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[Discussion] How close are the Canucks really?


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How close are the Canucks really to having the pieces in the system that could develop into a core that could compete for a cup?  I'm taking a cup half full approach.  The point is to stand back and take a look at the big picture.  It is too easy to get caught up in the details and too often we all forget exactly where this rebuild stands.

 

There are several models for a core.  Pierre McGuire came up with one that I think is fairly comprehensive.  The players who qualify for the core would have to be 25 or younger as of today.

 

1.  Centre 1  ....................  Horvat

2.  Centre 2  ..................... ?

3.  Power forward  ...........  Boeser

4.  Specialist  ...................  Sutter (too old), Gaudette, Cassels

5.  Offensive D  ...............  ?

6.  Shut down D  .............  Juolevi

7.  Goalie  .......................  Demko

 

With the 5 OA this year, I would expect Benning to either be the top 6 C or top pair D.  Same goes for next draft.  Essentially, this core could be assembled within 14 months.  It's obvious that we don't know how players will develop.  There will be some surprised and some disappointments but they're really only 2 or 3 pieces away.

 

There are some nice support pieces coming along who are 25 and under. Baertschi, Granlund, Goldobin, Dahlen, Gudbranson, Hutton, and Stecher. 

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I think we are getting close, we just need a few more additions. Like you have said another center is needed, I believe Bo can be a 1C, and hopefully in this years draft we can find a 2C. I want to see our players such as Boeser, Virtanen, Stecher etc. improve this off season, I already know Bo is going to work hard this off season.

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Cale Makar could be that defenseman imo. He has dynamic offensive defenseman written all over him. Casey mittlestadt also has 1st line center potential, I think he has potential to be the best center in this draft. Speed with elite IQ... lethal combo 

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We will be drafting top 5 to top 10 untl 2019 or 2020 realistically.  Allowing for depth of skilled prospects to be introduced in to the system in Utica, also allowing for us to weed out the chaff from the last 2 or 3 drafts and the next 2 or 3 drafts.

 

We need 1 to 2 more D capable of being called top 4 (35-50 point and 20+ minutes a night) or better from our drafts, we need 2 more wingers capable of being called top line or top 6 potential (60-80 points) we need a top line point producing center, not a 2 way Horvat but a who cares about defense let my wingers do it 70+ point center, we also need to fill the cupboards with additional prospects that we can look at and know for certain they can fill in a top 6 forward role or top 4 defensive role without issue and another Demko status potential net minder

 

Simply put, we need two or three additional picks in the first 5 rounds and a minimum of 2 additional drafted players to work out perfectly every draft on top of our own 1st round picks in the top 10 for the next 3 drafts before we are capably stocked and ready to be considered playoff threats or cup potential contenders.

 

Or in laymans terms, a miracle

 

2017:  Top 5

2018:  Top 5

2019:  Top 10

2020:  Top 15

2021:  Top 15

 

This i probably what we are looking at and probably what we NEED to be looking at and for to be a deep enough, skilled enough team with young core players on the team as well as players in the minors (CHL, NCAA, Europe) to be considered "ready"  

 

So IMO on how close we are, 3 years of failure, 2 years of mediocrity.  Why is this my timeline?  Because of expiring contracts, entrants in to Utica that need to be vetted/weeded out and available roster space.  But also, because not only do we need the depth at all positions.  But we would be doing something this team has NEVER done before.  Actually drafting, developing and stockpiling asets of our own instead of jumping the gun ALA Burke and trading them as soon as they come in to the system in an effort to jump ahead of the curve.

 

We need this more than we need playoffs next year.  This team has never had a proper tear down in its entire existence.  96-99 was as close as we got and we peaked to early and should have tried to garner 2 more years of decent picks/depth of picks before the WCE peaked.  Fingers crossed we do it right this time, we're almost half way there

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Our top 5 pick in this draft, and our top 5 in next years draft, top 15 pick in 2019 as well as trading vets for mid 1st round picks and 2nd round picks, (basically good drafting) and we won't be far at all.

 

We've got good depth in goal in Demko, Markstrom, and Garteig. Our defense is alright but could use a bonafide PMD defenseman particularly a right handed shot (Liljegren, Makar). With Juolevi, and say Liljegren in this draft, alongside Brisebois, Hutton, Stecher, Gudbranson, Pedan, hell even Subban, I would say our defense is looking pretty solid.

 

Obviously offense is an area of improvement. Horvat, Boeser, Dahlen, Goldobin, Gaudette, Baertschi, Granlund, Virtanen. Not bad, but could be better. Hopefully we can get a 1st line center next year in the top 5 coupled with brilliant drafting and honestly we're very close.

 

By the time the Sedins retire in a few years, I think our team will be completed and by 2020/2021, I think we'll be a legitimate playoff team. 

 

So to summarize: 2016, 2017, 2018 tank years, 2019 mediocre team (Sedins retire after the season), 2020 Sedinless team and possible playoff berth, 2021 playoffs.

 

The key to all of this is good drafting. Oh, and selling vets and getting picks in return ::D

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2 hours ago, Crabcakes said:

How close are the Canucks really to having the pieces in the system that could develop into a core that could compete for a cup?  I'm taking a cup half full approach.  The point is to stand back and take a look at the big picture.  It is too easy to get caught up in the details and too often we all forget exactly where this rebuild stands.

 

There are several models for a core.  Pierre McGuire came up with one that I think is fairly comprehensive.  The players who qualify for the core would have to be 25 or younger as of today.

 

1.  Centre 1  ....................  Horvat

2.  Centre 2  ..................... ?

3.  Power forward  ...........  Boeser

4.  Specialist  ...................  Sutter (too old), Gaudette, Cassels

5.  Offensive D  ...............  ?

6.  Shut down D  .............  Juolevi

7.  Goalie  .......................  Demko

 

With the 5 OA this year, I would expect Benning to either be the top 6 C or top pair D.  Same goes for next draft.  Essentially, this core could be assembled within 14 months.  It's obvious that we don't know how players will develop.  There will be some surprised and some disappointments but they're really only 2 or 3 pieces away.

 

There are some nice support pieces coming along who are 25 and under. Baertschi, Granlund, Goldobin, Dahlen, Gudbranson, Hutton, and Stecher. 

Is Juolevi a shut down D? My understanding is that he's more of a Two Way Defensive Man.

 

Anyways ...

Shut Down D - Tanev 

Offensive D - Jordan Subban 

Centre 2 - 2017 Draft Pick 

 

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37 minutes ago, Hairy Kneel said:

Be good to keep trading vets for picks till Boeser and Demko are ready. Keep adding through the draft and live with missing the playoffs for two more years.

Not many vets left...

Sutter and Erickson are pretty close to untradeable. Sedins not going anywhere... Pretty much only leaves Tanev and Edler :P

 

Also to OP... Boeser doesn't really play like a PWF, he's plays more like a sniper. IF you want a PWF then hope for Virtanen to develop.

 

My guess is 2-3 years we'll start trending upwards.

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I think we're closer than people think but we're missing the depth scoring and shutdown D required to be even moderately competitive in the current league. Within five years, teams are going to dread playing the northwestern teams (except Seattle when they enter the league in 2022).

 

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17 minutes ago, goblix said:

Not many vets left...

Sutter and Erickson are pretty close to untradeable. Sedins not going anywhere... Pretty much only leaves Tanev and Edler :P

 

Also to OP... Boeser doesn't really play like a PWF, he's plays more like a sniper. IF you want a PWF then hope for Virtanen to develop.

 

My guess is 2-3 years we'll start trending upwards.

Tanev, Edler, Dorsett, Sutter, Sbisa, Ericksson (if he scores 30-40 g)

Draft picks and trades plus the ED might be our rebuild routes.

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I wish I could be as positive as you guys. For us to get back to being real competitive it's going to take nearly everything going right and throw in a miracle or two.

 

The OP mentioned Cassels. Is there another Cassels in our system other than Cole? Because 18 points in 133 AHL games doesn't really say NHL regular.

 

I'm reminded of an old quote from Charles Barkley from ages ago addressing Vancouver Grizzlies fans. It went something like.........

 

"I don't know what's got you so excited, y'all are going to get beat like a drum for a long time".

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7 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said:

The OP mentioned Cassels. Is there another Cassels in our system other than Cole? Because 18 points in 133 AHL games doesn't really say NHL regular.

There's only Cole Cassels, but it's the same Cassels that shut down McDavid in the Juniors. Seeing as McDavid also plays in the Pacific Division Cole Cassels will come in handy as a  Bottom 6 Center for the team.

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6 hours ago, morrissex95 said:

Two more years of rebuilding and we'll be right back in the thick of it. Looks like we're following the Boston model. 

And Boston have just changed their model because they feel it's no longer effective with how the league is trending. 


I don't think Benning is following the Boston model.  He already identified two years ago that the league is going to be about speed and skills.  He was talking of how it's less now about size and being physical than it is about being fast.  He says not only skating fast but also thinking fast.

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