Cannot Mis-Management Review.

[ForsbergTheGreat]

On 4/29/2017 at 2:49 PM, Crabcakes said:

Agreed.  It's easy to get fixated on draft picks.  I prefer to look at assets coming into the system.

 

Actually, using a draft pick to draft with is a riskier proposition because you have the uncertainty of more development time.  I think that especially with picks in the top half of the first round, the upside is pretty difficult to ignore.  At a certain point, you might be better off using picks to trade for prospects who have developed for a couple of years.  You have a much better idea of what kind of player you will have.  So it's a tradeoff between upside and more development time vs certainty and less time.

 

When Benning traded a 2nd for Linden Vey, that was an acceptable risk for me.  They knew that he had good character and a good record at the AHL level.  He was on the verge of making the NHL but was having difficulty cracking a deep line up with the Kings at the time.  The hope, I suppose was that he would make a good 3rd line player.  He didn't make it but he did play 126 games for the Canucks.  Is that a fail?  Some may say yes but he filled a need for a time and frankly, I would place him ahead of Megna or Chaput. 

 

Here's what I'll argue with that.  You are right it's a trade off between potential upside vs certainty.  But a franchise in a rebuilding state, where the goal is to find new core players, are you more likely to find a core players from a 23 year old with less than 20 NHL games experience or a 2nd round pick. 

 

Again you are right the hope was that he would make a good 3rd line player (i'd suspect 2nd line ceiling), but at canucks state did they need another 3rd line player, more than they needed more opportunities to finding more core players?

 

 

Also statically the certainty drops considerably when the player reached that 23 year old mark, based on what they've already accomplished.

 

There was a report a while ago that showed the correlations between ages, AHL success and how that relates to NHL success.  The purposed behind it was the success rate of a player having played under 20 NHL games prior to the age of 23 was extremely low, basically the only real successes were undrafted late bloomers that took the long road, or players the went the full 4 years NCCA before getting to the NHL. Since the lockout the top players to do that were Moulson, Ebbett and Desharnais. 

 

Another report i've seen showed the success rate of 23 year old AHL players making the full time jump to the NHL was less than 13%, that's just full time NHLers (playing in more than 200 NHL games), not impact players.  Which is considerably far less than the 26.66% chance that 2nd round picks will play over 200 NHL games. 

 

So mathematically the numbers don't justify that canucks decision in the vey trade, and honestly i don't think they really even considered the numbers (it's not like JB had a lot of time on his hands, he was just hired), It likely had more to do with familiarity and gut feelings. 

[oldnews]

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[NewbieCanuckFan]

3 hours ago, oldnews said:

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[Crabcakes]

6 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

 

Here's what I'll argue with that.  You are right it's a trade off between potential upside vs certainty.  But a franchise in a rebuilding state, where the goal is to find new core players, are you more likely to find a core players from a 23 year old with less than 20 NHL games experience or a 2nd round pick. 

 

Again you are right the hope was that he would make a good 3rd line player (i'd suspect 2nd line ceiling), but at canucks state did they need another 3rd line player, more than they needed more opportunities to finding more core players?

 

 

Also statically the certainty drops considerably when the player reached that 23 year old mark, based on what they've already accomplished.

 

There was a report a while ago that showed the correlations between ages, AHL success and how that relates to NHL success.  The purposed behind it was the success rate of a player having played under 20 NHL games prior to the age of 23 was extremely low, basically the only real successes were undrafted late bloomers that took the long road, or players the went the full 4 years NCCA before getting to the NHL. Since the lockout the top players to do that were Moulson, Ebbett and Desharnais. 

 

Another report i've seen showed the success rate of 23 year old AHL players making the full time jump to the NHL was less than 13%, that's just full time NHLers (playing in more than 200 NHL games), not impact players.  Which is considerably far less than the 26.66% chance that 2nd round picks will play over 200 NHL games. 

 

So mathematically the numbers don't justify that canucks decision in the vey trade, and honestly i don't think they really even considered the numbers (it's not like JB had a lot of time on his hands, he was just hired), It likely had more to do with familiarity and gut feelings. 

That's a good point.  I think that you can add players post draft but as you say, there is a limit to their upside. As they approach 23, these players are closer to their maximum upside.  One would have to be very careful with this strategy.  Obviously, Benning has been trying to speed up the rebuild by adding prospects as I have said.  I felt at the time (2 years ago) that Benning was finding players on the cheap who had basically fallen through the cracks with other teams.  

 

Benning was successful with Baertschi who was 22 when traded for.  Granlund was 22 barely.  Could we call Reid Boucher a success? (age 23 when picked off waivers).  Vey's success was mixed because he played 120 games but didn't stick, he was 23 at the time of the trade. Etem was 22, soon to be 23, and Clendening was 22 could be considered failures.  Kennins I think, wasn't the same after his knee injury.  Kassian was 24 when given up on.  But all these players seem to be either 23 or close to it.

 

It's interesting that now, Benning seems to be taking prospects like this less often and when he has done, they have been younger and they have cost real assets: Goldobin 21 and Dahlin 19