Alf is on the fence with these two. I read one poster's POV on Sergachev and lean to his side, but then before I completely commit to that side, another poster says some good stuff about Chychrun and Alf leans that way.  The rocking back and forth does help Alf fall asleep though. 

Unless Benning gets the 1st overall I want him to set CDC on fire with his pick...just so i can watch it burn...

 

no I just really want him to make an exciting pick...I think Chychrun will be a good NHL'er, but not #1 D-man good...Sergachev could turn into Russian Lidstrom...imagine Finnish Mario (PUJ) and Russian Lidstrom (Serg) all in one draft...

[Alflives]

Just now, NEON.KNEE said:

Unless Benning gets the 1st overall I want him to set CDC on fire with his pick...just so i can watch it burn...

 

no I just really want him to make an exciting pick...I think Chychrun will be a good NHL'er, but not #1 D-man good...Sergachev could turn into Russian Lidstrom...imagine Finnish Mario (PUJ) and Russian Lidstrom (Serg) all in one draft...

Alf would give up cats for an entire year if that wish came true.  (Okay - one week) 

[Outsiders]

I'd take Tkachuk

 

I'd stay away from QMJHL with a high pick.

 

We need a gritty top 6 left winger to complement Baertschi on the Left side.

 

Tkachuk-McCann-Boeser

Baertschi-Horvat-Virtanen

 

 

thats a nice mix of size, speed, skill. And they can all rip the puck.

 

If we drop to outside the top 3 I think Benning takes Chychrun

[Zoolander]

No defenceman in this draft is worthy of being in the top 4 IMO. Chychrun at 5th or lower would be fine.

 

Getting back on topic, I see Tkachuk fitting in well with the group we're assembling. I've watched tons of interviews, as well as highlights and both his personality and tenacious playing style would complement our current group. 

 

Tkachuk-McCann-Boeser

Baertschi-Horvat-Virtanen

 

Only weakness I see here is McCann as a 1C, but you guys get the idea....everyone in that group plays hard, goes to the dirty areas, and can push back. And lets face it guys......we're not gonna out-skill teams like Edmonton (even Calgary to an extent). We're gonna need to find our niche and push them around come playoff time. Which is why I think Tkachuk is our guy.

[Ghostsof1915]

2 hours ago, BananaMash said:

Tkachuk.

 

I don't like Dubois.

I think the opposite. 

[Ghostsof1915]

7 minutes ago, Outsiders said:

I'd take Tkachuk

 

I'd stay away from QMJHL with a high pick.

 

We need a gritty top 6 left winger to complement Baertschi on the Left side.

 

Tkachuk-McCann-Boeser

Baertschi-Horvat-Virtanen

 

 

thats a nice mix of size, speed, skill. And they can all rip the puck.

 

If we drop to outside the top 3 I think Benning takes Chychrun

So if you had first overall in 2013 you wouldn't draft MacKinnon? 

You wouldn't draft Huberdeau?

 

 

[Outsiders]

4 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

So if you had first overall in 2013 you wouldn't draft MacKinnon? 

You wouldn't draft Huberdeau?

 

 

Huberdeau struggled a lot until Jager and Barkov got there. Couldn't top 31 points until he played with them. Plus I believe he played in junior +2 draft years. He was drafted 3rd overall in 2011. MacKinnon on the other hand was compared to Crosby( sort of ) and after his first season of 63 points where he looked like he was going to be dominant he has been okay. Hasn't gotten over 52 points.Theres Monahan in CAL putting up 60+ points a season being a 1st line player right now(Drafted 6th)  while I feel Mackinnon is only a 2nd line player right now, that could change. Meanwhile Barkov drafted 2nd(2013) is trending upwards and got 59 points this year and is becoming a star. Not saying both those players aren't good nor won't be stars. Im just saying there is much more of a risk drafting from the Q. I'd be fine with Dubois, but if Tkachuk/ Chychrun is still on the board id rather play it safe. We know Tkachuk will most likely be a strong 2 way second line power forward left winger that will get 50-70 points a season(in prime) where as Dubois could be a 1st line centre/LW putting up 70+ points a season ( in Prime ) or he could be a 3rd line centre/LW with size putting up 35ish points. Im not willing to select a draft pick this high on "could"

[Ghostsof1915]

1 minute ago, Outsiders said:

Huberdeau struggled a lot until Jager and Barkov got there. Couldn't top 31 points until he played with them. Plus I believe he played in junior +2 draft years. He was drafted 3rd overall in 2011. MacKinnon on the other hand was compared to Crosby( sort of ) and after his first season of 63 points where he looked like he was going to be dominant he has been okay. Hasn't gotten over 52 points.Theres Monahan in CAL putting up 60+ points a season being a 1st line player right now(Drafted 6th)  while I feel Mackinnon is only a 2nd line player right now, that could change. Meanwhile Barkov drafted 2nd(2013) is trending upwards and got 59 points this year and is becoming a star. Not saying both those players aren't good nor won't be stars. Im just saying there is much more of a risk drafting from the Q. I'd be fine with Dubois, but if Tkachuk/ Chychrun is still on the board id rather play it safe. We know Tkachuk will most likely be a strong 2 way second line power forward left winger that will get 50-70 points a season(in prime) where as Dubois could be a 1st line centre/LW putting up 70+ points a season ( in Prime ) or he could be a 3rd line centre/LW with size putting up 35ish points. Im not willing to select a draft pick this high on "could"

I guess I'm still nervous when I hear the term "safe pick". It was applied to the Canucks drafting of Taylor Ellington, and haunted me since. 

[Grape]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

Alf is on the fence with these two. I read one poster's POV on Sergachev and lean to his side, but then before I completely commit to that side, another poster says some good stuff about Chychrun and Alf leans that way.  The rocking back and forth does help Alf fall asleep though. 

[two drink minimum]

2 hours ago, JohnLocke said:

Unbelievable. 

Pierre-Luc Dubois is way better than Tkachuk

Are you guys watching these guys play or just watching stats? 

 

I'm actually surprised that Tkachuk is winning this poll, because the general consensus around the hockey community is that PLD is better than Tkachuk. 

CDC is the only place where people think Tkachuk is better. 

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/showthread.php?t=2050751&highlight=tkachuk+dubois

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/poll.php?do=showresults&pollid=130195

 

Everybody thought Yakupov would be better than Filip Forsberg in 2012. The reality is you never know until you know.

 

Tkachuck

[*Buzzsaw*]

I would take Dubois.  I like his size, shot, playmaking and aggressiveness.  He is NHL ready.

 

Tkachuk is Keith Tkachuk's son... but he doesn't have the same size.  A lot of his scoring prowess comes from being partnered with Matthews.

 

His father Keith Tkachuk was a selfish player, who was more interested in his own stats than the team he played for.  Tried to dump Winnipeg by signing a contract with Chicago.

 

Injured a lot too.

 

Apple doesn't fall far from the tree.

[Guest]

4 hours ago, meh_wassup said:

If we get the 4th I'd take Tkachuk for sure. If we get 5th I'd take Chycrun.

FINALLY someone agrees with me!

[Odd.]

Honestly, I'd be happy with either of those two.

 

EDIT: If were picking number 4 of course.

[Bissurnette]

54 minutes ago, Stamkos said:

FINALLY someone agrees with me!

I got your back man. Who's giving you problems?

[Smashian Kassian]

4 hours ago, Gstank29 said:

Not the same upside as Tkachuk. I see Dubois as a 2nd/3rd line winger and Tkachuk as a top 6 guy with big upside.

Really, I see it as the exact opposite.

 

4 hours ago, NEON.KNEE said:

He's a big power guy dominating at the Jr. level...That is why I value other prospects over him.  He does look like his game will translate to the NHL level, but I don't see him being as dominant...Effective yes, but not dominant.

He's a skill guy with size and a great all around game, he's not really a power-forward type, he's more of an all around high skill guy he just has that size.