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[Proposal] VAN - MTL


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10 hours ago, Nuxfanabroad said:

Interesting comparison. I like Rhino. Expansion-ineligible(I think?). Local boy, & a righty.

 

Likely slightly more costly, I'd venture?

yup SR isn't eligible for Vegas... I doubt we could land either of AG or SR but they do seem like similar type players. MTL-Minni just seems like too good a fit now for nothing to happen. 

 

But... maybe that gives us a shot at trading for the other Granlund brother or another good F depending on who they want to protect. They have to protect Parise, Koivu, JP, and then AG if they trade for him so they risk losing one of their other good young Fs in the deal. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, kloubek said:

How on earth do you figure this?

 

1) He's young and getting noticeably better.  He should probably expand on his ppg totals by some 5-10% next season.
2) Even given last year's stats, he was a .51 ppg player.  Expand that to 82 full games and that's just over 42 points.  That is absolutely NOT 3rd line material for even a high-scoring team like the Penguins.  In fact, average 2nd line winger scoring is less than 34 points.  With 42 points, that puts him in elite 2nd line scoring company, and closing in on low-end 1st line scoring.

Don't get me wrong - I would never suggest he's a 1st line player at this point nor am I convinced he ever will be, but the stats don't lie as far as his capability on the 2nd line.

 


As far as the trade proposal goes, I think the value is about right.  Only thing that worries me about Galchenyuk is his inconsistency, and poor faceoff ability.  

His 0.51 point per game has him at 154th overall in the NHL for forwards who have played 30+ games, so you are correct in calling him a second-line player by that definition - the top 180 would meet the threshold to be called top-6 forwards somewhere.  

 

But saying that is good production for a Penguins second-liner is flat out wrong. The Penguins have 6 forwards with better point-per-game numbers than Baertschi, so he's the seventh best forward there in that sense. The Penguins also have Rust, Kunitz, Hornqvist and Bonino right behind Baertschi in Points per game, and all of them play less and see less power-play time. Safe to assume Baertschi likely plays a fourth-line player, if at all in Pittsburgh. 

 

All in all, when people call Baerstchi a third line player it's because on a playoff team, that's where he slots in. It's only on the 25th-31st place type teams he's playing as a second line player. 

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9 minutes ago, chickenman92 said:

His 0.51 point per game has him at 154th overall in the NHL for forwards who have played 30+ games, so you are correct in calling him a second-line player by that definition - the top 180 would meet the threshold to be called top-6 forwards somewhere.  

 

But saying that is good production for a Penguins second-liner is flat out wrong. The Penguins have 6 forwards with better point-per-game numbers than Baertschi, so he's the seventh best forward there in that sense. The Penguins also have Rust, Kunitz, Hornqvist and Bonino right behind Baertschi in Points per game, and all of them play less and see less power-play time. Safe to assume Baertschi likely plays a fourth-line player, if at all in Pittsburgh. 

 

All in all, when people call Baerstchi a third line player it's because on a playoff team, that's where he slots in. It's only on the 25th-31st place type teams he's playing as a second line player. 

Baer's production puts him 5th in 5v5 points on the Penguins while not playing with Malkin or Crosby at C.  The difference in production is the PP.

 

If you go by P/GP or P60 at 5v5 - Baer and Horvat have pretty much the same numbers.  They lead the Canucks and are ranked around 90th among all Fs with more than 40 games played.  

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3 hours ago, chickenman92 said:

His 0.51 point per game has him at 154th overall in the NHL for forwards who have played 30+ games, so you are correct in calling him a second-line player by that definition - the top 180 would meet the threshold to be called top-6 forwards somewhere.  

 

But saying that is good production for a Penguins second-liner is flat out wrong. The Penguins have 6 forwards with better point-per-game numbers than Baertschi, so he's the seventh best forward there in that sense. The Penguins also have Rust, Kunitz, Hornqvist and Bonino right behind Baertschi in Points per game, and all of them play less and see less power-play time. Safe to assume Baertschi likely plays a fourth-line player, if at all in Pittsburgh. 

 

All in all, when people call Baerstchi a third line player it's because on a playoff team, that's where he slots in. It's only on the 25th-31st place type teams he's playing as a second line player. 

Ok - wait a sec.  I never said he was a good 2nd liner on the Penguins.  I said he wasn't a 3rd liner, even on a team like the Penguins.  Meaning, if you look at their third line winger production, he's better than that.  Hence, he is not a 3rd liner.  Overall, I slot him in as a decent 2nd liner on most teams... just not the high scoring teams like the Wild or Penguins.  Certainly on most teams though.

And when you look at the 154th, keep in mind that centers always score more.  So you're excluding wingers and the center from the top line, and then the center from the 2nd line on all teams.  That's 120 players right off the bat who are likely to inherently have more points.  So then if you consider 2 wingers on each 2nd line, that's 60 players, or ranging from 121-181.  Which puts him squarely in the middle of 2nd line scoring by using these stats.  So whether you use my method of stats or yours (excluding players who played less than 30), he ranges from a solid 2nd liner to a high end 2nd liner.  Either way, that's far better than the 3rd liner moniker previously claimed.

Additionally, I feel he improved his defensive play, and of forwards on our team who played the majority of games, he was near the top in +/-.  I figure that ought to account for something as well - depending on how much faith one puts in the +/- stat.

Finally, let's not forget he's only 24.  He has room to improve.  When talking stats, we are talking the full range of ages which means that most of the players in the group also don't hold the potential he does.  

All of this comes together to make it pretty clear that we shouldn't devalue Sven.  He may not be a star, but he truly is a solid player who can man our 2nd line wing and at 1.8m/year is actually quite a steal.  I'll be interested to know how much he will make when he negotiates his new contract.

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On 6/16/2017 at 10:47 AM, walgrove65 said:

here's what should be the deal:

to habs: Tanev, Sutter, canucks 2nd from columbus

to Canucks: Galchenyuk, Juulsen, Beaulieu (stopgap)

 

I like it but I don't think they will give up their best young centre and d prospect for two older, established guys.

 

How about just Edler, Sutter and Columbus 2nd for Galchenyuk plus 25OA.

 

They get a great dman to replace Markov and Emelin who it looks like is going in the Expansion Draft.  Plus a solid, 2 way centre with 20 goals.  We get Galchenyuk who played with Goldobin and Reid Boucher in Junior.  Plus a chance to get another long term piece at the end of the first round.  

 

Then we pick Vilardi/Glass and Nicholas Hague

 

Baertschi Horvat Boeser

Dahlen Vilardi/Glass Granlund

Goldobin Galchenyuk Virtanen

Gaunce Gaudette Boucher

 

We would definitely be able to put together a top 6/9 out of this group

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25 minutes ago, Dixon Ward said:

I like it but I don't think they will give up their best young centre and d prospect for two older, established guys.

 

How about just Edler, Sutter and Columbus 2nd for Galchenyuk plus 25OA.

 

They get a great dman to replace Markov and Emelin who it looks like is going in the Expansion Draft.  Plus a solid, 2 way centre with 20 goals.  We get Galchenyuk who played with Goldobin and Reid Boucher in Junior.  Plus a chance to get another long term piece at the end of the first round.  

 

Then we pick Vilardi/Glass and Nicholas Hague

 

Baertschi Horvat Boeser

Dahlen Vilardi/Glass Granlund

Goldobin Galchenyuk Virtanen

Gaunce Gaudette Boucher

 

We would definitely be able to put together a top 6/9 out of this group

Would be all over that.

- Emelin got claimed

- We still have Sbisa(apparently?)

 

But would Eddie waive for Mtl? Lots of cap going to Mtl here(retain on Edler..it's 2 yrs?) Or something like they add Shaw & we toss in our Granny(only 900 k)

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I'm not sold on Galchenyuk's future as a #1 center, and I wouldn't be satisfied with this deal especially if he's coming back alone for Tanev (if Tanev can yield Duchene then I feel like we're banking too much on potential alone).

Galchenyuk and a pick for him would work IMO.  

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