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Alexander Edler | #23 | D


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57 minutes ago, Kanukfanatic said:

I think Edler is a much better D on all fronts (other than points) than Gardiner. 

 

Who can weight in with fancy stats on this??

 

I don't look at super fancy stats, but I do look into basic fancy stats (is that a thing?).

 

From what I can tell, Gardiner is a pretty average defensively among Toronto's defense. His biggest two deficiencies look to be hit frequency and block frequency. That said, hit numbers are often inversely correlated to possession metrics and this largely holds true for Gardiner as his possession metrics, especially within the context of his usage, are pretty good. My suspicion is that Gardiner is like the Edler of old with overall solid play, but the occasional huge defensive gaff that makes him a scapegoat.

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Some funny posts in this thread.   Super happy Benning played hardball re. the NMC and that Edler/Agent caved on that.   Now, they should simply agree on a contract.   Go for three years with a NTC to some teams for first two years if he insists.    

 

Bottom line - IF this player is out there in UFA land right now, the Canucks would be interested and would likely be happy doing 3 x $5.5 or even $6 without any restrictions on movement in the third year.   So why not do that for him in current situation?   If Elder, doubt you do much better in open market....so why not just get a deal done?

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28 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Bottom line - IF this player is out there in UFA land right now, the Canucks would be interested and would likely be happy doing 3 x $5.5 or even $6 without any restrictions on movement in the third year.   So why not do that for him in current situation?   If Elder, doubt you do much better in open market....so why not just get a deal done?

Agreed. I think Edler is probably the best pending UFA defenseman right now (age aside), so I'd really prefer to just get a deal done with him.

 

Is it possible to have a NMC for two years, a NTC in the third year, and a NMC again in a fourth year? I've never seen anything like that, but Edler might like it.

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2 hours ago, Alflives said:

I hate the Leafs too King, but Gardiner is actually pretty good defensively.  I’m not a fancy stat guy, but I think his are likely pretty good.

@oldnews can you figure out Gardiner’s zone start stuff?  I’m only going by watching and simple minded stats. 

Well the 'fancy stats' aren't much more than dressed-up simple minded stats anyway Alf.

 

But Gardiner's look like this:

50.4% offensive zone starts

52.2% corsi

Not bad on the surface.

Gardiner's principal partner this year was Zaitsev (69.7% of his ice time with Zaitsev).

Zaitsev's 'possession' / shot attempt differential numbers looked like this:

41.1% ozone starts

49.0% corsi.

 

So the question somewhat becomes, who was limiting whom - Gardiner or Zaitsev?

At first glance, Zaitsev's numbers are better and more impressive.

Gardiner otherwise played with Reilly or Dermott.

 

But here's where I find it both interesting and possibly telling:

Playoffs.

 

Gardiner:

66.7% ozone starts

53.2% corsi

Not good - and for anyone that actually watched the series, particularly the decisive moments, Gardiner was......Gardiner - when it mattered.  Not only was he unable to 'shelter' Dermott on a 3rd pairing, but for what seems like the 3rd year in a row, he looked very exposed when it came to pressure situations, and was unable to handle the depth of Boston.

 

Zaitsev on the other hand:

35.8% ozone starts

49.1% corsi

Seems like despite the small sample, there's a bit of a trend there.  Zaitsev played the harder minutes - maintained a fairly decent shot differential, particularly in tough playoff matchups, playing with Muzzin.

 

My feeling regarding Gardiner - is that he's reasonably serviceable in general, but disastrous in particular, when it comes to the times that seem to matter the most.  And tellingly, it was Zaitsev, in spite of all the bad press and scapegoating he gets in Toronto, that was far more leaned upon by Babcock - who used him in harder minutes regardless, and moved Gardiner away from those throughout the regular season and even moreso in the playoffs.

I think it's a safer bet to assume that Zaitsev is the far more reliable defenseman, whereas Gardiner needs to be paired with someone that can put lip stick on the pairing without the puck.

 

If this team needed a relatively one-dimensional puck-mover Gardiner might make more sense - where he excels imo is in puck retrieval when he's not under pressure, in open ice passing, where he has good vision, and those are decent attributes.  But I don't think this team needs them, and maybe more importantly, I don't think the team can afford the Gardiner effect without the puck, particularly when it comes to tighter, tougher situations, when it really matters.

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3 hours ago, Alflives said:

I hate the Leafs too King, but Gardiner is actually pretty good defensively.  I’m not a fancy stat guy, but I think his are likely pretty good.

@oldnews can you figure out Gardiner’s zone start stuff?  I’m only going by watching and simple minded stats. 

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/g/gardija01-advanced.html

 

Alf, I've seen him play for years as a Toronto resident. The leafs in general are awful defensively and to be fair Gardiner gets alot of the criticism because he has made some glaring game costing errors in the playoffs for a few years running now, so he becomes a bit of a scapegoat BUT and a big BUT

 

His play in his own end is not very good and I'd say poor defensively. The stats show this out but you have to think about them a bit.

 

1. His zone starts have been heavily tilted to the offensive side through his career - 55% to 45%. One can read this as hey he's good offensively, which he is, but can also read it as, as an apparent top 4 player, why is there such a delta? Probably because he's not very good in his own end and he's being used to his strength/sheltered

 

2. His possession stats are good but then you have to think deeper. A) where are his zone starts? b) who's on his team? If you're starting in the offensive zone and PP alot with Marner, Matthews or Tavares, you have a higher probability of having good possession stats. It would be like putting Sbisa out with the twins at their peak whenever they had a faceoff in the offensive zone, if you did, even his possession stats would look amazing.

 

3. His giveaway/  takeaway ratio confirms what I am saying above - this stat is one of the few  advanced stats that can really hone in on a player's individual ability vs stats that can be affected by teammates (imho). That ratio for Gardiner is atrocious- he's a puck giving machine, he makes pizza look like Bobby Orr. Almost every year in the league he's given the puck up at a rate almost 2x his takeaways....and people wonder why Anderson has to bail the leafs out?

 

I like Gardiner's offense but, as someone who's seen him play alot, I really dislike his ability to manage his own end. He's enticing because he's a great skater, see's the ice well, distributes well offensively, so you're teased into thinking, if he can do it in the offensive zone, why not defensive, he's got all the tools, but something does not click for him in his own end. I'm a hard pass on him and pity his partner if he is signed. Unless its Schenn who just stays at home and mops up his messes. But if is Hutton or a young kid like Juolevi, he's going to hurt their development.

 

 

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1 hour ago, 18W-40C-6W said:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/g/gardija01-advanced.html

 

Alf, I've seen him play for years as a Toronto resident. The leafs in general are awful defensively and to be fair Gardiner gets alot of the criticism because he has made some glaring game costing errors in the playoffs for a few years running now, so he becomes a bit of a scapegoat BUT and a big BUT

 

His play in his own end is not very good and I'd say poor defensively. The stats show this out but you have to think about them a bit.

 

1. His zone starts have been heavily tilted to the offensive side through his career - 55% to 45%. One can read this as hey he's good offensively, which he is, but can also read it as, as an apparent top 4 player, why is there such a delta? Probably because he's not very good in his own end and he's being used to his strength/sheltered

 

2. His possession stats are good but then you have to think deeper. A) where are his zone starts? b) who's on his team? If you're starting in the offensive zone and PP alot with Marner, Matthews or Tavares, you have a higher probability of having good possession stats. It would be like putting Sbisa out with the twins at their peak whenever they had a faceoff in the offensive zone, if you did, even his possession stats would look amazing.

 

3. His giveaway/  takeaway ratio confirms what I am saying above - this stat is one of the few  advanced stats that can really hone in on a player's individual ability vs stats that can be affected by teammates (imho). That ratio for Gardiner is atrocious- he's a puck giving machine, he makes pizza look like Bobby Orr. Almost every year in the league he's given the puck up at a rate almost 2x his takeaways....and people wonder why Anderson has to bail the leafs out?

 

I like Gardiner's offense but, as someone who's seen him play alot, I really dislike his ability to manage his own end. He's enticing because he's a great skater, see's the ice well, distributes well offensively, so you're teased into thinking, if he can do it in the offensive zone, why not defensive, he's got all the tools, but something does not click for him in his own end. I'm a hard pass on him and pity his partner if he is signed. Unless its Schenn who just stays at home and mops up his messes. But if is Hutton or a young kid like Juolevi, he's going to hurt their development.

 

 

In fairness to Gardiner, almost all puck moving defensemen give the puck away at a relatively high rate - the list of giveaway leaders is typically a who's who of puck movers - it comes with the territory and the risks they take, as well as the frequency with which the puck is on their stick and they make plays.

 

That's one stat that I don't think really tells you anything about Gardiner that it doesn't tell you about a whole lot of comparables who play a similar role.

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2 minutes ago, oldnews said:

In fairness to Gardiner, almost all puck moving defensemen give the puck away at a relatively high rate - the list of giveaway leaders is typically a who's who of puck movers - it comes with the territory and the risks they take, as well as the frequency with which the puck is on their stick and they make plays.

 

That's one stat that I don't think really tells you anything about Gardiner that it doesn't tell you about a whole lot of comparables who play a similar role.

fair enough but he's no Erik Karlson or Brent Burns who make sooo much of a difference that he's worth it. He's only averaged around 30 pts every year other than a year prior when he hit 52. I think people are overrating his offense.

 

If he's putting up 60-70 pts a year like EK/BB or Letang in his prime, ok you have an argument. 30 pts on average and that kind of ratio. I'd rather give the ice time to Stecher man, and let him have some rope offensively. He had 23 pts last year on our god awful team and he's pretty even give away take away. Don't get blinded by the 'hype'. Gardiner is not some huge pt producer.

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Just now, 18W-40C-6W said:

fair enough but he's no Erik Karlson or Brent Burns who make sooo much of a difference that he's worth it. He's only averaged around 30 pts every year other than a year prior when he hit 52. I think people are overrating his offense.

 

If he's putting up 60-70 pts a year like EK/BB or Letang in his prime, ok you have an argument. 30 pts on average and that kind of ratio. I'd rather give the ice time to Stecher man, and let him have some rope offensively. He had 23 pts last year on our god awful team and he's pretty even give away take away. Don't get blinded by the 'hype'. Gardiner is not some huge pt producer.

I have zero interest in Gardiner - for other reasons - but what I'm saying is that you're seriously overstating his turnovers - which was actually 8th among Leafs and 5th highest on that blueline.  The type of game Gardiner plays, you should expect 53 giveaways.

 

Reilly had 94

Zaitsev had 79

Hainsey 74

Dermott 55

Gardiner 53

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17 minutes ago, oldnews said:

I have zero interest in Gardiner - for other reasons - but what I'm saying is that you're seriously overstating his turnovers - which was actually 8th among Leafs and 5th highest on that blueline.  The type of game Gardiner plays, you should expect 53 giveaways.

 

Reilly had 94

Zaitsev had 79

Hainsey 74

Dermott 55

Gardiner 53

I disagree.

 

Firstly, you can't just use the tire fire of the  Leafs defense as his benchmark, we should care about how he performs vs his peers in the league as a whole

 

Secondly, giveaways alone are not the relevant data point, one should care about (over his career) his average giveaway takeaway ratio, a player can giveaway a ton, but if he takes away a ton too, its not so bad. The wider the delta between those two numbers, or higher the ratio, the worse impact said player can have.

 

Third, his offensive talents have been over rated as I said in a previous post, he has averaged 30 pts for most of his career and had a very wide giveaway take away delta. If you're scoring 60 pts like EK, Burns, Letang in their primes ok, all is forgiven, but he is not.

 

Fourth, I am not saying this is the solution, but again, as above, look at stecher. 23 pts, 11pts, 24 pts on primarily the bottom pair and little pp time in his career on a bottom feeder team. I think its safe to say that Stecher (if given top 4 minutes) could put up those 30 pts (with pp time, not a stretch at all), and he's pretty even in his give away take away over his career. Again, not saying he's the solution but we're better off as a team, our cap, etc doing that than paying a guy who's being marketed much better than he truly is. Gardiner is going to get well overpaid because people 'think' he's better than he is for some reason, the stats don't bear it out.

 

You get me 60 pts sure, be loosey goosey in your own end, you get me 30, ummm no thank you. If he can put up 60 here ok. But if he can't put up 60 on a stacked team in Toronto how can we expect it here, they are loaded offensively.

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21 minutes ago, 18W-40C-6W said:

I disagree.

 

Firstly, you can't just use the tire fire of the  Leafs defense as his benchmark, we should care about how he performs vs his peers in the league as a whole

 

Secondly, giveaways alone are not the relevant data point, one should care about (over his career) his average giveaway takeaway ratio, a player can giveaway a ton, but if he takes away a ton too, its not so bad. The wider the delta between those two numbers, or higher the ratio, the worse impact said player can have.

 

Third, his offensive talents have been over rated as I said in a previous post, he has averaged 30 pts for most of his career and had a very wide giveaway take away delta. If you're scoring 60 pts like EK, Burns, Letang in their primes ok, all is forgiven, but he is not.

 

Fourth, I am not saying this is the solution, but again, as above, look at stecher. 23 pts, 11pts, 24 pts on primarily the bottom pair and little pp time in his career on a bottom feeder team. I think its safe to say that Stecher (if given top 4 minutes) could put up those 30 pts (with pp time, not a stretch at all), and he's pretty even in his give away take away over his career. Again, not saying he's the solution but we're better off as a team, our cap, etc doing that than paying a guy who's being marketed much better than he truly is. Gardiner is going to get well overpaid because people 'think' he's better than he is for some reason, the stats don't bear it out.

 

You get me 60 pts sure, be loosey goosey in your own end, you get me 30, ummm no thank you. If he can put up 60 here ok. But if he can't put up 60 on a stacked team in Toronto how can we expect it here, they are loaded offensively.

You don't need to try to sell me on Gardiner being someone this team doesn't need - or the relative value of Stecher. 

 

Gardiner's giveaways are not the problem with his game wadr.  Relative to the amount of ice time he plays, with the puck on his stick - and the volume of higher risk passes he makes - his turnovers, or even his differential/ratio is not a principal concern - Gardiner's puck moving decisions are not what make him a problematic defensive blueliner - even what you perceive to be a lack of takeaways is not really that relevent.  Edler has 13 takeaways and 38 giveaways (in 56 games) - this ratio says next to nothing about a defenseman's ability - their ability to handle hard minutes, produce vs quality competition, etc.   Gardiner's volume of turnovers and ratio is overstated.

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, oldnews said:

You don't need to try to sell me on Gardiner being someone this team doesn't need - or the relative value of Stecher. 

 

Gardiner's giveaways are not the problem with his game wadr.  Relative to the amount of ice time he plays, with the puck on his stick - and the volume of higher risk passes he makes - his turnovers, or even his differential/ratio is not a principal concern - Gardiner's puck moving decisions are not what make him a problematic defensive blueliner - even what you perceive to be a lack of takeaways is not really that relevent.  Edler has 13 takeaways and 38 giveaways (in 56 games) - this ratio says next to nothing about a defenseman's ability - their ability to handle hard minutes, produce vs quality competition, etc.   Gardiner's volume of turnovers and ratio is overstated.

 

 

 

I also mentioned how his ice time is sheltered prior, he plays against weaker competition, with very strong puck possession players (favorable matchups at home), so that ratio does matter. If you're coughing up the puck alot more than taking it away from weaker players that's not a good sign, especially when you're playing on an offensive, puck possession team. Again context of the ratio matter which you allude to, sheltering vs playing vs top lines, points produced as I said, all make that ratio mean very different things. The combination of high delta, middling points on average, preferential zone starts, sheltering in quality of matchups, all lend insight into the value of that stat.

 

we agree to disagree

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Important to realize that if Edler is not signed this week the price goes up for about 2 weeks, and I wouldn't be surprised to see an offer like 5 years at $8m incl. a NMC from Philly or Tampa. I still don't think that's what Edler wants, so just get it done this week - 3 years and no NMC is a win for all. Gardiner or Myers IMO they just aren't on the same level as Eddy defensively.

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5 to 5.5 for Edler, who is still a 1st pairing D is a very good deal with such a high cap.

 

I am stoked about this if true. 

 

Now if JB could make a reasonable trade for Risto we would have a major high minute munching big 1st pairing D for our team!!

 

I should not have taken the media bait earlier on that said edler wanted the moon.  Sorry Alex!!

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RelationsPosted Jun 20

Vancouver, B.C. - Vancouver Canucks General Manager Jim Benning announced today the club has re-signed defenceman Alex Edler to a two-year contract extension at an average annual value of $6 million.

Vancouver, B.C. - Vancouver Canucks General Manager Jim Benning announced today the club has re-signed defenceman Alex Edler to a two-year contract extension at an average annual value of $6 million.

"Alex is important to our team and has played as the cornerstone of our defence throughout his career," said Benning. "He's a leader with tremendous experience, plays important minutes and contributes to every part of our team game. We're very pleased for Alex and his family that he'll continue his career as a Vancouver Canuck."

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6 minutes ago, 18W-40C-6W said:

ONLY 2 YEARS!!! Announced on Canucks facebook....not sure terms but, smart smart, now he re-signs on one year deals if he can still play post expansion

 

JB haters now cowering in the corner, 4 years too much blah blah blah

You would think that, but they have no shame; saying stupid things and being wrong over and over again doesn't faze the JB haters.

 

I am surprised and pleased at the 2 year term. I figured they would need to give him at least 3 years.

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