Vilardi over Patrick?

[Zedlee]

This draft is a crap shoot and I'm not going to twist myself into a pretzel overthinking who they should pick.  

 

But this I know:  There will be impact players selected in this draft (I dunno who, but there is in every draft) and Benning MUST find at least one of them.  His future and the Canucks depends upon it.  

 

 

 

  

 

 

[Boudrias]

I am a frequent critic of the talent level in the current Canuck roster and prospect pool. That aside there is enough talent in a good season (healthy is now good) that the Canucks could easily draft 10 or up next year. My point being  is this draft might be their last crack at a #1 or #2 pick. Benning has to do it right but as Smithers Joe aptly put it is a crap shoot. Bottom line is the Canucks need a skilled big 1C and Patrick fits that bill. Hopefully the medical and interview answers most questions.

 

I am now questioning whether Columbus gives up their 2nd Rounder if they go out 4 straight games. Next year is supposed to be a solid draft so I am not to excited if they keep it.  

[thad]

Where are people getting these work ethic concerns on Patrick? I can't find anything other than message board chatter. 

[Luckylarry]

Just now, thad said:

Where are people getting these work ethic concerns on Patrick? I can't find anything other than message board chatter. 

Never heard that stuff either.  Can these super talented guys just look a bit lazy on the ice because they read the play so well they don't need to move like crazy to get to the pucks?

[thejazz97]

40 minutes ago, Jaku said:

Trade down and draft Mittelstadt? If not Mittelstadt then maybe Rasmussen? 

Preferably not Rasmussen. I'd take a defenseman before Rasmussen.

 

Mittlestadt would be a very good option though, IMO.

[HerrDrFunk]

3 minutes ago, thad said:

Where are people getting these work ethic concerns on Patrick? I can't find anything other than message board chatter. 

There was a scouting report from Craig Button a week or two ago which claimed some of the scouts he'd talked to said Patrick is a lazy player when he doesn't have the puck. How much validity there is in that? Hard to say personally as I've never watched Patrick play before. 

 

Vilardi over Patrick is intriguing for me though. Vilardi is the same size as Patrick, and piling up points, but he's also 11 months younger. 

[morrissex95]

18 minutes ago, HerrDrFunk said:

There was a scouting report from Craig Button a week or two ago which claimed some of the scouts he'd talked to said Patrick is a lazy player when he doesn't have the puck. How much validity there is in that? Hard to say personally as I've never watched Patrick play before. 

 

Vilardi over Patrick is intriguing for me though. Vilardi is the same size as Patrick, and piling up points, but he's also 11 months younger. 

We should be taking Vilardi at #2, even if Patrick is still on the board. 

[groovy]

Bo was considered a safe bet also. That seems to be going pretty good! If you have injury problems playing junior that is not a good thing in my view. If you can`t get the guy you want trade down for sure.

[Boudrias]

24 minutes ago, HerrDrFunk said:

There was a scouting report from Craig Button a week or two ago which claimed some of the scouts he'd talked to said Patrick is a lazy player when he doesn't have the puck. How much validity there is in that? Hard to say personally as I've never watched Patrick play before. 

 

Vilardi over Patrick is intriguing for me though. Vilardi is the same size as Patrick, and piling up points, but he's also 11 months younger. 

There is a fairly large group of fans on CDC who think Joulevi should play in Europe next year because he looks disinterested, even bored playing for London. If Patrick is lazy then hopefully Benning has enough scouting to know that. How often does attitude and outlook change with 18 year olds over 2 years? Not as worried about that concern as I am about his injury history.  

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

46 minutes ago, thad said:

Where are people getting these work ethic concerns on Patrick? I can't find anything other than message board chatter. 

It's been covered before in some rather detailed posts but here's an attempt at a summary.

 

These are the main sources for the doubts surrounding Patrick:

 

(1) https://recrutes.ca/meet-your-makar-king-patrick/

 

Quote

some concerns about Patrick’s effort away from the puck, skating speed and overall competitiveness all crept in as he was under more intense scrutiny in his draft year.

“We faced Patrick quite a few times this year,” said one eastern conference WHL head coach. “Nothing against the kid whatsoever, but what I saw this year and what our coaching staff saw last year are two different players. No question he’s a player, smart and everything else, but I’m not seeing what everybody talked about last year.

“I saw him play against Moose Jaw one night and he was downright lazy. When he has the puck he’s fine..but when he doesn’t…I’ve expected more.  What I heard from last year was that this guy was going to be a handful this year…and he hasn’t been a handful with that hockey club.”

....

issues about his character are also becoming more prevalent in the scouting community from several different sources.

“He’s not the greatest kid I don’t think,” said a scout of one team picking in the top ten. “I don’t know if he’s a great teammate either. That’s what I’ve heard. Maybe just a little bit about himself.”

Up until the world junior tournament there was little talk about Patrick dropping from his perch as the anointed number-one pick, but as Hischier kept producing in big moments, including in a head-to-head matchup against Patrick at the CHL Top Prospects Game, and as Patrick’s return from a hernia injury failed to wow scouts in the same fashion he impressed them last season, it soon became apparent that Patrick was no longer in a league of his own when it came to the draft.

“Our guys aren’t keen on him,” said the scout of another team slated to pick in the top ten. “I would be really surprised if we took Nolan Patrick. Unless it’s a no brainer.  If we’re at 4 or 5…then you’ve gotta do it.  “If (club management) hear a peep on a player we’re not taking him…and they’ve heard some things that concern them.”

 

 

(2) http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/why-nolan-patrick-is-no-longer-the-no-1-draft-prospect

 

Quote

Recently, I was chatting with a director of scouting about the Hischier vs. Nolan Patrick debate. Throughout the season, different NHL team sources have told me that the race for No. 1 was real and some even said there could be several different players in line to go in that spot. But my latest interview provided the best sound bite on the subject: “Someone can’t just be anointed No. 1 because of their history,” he said. “You have to look at the future.”

Patrick, the big Brandon Wheat Kings center, certainly came in with an excellent pedigree. An all-around talent whose father (Steve) and uncle (James) both played in the NHL, Patrick tied for the lead in WHL playoff scoring last season, helping the Wheat Kings to the playoff title and a Memorial Cup berth. As a late September birthday, he missed the 2016 draft cutoff by four days. I ranked Patrick as the top prospect for 2017 in last year’s edition of Future Watch and last year’s edition of Draft Preview.

But since then, Patrick missed Canada’s summer world junior camp due to sports hernia surgery; then missed this year’s world juniors, a big chunk of the regular season and all four of Brandon’s playoff games as the Wheaties were swept by Medicine Hat. Again, due to injuries.

Now here’s the thing about prospects with late birthdays: they’re on the radar longer and that can sometimes lead to them getting picked apart by scouts and the media. As I’ve pointed out numerous times in the past, John Tavares was the focus of a late-season hate brigade by some pundits in his draft year, with some believing Matt Duchene could usurp him. Ask Islanders fans if they’ve been satisfied with their captain since that decision occurred.

But here’s the challenging thing about Patrick: his points production during the regular season actually dropped a bit year over year, from 1.42 to 1.39. I know that’s tiny, but it’s also peculiar. Was it because of the injuries? Was it because Brandon no longer had Jayce Hawrlyuk (FLA), Ivan Provorov (PHI), John Quenneville (NJ) and Tim McGauley (WSH) in the lineup? These are the questions that scouts and execs are now pondering.

“Patrick has been a bit underwhelming,” said my exec. “Hischier has gone in the other direction. He has the benefit of coming from behind. And Hischier’s projection…he just doesn’t disappoint.”

Indeed, Hischier likely came on most fan radars with his magnificent showing at the world juniors for Switzerland. The dynamic center nearly beat Team USA all by himself in the quarterfinal and was named one of the top three players on the team for the tournament.

 

 

(3) http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/juniors/sportsnets-2017-nhl-draft-prospect-rankings-march/

 

In the above video, Sam Cosentino talks about Patrick occasionally appearing "indifferent" and wonders if he has "the drive" necessary to live up to expectations.

 

So definitely some doubts creeping in around Patrick. And some scouts and teams seem to have soured on him a little (at least when it comes to first overall).

 

That said, this is a player who's been "over-scouted" and eventually people just get tired of the positives and look for negatives. Plus his injury history hasn't helped. 

 

Mostly, I think the concerns are overstated. He's still deserving of #1 overall. At least by a slight margin overall.  Hischier definitely has done enough to challenge Patrick. But dropping Patrick any lower than #2 overall seems like an overreaction and likely just the results of him being under a microscope for so long that people are possibly making too much of the minor flaws they've discovered.

[timberz21]

I don't think you can pass on Patrick for injury concern (unless the Team's Doctor review his medical history and there is something major).

 

In 2012 Alex Galchenyuk was expected to battle for top spot of the draft.  He ended playing 2 games his draft year due to a knee surgery, and still got picked 3rd.  Galchenyuk is the highest scoring player from the 2012 class (and 2nd in PPG behind Forsberg). 

 

The same thing happen to Connolly in 2010, and he got picked 6th.  Although he doesn't have the same success as Galchenyuk.

 

There are previous cases that go both ways...the difference is Patrick is still considered #1 by most scouts, despite the injuries.    I would take my chances on the better player.  Vilardi might be the safest pick to be an NHL players, but despite the injuries, Patrick is still the safest pick to get an impact player IMO.  In a deep draft, Vilardi would probably be a top 20 pick (somewhat of a long shot), while Patrick would still be a top 5.

[Phil_314]

4 hours ago, AZCanuck said:

If the Canucks end up at #2 and Nico goes first...

Considering Patrick's lengthy injury history and often-questioned work ethic, would it be a better choice to go with a player like Vilardi who appears to be a safer pick?

Personally speaking I would say yes, and even if it's a weaker draft behind Nolan, Nico and Timothy I'd still say skip Nolan if Nico is already gone as there are still dark horse prospects available.  

With a player like Nolan Patrick as the recognized B.P.A. I fear that his career could very well go the way of Greg Oden, as a touted prospect with injury woes, and wouldn't you know it his career was derailed.  Given how a guy like Vilardi or Mittlestadt can probably provide the same kind of upside and play throughout their careers while filling the team's need for an offensive center, I'd easily say take one of the other centers instead.  Better the reliable "lower-upside"/ "safe" pick than the boom-or-bust center with injury issues IMO.  In such a close group of prospects in terms of talent, might as well go for one who you can be more certain would provide longevity.

[Bur14Kes17]

4 hours ago, Warhippy said:

Bryan Allen

Jason Herter

Shawn Antoski

Dan Woodley

Josh Holden

Cody Hodgson

 

All of them barring Antoski and Holden top 10 picks.  All of them considered safe picks, all of them....well actually IIRC Hodgson had the better career of the bunch going back to...1985!!!!

 

I'm ok going off the board and not taking the safe pick

 

Edited for content, thanks Tas!

Been there. Tried that. Patrick White. 

No thank you.

[Nucker 67]

Oh my, could you imagine the backlash if Benning skipped over Patrick at #2, and he lived up to his potential? Just because he's had some injuries last season. From what I hear, he'd probably need a year in Utica anyway, unless the Canucks decide to fast-track him and hope he learns on the fly. Even with an injury-riddled season, he was more than a point-a-game.

 

If Patrick is available at #2, I think you take him. It depends on his attitude though, and Benning will determine of he's got the character the Canucks want. Whether we get Hischier, Patrick, Vilardi or Mittelstadt, I'm happy with any one of them. The guy's got talent, work ethic can be learned.

[Odjick_fan]

31 minutes ago, Bur14Kes17 said:

Been there. Tried that. Patrick White. 

No thank you.

lol I was jus thinking this as I was reading this thread

 

yeah P White was a 1st round pick (25th) in 2007 but never played a professional game here.  David Perron was chosen after White and Nucks also had a chance to select PK Subban in 2nd round that year rather than taking Ellington lol

[oldnews]

48 minutes ago, Bur14Kes17 said:

Been there. Tried that. Patrick White. 

No thank you.

Hate to break it to you, but there's no such thing as a 'safe' 25th overall pick.  The odds of a 25th overall being a decent NHLer are actually pretty low.

I think people need to get over the idea that missing on a late 1st is such an atrocity.  It's literally to be expected 3 out of 4 times.

Btw, the Canucks dealt him for Ehrhoff.....so, what's the loss, really?

I'd take that cycle all over again tbh.

[Nucker 67]

^^ Benning is looking like a genius for drafting Boeser at #23. I trust whoever they draft this year will be the best player for this club. Only 11 days and we'll know the draft order. Can't wait.

 

I'm still a little leery about Virtanen (#6) and Juolevi (#5), but it's still way too early to tell what those players will end up doing.

 

I have a feeling Canucks will drop 2 spots and draft at #4. My guess is they'll draft Mittelstatd with their 1st. Apparently, Mittelstatd is planning on going to college (U of Minn), instead of joining the NHL right away. Benning may be impressed by his desire to get an education (Boeser).  

[kloubek]

31 minutes ago, groovy said:

Bo was considered a safe bet also.

So was Hodgson.  Just sayin'.

 

My thoughts:

 

I think that there is much more indecision in the top end of this draft than in the last couple of years, so I could see some shuffling in the top spots from what is/was expected.  Last year it was clearly Matthews and Laine in the top 2.  Prior to that, McDavid and Eichel clearly in the top two.  There are no generational players in this draft, and the talent of the top six or seven ranked players are all quite high.  The following half dozen selections should also yield skilled players, so this should be a pretty good draft overall.

 

I still don't see Patrick falling out of the top two.  There might be some questions surrounding him, but I think his overall skillset and the fact he was ranked #1 by almost everyone for almost the entire time will prevail.

I also think Hischier will be in the top two - although it is possible he falls to #3 given that some teams might question his lack of size and physicality.  No less than #3 though.

I think that unless a team really wants a defenseman that Vilardi gets picked third if he isn't selected 2nd.  I don't believe he would be selected first.

 

After that, there are a bunch of talented prospects like Mittelstat, Liljegren, Tippet, and Necas among others could all change positions up and down and I have no idea who I think teams will select - but I do predict Tippet will be selected 5th or 6th - even though the scouting reports don't have him that high.  I think his pedigree and size will ultimately make him more attractive to teams.

 

Should be a fun draft - and I'm happy that no matter what the Canucks should be able to draft a really solid player in the first round.  If we happened to win the first selection, I'd be quite happy to see Benning trade down a couple notches since the top 3 are so darn close.  If there was any way for us to snag two top ten selections, I'm pretty confident Benning would make the most of those picks in such a talented draft.

 

[JM_]

Vilardi is only 17 and is already 6-2 pushing 200 lbs, so I don't think there's a size advantage with Patrick. If Benning thinks there's an issue with injuries and / or attitude with Patrick and passes on him thats fine. We'll hear endless 'but we cudda had Tkatchup AND Patrick' for 20 years.... 

 

Watching the SJS series, one thing that really stands out is the good containment of McDiver by the SJS D, so that shows you can, so far, handle him so I'm happy Benning is trying to stock up on D. If we drop to 5 I'd like him to grab up Liljegren and stack our D even more.  

[Bur14Kes17]

22 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Hate to break it to you, but there's no such thing as a 'safe' 25th overall pick.  The odds of a 25th overall being a decent NHLer are actually pretty low.

I think people need to get over the idea that missing on a late 1st is such an atrocity.  It's literally to be expected 3 out of 4 times.

Btw, the Canucks dealt him for Ehrhoff.....so, what's the loss, really?

I'd take that cycle all over again tbh.

Patrick White wasn't expected to be picked until late in the 2nd round LOL I still remember the reaction of the commentator when the Canucks picked him. "Patrick White!! Wow... that's a really off the board selection.. let's find some notes on Patrick and get back to you." He could t even cut it in the German leagues lol