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Matt_T83

[Discussion] We should trade to draft Gabriel Vilardi

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Posted (edited)

I was looking at the upcoming NHL draft, and I do believe we should trade to acquire another top 5 1st round pick. Specifically, we should target Gabriel Vilardi. Why, you might ask? He's got the telltale signs of recent improvement and overcoming adversity.

 

In 2014-2015 he was only playing in Midget AAA, with decent stats: 21G 18A in 21 games. Then he got into the OHL in 2015-2016 and had a bit of a rough year, with 62 games, 17G 21A and a -7 rating. But he managed to overcome this has 29G 32A in 49 games played with a  +13 rating in 2016-2017. And it's not like this guy is on a dynamite team; the Windsor Spitfires are 5th in their OHL conference. 

 

This guy got into the OHL a full year later than most top 5 draft picks, and had a rough 1st OHL year, and has now moved into the consensus #4 overall draft spot. To me this guy has late bloomer written all over him, and he's 6'2 192 pounds now. I can see this guy being NHL ready at 20 years old and making an immediate impact.

Edited by Matt_T83
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Posted (edited)

1 minute ago, Tigs said:

We should move up to draft Hischier.

 

 

 

The reason I suggest Vilardi is the price will lower. The prices for the #1-2 spots will be too high. I think we could get the #4 overall spot cheaper, and I believe Vilardi will be as good or better than either Patrick or Hischier.

Edited by Matt_T83
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We should move down to draft Middlestadt. Ha!  In before a mod does the "tag" post!  Happy Alf:)

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2 minutes ago, Matt_T83 said:

 

The reason I suggest Vilardi is the price will lower. The prices for the #1-2 spots will be too high. I think we could get the #4 overall spot cheaper, and I believe Vilardi will be as good or better than either Patrick or Hischier.

You're so wrong in my opinion, but I'm sure we'll find out in a few years. ;)

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Just now, Alflives said:

We should move down to draft Middlestadt. Ha!  In before a mod does the "tag" post!  Happy Alf:)

My guess is we already draft 5th, and Middlestadt is ranked 5th overall. We are currently 4th last in the league, and will probably finish around #3-4 worst record. Knowing how the NHL hates the Canucks, one or two teams will leapfrog us and we'll draft 5th overall.

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Just now, Tigs said:

You're so wrong in my opinion, but I'm sure we'll find out in a few years. ;)

Why do you think I'm wrong, out of curiosity? I have a PhD and I'm working on statistical models for the NHL draft, and late bloomers have a much better chance of transitioning to the NHL. 

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Posted (edited)

8 minutes ago, Matt_T83 said:

Why do you think I'm wrong, out of curiosity? I have a PhD and I'm working on statistical models for the NHL draft, and late bloomers have a much better chance of transitioning to the NHL. 

I hope you're using proper methods, not that junk we see from guys like Yost. 

Edited by S'all Good Man
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IMO if we can't draft Hischier then we should go for Liljegren and then trade some of our veteran D depth for a C prospect. 

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8 minutes ago, Derp... said:

Jason Robertson (W) has similar numbers to Vilardi and will be a second rounder most likely. Rather just take him at 33-34 than make a trade to acquire Vilardi

Robertson: http://prospect-stats.com/OHL/2016/player/7125/

Vilardi: http://prospect-stats.com/OHL/2016/player/7156/

 

 

They do have similar numbers, but there's other things to consider. For example, high calibre centers are just worth more than high calibre LW. One of the biggest factors NHL teams are looking for now is size down the middle. Vilardi has the size down the middle. He could easily be a #1 or #2 center on an NHL team. To me the only question are the prices: how much would it cost to acquire an extra first round pick to draft him? 

 

I agree that Jason Roberston is undervalued being outside the top 30. I'd put him in the top 20 easily. However, another team will pick him in the first round I'm sure. We won't get him at #33-34.

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Posted (edited)

29 minutes ago, S'all Good Man said:

I hope you're using proper methods, not that junk we see from guys like Yost. 

There are no 'proper methods'. However, I'm doing a lot of leave half out models where I take the draft years from say 2000-2011 and pick even numbered years to build models on. I'll rank prospects in all draft years based on how they turned out. Then I look at all possible different combinations and weights of aggregate statistics, picking the best settings that recapitulate the observed order. Then I apply that combination/weighting of aggregate statistics to the odd year drafts and see how well I predict those rankings. If you don't do that, you risk overfitting your model to the data.

 

The metrics you can use are almost endless. And because these are prospects, you need to look at development factors as well. How good were the players line mates? We all know that Jonathan Drouin was boosted playing with MacKinnon in Junior. Drouin has had an 'okay' year with the Lightning, but he's far from living up to a top 5 1st round draft pick. How good is a goalie if he's playing in front of the best defense in the CHL? What about a goalie playing in front of the worst defense in the CHL? 

 

Teasing apart the players individual contributions and development trojectories are almost more important than looking at their actual performance by any standard metrics. I'm trying to make predictions right now on current drafts, and see how they work out. We'll see..

 

 

Edited by Matt_T83
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54 minutes ago, Matt_T83 said:

Why do you think I'm wrong, out of curiosity? I have a PhD and I'm working on statistical models for the NHL draft, and late bloomers have a much better chance of transitioning to the NHL. 

Patrick and Hischier both have that special thing that can't be taught which is the ability to drive the play and create opportunities on their own. Vilardi also plays with Brown and Sergachev.

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Posted (edited)

51 minutes ago, Matt_T83 said:

There are no 'proper methods'. However, I'm doing a lot of leave half out models where I take the draft years from say 2000-2011 and pick even numbered years to build models on. I'll rank prospects in all draft years based on how they turned out. Then I look at all possible different combinations and weights of aggregate statistics, picking the best settings that recapitulate the observed order. Then I apply that combination/weighting of aggregate statistics to the odd year drafts and see how well I predict those rankings. If you don't do that, you risk overfitting your model to the data.

 

The metrics you can use are almost endless. And because these are prospects, you need to look at development factors as well. How good were the players line mates? We all know that Jonathan Drouin was boosted playing with MacKinnon in Junior. Drouin has had an 'okay' year with the Lightning, but he's far from living up to a top 5 1st round draft pick. How good is a goalie if he's playing in front of the best defense in the CHL? What about a goalie playing in front of the worst defense in the CHL? 

 

Teasing apart the players individual contributions and development trojectories are almost more important than looking at their actual performance by any standard metrics. I'm trying to make predictions right now on current drafts, and see how they work out. We'll see..

 

 

Of course there are. What are your assumptions e.g., in making those decisions on development and team mates? 

 

Also, a guy like Drouin could be a top 5 performer with a different coach. line or team. You're going to have to test many assumptions to make this work... but good luck. 

 

 

Edited by S'all Good Man
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Vilardi's stat line isn't that impressive and he doesn't have Bo's compete level on his shifts. I wouldn't draft him in the top 5, I'd take Middelstadt instead.

 

1. Patrick

2. Hischier

3. Middelstadt

4. Pettersson 

5. Liljegren

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1 hour ago, Tigs said:

We should move up to draft Hischier.

 

 

I'd much rather, just win the draft lottery :)

 

Its coming up on 50 years in the NHL, you would think we could nail the first overall, just once!

 

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everybody wants someone different. we better leave that up to benning. 

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1 hour ago, Matt_T83 said:

I was looking at the upcoming NHL draft, and I do believe we should trade to acquire another top 5 1st round pick. Specifically, we should target Gabriel Vilardi. Why, you might ask? He's got the telltale signs of recent improvement and overcoming adversity.

 

In 2014-2015 he was only playing in Midget AAA, with decent stats: 21G 18A in 21 games. Then he got into the OHL in 2015-2016 and had a bit of a rough year, with 62 games, 17G 21A and a -7 rating. But he managed to overcome this has 29G 32A in 49 games played with a  +13 rating in 2016-2017. And it's not like this guy is on a dynamite team; the Windsor Spitfires are 5th in their OHL conference. 

 

This guy got into the OHL a full year later than most top 5 draft picks, and had a rough 1st OHL year, and has now moved into the consensus #4 overall draft spot. To me this guy has late bloomer written all over him, and he's 6'2 192 pounds now. I can see this guy being NHL ready at 20 years old and making an immediate impact.

I have been wanting to love Vilardi as he's a center and a Canadian and has size and has Italian blood, but boy, even though supposedly, he has improved his skating this season, he still lacks explosiveness as evidenced in this recent highlights:

 

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Liljegren if we're not in the top 2.  We're going to suck next year as well, so we might as well get another potential top pairing defenseman  (who'll take longer to develop than a forward).  Then next year hopefully we're able to get the top line center in the draft.  All the guys outside the top 2 have big enough question marks that I'm not comfortable using a high pick on the,.  If Liljegren is picked by the time we're drafting, I wouldn't be opposed to moving the pick to either trade down or put together a package for a young center.

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