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HOF vs 1st over all picks


kylecanuck

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Just heard a very interesting baseball stat that is not only amazing but indicant on what a first over all pick could get you in a draft. 

 

Ken griffy jr was just elected to the hall of fame, he is the first ever first overall pick in MLB history to be elected into the hall

of fame. 

 

MLB has 1 out of 310 = .3%

 

NFL/AFL has 14 out of 303 = 4%

 

NBA has 11 out of 160 members = 6%

 

NHL has 7 out of 268 = 2%

 

 

While the first overall these days seems like a sure fire, it shows that in all major sports, only a total of 33 players have been elected to their respected halls of fame. 

 

Are you guaranteed a good player with the first over all, in this day and age? As history is bound to repeat itself, is this a trend that we will continue to see or will first over alls start being locks for the HOF?

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Be interesting to analyze top 5 picks from 1970~1990..100 players, to see the % that have reached the HHOF. You'd need a reasonable period after their retirements, to analyze this accurately.

 

In time if we juxtapose the 1990~2010 period, the % would probably markedly increase, due to superior scouting techniques & dollars allocated to the process.

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9 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Did the time shift to 2250 AD?? How in Gawd's name are there 300 1st OA's in any sport?!

LOL!

 

Let's hope the next 268 years for the Canucks will be better than the last 268 years.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Did the time shift to 2250 AD?? How in Gawd's name are there 300 1st OA's in any sport?!

 

 

No but if you really think about it, maybe the total number of people mentioned in the HOF for their respected sports is the total number of people in the HOF and not just first over all picks? 

 

 

Always think, then hit reply

 

 

 

to clarify, people in each HOF doesnt just include players. There are coaches, managers, and even announcers/broadcasters in the HOF

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, kylecanuck said:

 

 

No but if you really think about it, maybe the total number of people mentioned in the HOF for their respected sports is the total number of people in the HOF and not just first over all picks? 

 

 

Always think, then hit reply

 

 

 

to clarify, the total number of people in each HOF doesnt just include players either. There are coaches, managers, and even announcers/broadcasters in the HOF

 

 

 

There are 268 PLAYERS in the NHL Hall of Fame so that number is correct.  There are 105 BUILDERS, which includes coaches, managers, owners, etc.  And there are 16 referees/linesmen...

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23 minutes ago, kylecanuck said:

 

 

No but if you really think about it, maybe the total number of people mentioned in the HOF for their respected sports is the total number of people in the HOF and not just first over all picks? 

 

 

Always think, then hit reply

 

 

 

to clarify, the total number of people in each HOF doesnt just include players either. There are coaches, managers, and even announcers/broadcasters in the HOF

 

 

 

lol, in order?

 

Well, in fairness it may not have been worded perfectly, AND it's early morn here in Asia. I'm rather drowsy

 

For how many yrs have they been doing a draft in these major sports? Hockey is only about 50 yrs, isn't it? So many of the various league's established stars pre-date the draft system, these %'s are likely misleading.

 

But one other point is driven home, that most fans are seemingly all coming around to. Development is perhaps on par(importance) with draft slot.

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36 minutes ago, Harvey Spector said:

There are 268 PLAYERS in the NHL Hall of Fame so that number is correct.  There are 105 BUILDERS, which includes coaches, managers, owners, etc.  And there are 16 referees/linesmen...

 

 

Hmmm when I read into it I didnt read that correctly then, I thought the builders where included into the total number. Thanks for clearing that up. 

 

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38 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

lol, in order?

 

Well, in fairness it may not have been worded perfectly, AND it's early morn here in Asia. I'm rather drowsy

 

For how many yrs have they been doing a draft in these major sports? Hockey is only about 50 yrs, isn't it? So many of the various league's established stars pre-date the draft system, these %'s are likely misleading.

 

But one other point is driven home, that most fans are seemingly all coming around to. Development is perhaps on par(importance) with draft slot.

 

 

Hockey was established in 43 

 

MLB was 36

 

NFL was 62

 

NBA looks like it was 59

 

 

 yes its true that a high number of the players in the hall of fame weren't even drafted, gretzky himself included.

 

It's funny that baseball has had the HOF for the longest and just had their first number one overall make it in. 

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1 minute ago, kylecanuck said:

 

 

Hockey was established in 43 

 

MLB was 36

 

NFL was 62

 

NBA looks like it was 59

 

 

 yes its true that a high number of the players in the hall of fame weren't even drafted, gretzky himself included.

 

It's funny that baseball has had the HOF for the longest and just had their first number one overall make it in. 

With baseball, it's prob tough to project with 17 yr olds, their maximum potential in standing around, scratchin' their ar*e, & spitting brown juice all over the premises. Takes a keen eye!

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10 minutes ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

With baseball, it's prob tough to project with 17 yr olds, their maximum potential in standing around, scratchin' their ar*e, & spitting brown juice all over the premises. Takes a keen eye!

 

 

Very true, it's hard to gauge talent when you spend most the time lolygagging around all day! 

 

I actually played some fairly competitive baseball and it's some intense training and hard workouts. Unless you absolutely shine at a minimum one thing in baseball, its rough. 

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I think even with the advent of "improved" scouting you're not bound to get even a decent player, much less a Hall of Fame player (just ask Edmonton about Yak).  

That being said, you're more than likely (unless you screw it up like Edmonton) to get a decent player (McDavid, Ekblad, Mackinnon, Nuge, Hall, Tavares, Stamkos, Kane, Johnson, Crosby, Ovie, Fleury, Nash, Kovalchuk, Lecavalier, Thornton, Jovo, Hamrlik, Lindros, Nolan, Sundin, Modano, Turgeon are some of the solid to star players you can get, of course with the likes of Daigle, Berard, Phillips, Stefan, DiPietro and Yak mixed in).  

Then again, you can't pan out how a guy will develop either, you can only roughly project, whereas Hall of Fame guys are named usually after their careers are over, so as long as a 7th rounder makes the league he can have a chance of making it (just ask Lucky Luc), and it's easier to make the H.O.F. when you just need to look back on a career vs. projecting how well 1st overall guys do in their career. 

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4 minutes ago, Crackers said:

That's an interesting stat, but your math on the percentages is off. Its not .02%, but 2% of the nhl hall of fame that's 1st overall picks. Not quite as impressive.

 

Well if you know how to actually do math it's probably all wrong.... Hahaha

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2 hours ago, Harvey Spector said:

There are currently 268 players in the NHL Hall of Fame. Of those 268 players, only 7 of them were first overall draft picks. Pretty self explanatory. 

Ah. It wasn't presented in a particularly clear way.

 

The other percentage people would be then thinking of is 7/53 which is 13.2% of 1st overall picks making it to the HHOF. That said, the draft was very different for the first 5 or so years and even after that, general accuracy was pretty shoddy until the 21st century.

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that is also because recently team have looked outside the box for players that will play good.So many options are included into this and for one most other leagues get players from 2 to 3 places and the NHL gets players from many others!!!

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Honestly thought about hacking a MLB teams scouting sheet and just adding my name in there so I would get drafted.  Not like they would know the difference:

 

Mac, Tre 

Vancouver, Canada

6'0 195lbs.  Throws L

Pos: SP

Pitches : 2FB, 4FB, SL, CB, CH

Velocity: 88-97mph

Player Comparable : Clayton Kershaw


Tell me you wouldn't take a chance on me in like the 13th round.  Then have my agent(which would just be me in a different voice) demand a contract before I make any spring training appearances.  MLB teams have so many players under contract I am sure this is foolproof.

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