[Article] How boring Canucks style could trick them into trade deadline mistakes

[LaBamba]

 

How boring Canucks style could trick them into trade deadline mistakes

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/measuring-pace-impact-canucks-trade-deadline-plans/

Dimitri FilipovicFebruary 7, 2017, 12:18 PM

While goals are fun to watch, high-scoring shootouts aren’t necessarily essential to have an exciting, viewer-friendly product. When the NHL is at its absolute best, it’s a free-flowing, back-and-forth track meet where outcome of the game is at the whim of a bouncing puck. 

As the NHL continues to emphasize and prioritize young, dynamic talent that keeps entering the league and thriving right away, it feels like those type of high-event contests are becoming a more regular occurrence. 

Unfortunately, not every team is so lucky to be blessed with an abundance of talent, nor are they willing to embrace that style of open-ended play. 

Let’s take a look at how fast or slow each team is playing this season, using the combined rate at which they’re taking and giving up shots during five-on-five play. Using this metric as a proxy for pace is probably the cleanest option we’ve got at the ready, but there’s one glaring caveat that needs to be accounted for first.  One of the byproducts of accounting for what’s happening at both ends of the ice equally, is that it becomes possible to distort the picture for certain teams. The Arizona Coyotes show up as one of the most fast-paced teams, but that may not necessarily be the case. 

If you take a closer look at their underlying distribution of shots, they’re being dragged up the rankings by how porous they are in their own zone. No one bleeds attempts against more frequently than the Coyotes, which inadvertently provides the illusion they’re playing fast when they’re more likely just playing poor hockey.

The million dollar follow-up question is: for a team like the Vancouver Canucks, is this really the most optimal brand of hockey for them to be playing? That likely depends on whose perspective you’re looking at it from. 

If you’re head coach Willie Desjardins, the answer seems like a resounding ‘yes.’ Whether it’s actually the result of a concerted effort on his part or just simply an unintended function of the way the roster has been constructed is a completely different discussion. But his job is to find a way to win as many games as possible, and theoretically by slowing the game to a screeching halt it increases their chances of doing so. 

If you look up and down their lineup objectively, there’s no escaping the unfortunate reality that Vancouver goes into most nights with a skill disadvantage relative to their opposition. One way to strategically combat that is to slow the game down and limit the number of events that occur. 

At least in the short-term, a smaller sample size of shots theoretically increases the likelihood of running hot on the positive end of shooting and shot percentage variance, with a couple of random puck bounces here or there (and not true talent) disproportionately determining who wins on any given night. For an inferior team, it seems like a reasonably sneaky way to pull out more victories than you may otherwise deserve.

While that style of play is technically keeping the Canucks hanging on in the Western Conference playoff race by the skin of their teeth (they’re only five points out of a wild card spot with one game in hand), if you peel back a layer you realize how paper thin their playoff resume is. 

(Chart shows winning percentages in one-goal games and two-plus goal games)

The Canucks have been winning, but they’ve been doing so in an ugly fashion. One of the primary reasons why they’ve been able to stay within striking distance of a playoff spot is because of how fortunate they’ve been in close games. 

While they’re third in the league in one-goal game winning percentage, they drop all the way down to 28th in games decided by two or more goals. That puts them in the neighbourhood of teams such as the Avalanche, Coyotes, and Devils, which is probably far more reflective of where they’re at as a team than are the actual standings. As a frame of reference, the top two Western Conference teams in two-plus goal game winning percentage are the Sharks and the Wild, who both showed this past week just how sizeable the gap between themselves and the Canucks really is. 

As Vancouver scratches and claws its way through games on a nightly basis, they’re incentivized to muck it up and play slow, boring hockey because it’s the only way they can really mask their flaws and win games. 

But at what cost?

Should this mirage endure for a while longer, there are potentially harmful big picture ramifications. 

The Canucks’ braintrust has said time and time again they have no interest in a full-scale teardown and rebuild. 

Instead, they seem to fancy themselves as a competitive team right now. Their big off-season moves reeked of a win-now mentality – trading three cheap, young assets for Erik Gudbranson and throwing big money at 31-year old Loui Eriksson.

How they handle the next couple of weeks leading up to the March 1 trade deadline will be awfully illuminating. While they’re hardly flush with tradeable pieces, you’d figure players like Jannik Hansen, Gudbranson, Ryan Miller, and even Alex Burrows would potentially be enticing to teams that are loading up for the playoffs. 

They’d do well to recoup any prospects or draft picks they can, but based on this management group’s recent track record that course seems unlikely. Last year at this time they stood pat, letting Radim Vrbata and Dan Hamhuis walk for nothing. With each day they hang around the playoff race, it becomes easy to see them taking the same approach this season. 

If they do, it would be a gross miscalculation. The more quickly they come to the realization that any success they’ve enjoyed this season is fool’s gold the better off they’ll be for it moving forward. 

It’s been tough to watch the Canucks play this season, but it’ll be even tougher to watch them delude themselves into thinking they’re better than they really are just because they’ve happened to be on the fortunate end of a few close wins. 

After all, that same unwillingness to assess what’s systemically wrong and makes changes accordingly is what’s led them to this undesirable middle ground spot in the first place – one where they’re not good enough to compete for the Stanley Cup, but not bad enough to fully bottom out. 

That’s the worst spot you can be as an organization in today’s NHL and that’s where the Vancouver Canucks find themselves right now.

 

Hey guys, don't blame the messenger. 

[Alflives]

Of course that is what we should be doing, but will we actually go ahead and properly rebuild?  I really don't think our owner will allow it.

[LaBamba]

If you leave the Canuck bubble. This is pretty much what people tell you when you reveal the fact you are a Canuck fan. While I was working in Alberta during this last stint I must have been told this half a dozen times.  

[Industrious1]

We are Calgary from 4 or 5 years ago.

 

Although I think we are ever so slightly trending in a better direction than they were.

[VanGnome]

All those years we laughed at the Flames for doing exactly this, and we're repeating the very same mistakes. Deluded management too close to see really just how bad the team is night in, night out, and a lot of that is due to the coaching personnel and their decisions.

This team as constructed minus a few pieces here and there ARE capable of playing a high up tempo game. We just need a coaching staff that can inspire confidence and make players believe they can make plays. Eriksson looks like a shell of his former self in the first year of a 6 year deal. That's BAD.

WD is coaching the talent out of this team, and it's pissing me off.

TL and JB's defiant insistence of their support for WD is beyond insanity.

We don't actually need to tear down and rebuild. We need to be coached properly and to play to our strengths... the youth we DO have NOW need to be given the reigns to be creative and have the slack in the leash in order to make, and learn from their mistakes.

WD's choking, slow and boring win at all costs has us effectively at .500 hockey. I don't see how actually being competitive with a competent offensive strategy could lose us many more games. WD is coaching himself out of this city by not endearing himself and his decisions to us the fans. It's a business, I get it. His job is to win games, I get it. But you know what they don't get? This is a business who's SOLE purpose is to ENTERTAIN FANS, so that money is spent and revenues generated and their salaries paid.

WD and the coaching staff are complacent and taking for granted that they're coaching where they are, while neglecting the sole aspect that keeps them in those jobs to begin with. Management similarly is hushing US the fans like misbehaving children saying "The adults are talking, go back to whatever unimportant thing it is you're trying to distract us with."

Worst of all, OWNERSHIP is driving this ship, and ignoring the fans at the same time. This $&!# doesn't flow up, it flows top down.

</rant>

[Nuxfanabroad]

More of the media troll-fest. They sure loved to slag pre-season, with their 65 pt bull$h*t

 

Our surprising young D has prob miffed them a bit. So this article, they revert to 'style points'.

 

Car

NJ

Buff etc...

 

Don't see these uninspiring teams getting 10% of our media-drivel, as they struggle through their own versions of bad contracts, trades & seasons.

Gonna just ignore this Eastern media-hate, going forward, methinks...

[JM_]

 

[Article] How boring Canucks articles could trick writers into thinking they are journalists 

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, VanGnome said:

All those years we laughed at the Flames for doing exactly this, and we're repeating the very same mistakes. Deluded management too close to see really just how bad the team is night in, night out, and a lot of that is due to the coaching personnel and their decisions.

This team as constructed minus a few pieces here and there ARE capable of playing a high up tempo game. We just need a coaching staff that can inspire confidence and make players believe they can make plays. Eriksson looks like a shell of his former self in the first year of a 6 year deal. That's BAD.

WD is coaching the talent out of this team, and it's pissing me off.

TL and JB's defiant insistence of their support for WD is beyond insanity.

We don't actually need to tear down and rebuild. We need to be coached properly and to play to our strengths... the youth we DO have NOW need to be given the reigns to be creative and have the slack in the leash in order to make, and learn from their mistakes.

WD's choking, slow and boring win at all costs has us effectively at .500 hockey. I don't see how actually being competitive with a competent offensive strategy could lose us many more games. WD is coaching himself out of this city by not endearing himself and his decisions to us the fans. It's a business, I get it. His job is to win games, I get it. But you know what they don't get? This is a business who's SOLE purpose is to ENTERTAIN FANS, so that money is spent and revenues generated and their salaries paid.

WD and the coaching staff are complacent and taking for granted that they're coaching where they are, while neglecting the sole aspect that keeps them in those jobs to begin with. Management similarly is hushing US the fans like misbehaving children saying "The adults are talking, go back to whatever unimportant thing it is you're trying to distract us with."

Worst of all, OWNERSHIP is driving this ship, and ignoring the fans at the same time. This $&!# doesn't flow up, it flows top down.

</rant>

We are headed (currently in actually) to many seasons of crappy, boring hockey.  I feel for Bo, who's talents are going to be wasted.  

[HerrDrFunk]

As far as the media is concerned, the Canucks are screwed either way. They thought we would be an absolute bottom feeder this year so when that didn't pan out, and we overachieved for awhile, they shifted the narrative to say we're hurting our future instead. 

[VanGnome]

Just now, Alflives said:

We are headed (currently in actually) to many seasons of crappy, boring hockey.  I feel for Bo, who's talents are going to be wasted.  

My only two wishes for Christmas 2017 are as follows:

1. Trump is impeached
2. The team is sold and ownership cleans house, hiring competent hockey people; or at very least give TL & JB the freedom to actually run the team as they say fit, not under mandate of fear of losing their jobs if they don't play ball and capitulate to the owners egotistical demands (squeeze blood from a stone).

[Johnny Shotgun]

3 minutes ago, Industrious1 said:

We are Calgary from 4 or 5 years ago.

 

Although I think we are every so slightly trending in a better direction than they were.

Correct. 

However the Vancouver organization has a poor draft record going back decades. 

[Hectic]

24 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Of course that is what we should be doing, but will we actually go ahead and properly rebuild?  I really don't think our owner will allow it.

Stop blaming the owner with no evidence other than Botchford and other reporters making rumours!!!!!

[Nuxfanabroad]

Take a team like Philly. Whose owner(& Comcast) have likely long been a league-darling. How much media-hate do THEY receive?

 

- Traded Bobro for tape rolls(& he wins Vezina)

- End up pi$$*ng away 30 MILLION, so Bryz can drink lattes in Siberia

Imagine the uproar if our GM's treated their crease with such impulsive carelessness? Look what they wrote about MG, despite landing Bo & Markstrom?

- Hide Pronger's body in the desert(would we ever get such options with regrettable contracts?!)

 

...So tired of the disproportionate media-trolling. FAKENEWS indeed. Sports journos are mostly lackey-wh*res. If they don't comply, they don't get privileged access.

[JM_]

15 minutes ago, Alflives said:

 I feel for Bo, who's talents are going to be wasted.  

WTF Alf? This is what 1/2 our lineup could very easily end up looking like next year (ages next season). That sure looks like a youth movement to me. And thats not couting a potential high draft pick, college free agent,  or another trade. You think Bo's "wasted" when the rebuild is more than 1/2 the team next year?

 

Baer (25)

Boeser (20)

Boucher (23)

Gaunce (23)

Granlund (24)

Horvat (22)

Virtanen (21)

Gudbranson (25)

Hutton (23)

Stecher (23)

Tryamkin (23)

Juolevi (20)

 

[IBatch]

TO likely invented yet another analytic that claims to show how fast a game is...As they are way at the top.

 

Can't blame the coach for playing to his strength or in this example the lack thereof.

These stats are extremely subjective and don't really show a broad stroke pin point accurate picture of anything.  Makes for entertaining discussion but I think it should be dumbed down a whole lot to simple eye tests.

Miller and Markstrom have given the team an extra ten points between them.

The Sedins are a shadow of their prime but still are given the toughest opposition.  

Our defense lacks the ability to score despite doing an admirable job of keeping the puck out of the net.

L.Erricson is not telling yet.

We've got three good prospects and two others that may or may not work out...Time will tell if any of them become stars.

Horvat is our best player most nights except for Miller.

We won't be a bubble team for long we are as the article points out.. Hanging by the skin of our teeth.  Next season we will enter the water zone and the losing will give us two or three great picks to help the power change and a new core emerges.

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, Hectic said:

Stop blaming the owner with no evidence other than Botchford and other reporters making rumours!!!!!

Well, aren't Botchford, Dregger, Labrune, Mackenzie, Ferraro, and others evidence by their numbers?  Aqualini owns the team, and if he wants a certain direction that's his prerogative.  

[Dekey Pete]

"Last year at this time they stood pat, letting Radim Vrbata and Dan Hamhuis walk for nothing"

 

No.  Vrbata handcuffed the team, he even made this quote  “If I wanted to get traded, I would have been traded.”

 

And a Hamhuis trade was in the works, but for whatever reason Dallas came back at JB with a lowball offer, JB stood pat and said no to that crap, and the rest is history.

 

It's obviously hard to know exactly what went down in either situation, but these articles make it seem like Jim just sat on his hands while the trade deadline went by last year.  I find that incredibly hard to believe.

[Johnny Shotgun]

3 minutes ago, Alflives said:

TL and JB's defiant insistence of their support for WD is beyond insanity.

Not to knock Linden as he was a great Canuck as a player, I think he is just too loyal/sentimental to those he has encountered in the past.... not hard nosed enough to make those tough decisions that sometimes have to be made.  JB well he probably is feeling uneasy himself and doesn't want to rock the boat...having Willie under the spotlight keeps him out of the glare.

[JM_]

1 minute ago, The Sedge said:

"Last year at this time they stood pat, letting Radim Vrbata and Dan Hamhuis walk for nothing"

 

No.  Vrbata handcuffed the team, he even made this quote  “If I wanted to get traded, I would have been traded.”

 

And a Hamhuis trade was in the works, but for whatever reason Dallas came back at JB with a lowball offer, JB stood pat and said no to that crap, and the rest is history.

 

It's obviously hard to know exactly what went down in either situation, but these articles make it seem like Jim just sat on his hands while the trade deadline went by last year.  I find that incredibly hard to believe.

This story is the hockey equivalent of herpes. Vrbata scuttled any good deal, Hammer dragged his feet. End of story.

 

No one talks about the mistake Dallas made in picking up Russel over Hamhuis, it was a dumb move on their part that probably cost them a round in the playoffs. 

 

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, S'all Good Man said:

WTF Alf? This is what 1/2 our lineup could very easily end up looking like next year (ages next season). That sure looks like a youth movement to me. And thats not couting a potential high draft pick or another trade. You think Bo's "wasted" when the rebuild is more than 1/2 the team next year?

 

Baer (25)

Boeser (20)

Boucher (23)

Gaunce (23)

Granlund (24)

Horvat (22)

Gudbranson (25)

Hutton (23)

Stecher (23)

Tryamkin (23)

Juolevi (20)

 

Other than Bo, who on your list stands out as another elite player?  I absolutely agree that JB is turning over the roster.  I just don't see the end product (other than Bo) as being any better than just average.  I have high hopes for Juiolevvi, Boeser, Lockwood, and Gaudette.  But it's only hopeful thinking.  Those guys have yet to show at the NHL level.  We need elite young guys to go along with Bo, don't we?