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Brett McKenzie | C


-Vintage Canuck-

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From the Canucks Army midterm prospects rankings: http://canucksarmy.com/2017/1/17/canucks-army-midterm-prospect-rankings-11-12

 

McKenzie is #11 in their rankings.

 

Putting the writeups in spoilers. Open below to read:

 



 

#11 BRETT MCKENZIE 

McKenzie stats 

Clocking in at #11 on our consensus ranking is Brett McKenzie, whom the Canucks selected in the seventh round of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft, 194th overall, fresh off a 53-point performance with the OHL's North Bay Battalion. With an expected success percentage of 15%, he was one of the Canucks best value picks of the draft. Since then, McKenzie's done everything to live up to that billing, scoring at just a hair above a point-per-game pace and leading the Battalion in assists and points. This jump in production also caused McKenzie's expected success percentage to jump to 18%, the highest it's ever been.

 brett_mckenzie_cohort_720

brett_mckenzie_y2y_480 

I've been a fan of McKenzie from day one. I was the only Canucks Army writer to give McKenzie a vote in our preseason rankings, and I actually had him ranked three slots higher than the consensus. Part of the reason I was drawn to McKenzie is that he's the rare player that can draw rave reviews from both analytics types and old-school scouts. He's got all the physical tools to be an NHL player someday, which indicates that he may have more in common with the 18% of his height and production-based matches that became NHL regulars than with the 82%. 

I was given the opportunity to see McKenzie in person at the 2016 Young Stars Classic, and while he didn't particularly stand out, he looked poised and comfortable, as well as being one of the most physically strong players at the tournament, winning multiple puck battles. Some of this was almost certainly due to being one of the older and larger prospects at the tournament, but it's a good sign, especially given that he's backed it up with strong play in the OHL this season. 

McKenzie doesn't possess one particular elite skill, but he can do a little bit of everything. He can hit, has a good release, and plays on both special teams for the Battalion. He's also got a big body, and we all know that's something scouts gravitate towards. What's impressed me most about McKenzie from watching game tape from his most recent season is his skating and lateral movement, which he shows off repeatedly in the game highlights from this game against the Flint Firebirds. 



McKenzie's development path is encouraging, but it's important to keep expectations reasonable, given that he's in his fourth year of major junior, playing against younger and more inexperienced competition. 

When looking through McKenzie's pGPS matches from the OHL, the vast majority that were able to do make the jump did so as bottom six players.

brett_mckenzie_bar_lines_480 

Even still, McKenzie's well-rounded game gives him a good shot at developing into a utility player for the Canucks. One that can kill penalties, play a 200-foot game and play up your lineup in the event of an injury. It's not terribly exciting, but it's still value added for a player selected in the seventh round. And given that Mckenzie plays a premium position, he may have a leg up on some of his competition to one day make the big club.

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51 minutes ago, -Vintage Canuck- said:

Brett Mckenzie with 1 goal today. He now has 46 points (20 goals and 26 assists) in 43 games.

Although I don't imagine him being a 2nd line center, I wouldn't mind him forming into a bottom 6 forward. If he becomes our 2nd line center when the Sedins eventually retire, that would just be icing on the cake and Benning would be praised by most of us on here for making this late round gem

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11 minutes ago, Beary Sweet said:

Although I don't imagine him being a 2nd line center, I wouldn't mind him forming into a bottom 6 forward. If he becomes our 2nd line center when the Sedins eventually retire, that would just be icing on the cake and Benning would be praised by most of us on here for making this late round gem

is there indication that he could become a second line centreman in the NHL? 

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12 hours ago, Odd. said:

Was he an overager when we drafted him? I think we drafted 2 or 3 overage guys last draft if I can recall.

Stukel, Abols, and McKenzie were all draft re-entries. 

 

There was a lot of fanfare in the analytics community about the Leafs exploiting "market inefficiencies" in the draft by heavily investing in overage/re-entry picks in 2016 (scouting agencies tend to undervalue these players compared to how stats models project their success odds).

 

Overlooked by most is the fact that Vancouver employed a similar strategy in both their 2016 late round picks and also in many of the players the Canucks targeted for prospects camp invites and undrafted free agent signings.

 

Probably not as much fun to write about something when "dinosaur" Jim Benning is using some of the same new school strategies they'd prefer to attribute to "wunderkinds" like Kyle Dubas. ;) 

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1 hour ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

Stukel, Abols, and McKenzie were all draft re-entries. 

 

There was a lot of fanfare in the analytics community about the Leafs exploiting "market inefficiencies" in the draft by heavily investing in overage/re-entry picks in 2016 (scouting agencies tend to undervalue these players compared to how stats model project their success odds).

 

Overlooked by most is the fact that Vancouver employed a similar strategy in both their 2016 late round picks and also in many of the players the Canucks targeted for prospects camp invites and undrafted free agent signings.

 

Probably not as much fun to write about something when "dinosaur" Jim Benning is using some of the same new school strategies they'd prefer to attribute to "wunderkinds" like Kyle Dubas. ;) 

For our prospect pool that had so many holes in it, taking these draft re-entry players was a smart move. They can step into professional hockey sooner and begin their development with players from previous draft classes. Next year there are going to be a bunch of players from the 2015 and 16 drafts who will be turning 20 and turning pro together. The biggest (pun intended) find was Nikita Tryamkin in 2014, who was 20 and on his 3rd and final run through the draft. It's hard not to like what Benning is doing in terms of building through the draft.

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On 1/23/2017 at 2:13 AM, canuckledraggin said:

For our prospect pool that had so many holes in it, taking these draft re-entry players was a smart move. They can step into professional hockey sooner and begin their development with players from previous draft classes. Next year there are going to be a bunch of players from the 2015 and 16 drafts who will be turning 20 and turning pro together. The biggest (pun intended) find was Nikita Tryamkin in 2014, who was 20 and on his 3rd and final run through the draft. It's hard not to like what Benning is doing in terms of building through the draft.

I agree. 

I think Benning's strongest work has been drafting and re-stocking our prospects cupboard will more quality prospects. 'cause it's been bare for so long. that kind of work takes time, and he's doing a wonderful job in that aspect of his work in a short time. 

As for trades, that's more 50/50, even though the two biggest trades he's made that have seemingly panned out are Baer and Granny. 

 

 

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