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Olli Juolevi | #48 | D


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2 hours ago, Kootenay Gold said:

A lot of the fans on this board remind me of young children struggling to eat their supper because they are only focused on what is for dessert lol. We have some very good dessert's coming but we need to eat our supper first.

As Uncle Freddy used to tell us: "Eat every carrot & pea on yer plate!"

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10 hours ago, JamesB said:

 

Very nice analysis by Major. But I don't think there has ever been much doubt that Juolevi is a smart player. He does make consistently good decisions. And there is also general agreement that the "he does the little things right" -- touch passes, stick positioning, gap control, etc.

 

The issue is more with the big things. Last year at the young stars and at camp he got turnstiled several times. He was in position -- trying to keep a tight gap, but the other guy was just too fast for him.

 

I have been watching this year. He has not been turnstiled -- but it has been close a few times. He has improved. And he is retaining a good gap (not too big). Another "big" thing is that he does not play a physical game and could improve both his shot and strength (as well as his skating speed and his quickness).  Also, I think fatigue is an issue sometimes. So Juolevi is a smarter player than Edler and makes fewer mistakes. But Edler is a much better D, better shot, more physical, more natural offensive agressiveness. And he can consistently put in 25 good minutes a night at the NHL level.  And, although Edler has slowed down, he has good gap control and makes a quick transition from skating backward to turning with an offensive player so he rarely gets turnstiled.

 

I still think Juolevi is a good prospect and I would rate him above Pouliot on the depth chart right now. On the basis of pure performance I would have him as 7th man. But of course the Canucks don't want him in the press box, so I think he will go Utica.

 

But I think he needs to continue working on the basic skills -- skating, shooting, strength. I don't think there is much doubt that he will be a decent third pairing NHL D by this time next year, maybe earlier. But I think there is a ways to go before matches expectations the Canucks had for him when he was drafted.

 

Some of OJ's critics do not "know hockey", but the same is true of some of his supporters. And, as for his critics, some of them do "know hockey". After all, he has not yet made the NHL, so presumably the Canuck coaches don't think he has an NHL skill set yet. And they do know hockey.

Awesome post. The narrative that anyone who chooses to point out flaws in Olli’s game or work ethic (my main concern) “doesn’t know hockey” is ridiculous. 

 

His jump from last years camp to this one, especially with the surgery factored in, is very encouraging. JamesB nailed it....he does the little, subtle things well based on his hockey IQ, but the jury is still out on whether he is driven to reach elite levels in the big things...fitness (strength and endurance) and skating. Assuming that he stays healthy this year, I suspect we will have our answer soon. The coverage of this team is so comprehensive that if It turns out Olli isn’t exactly burning the candle at both ends to improve as a player, we will know. Say what you want about JPat and Botch, this is the kind of thing they will sniff out.

 

Any critique from me towards a prospect comes from a place of wanting that particular prospect to reach his potential. The ingredients are there for Olli to be very good...perhaps bordering on “great-ish” - which from my perspective would be a top pairing guy.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Locke Lamora said:

Awesome post. The narrative that anyone who chooses to point out flaws in Olli’s game or work ethic (my main concern) “doesn’t know hockey” is ridiculous. 

 

His jump from last years camp to this one, especially with the surgery factored in, is very encouraging. JamesB nailed it....he does the little, subtle things well based on his hockey IQ, but the jury is still out on whether he is driven to reach elite levels in the big things...fitness (strength and endurance) and skating. Assuming that he stays healthy this year, I suspect we will have our answer soon. The coverage of this team is so comprehensive that if It turns out Olli isn’t exactly burning the candle at both ends to improve as a player, we will know. Say what you want about JPat and Botch, this is the kind of thing they will sniff out.

 

Any critique from me towards a prospect comes from a place of wanting that particular prospect to reach his potential. The ingredients are there for Olli to be very good...perhaps bordering on “great-ish” - which from my perspective would be a top pairing guy.

 

 

better skating and getting stronger are the things we want him to have to work on if anything at this point, you can't do anything about stupid with a skating coach or at the gym. I'm most excited about OJs poise and decision making, the rest of it will come soon enough and I do think he's on the 3rd pairing to start next season, and not in a sheltered role either, or if there are some TDL deals maybe the end of this season. 

 

 

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6 hours ago, canucklehead44 said:

In Toronto Leafs fans give me the hardest time about Olli Juolevi. This draft in particular we were picking from the OHL - Tkachuk, Sergachev, Chychrun the other potential picks. Plus who have Keller coming off of an outstanding rookie year. McAvoy adds salt to the wound. 

That said, is it justified? Major Canucks Fan broke down his game and he does a lot of little things right. Identifying this over the flashiness, big hits, and points is what separates real scouts from fans.

But on the topic of points, his season/playoffs in Finland were pretty good. He still played pro, but going to Europe while other guys jumped to the NHL made him drop off the radar a bit. 

In total he had a .53 PPG. Here are a few other dmen in their +2 draft eligible year with a few other draft eligible years thrown in:

Lindell - .12 PPG / .28 PPG NHL Career (27 points last season)
Vatanen - .55 PPG / .46 PPG NHL Career (28 points last season .34 - 0.50PPG )
Lydman - .29 PPG / .28 PPG career NHL
Pitkanen (+1 year) - .57 PPG / .53 PPG Career NHL
Niinimaa - .40PPG / .43 PPG career NHL
Timonen (+3) - .50 PPG / .515 PPG Career NHL 
Salo (+3) - .44 PPG / .39 PPG Career NHL 

 

A couple things to note:

1. There are way less Finnish players than I expected and that is looking to change. In 2017 there were 6 Finns selected in the first round. In 2016 there were four, with three in the top six. 

2. In the past Finnish defenseman seemed to get overlooked, with studs like Niinimaa, Timonen and Salo having long, solid careers despite being drafted in rounds that no longer exist. 

3. Another easy comparable is Olli Maata who played on the same team in the OHL. He had .52 PPG vs Juolevi who had .73 PPG. Maata has averaged .31 PPG in the NHL. 

4. The Finnish league is not an easy place to rack up points, and the PPG numbers are quite comparable in +2 and +3 years to the NHL. 

So lets first look at Maata. Juolevi had 40% higher production in the OHL - if that translates to the NHL he will average .44 PPG or 36 points/ 82 games. 

Next I am going to look at Finnish numbers. I am going to use Lindell's +3 year as he skews the stats, and I'd rather go conservative (.61 ppg). 

AVG PPG Finland = .48 
AVG PPG NHL = .42 
= -12.5%

.53 PPG - 12.5% = .46 PPG. 

So when we distill it down based on his performance to date, Juolevi is trending to be a 38 point per year defenseman, which is actually in line with what Sergachev and McAvoy did last year. Now they are young and should improve, but that doesn't see to always be the case with defenseman as we know with Hutton & Stecher. Maata for example has played four full seasons and his rookie campaign was his best. 

I will take a 38 point Juolevi over at 45-50 point Sergachev. Olli understands the game very well and plays really well defensively. Meanwhile, Sergachev is a high risk player who will rack up a lot of points but will also make many plays that will have the coach screaming from the bench. McAvoy looks to be the best D out of the 3 you mention but it is still too early in all their careers to put it into any conclusion. McAvoy defnitely exceeded the expectation of many scouts for that draft. Players are human, and human chance adn develops differently over time. It is easy to use hind-sight and said who we should of picked in stead. Just like atleast 15 other teams wish they have picked Boeser in the 2015 draft and atleast 3 other teams wish they drafted Pettersson in 2017. I am happy with the Juolevi pick and I will continue to support him for his career. Once a player gets drafted by the organization, whether we like the pick or not, as fans we should stand behind and support the player. The last thing fans should do is to run a player out of town. Once that happens, you truly lose the draft. 

 

Also worthy of note is that Juolevi has a much higher points per game in the Finnish league than John Klingberg at the same age.

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2 hours ago, Jimmy McGill said:

better skating and getting stronger are the things we want him to have to work on if anything at this point, you can't do anything about stupid with a skating coach or at the gym. I'm most excited about OJs poise and decision making, the rest of it will come soon enough and I do think he's on the 3rd pairing to start next season, and not in a sheltered role either, or if there are some TDL deals maybe the end of this season. 

 

 

This. MDZ gone at the deadline. OJ goes in. 

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14 hours ago, JamesB said:

 

Very nice analysis by Major. But I don't think there has ever been much doubt that Juolevi is a smart player. He does make consistently good decisions. And there is also general agreement that the "he does the little things right" -- touch passes, stick positioning, gap control, etc.

 

The issue is more with the big things. Last year at the young stars and at camp he got turnstiled several times. He was in position -- trying to keep a tight gap, but the other guy was just too fast for him.

 

I have been watching this year. He has not been turnstiled -- but it has been close a few times. He has improved. And he is retaining a good gap (not too big). Another "big" thing is that he does not play a physical game and could improve both his shot and strength (as well as his skating speed and his quickness).  Also, I think fatigue is an issue sometimes. So Juolevi is a smarter player than Edler and makes fewer mistakes. But Edler is a much better D, better shot, more physical, more natural offensive agressiveness. And he can consistently put in 25 good minutes a night at the NHL level.  And, although Edler has slowed down, he has good gap control and makes a quick transition from skating backward to turning with an offensive player so he rarely gets turnstiled.

 

I still think Juolevi is a good prospect and I would rate him above Pouliot on the depth chart right now. On the basis of pure performance I would have him as 7th man. But of course the Canucks don't want him in the press box, so I think he will go Utica.

 

But I think he needs to continue working on the basic skills -- skating, shooting, strength. I don't think there is much doubt that he will be a decent third pairing NHL D by this time next year, maybe earlier. But I think there is a ways to go before matches expectations the Canucks had for him when he was drafted.

 

Some of OJ's critics do not "know hockey", but the same is true of some of his supporters. And, as for his critics, some of them do "know hockey". After all, he has not yet made the NHL, so presumably the Canuck coaches don't think he has an NHL skill set yet. And they do know hockey.


“I am not the flashiest player and my game, you kind of need to know hockey to see those little things when I do them right."

 

use the quote I was referring too for context.  BTW, that’s OJ’s words and for those that use the word ‘bust’ and ‘disappointment’ with OJ, well they just don’t get it.  

 

Personally I have OJ ranked around your spot, based on the moment. This is due to his conditioning only. His IQ and skill is tops for our club.   

 

 

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Juolevi will surprise a lot but I am not sure if it'll be on our club. Rather then the olden days of trading picks we would have enough assets to explore the options of a package deal.

 

I rather have knowing that notion then not because I know my club is well endowed in plethora of talents. 

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1 hour ago, Hairy Kneel said:

players I would have preferred over OJ used to be just MT and Sergie

 

now its also  MT,  Sergie,  Keller,  Nylander,  McAvoy,  Borgstrom

 

sorry it's  IMHO or just need more patience?

 

 

 

21 minutes ago, Standing_Tall#37 said:

I might even add chychrun and Jost to that list.

You're not wrong but that's just hindsight. My friend goes through older drafts and always tells me that instead of X, we could have had Y, Z, A, B, or C. I always reply, "Yes, but so what?" You'll just drive yourself crazy mulling over missed chances. Juolevi clearly wasn't the best D or best player we had a chance to pick. Does that make him a bad player right now? No. 

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23 minutes ago, Where's Wellwood said:

 

You're not wrong but that's just hindsight. My friend goes through older drafts and always tells me that instead of X, we could have had Y, Z, A, B, or C. I always reply, "Yes, but so what?" You'll just drive yourself crazy mulling over missed chances. Juolevi clearly wasn't the best D or best player we had a chance to pick. Does that make him a bad player right now? No. 

Tkachuk may have been considered a better player, but at the time, he was by far the best d-man available. 
Leading up to the draft that guy was a winner: the memorial cup, and the World Juniors and he was the main defenseman for both. 
At the time, he was the right choice. Sometimes things don't pan out. 

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1 hour ago, Where's Wellwood said:

 

You're not wrong but that's just hindsight. My friend goes through older drafts and always tells me that instead of X, we could have had Y, Z, A, B, or C. I always reply, "Yes, but so what?" You'll just drive yourself crazy mulling over missed chances. Juolevi clearly wasn't the best D or best player we had a chance to pick. Does that make him a bad player right now? No. 

I guess I am still hanging on to that moment the pick was announced and I sat there literally dumbfounded, gaping at my tv screen choked. Talk about feeling disillusioned then trying to be hopeful at first,  now just been meh every year so far. but w.e.

not hating on OJ just not ever seeing his game yet, ever.

...still hopeful.. 

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1 hour ago, Top Sven Baercheese said:

Tkachuk may have been considered a better player, but at the time, he was by far the best d-man available. 
Leading up to the draft that guy was a winner: the memorial cup, and the World Juniors and he was the main defenseman for both. 
At the time, he was the right choice. Sometimes things don't pan out. 

Felt like teams jumped on that World Cup Finnish team with blind draft selection.

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