For Draftists/TankNation Only: What's a Realistic Well-Thought Out Plan for Next Few Years?

[Bruce Boudreau]

7 hours ago, westvandude said:

This is only for those who consider themselves fans of tanking for high drafts (if this is not you, please don't waste your own time and ours with lame one liners)

 

I love reading well-thought out analysis... and considering the Canucks' rough start and all the predictions of where we are to end up this season, I wanna see what you guys think of a good plan for the next few years considering our needs and the prospects coming up that we could draft from, and potential realistic trades.

 

Here's a link to next draft's top prospects to aim for: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/sportsnets-2017-nhl-draft-prospect-rankings-october-jeff-marek/

 

Looks like the top 4 are C and D, which arguably not what we'll need for our future top lines. And realistically, it's hard to aim that high anyways. 5 to 7 are RW and LW, which is a good place to aim for. 

 

So basically, please tell us if you have a well-thought out plan that includes:

- Realistic assumptions (so no when we finish last and get #1 pick...)

- Comprehensive analysis (includes drafts, trades and signings)

- Assumption that we are going to be bad for next 2 seasons and finish bottom 5-10

 

Thanks!

Aquaman is that you?

 

Getting a little desperate, are we not Francesco? 

 

Asking a board full of random posters with different levels of craziness to think of a well thought out 5 year plan?

[wai_lai416]

realistically there's no plan.. you just pick whoever you think may best fill your need.. this is a weak draft.. if you end up with a good player that's like winning a lottery already.. there's prolly nolan patrick as the consensus #1.. and then anyone can be 2-10.. they don't need to tear it down rebuild as they are already bad enough at the current stage offensively.. heading into free agency they need to stop trying to sign players in the late 20s/early 30s to any win now contracts.. let the sedins walk/retire end up 2018 there's really no reason to bring them back into a rebuild even if they want to be here or not.. evaluate a year from now and see where bo/baer/virt is at with their progress if any and decide from there.

[JustABandwagoner]

4 hours ago, lmm said:

I look at this team as separable into 4 groups

1/ Untradable

2/ Untouchable

3/ Tradable

4/ Trade em if you can- why bother

 

Let  me say that no-one is really untouchable, but there are some players that if traded would require "winning the trade" to make it useful.

 

Untradable: Hank, Dank, Eriksson, Edler

Untouchable: Bo, Stetcher, Hutton, Virtanen, Tryankin, Gudbranson, Boesser, Demko

Tradable: Sutter, Tanev, Hansen, Sbisa(maybe) Markstrom, Miller, Burrows 

Trade em: Larsen, Sven, Granlund, Dorsett, Skille, Gaunce

 

Some players blur from one list to another, like Sbisa and Burrows might switsh with Granny and  Dorsett while Gaunce might be untouchable because his return is less than his usefulness.

 If you can the untradable do it, I just do not think it possible.

 

The untouchables are usefull now and could become more useful in the future.

The tradable players should be traded, or at least 4-5 of them should be traded for useful picks or prospects. Sbisa, Miller and Burrows are likely tradable at the deadline, while Sutter, Tanev and Hansen could go sooner for useful pieces.

The Trade em guys are likely throw-ins on other deals .

 

As money comes off the books it should be unspent in free agency and used for RFAs or garbage contracts with valuable enticements.

Horde cap and horde picks.

Shed cap with every trade unless scavenging from capstrapped teams.

Use the waiver wire and low cost UFAs to fill spots for 3 years or so.

No more Eriksson, Dorsett, Sbisa deals. No NTCs, NMCs, NHL only deals

 

roster in 2 years

Virt/2017 pick  Bo Boes

Prospect Prospect Loui

Sutter piece Hansen piece Tanev piece

Monster Gaunce Dorsett (because it turns out we couldn't trade/ waive/ Expose)

 

Hutton Gud

Try Stetch

Prospect Juolevi

Edler

 

Demko

Mark/ ???

 

I have to say that Virtanen is touchable at the right deal. Hes the young guy im willing to ship out for a good hockey trade 

[Tystick]

OP, I'm no expert but from what I see so far in our defenseman prospects, we really don't need to worry about drafting another defenseman this year.

 

Gudbranson and Hutton will be a part of the next cup run (barring any major change in their performance), Setcher looks like he'll be on the team as soon as we make room, Subban looks like he's ready to push for a spot next year; Juolevi could do the same.

 

IMO Sbisa, Larsen, and one of Tanev/Edler will be gone within a year or two. Tryamkin really needs to make a push (within the next couple years) or he's going to be the odd man out. His physical presence needs to be dominant enough to overshadow his lack of production.

 

 

So all of that said, I believe we need to draft our franchise center this year. We don't need to necessarily tank; Bennings drafting skills are very good.

 

You mentioned wingers as a need. I disagree. Erikson or Hansen, Boeser, Virtanen and Sutter will all be a part of our next run. So the right side is covered. Left side will involve Daniel, Granlund, Baerstchi, and Guance. A UFA is likely to replace Dank in the future.

 

Center, we have Horvat, Sutter, and Hank. Sutter is there for now, but he's not capable of replacing Hank and he's flexible at playing wing. Horvat is easily our next 2C. Leaving the need for a quality 1C this year. Benning will find him.

 

 

Okay done ranting.

[Guest]

10 hours ago, apollo said:

Tanking is for peasants.

And here I was thinking it was public transport that was for peasants!

 

You have me on board @apollo - that shall be our motto henceforth.

[bad alice french]

The only draft picks that become saviours are projected franchise/generation type players. If we are waiting for this team to be a true contender based on drafting, we'll be waiting forever. Someone posted earlier that this team is in no position to be having untouchables. I agree. Don't worry about tanking, it will happen naturally and that's part of the current growth process. Some teams are blessed with deep talent pools and current overloaded rosters. There are good trades to be made out there. It took close to 7 or 8 years before the twins dominated and during that time we had an offensive juggernaut to watch in the process. I'm a fan but I don't feel like waiting that long.

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, bad alice french said:

The only draft picks that become saviours are projected franchise/generation type players. If we are waiting for this team to be a true contender based on drafting, we'll be waiting forever. Someone posted earlier that this team is in no position to be having untouchables. I agree. Don't worry about tanking, it will happen naturally and that's part of the current growth process. Some teams are blessed with deep talent pools and current overloaded rosters. There are good trades to be made out there. It took close to 7 or 8 years before the twins dominated and during that time we had an offensive juggernaut to watch in the process. I'm a fan but I don't feel like waiting that long.

Us older folk waited 30 years to get the Twins.  

[appleboy]

25 minutes ago, bad alice french said:

The only draft picks that become saviours are projected franchise/generation type players. If we are waiting for this team to be a true contender based on drafting, we'll be waiting forever. Someone posted earlier that this team is in no position to be having untouchables. I agree. Don't worry about tanking, it will happen naturally and that's part of the current growth process. Some teams are blessed with deep talent pools and current overloaded rosters. There are good trades to be made out there. It took close to 7 or 8 years before the twins dominated and during that time we had an offensive juggernaut to watch in the process. I'm a fan but I don't feel like waiting that long.

Where the problem with trades comes in is when they move youth and picks for players who are in the latter part of their career. The reason teams pay so much for a UFA is that it does not hurt the future. If they could move an older player for a high end prospect then yes.

The Sedins are not good enough to be throwing away the future for a playoff run.

 

This is where we see if the owners are truly letting management make the moves. Linden has continually said that their is no quick fix.

 

Would you move Boeser, Juolevi, Demko, Horvat or our first round pick for a 28 to 30 year old.

 

[smokes]

Don't need to tank, just need to stop rushing our prospects.

[Blömqvist]

With the Sedins being 36 years old and having no one ready to take on the primary scoring duties it is essential that we find our next generation of top-line talent and fast. Bo Horvat may turn out to be a top line player, but that likely won't happen for at least another 2-3 years. Sutter is a nice piece, but likely won't break the 60 point level. Eriksson should improve his offense but he is a little older. We need someone developed enough to produce 60+ points now and can grow alongside Horvat and Boeser and Virtanen.

 

Trading Chris Tanev (with a little extra) for a similarly aged or slightly younger 1st line left winger or centre is our best option moving forward. This player acquired in a trade will be able to step in and produce right away and also grow with our future core.

 

Trading Tanev will be a blow to our defense this year, but we have two great prospects in the system in Juolevi and Stecher, two defensemen currently on the roster in which both have #2/3D potential in Hutton and Gudbranson, and a mammoth in Tryamkin. Our future defense looks good, but if a Tanev trade were to happen this year we would sink or swim with Tryamkin and Larsen playing in the top 6 defense group.

 

Some players to trade Tanev for would be Landeskog, Duchene, B. Schenn, Stepan.

 

Then sink or swim with our defense, and select a forward with our 1st round pick or package our two 2nd round picks along with our own 1st round pick for a higher pick or an RFA with a proven track record of scoring.

[spook007]

11 hours ago, Provost said:

Well clearly the only way to build a winner is to trade away all of our players who are over 25... then let the constant losing and lack of support destroy the development of the remaining youngsters, which ensures we are near the bottom of the league regularly.

We can then have as much as a 20% chance of picking at the top of the draft... and then we can pray that we win the lottery in a year where there is a really elite level, game changing type of player player available.... say maybe every 3 years.  Odds are if we can manage to stay at the bottom of the standings for 15 years we have a good shot at landing one of those guys!  If the odds are against us, maybe it is 30 years... but hey don't be pessimistic!

If everything works out well, in a decade we can be back to fighting for a playoff spot... right where we are now!

 

I believe in magic and refuse to accept we will turn out to be just like all the other teams who have floundered at the bottom of the standings for the past decade, piling up lottery picks and never winning a playoff series.

 

 

Thank you. Well said Provost

[TheGuardian_]

Trading to get better will be difficult this year because to the expansion to Vegas.

Team's have only so many players they can protect and dealing any asset with worth could be exposed to Vegas.

 

 

[Alflives]

2 hours ago, smokes said:

Don't need to tank, just need to stop rushing our prospects.

And stop trading picks and no trading prospects too.  Successfully Rebuilding teams don't do ant of those three, right?

[DSVII]

The time to really tank was the 2015/2016 seasons when there were generational talents on the board. Now with the lottery and the weaker 1st overall prospect it doesnt' matter any more if we tank or not.

 

That being said for a Rebuild, Nucks need to :

 

1.) Accumulate picks, no more trading futures for quick fixes - We all agree Benning is great at drafting. So it should be his top priority to accumulate drafts going forward. We are entering this draft class with only 5 picks. Toronto had more picks last year in the top 100 than we do in this one draft class. Draft picks aren't guarantees of success but the more you have the more probability you are giving yourself to hit on them. Especially if the draft pick is the top 100. 

 

Forget the 1st overall or where we finish, we need as much picks as possible to increase our prospect pool depth.

With McDavid in edmonton and Matthews in Toronto, Vancouver isn't going to win through raw talent,  our future teams will have to beat them with consistent skill and depth and we get that by adding more players through more picks.

 

2.) Trade upcoming UFA vets at deadline if we aren't re-signing them on the cheap - The club needs to actively manage assets and recoup value on expiring contracts. Losing out on Vrbata/Hamhuis was a huge blow to us, as there was no point in keeping them since we were eliminated soon after from playoff contention as well. Miller/Hansen/Edler should be on this list as their contracts hit their expiry date.

 

3.) Put the Kids in situations to succeed - just mini adjustments in the line up, but let the kids play, allow them to make mistakes and learn. On that note, reward them when they earn it, Why are we gifting power play minutes to larsen when stetcher or hutton were playing better, why aren't we giving Bo more offensive zone starts when he's our lead goal scorer?

 

 

Virts too, should be sent down to Utica if he's still struggling. We rushed him for the sake of marketing a future face it seems like....i don't think even Coho got this much canucks marketing exposure as a prospect.

 

4.) Smart trades and asset management- Management needs to make each deal with the mindset of buying low and selling high. Guds and Sutter were acquired at a premium, we have to start being more conscious of protecting our assets. 

 

The leafs signed Polak to a 1 year deal with the intention of flipping him for two 2nd rounders that year. Just today, Mike Condon (who was picked from the waiver wire) was traded to Ottawa for a 5th round pick. Those are great examples of moves that create value at little cost. Nucks need to get those kinds of deals working, it doesn't have to be a blockbuster, it can be a small move even for a 6th rounder, but we clearly need a shift in our approach to trades and have ones where we end up creating value to the org rather than giving it away

 

5.) Walk the walk on the meritocracy

Why are we sitting Tryamkin and Stetcher when Sbisa was basically gifted a spot? Why is Larsen still on the PP1 when we have Hutton? Why are we still giving the vets all of the offensive zone / pp opportunities when the kids are scoring more. I'm not saying completely bench the Sedins, but maybe shift a few more of the opportunities the kid's ways when they are on a roll. Show that no one's roll is gifted to them.

 

6.) Careful with the big signings

We aren't competing any time soon, the club should be wary of handing out big long term contracts (like 6+ mil) going forward unless it's a super star youngster you're signing. I say this because when we do compete, we want to have the cap space to sign our hopeful superstars like Horvat and Boeser. I also say be wary because of Luongo's cap recapture penalty, if he retires before it expires in 2022, we are on the hook for $8 mil in cap hit recapture.

[SamJamIam]

1. Tank and end this season with the worst record in the league
2. Luongo retires and then signs on with some other team
3. Vancouver loses 1st round pick as punishment for cap circumvention anyways

[JM_]

This is one where if the #1 lotto spot isn't won, I don't mind the idea of trading down a bit for a bottom 15-31 pick  if there's a decent prospect attached. Vegas gets the #4 spot no matter what if I'm not mistaken. It looks like after Patrick all the other guys will be sent down so in terms of immediate blending with Boeser thats probably the only option, and its a long shot. 

 

If JB does trade down he can pick the 3rd Strome brother for the LW spot (http://www.draftsite.com/nhl/player/matthew-strome/25953/)

 

(And I'm not a tank-ist). 

 

 

 

 

[GoBoGo53]

Nolan Patrick by all accounts isn't close to McDavid/Matthews. Not a good tank year.

[JM_]

1 hour ago, DSVII said:

 

2.) Trade upcoming UFA vets at deadline if we aren't re-signing them on the cheap - The club needs to actively manage assets and recoup value on expiring contracts. Losing out on Vrbata/Hamhuis was a huge blow to us, as there was no point in keeping them since we were eliminated soon after from playoff contention as well. Miller/Hansen/Edler should be on this list as their contracts hit their expiry date.

 

 

I just can't see this happening.

 

Miller didn't do well being traded to St. Louis and I can't see getting a big return, or really any interest for him at the TDL. Best hope here is for LA to want him with us retaining 1/2 his salary now. All the other contenders should be fine in goal, and Miller only gets moved if there's some kind of injury.

 

Edler will have 2 more years at 5 mil - that's not a guy that gets moved at the TDL.

 

Hansen.... maybe. We might not be able to protect him from Vegas but he's the kind of player you want to keep - big effort, small salary. 

 

Vrbata - who the heck was going to pick him up? He said himself he gave Benning a crap list so he wouldn't be moved! 

 

Hammer - same thing, Hammer gave 2 teams, Dallas passed. Just what was Benning supposed to do?

 

Don't set this year up for the same kind of disappointment, we won't be cashing in on picks this TDL. 

[smokes]

5 hours ago, Alflives said:

And stop trading picks and no trading prospects too.  Successfully Rebuilding teams don't do ant of those three, right?

The McCann trade I can deal with cause Gudbranson was worth it but the Forsling trade stings a bit still.

[Davathor]

On 01/11/2016 at 4:43 PM, apollo said:

I'm happy with picking Luke Martin 30th overall. 

Tanking is for peasants. This team is built to win.

 

Yeah they sure are doing an impressive job so far.

 

Who built them to win, Tim Allen?