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Baertschi & Granlund expectations


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They would be 3rd liners on most Cup contending teams. Not much size or physicality but decent defensively, bit of offensive skill and can pot 20 goals. 

 

I think 20 goals and 50 points for a few seasons are reasonable expectations. If they played with real stars in the league they could even pop 30 goals 60 points but that's unlikely to happen. Might have one 30 goal season in their prime in a couple years time but I'd be happy with 20G 50P for a few seasons and decent defence.

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I think Baer can get upwards of 55 points. He was on pace this season (with injuries) high 40's in points? 

I don't think 50-55 points is out of the question. On a career high, he might be able to hit 60 points. 

 

As for Granlund. I think next season, he takes another step. 40 points isn't out of the question for him in his second full season. 

 

I can see Bo hitting 60 points next season. 

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I think some folks need to look at scoring around the NHL. Scoring 20 goals is a massive feat now reserved for top six players. Horvat has potted as many goals as Eichel, Kesler and Krejci. Granlund is tied with Barkov and leads Nylander and Toews. Sven is tied with Voracek, Duchene, O'Reilly, Hall, Marner, and Bergeron. The list only continues on below them as a who's who of the NHL.

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50 minutes ago, SamJamIam said:

I think some folks need to look at scoring around the NHL. Scoring 20 goals is a massive feat now reserved for top six players. Horvat has potted as many goals as Eichel, Kesler and Krejci. Granlund is tied with Barkov and leads Nylander and Toews. Sven is tied with Voracek, Duchene, O'Reilly, Hall, Marner, and Bergeron. The list only continues on below them as a who's who of the NHL.

That is a good point. If there are 120 top six forwards in the league, it is easy to see where Baer and Granny rank. 

Right now Baer is tied for 88th in goals and Granlund is tied 70. Looking at points per game Baertschi is at 132 (minimum 40 games played). However centres pick up a lot more assists. Looking at left wingers, Baertschi is at 36. So yes, he is a pretty good 2nd line player.

The problem is that our first line left winger is below Baertschi on the same chart.

1. If the Sedins had their typical 70 point season, and Eriksson scored 30 the team would be in a much better position (like the first year with Vrbata)
2. We are missing an entire top pairing when it comes to points. We have no Canuck defenseman in the top 60 for points per game. 
 

This highlights two critical errors from our offseason. Our top 6 at the very least had a couple of duos that work well: Henrik & Daniel and Baertschi & Horvat. I can't remember which coach (AV?) said you need to find two players who can play well together. We had that - finding that 3rd permanent fixture is much more difficult. 

The team also went out and paid a pretty penny (and cap space) for Gudbranson. Because of this, he was really marketed more in the top 3 class of the team with Edler/Tanev vs the bottom 3 (the gap between Gudbranson and Hutton appearing large). Unfortunately, Gudbranson falls more into the 4-6. He sucked this year, but I still think he is a decent #4. I like his physicality - but with Sbisa, Tryamkin, Pedan we aren't exactly starved for a big tough dman or someone who can shut down opponents. What we severely lacked is someone who can put up offence. 

 

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Data from Corsica.  There are 326 Fs with more than 500 minutes at 5v5 (ranges from 36 games to 72 games) - doesn't include extra attacker, empty nets, special teams etc.   

 

Granlund and Baer lead the team in 5v5 goals with 15 - 1 ahead of Horvat.  The average number of 5v5 goals is 9 with the highest being 25. Average number of points at 5v5 is 21 with the maximum being 50.  Scoring 15 goals in 60 games is not the same as scoring 15 goals in only 40 games - so also G/GP and P/GP to account for games missed.

 

Ranking among 326 Fs with at least 500 minutes at 5v5:

 

                      G        G/GP       G60             P          P/GP          P60 

Henrik           133         171        219             86         119          183    

Daniel            158        212         238           114         152          198

Granlund         33          37           43            128        156          184

Horvat             39          54           64              45          64            65

Baer                33          19           20              99          66            61

 

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I asked this before and I ask it know, why aren't the three young top scorers on the same line?

Bart, Bo and Granny are the hypothecical first line of this team, I want to see what they can bring for the future.

Play them together, W.D., and do it know.

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54 minutes ago, mll said:

Data from Corsica.  There are 326 Fs with more than 500 minutes at 5v5 (ranges from 36 games to 72 games) - doesn't include extra attacker, empty nets, special teams etc.   

 

Granlund and Baer lead the team in 5v5 goals with 15 - 1 ahead of Horvat.  The average number of 5v5 goals is 9 with the highest being 25. Average number of points at 5v5 is 21 with the maximum being 50.  Scoring 15 goals in 60 games is not the same as scoring 15 goals in only 40 games - so also G/GP and P/GP to account for games missed.

 

Ranking among 326 Fs with at least 500 minutes at 5v5:

 

                      G        G/GP       G60             P          P/GP          P60 

Henrik           133         171        219             86         119          183    

Daniel            158        212         238           114         152          198

Granlund         33          37           43            128        156          184

Horvat             39          54           64              45          64            65

Baer                33          19           20              99          66            61

 

Good to see. Hopefully they can up there game next year!

 

What does concern me is that Bo/Bae/Gran all have shooting percentages higher than 15% this year. Which may crater them if they regreys.  So I'd like to see them continue the production going into next season

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6 hours ago, canucklehead44 said:

That is a good point. If there are 120 top six forwards in the league, it is easy to see where Baer and Granny rank. 

Right now Baer is tied for 88th in goals and Granlund is tied 70. Looking at points per game Baertschi is at 132 (minimum 40 games played). However centres pick up a lot more assists. Looking at left wingers, Baertschi is at 36. So yes, he is a pretty good 2nd line player.

The problem is that our first line left winger is below Baertschi on the same chart.

1. If the Sedins had their typical 70 point season, and Eriksson scored 30 the team would be in a much better position (like the first year with Vrbata)
2. We are missing an entire top pairing when it comes to points. We have no Canuck defenseman in the top 60 for points per game. 
 

This highlights two critical errors from our offseason. Our top 6 at the very least had a couple of duos that work well: Henrik & Daniel and Baertschi & Horvat. I can't remember which coach (AV?) said you need to find two players who can play well together. We had that - finding that 3rd permanent fixture is much more difficult. 

The team also went out and paid a pretty penny (and cap space) for Gudbranson. Because of this, he was really marketed more in the top 3 class of the team with Edler/Tanev vs the bottom 3 (the gap between Gudbranson and Hutton appearing large). Unfortunately, Gudbranson falls more into the 4-6. He sucked this year, but I still think he is a decent #4. I like his physicality - but with Sbisa, Tryamkin, Pedan we aren't exactly starved for a big tough dman or someone who can shut down opponents. What we severely lacked is someone who can put up offence. 

 

Exactly this. Baer, Granlund and Horvat aren't the problem.  It's that there aren't more players like this on the Canucks (along with defensive contributors, although whether that is due to WD's systems is anyone's guess).

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On 17.3.2017 at 10:59 PM, luckylager said:

The way they've both played this year is promising. There's no reason to think they won't develop further into effective top 6 players, ideally 2nd liners though. because neither have that "it factor" or flair that elite first line wingers have.

 

The elite winger is what we're all hoping for, not to diminish Baer or Granny, they're just not those guys. They're fricken awesome hockey players though, and I like 'em.

A little too early to quote me on it, but Granlund in my mind could be our next 35-40 goal scorer. He has the tools to do it. I'd like to see him with the Sedin's for the rest of the year and next year as well. Even if they are slowing down, they still have the eye for it and could set him up big time if they can find some permanent chemistry.

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if they get to Alex Burrows level, we will all be happy.  25-35 goals for their prime years.  50-70 points.  

 

more we would be ecstatic.  You never know with younger players they might be superstars - we know a few years from now if they get given a chance.

 

chances are one of them might make it, the other will dwindle...

 

but they need that playmaking center to work some magic.   Bo is awesome, but we need that super talented player to fill the void since HS has left (well, he hasn't left yet, but in reality he left sometime last year imho).  WITH that player they can be like Burrows.  Without they will be what Burrows would have been without playing with the Sedins...  2/3rd line players.  And Bo needs superstar wingers to really shine... he doesn't have the magic that HS had - he is more like a minor version of Toews... never get to a point / game (shortened season 2012-13 everyone scored well, so its an exception), but super valuable.  We need a Kane to go along with him, and maybe a Hossa too.  then we are talking.  

 

lots of young players, lots of reasons for hope.  I wouldn't mind a first overall pick in the next 2/3 years.  By year 4 I'll bet we start making the playoffs for sure, so a 1st overall would really really really really help, as we won't be close to getting a 1st overall pick again for a while.

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I see Baertschi as our LW1 and Granlund as our LW2 going forward for 2-4 more years.  Neither will be elite but solid 40-60 point players.  Mix in an improving Horvat along with Boeser and Virtanen hopefully developing and we'll be looking good.  Just need a good offensive center to complement Horvat.

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Forwards are in their prime at 24-27 years old.  So they're probably entering their prime and we're seeing what they're capable of.  I think it's pretty realistic to think both of them can score 15-25 goals/year for the next few years, assuming they're given 1st/2nd line roles. 

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15 hours ago, SamJamIam said:

I think some folks need to look at scoring around the NHL. Scoring 20 goals is a massive feat now reserved for top six players. Horvat has potted as many goals as Eichel, Kesler and Krejci. Granlund is tied with Barkov and leads Nylander and Toews. Sven is tied with Voracek, Duchene, O'Reilly, Hall, Marner, and Bergeron. The list only continues on below them as a who's who of the NHL.

Barkov has played 14 less games and has only scored 1 less goal than Granlund... Toews has played 7 less games and is 2 goals behind...

 

Eichel has the same goals scored as Horvat in 19 fewer games...

 

And then there's the part where you compare them with playmakers (Voracek, Marner). I don't think your premise is fair.

 

 

I think Sven and Granny are in the echelon of players like Johansson, Backlund and Brassard - good enough to be second liners (maybe middle six on a contending team) but not the kinds of players who put us over the top. I actually think our cup contention window is realistically more than 4 years away and we haven't yet drafted/signed most of our core. Players like Baer and Granlund will either be the complimentary veteran presence to our core or will only be here to help us transition. 

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I really don't think we should be projecting the ceiling of a player after their first NHL season. I think they will be a part of the next core, they are too valuable to trade right now for what they bring. I love them both and forwards don't hit their peak until 28, we've got 4-5 years of improvement and development. You just never know when someone is going to shatter their ceiling (as we've seen with Bo going from 2nd line center to 1st line center consensus) and I'd like to see where they both top out at. As an example Markus' older brother had 3 seasons with Minnesota before he broke out. It takes time to get comfortable and create chemistry. Talk to me in 2-3 years and then we can get an idea of where their ceiling is.

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15 hours ago, guntrix said:

Barkov has played 14 less games and has only scored 1 less goal than Granlund... Toews has played 7 less games and is 2 goals behind...

 

Eichel has the same goals scored as Horvat in 19 fewer games...

 

And then there's the part where you compare them with playmakers (Voracek, Marner). I don't think your premise is fair.

 

 

I think Sven and Granny are in the echelon of players like Johansson, Backlund and Brassard - good enough to be second liners (maybe middle six on a contending team) but not the kinds of players who put us over the top. I actually think our cup contention window is realistically more than 4 years away and we haven't yet drafted/signed most of our core. Players like Baer and Granlund will either be the complimentary veteran presence to our core or will only be here to help us transition. 

Baer has been out a number of games. Many of the players with higher scoring are in the east, have more high skill guys on their lines to create chances with and get more TOI.  Talk about looking for the bad and ignoring the good.

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3 hours ago, SamJamIam said:

Baer has been out a number of games. Many of the players with higher scoring are in the east, have more high skill guys on their lines to create chances with and get more TOI.  Talk about looking for the bad and ignoring the good.

Guys like Eichel, Barkov, Toews, etc. are superstars though. You're comparing Granny and Baer to elite NHL players when they're not quite at that level.

 

I like the positivity but I think we're getting ahead of ourselves. 

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2 minutes ago, guntrix said:

Guys like Eichel, Barkov, Toews, etc. are superstars though. You're comparing Granny and Baer to elite NHL players when they're not quite at that level.

 

I like the positivity but I think we're getting ahead of ourselves. 

Eichel and Barkov in the same league of star with Toews?  Wow!  I like those two young guys, especially Eichel, but I don't know about either being in Toews league.  

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Pittsburgh (highest scoring team east) top 6 forward production.....

Crosby 65gp 80pts (1.23 ppg)

Malkin 62gp 72pts (1.16 ppg)

Kessel 71gp 63pts (.89 ppg)

Sheary 51gp 47pts (.92 ppg)

Hornqvist 60gp 39pts (.65 ppg)

Bonino 70gp 30pts (.43 ppg)

 

Minnesota (highest scoring team west) top 6 production....

Granlund 71gp 66pts (.93 ppg)

Staal 71gp 54pts (.76 ppg)

Koivu 70gp 53pt (.76 ppg)

Niederreiter 71gp 48pts (.68 ppg)

Coyle 71gp 48pts (.68 ppg)

Zucker 71gp 46pts (.65 ppg)

 

That's the highest scoring teams in the east and west divisions.

 

 

Granlund 69gp 32pts (.46 ppg)

Baertschi 59gp 32pts (.54 ppg)

 

 

Draw your own conclusions.

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