5th Overall: CDC 2017 Draft Consensus

[Putgolzin]

1. Vilardi - I think people are going to forget his "skating issues" as quickly as they've forgotten Tkachuk's. Also, almost a full year younger than Nolan Patrick. It would be a huge coup if he fell to us imho

2. Mittlestadt - I think this is who we'll get, and I think he'll be awesome. His name sounds like an NHL star to me. I'm a little concerned about his past commitment to high school hockey though - seems very Patrick White-ish

3. Glass - meh, probably would be good too. 

[Nucker 67]

1. Glass - 6'2" 180 and growing. With Portland (WHL) 94 points (32 goals) in 69 games. Plays all forward positions. Smart player with a good shot.

2. Vilardi - Big dude, 6'3" 200. Talk about the big C we need. Yes, he needs to work on his skating. So did Bo. With Windsor (OHL) 61 points (29 goals) in 49 games.

3. Tippett - Another big dude, 6'2" 200. With Mississauga (OHL) 75 points (44 goals) in 60 games. That's like 2 goals every 3 games. Just got a feeling he'll be a very solid NHLer.

 

Don't really want Liljegren. Would prefer Makar if they take a RHD.

[shiznak]

Assuming Vilardi is gone by the time we pick at 5:

 

1. Tippett

2. Glass

3. Pettersson

 

Do not want:

Rasmussen or Middlestadt

[BI3KSALLENT]

55 minutes ago, nzan said:

agreed on your "weak" draft reasoning.

i think vilardi would be top 10 last year though.

I couldn't pick anyone out of the top-10 that I would pick him over, but I also have the advantage of hindsight. If there was a team looking for a big, strong, skilled C however there would be a chance he'd go there for sure. (Maybe Montreal?)

[guntrix]

If Mittelstadt is up there when we pick, we take him and run. 

 

No to Vilardi though. Rather have Glass, Heiskanen and Tolvanen. 

[Lancaster]

Any idea why Klim Kostin isn't as highly touted.  As the #1 European skater, that must mean he's pretty good, right?

I get it there's the "Russian factor" and him being a RW doesn't necessarily fill a desperate void on the Canucks prospect cupboard, but to be still #1 after missing a lot of games.... must mean he's very talented.

 

Not saying the Canucks should draft him at #5... but maybe trade down to pick him. 

[guntrix]

9 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

1. Glass - 6'2" 180 and growing. With Portland (WHL) 94 points (32 goals) in 69 games. Plays all forward positions. Smart player with a good shot.

2. Vilardi - Big dude, 6'3" 200. Talk about the big C we need. Yes, he needs to work on his skating. So did Bo. With Windsor (OHL) 61 points (29 goals) in 49 games.

3. Tippett - Another big dude, 6'2" 200. With Mississauga (OHL) 75 points (44 goals) in 60 games. That's like 2 goals every 3 games. Just got a feeling he'll be a very solid NHLer.

 

Don't really want Liljegren. Would prefer Makar if they take a RHD.

Vilardi's other question mark is his production... only 61 points in 49 games in the high-scoring OHL as a 6'3" C... 

 

Meanwhile Glass logged almost 100 points in the defensively superior WHL. To me, it's clear who the better player is. 

[Hectic]

3 hours ago, ReggieBush said:

1. Glass

2. Mittelstadt

3. Makar

 

Do not want

Vilardi

Rasmussen

 

Also who said in 2015 that they didn't want Brock?

Same as you except I switch Mittelstadt and Glass. Makar as 3rd choice. And same, don't want Vilardi or Rasmussen, especially Rasmussen - guy looks like Marc Chouinard 2.0

[NaslundLindenBure]

Vilardi, would love a guy with good work ethic and also almost a year younger than the rest. His production has been pretty good for being younger. Also give more time for him to grow

[DeNiro]

6 minutes ago, guntrix said:

Vilardi's other question mark is his production... only 61 points in 49 games in the high-scoring OHL as a 6'3" C... 

 

Meanwhile Glass logged almost 100 points in the defensively superior WHL. To me, it's clear who the better player is. 

61 points was good for first on his team as a 17 year old playing with a team that featured mostly 19 year olds. Context people.

 

If he was playing on a team like the Winterhawks, his totals would likely be much higher. But that also ignores the fact that he's a far superior two way player to Glass.

 

It's not always as simple as comparing point totals. Sometime you have to look a little deeper.

[guntrix]

1 minute ago, DeNiro said:

61 points was good for first on his team as a 17 year old playing with a team that featured mostly 19 year olds. Context people.

 

If he was playing on a team like the Winterhawks, his totals would likely be much higher.

 

It's not always as simple as comparing point totals. Sometime you have to look a little deeper.

In being a 17 year old, Vilardi was sheltered and didn't have to play the hardest minutes during his draft year - something that should raise alarms. Meanwhile Glass was leading his team. We could go into hypotheticals and wonder how many points Gabe would notch on another team but that would be a risky move while picking top five.

 

Context goes both ways. 

[baumerman77]

25 minutes ago, guntrix said:

Vilardi's other question mark is his production... only 61 points in 49 games in the high-scoring OHL as a 6'3" C... 

 

Meanwhile Glass logged almost 100 points in the defensively superior WHL. To me, it's clear who the better player is. 

The WHL was a higher scoring league the OHL this year. 

[DeNiro]

10 minutes ago, guntrix said:

In being a 17 year old, Vilardi was sheltered and didn't have to play the hardest minutes during his draft year - something that should raise alarms. Meanwhile Glass was leading his team. We could go into hypotheticals and wonder how many points Gabe would notch on another team but that would be a risky move while picking top five.

 

Context goes both ways. 

Do you have proof that Vilardi was "sheltered"? And if so, did Glass not get that same treatment?

 

Both lead their teams, so your point doesn't really add up. The Spitfires simply played a stronger two-way brand of hockey than the higher octane Winterhawks. Doesn't really point to either player being better offensively.

[Putgolzin]

4 minutes ago, guntrix said:

In being a 17 year old, Vilardi was sheltered and didn't have to play the hardest minutes during his draft year - something that should raise alarms. Meanwhile Glass was leading his team. We could go into hypotheticals and wonder how many points Gabe would notch on another team but that would be a risky move while picking top five.

 

Context goes both ways. 

I know little of context, and I know coaches always talk their players up, but man this praise from his coach sounds good to me,

 

""The enhanced stats tell us [Vilardi] is the engine on this team because whoever plays with him, their Corsi numbers go straight up and are increased," [Windsor coach Rocky] Thompson said. "Without him, they drop significantly. We've had a ton of injuries this year so it's been a revolving door with our lines but the one common theme has been Vilardi's ability to make the players with him even better.""

[guntrix]

17 minutes ago, DeNiro said:

Do you have proof that Vilardi was "sheltered"? And if so, did Glass not get that same treatment?

 

Both lead their teams, so you're point doesn't really add up. The Spitfires simply played a stronger two-way brand of hockey than the higher octane Spitfires. Doesn't really point to either player being better offensively.

Luchuk, Nattinen and McCool all played more games... and that's with Logan Brown battling injuries this season and only logging 35 games in the top 6. 

 

McKenzie and Hughes played more than Cody but they only Logged 3 and 1 more games. Statistically, Cody has far more assists than anyone on his team and is only second in goals to McKenzie - the principal benefactor of his playmaking abilities. 

 

17 minutes ago, baumerman77 said:

I think the WHL might have been higher scoring this year than the OHL. 

While that may be true on a given year, I think the WHL stresses the importance of strong defensive play and usually consists of teams with skillful and strong defenders, many of which have gone on to have good careers in the NHL. 

 

15 minutes ago, nzan said:

I know little of context, and I know coaches always talk their players up, but man this praise from his coach sounds good to me,

 

""The enhanced stats tell us [Vilardi] is the engine on this team because whoever plays with him, their Corsi numbers go straight up and are increased," [Windsor coach Rocky] Thompson said. "Without him, they drop significantly. We've had a ton of injuries this year so it's been a revolving door with our lines but the one common theme has been Vilardi's ability to make the players with him even better.""

Fair point. 

[DeNiro]

6 minutes ago, guntrix said:

Luchuk, Nattinen and McCool all played more games... and that's with Logan Brown battling injuries this season and only logging 35 games in the top 6. 

 

McKenzie and Hughes played more than Cody but they only Logged 3 and 1 more games. Statistically, Cody has far more assists than anyone on his team and is only second in goals to McKenzie - the principal benefactor of his playmaking abilities. 

You're not really proving that he was sheltered. Give a breakdown of his minutes, what his matchups and assignments were then you can say he was sheltered.

 

The Winterhawks are a younger team than the Spitfires anyways, meaning Glass would have had more opportunity. So again it's not as simple as comparing stats across leagues on two different teams with different circumstances. 

[baumerman77]

2 minutes ago, guntrix said:

McKenzie and Hughes played more than Cody but they only Logged 3 and 1 more games. Statististically, Cody has far more assists than anyone on his team and is only second in goals to McKenzie - the principal benefactor of his playmaking abilities. 

 

They are very close when you eliminate secondary assists (which are less predictive and have proven to be unreliable at the junior level)

 

             G/GP      A1/GP       P1/GP

Glass    .46         .52              .99

Vilardi   .59          .39             .98

 

 

[guntrix]

8 minutes ago, DeNiro said:

You're not really proving that he was sheltered. Give a breakdown of his minutes, what his matchups and assignments were then you can say he was sheltered.

 

The Winterhawks are a younger team than the Spitfires anyways, meaning Glass would have had more opportunity. So again it's not as simple as comparing stats across leagues on two different teams with different circumstances. 

It's difficult to find a reliable website with a firm breakdown of minutes. However, at the junior level, GP is usually indicative of how much players are relied upon as older players or overagers usually log harder minutes. As you said, this holds true in Gabe's case

 

14 minutes ago, baumerman77 said:

They are very close when you eliminate secondary assists (which are less predictive and have proven to be unreliable at the junior level)

 

             G/GP      A1/GP       P1/GP

Glass    .46         .52              .99

Vilardi   .59          .39             .98

 

 

I agree that secondary assists are unreliable but I think you're doing Cody a disservice as he's a playmaker while Gabe is more of a goal scorer. Completely taking away 2As is akin to levelling the playing field.

[baumerman77]

4 minutes ago, guntrix said:

It's difficult to find a reliable website with a firm breakdown of minutes. However, at the junior level, GP is usually indicative of how much players are relied upon as older players or overagers usually log harder minutes. As you said, this holds true in Gabe's case

Yes getting reliable minutes is next to impossible. Especially for the WHL.

 

Here is a breakdown of their most common teammates:

 

Glass:

  80.95% - Skyler McKenzie
  52.38% - Caleb Jones
  51.7% - Keegan Iverson
  36.73% - Henri Jokiharju
  34.69% - Brendan De Jong

 

Vilardi:

52.73% - Julius Nattinen
47.27% - Jalen Chatfield
37.27% - Jeremiah Addison
37.27% - Sean Day
35.45% - Mikhail Sergachev

[Junkyard Dog]

Out of everyone I prefer(Glass, Mittelstadt, Vilardi) I'd want Vilardi at 5 the most.

 

Hopefully he falls.