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{Article} Can Canucks become playoff team? Jason Botchford


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Here is an article by Botchford..


http://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/can-canucks-become-playoff-team-they-have-a-lot-of-ground-to-make-up#comments

"Barring a game-changing trade, the Canucks’ 2016-17 roster looks pretty set.

Questions, of course, abound. Will Anton Rodin’s skills translate in the NHL? Is Erik Gudbranson an improvement on Dan Hamhuis? Is Bo Horvat really best-suited in a defensive role after leading the team in scoring in last season’s second half? Is there enough playing time on defence for three players most slotted for a third pairing, Luca Sbisa, Nikita Tryamkin and Philip Larsen? And where exactly is Alex Burrows going to fit in?

But there is one question that trumps all. At least for the Canucks’ front office, and the sub-section of fans who can’t stomach a rebuilding team. Is this Canucks roster good enough to make the playoffs?


Management sure hopes so. Moves like trading futures for Gudbranson and signing Loui Eriksson, the best 31-year-old winger available, to a six-year deal, are transactions you make in an attempt to get back to the post-season sooner rather than later. But when last season ended, Vancouver had a long way to go.



Consider the average playoff team finished last season with 231.88 goals for. The Canucks, meanwhile, managed to score just 191. That difference of half-a-goal per game just to be among the average playoff teams is massive.

The lowest-scoring teams in the playoffs were Detroit, which put up 211, in the Eastern Conference, and Minnesota, which dumped 216 into the net, in the Western. That’s a not-insignificant, 10-per-cent bump on the Canucks’ scoring rate.

If only scoring was the issue. The Canucks had an equally difficult time, relatively speaking, preventing goals. Vancouver allowed 243 goals on the season, 2.96 per game, while playoff teams averaged just 208.3 surrendered on the season.

If the Canucks are going to get back into the top eight, their defence will need to markedly improve. The worst defensive playoff team, the Dallas Stars, if you’re judging by goals allowed, gave up 230. But the Stars scored the most goals in hockey.


Obviously, a healthy Brandon Sutter would move the needle here. It would make the Canucks deeper, and better defensively. And Eriksson can do the same while possibly piling up 25-30 goals. But you can’t just simply add that to last year’s totals.



Playing with the Sedins for most of the season, Jannik Hansen finished fourth in the NHL in goals-per-hour scored at even strength. Even matching that will be no can of corn for Eriksson, which is why there’s an intriguing theory making the rounds that the Canucks would be better off keeping Hansen with the twins, allowing Eriksson to improve the goal production on Sutter’s line.

The Canucks did perform adequately in one key area. Their even-strength save percentage, while not quite average among the playoff teams, was 92.57 per cent, which was better than four of the teams that earned a spot in the post-season. An average playoff team finished with a 92.8-per-cent, even-strength save percentage.

Maybe most telling, however, is how the Canucks performed in even-strength shot-attempt differential (or Corsi). There were only three teams who finished with a worse percentage than the Canucks’ 47.2. Figuratively, that’s not even close to keeping your head above water. The top nine teams in shot-attempt differential all made the playoffs, and the average among the 16 playoff teams was 51.2. The Rangers, who made the playoffs in the East, and may not do it again, finished slightly ahead of the Canucks with an even-strength, shot-attempt differential of 47.4 per cent.

So while the Canucks were miles off league average, they weren’t that far from a couple of the worst teams to make the playoffs.
Of course, for a team to make the playoffs with a sub-50-per-cent, shot-attempt differential, a lot of other things have to go right. And, really, that’s the only way the Canucks are going to be playing in late April."

 

 

 

 

I think if the Canucks were to have a healthier season along with the additions of Gudbranson and Eriksson along with Tryamkin (who should make an excellent improvement over Bartkowski), along with more secondary scoring they will make the playoffs. 

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I disagree with a few of those statements:

 

1)  The Gudbranson trade wasn't made just to make the playoffs this year.  He could be here for the next 10+ years.  This wasn't a "sacrifice the future for now trade", it was a "we really wanted to solidify our defense now and for the future" trade.  Gudbranson is 24 not 34, yeesh.

2)  Just because Horvat would slot down to "3rd line centre" does not mean he will play a defensive role.  If Brandon Sutter centres the second line, I'm sure that line will most of the defensive responsibilities.  The template of 1st line = primary scoring line, 2nd line = secondary scoring line, 3rd line = shut down line, 4th line = energy line is becoming less and less relevant.

 

Bottom line though, is this a playoff team?  If 90% of things go right, then I say yes.  They're playing on a thin margin though so I wouldn't put much money on it.  Time will tell though, that's why we watch the games.

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I expect a bounce back year, but am still anticipating a trade.  I expect Horvat and Sutter to have good years, along with the Twins with Eriksson, and then Etem and Baer. I also expect the added size and toughness on the back-end to make a difference.

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3 minutes ago, Derp... said:

It's possible that they score 30 goals more and give up 30 goals less, but it's not going to just happen. They need to over achieve a bit. 44 wins is a lot, but they have the depth and goaltending to do it this year.

Providing they don't get too battered with injuries, I can see this team allowing 30 fewer goals as the defense has improved, externally and hopefully with internal improvement of Hutton and Tryamkin.

 

Agree with you that scoring 30 more goals isn't very likely.

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Sorry  - ain't going to happen this year.

 

Forwards are a lethal combination of both too old  ,  and too young.

 

Not enough forwards in their prime.

 

Look for drop in first line production  ( older players getting yet older and declining )

 

Look for gain in second line production ( kids developing and improving ) 

 

This will end up being a wash  so look to finish where we were last year in scoring. 

 

In terms of Defence we have the best chance at improving.  Losing Hammer will definately hurt. Guddy may almost provide the same minutes though.  Big question mark for me is Edler.  I see his game declining   year after year.

Tanev and Hutton are the X factors -  Will they take another step up .

Overall i see our D possibly improving next year.

 

Goaltending.   I think we have solid goaltending last year. Not sure if improvement is possible. It may be controversy time as Marky is getting to the point now of really being our number 1.  We had great goaltending last year so i doubt it is an area we can improve on.

 

Overall.  Forward proeduction down. Defence up. Goaltending likely down.

 

Next week - lets look at special teams. 

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3 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

I disagree with a few of those statements:

 

1)  The Gudbranson trade wasn't made just to make the playoffs this year.  He could be here for the next 10+ years.  This wasn't a "sacrifice the future for now trade", it was a "we really wanted to solidify our defense now and for the future" trade.  Gudbranson is 24 not 34, yeesh.

2)  Just because Horvat would slot down to "3rd line centre" does not mean he will play a defensive role.  If Brandon Sutter centres the second line, I'm sure that line will most of the defensive responsibilities.  The template of 1st line = primary scoring line, 2nd line = secondary scoring line, 3rd line = shut down line, 4th line = energy line is become less and less relevant.

 

Bottom line though, is this a playoff team?  If 90% of things go right, then I say yes.  They're playing on a thin margin though so I wouldn't put much money on it.  Time will tell though, that's why we watch the games.

#1 is bang on. I hate how people hate on Benning for that trade because they never did any research on Gudbranson and think he's in his mid-30's. Therefore, they think that JB is sacrificing the future...

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 dcorp is a major upgrade

out - bartoski, pee wee weber and glass house hamhuis 

in - russian  twin towers pedan and tryamkin,  mean shutdown guy guddy, healthy edler, yr older hutton.  larsen, olson, subban, stecher, juolevi pushing up from minors.

 

forwards - out vrbata, higgins, 

in - eriksson, gaunce. faster more offense

 

 if benning has  any changes planned it would require a major trade

(tanev, sbisa, dorsett, hansen) could all be used by teams trying to get further in to cup contention.             as much as i like new dcorp we still could upgrade our ppqb if larsen  doesnt light it up with opportunity. As for wingers we should try and pry away a sniper.

 

burrows and miller will be traded by deadline their time is done here. burrows maybe even sooner etem, gaunce and grenier all could provide same play at fifth the cost 

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26 minutes ago, -Vintage Canuck- said:

They will make the playoffs.

Parity in NHL is always talked about and I think that will return. One thing a better start and stronger defense will build confidence. Confidence will be the key. So many games last year we lost before we even hit the ice.

^^^^

I agree we need that extra forward to help with 20 or so goals.Trade/ufa

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6 minutes ago, kingofsurrey said:

Don't see Sutter as a  2 C. 

 

Prefer to have a 2 C that can pass the puck and make linemates better.  Keep Bo as the 2C. 

I wouldn't get caught up in the traditional responsibilities of the 1st to 4th lines.  Teams are trying to construct lines that can all score goals now.  With how the Canuck roster in particular is shaping up the Canucks second line, featuring Sutter, could easily be the better shutdown line (pair him with Hansen?) and then open up Horvat and his linemates (Baerstchi +?) for more offensive opportunities.

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4 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

I wouldn't get caught up in the traditional responsibilities of the 1st to 4th lines.  Teams are trying to construct lines that can all score goals now.  With how the Canuck roster in particular is shaping up the Canucks second line, featuring Sutter, could easily be the better shutdown line (pair him with Hansen?) and then open up Horvat and his linemates (Baerstchi +?) for more offensive opportunities.

Fair enough. We saw Willie roll all 4 last year.  Seems to want to save minutes on hank and dank .

Seemed weird to see prust and dorset get minutes.

 

I see rolling the top 3 lines.   4th not so much.....

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Do we get the twins of the 2nd half(oh oh), or the season's 1st half? They were worn down.

 

Should excessive whacks go unpenalized, league-sanctioned violence begets injuries. It's no coincidence that injuries will pile up if a$*wholes like Hallorhan call nothing. Opponents start realizing what they can get away with. Will be watching this, early season.

 

IF this team stays healthy, they could surprise. If they get decimated by injuries?..won't surprise me.

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I think you have to look at the last two seasons together to figure out what the Canucks have.  The rosters last year and the year before were pretty similar.

 

One year we made the playoffs with one of the best point totals in franchise history, and the next year we were at the bottom of the barrel.

 

One year almost all the secondary players had careers years, the other year most of them were hurt and replaced by AHL players.

 

So, if you split the middle and figure that it is likely that not everything is going to go right like in 2014-15 and that it is not likely that everything goes wrong like in 2015-16... then our team is somewhere in the middle.

 

That middle is either a just a few points into the wildcard or final division spot... or missing the playoffs by just a few points.  I hedge towards "just" making the playoffs as we have made some improvements to the roster and our developing younger guys should at least offset the decline of the older veterans (I actually expect the Sedins and Burrows to outperform last season by a pretty decent margin while Hansen falls back to earth a bit).

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20 minutes ago, Provost said:

I think you have to look at the last two seasons together to figure out what the Canucks have.  The rosters last year and the year before were pretty similar.

 

One year we made the playoffs with one of the best point totals in franchise history, and the next year we were at the bottom of the barrel.

 

One year almost all the secondary players had careers years, the other year most of them were hurt and replaced by AHL players.

 

So, if you split the middle and figure that it is likely that not everything is going to go right like in 2014-15 and that it is not likely that everything goes wrong like in 2015-16... then our team is somewhere in the middle.

 

That middle is either a just a few points into the wildcard or final division spot... or missing the playoffs by just a few points.  I hedge towards "just" making the playoffs as we have made some improvements to the roster and our developing younger guys should at least offset the decline of the older veterans (I actually expect the Sedins and Burrows to outperform last season by a pretty decent margin while Hansen falls back to earth a bit).

The Canucks could achieve this middle part if they have better luck with the 3 on 3, holding their leads and capitalizing  on the power play more often, along with those secondary players having a healthier season. 

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