Pettersson vs Glass in 2017-2018

[Fanuck]

Lind only had 7 less points than Glass while only playing 1 more game.   While their respective teams will have different trajectories in the WHL next season  (Portland is presumed to be one of the top teams in the league ) this comparison is going to be more fun to follow imo. Apples to apples with head-to-head match ups during the season. 

[higgyfan]

I think Glass will be a good player, but I never really thought he'd be more than a 1bC or #2C.  I thought he would probably share the 1C role with Bo, but would never become the sole player at that level.

 

I never really liked Vilardi as the #5.  I don't like his skating as he seems to have an awkward style that could be problematic to improve on; especially considering his size.  There's a reason he fell to LA.

 

Neither of these guys have the dynamic and creative talent that Petterson has.  He appears to be the best playmaker in the draft and will make the players around him better.

 

It's awful early to have this discussion and we won't really know for a few years anyways.  It sure would be a fantastic thing if  Petterson turns out to be what some of us are projecting him to be.  No more Nuck Luck!

[spook007]

5 hours ago, Derp... said:

I know there are a lot of people who would have rather had Glass than Pettersson and I think that number is going to grow before Christmas next year. There is a very real possibility that Glass will score a ton of points next year in the WHL playing with Kieffer Bellows. So much so that he could be the most productive player in the WHL similar to Sam Steel this past season.

While this is happening Pettersson will be playing in Vaxjo against bigger, faster, stronger players that will take time for him to adjust too. He will probably have a transition period where he isn't scoring a ton, and is playing second or third line minutes in the SHL.

By christmas Pettersson might be around a half point per game in the SHL, while Glass is around 2 points per game in the WHL. That is going to be a tough pill to swallow for a lot of fans, and rightfully so. Elite scoring centres don't come along every day in the CHL.

What should we take away from the early season then?

The jump that Pettersson is going to make is nearly equivalent to going to the AHL for a North American player at 18-19. He will be learning how to defend and create against players that have many of the small details of the game figured out. This experience is going to be huge for him when he comes over to the AHL/NHL. Personally I think Pettersson has a skill set that is somewhat like a combination of Daniel and Henrik Sedin. He projects to be about the same size as them: 6'2 185-190, and thinks the game at an elite level. While he is learning how to play the pro game and Glass and the Winterhawks are picking on young players and goalies in the WHL we should not just focus on the points.

What is Glass most likely to become?

Looking into comparable seasons, only 4 players with similar numbers and size to Glass have become first line players in the NHL. 4/20 That is a 20% chance of getting a first line Centre, and a 45% 9/20 of him becoming a second line centre. I realize there is totally the chance that he becomes the player everyone expects he could be like, but in reality there is no guarantee with any prospect. I actually think there is a very good chance that Suzuki will pass him with Vegas and become their first line Centre of the future as 36% 10/28 of his comparables became first line players.

What is Pettersson most likely to become?

Short answer is we will have a much better idea by the end of next season. But some things to consider are players in their draft year that scored at a similar rate in the Allsvenskan. I don't factor in the 98 birthday for Pettersson since he is so undersized anyways. Normally I see the extra year of time is for players to fill out, and dominate physically, but that isn't the case for him. So let's get to it:

Top u18 and u19 (late birthday same draft year) seasons in the Allsvenskan:

 

Elias Pettersson 19G 22A 41 Points in 43 games 0.95 pts per game (2.0 pts per game in the playoffs!!)
William Nylander 15G 12A 27 Points in 35 games 0.77 pts per game (played for 2 teams)

Alexander Wennberg 14G 18A 32 Points in 46 games 0.70 pts per game (late birthday)

David Pastrnak 8 G 16 A 24 Points in 36 games 0.67 pts per game

Jesper Boqvist 3G 9A 12 Points in 19 games 0.63 pts per game

Lucas Wallmark 5G 5A 10 Points in 16 games 0.63 pts per game

Jonathan Dahlen 15G 14A 29 Points in 51 games 0.57 pts per game

Mikhail Zhukov 9G 14A 23 Points in 41 games 0.56 pts per game

Robin Kovacs 17G 11A 28 Points in 52 games 0.54 pts per game

Par Backer 12G 10A 22 Points in 46 games 0.48 pts per game

Filip Forsberg 8G 9A 17 Points in 43 games 0.40 pts per game
Magnus Hedlund 6G 11A 17 Points in 44 games 0.39 pts per game

Elias Pettersson (D-1) 3G 6A 9 Points in 25 games 0.36 pts per game

Jesper Bratt 8G 9A 17 Points in 48 games 0.35 pts per game

Andre Burakovsky 4G 7A 11 Points in 43 games 0.26 pts per game  

What does this mean for NHL Success?

Wennberg is most direct comparison, as both of them were late birthdays in their draft years. In his D+1 season Wennberg put up 21 points in 50 SHL games. Now he is a 60 points player in the NHL.

Nylander had 20 points in 21 games in the SHL for his D+1 and is now also a 60 NHL point player.
Pastrnak had 28 points in 25 games of AHL action in his D+1 and is now a 70 point player in the NHL.
Forsberg had 33 points in 38 games of Allsvenskan action 0.87 points per game (august birthday makes that season closer to Pettersson) in his D+1 and is now a 60 point player in the NHL.

Burakovsky went on to score 1.53 points per game in the OHL in his D+1 year after scoring 0.26 points per game in the Allsvenskan. Think about that for a sec. He's only a 35 point player in the NHL now, yet scored a massive amount in 2014 with Erie playing with McDavid, Connor Brown, Brendan Gaunce, Dylan Strome, and Dane Fox. Elite CHL teams inflate production, and there is much more parody in the SHL and Allsvenskan.

Pastrnak and Nylander are playing at 181 and 190 pounds respectively too.

 

Takeaways if you don't feel like reading the whole thing

 

Glass is going to score a lot next year, but don't over value CHL scoring. It's good to have a great team in the CHL, but it's just as good to be taking the next step and challenging yourself to compete against better competition. By the end of next year Pettersson will probably be closer to NHL ready than Glass in my opinion, but especially if he can put on about 15 pounds by next July. Pettersson might not score a lot in the SHL next year, but that doesn't mean he won't be a first line centre. He's already ahead of almost everyone who has ever been drafted out of the Allsvenskan, and I wouldn't put it past him to have a terrific second half in Sweden and then come over and play a few games in the AHL at the end of the year on a tryout basis.

Glass has some good first line comparables to live up to, but Pettersson is already better than some of his first line comparables in their draft years. 
 

2017-2018 will be an exciting season for prospect fans to follow, and I hope everyone can go into it looking forward to seeing our players develop.

 

Good write up... all about perspective +1

[Derp...]

First off thanks for all the feedback everyone. Much appreciated.

@sonoman the 4 60+ point per season comparables are: Modano, Neely, Ryan Smyth, and Petr Nedved. Although the closest comparable player to him is Brayden Schenn.

@Attila Umbrus Allsvenskan is a good development league. Best of both worlds in my opinion, focused on skill, but still has speed and maturity of the mans game. Not overly physical, but I feel like the only way to really develop that part of the game is to play in the AHL/NHL. Now that I think about it, it's kind of like the NCAA, similar amount of games played and age variance. Also less hitting and no fighting in the NCAA.

@S'all Good Man 1040 was like we know everything! Then realized the more you know, the more you realise you know nothing.

@Boudrias We can't account for all variables in a persons life, but we can look at what is repeatable from one person to another I suppose. I also like the character of these guys. Seem to love the game. 

@Toews I do think the level of Vaxjo as a team will play a part. They are losing a lot of guys, so it will be hard to judge.
Right now these look like some of his teammates for next year:

Peter Andersson (former nucks pick)

Martin Lundberg (coming from AHL)
Viktor Fasth  (former ducks goalie)

Joel Persson (23 coming from D1 league)

Daniel Rahimi (former Nucks pick)

Andrew Calof (Former NCAA player who's been in Sweden for 3 years)

They are losing:

Teemu Laasko -> HIFK
Olli Palola --> Jokerit

Philip Holm --> Canucks/Comets
Dennis Everberg --> Avangard KHL
Calle Rosen --> Leafs
Nick Ballen --> KHL
Joacim Eriksson --> Djugarden (Former Comet)
Emil Pettersson --> Nashville's AHL team (Elias's Brother)
Ville Leino --> 286 NHL games

Josh Hennessy --> 438 AHL games

Obviously things will change, but it seems like more talent out than talent in.
 

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

@Derp...: thanks for doing this! Great job!

 

I hate to be a quibbler though, but one small correction. You have Glass with a 4/20 chance to reach "first line" status. That should really be 4/29, since he has 29 comparables in his cohort, 20 of whom made the NHL, and 4 as first liners.

 

I know, I know. Super nitpicky of me. But just figured it actually makes your point even better if you give odds based on the full cohort, including the 9 statistical matches that didn't pan out as NHLers.

 

Other than that, 100% agree with your analysis and major props for the OP.  

[Adarsh Sant]

Good post.

 

I hope CDC realizes that the SHL and WHL are in fact different leagues.

 

I don't want to hear next year "But look Glass is at 2 points per game and Petersson isn't even a 1!!!!

 

The Sedins didn't even reach 1 point per game in the SHL.  It is a mens league. WHL is a boys league.

[NHL97OneTimer]

6 hours ago, mpt said:

SEL vs WHL, men vs boys.  We'll see how they do, if Pettersson puts up some good numbers we should be very excited

I think it will really come down to how much skill he can put on display with the toughness of the NHL.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

4 hours ago, Toews said:

I am stoked about Peterson but we also have to remember that he has an early birthday so he is older than most people on that scoring list.

True, it's important to try to go "apples to apples" on prospects, especially teenagers for whom a few months can make quite a difference developmentally. That said, when you look at age-adjusted stats (like those in the SEAL numbers), Pettersson still comes out as the best adjusted points/GP player among first time draft eligibles in 2017. Similarly, even after age-adjustment among his Allsvenskan historical peers, Pettersson's numbers remain highly impressive.

[JM_]

4 hours ago, 73 Percent said:

Didn't dahlen sign a contract with us? 

yah but it has a euro clause so he could be in the SHL next year 

[Derp...]

38 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

@Derp...: thanks for doing this! Great job!

 

I hate to be a quibbler though, but one small correction. You have Glass with a 4/20 chance to reach "first line" status. That should really be 4/29, since he has 29 comparables in his cohort, 20 of whom made the NHL, and 4 as first liners.

 

I know, I know. Super nitpicky of me. But just figured it actually makes your point even better if you give odds based on the full cohort, including the 9 statistical matches that didn't pan out as NHLers.

 

Other than that, 100% agree with your analysis and major props for the OP.  

Its a good point for sure. Thats for pin pointing that. I think I only used his majority of successful NHL matches because I'm pretty confident he will be an NHL player. Your right though, there are players that scored at a similar rate to him and ended being depth NHLers. I think the player comparison percentage on those guys is fairly low though compared to Schenn for example.

 

Cheers!

[Hectic]

10 hours ago, Derp... said:

I know there are a lot of people who would have rather had Glass than Pettersson and I think that number is going to grow before Christmas next year. There is a very real possibility that Glass will score a ton of points next year in the WHL playing with Kieffer Bellows. So much so that he could be the most productive player in the WHL similar to Sam Steel this past season.

While this is happening Pettersson will be playing in Vaxjo against bigger, faster, stronger players that will take time for him to adjust too. He will probably have a transition period where he isn't scoring a ton, and is playing second or third line minutes in the SHL.

By christmas Pettersson might be around a half point per game in the SHL, while Glass is around 2 points per game in the WHL. That is going to be a tough pill to swallow for a lot of fans, and rightfully so. Elite scoring centres don't come along every day in the CHL.

What should we take away from the early season then?

The jump that Pettersson is going to make is nearly equivalent to going to the AHL for a North American player at 18-19. He will be learning how to defend and create against players that have many of the small details of the game figured out. This experience is going to be huge for him when he comes over to the AHL/NHL. Personally I think Pettersson has a skill set that is somewhat like a combination of Daniel and Henrik Sedin. He projects to be about the same size as them: 6'2 185-190, and thinks the game at an elite level. While he is learning how to play the pro game and Glass and the Winterhawks are picking on young players and goalies in the WHL we should not just focus on the points.

What is Glass most likely to become?

Looking into comparable seasons, only 4 players with similar numbers and size to Glass have become first line players in the NHL. 4/20 That is a 20% chance of getting a first line Centre, and a 45% 9/20 of him becoming a second line centre. I realize there is totally the chance that he becomes the player everyone expects he could be like, but in reality there is no guarantee with any prospect. I actually think there is a very good chance that Suzuki will pass him with Vegas and become their first line Centre of the future as 36% 10/28 of his comparables became first line players.

What is Pettersson most likely to become?

Short answer is we will have a much better idea by the end of next season. But some things to consider are players in their draft year that scored at a similar rate in the Allsvenskan. I don't factor in the 98 birthday for Pettersson since he is so undersized anyways. Normally I see the extra year of time is for players to fill out, and dominate physically, but that isn't the case for him. So let's get to it:

Top u18 and u19 (late birthday same draft year) seasons in the Allsvenskan:

 

Elias Pettersson 19G 22A 41 Points in 43 games 0.95 pts per game (2.0 pts per game in the playoffs!!)
William Nylander 15G 12A 27 Points in 35 games 0.77 pts per game (played for 2 teams)

Alexander Wennberg 14G 18A 32 Points in 46 games 0.70 pts per game (late birthday)

David Pastrnak 8 G 16 A 24 Points in 36 games 0.67 pts per game

Jesper Boqvist 3G 9A 12 Points in 19 games 0.63 pts per game

Lucas Wallmark 5G 5A 10 Points in 16 games 0.63 pts per game

Jonathan Dahlen 15G 14A 29 Points in 51 games 0.57 pts per game

Mikhail Zhukov 9G 14A 23 Points in 41 games 0.56 pts per game

Robin Kovacs 17G 11A 28 Points in 52 games 0.54 pts per game

Par Backer 12G 10A 22 Points in 46 games 0.48 pts per game

Filip Forsberg 8G 9A 17 Points in 43 games 0.40 pts per game
Magnus Hedlund 6G 11A 17 Points in 44 games 0.39 pts per game

Elias Pettersson (D-1) 3G 6A 9 Points in 25 games 0.36 pts per game

Jesper Bratt 8G 9A 17 Points in 48 games 0.35 pts per game

Andre Burakovsky 4G 7A 11 Points in 43 games 0.26 pts per game  

What does this mean for NHL Success?

Wennberg is most direct comparison, as both of them were late birthdays in their draft years. In his D+1 season Wennberg put up 21 points in 50 SHL games. Now he is a 60 points player in the NHL.

Nylander had 20 points in 21 games in the SHL for his D+1 and is now also a 60 NHL point player.
Pastrnak had 28 points in 25 games of AHL action in his D+1 and is now a 70 point player in the NHL.
Forsberg had 33 points in 38 games of Allsvenskan action 0.87 points per game (august birthday makes that season closer to Pettersson) in his D+1 and is now a 60 point player in the NHL.

Burakovsky went on to score 1.53 points per game in the OHL in his D+1 year after scoring 0.26 points per game in the Allsvenskan. Think about that for a sec. He's only a 35 point player in the NHL now, yet scored a massive amount in 2014 with Erie playing with McDavid, Connor Brown, Brendan Gaunce, Dylan Strome, and Dane Fox. Elite CHL teams inflate production, and there is much more parody in the SHL and Allsvenskan.

Pastrnak and Nylander are playing at 181 and 190 pounds respectively too.

 

Takeaways if you don't feel like reading the whole thing

 

Glass is going to score a lot next year, but don't over value CHL scoring. It's good to have a great team in the CHL, but it's just as good to be taking the next step and challenging yourself to compete against better competition. By the end of next year Pettersson will probably be closer to NHL ready than Glass in my opinion, but especially if he can put on about 15 pounds by next July. Pettersson might not score a lot in the SHL next year, but that doesn't mean he won't be a first line centre. He's already ahead of almost everyone who has ever been drafted out of the Allsvenskan, and I wouldn't put it past him to have a terrific second half in Sweden and then come over and play a few games in the AHL at the end of the year on a tryout basis.

Glass has some good first line comparables to live up to, but Pettersson is already better than some of his first line comparables in their draft years. 
 

2017-2018 will be an exciting season for prospect fans to follow, and I hope everyone can go into it looking forward to seeing our players develop.

 

best post I have read in a while, great read! 

[Hafizzle]

I for one am very glad that JB swung for the fences on this one.  We desperately need an elite centre who can project as a 1C and Pettersson has all the tools to get there.  I liked Glass, largely because of his story and character, but nothing in his game screamed first line centre or elite to me.  I think he's a safe player who can project as a good second line C and there's absolutely nothing wrong with that but Vancouver absolutely needs skill coming through the system so this was the right pick.  

[SamJamIam]

Excellent post. One thing worth noting is the different league's SEAL adjustment for points production. This provides a bit of a shorthand for measuring success of Glass and Pettersson in their D+1 years. 

 

Taking the CHL as a base (the 3 leagues are roughly the same when it comes to ease of scoring), Allsvenskan is typically twice as difficult to score in. A bit harder than the NCAA though about half as difficult as the SHL. This explains why Filip Forsberg at .40ppg in Allsvenskan was an interesting prospect (though not a slam dunk) and why Nylander's .25ppg scoring in the SHL was so highly valued.  Elias' near ppg pace is truly eyepopping in both contexts.

 

Next year, Glass will basically have to outscore Pettersson by 4x to match his expected NHL production.  I would certainly take a bet that won't happen.

[Derp...]

15 minutes ago, SamJamIam said:

Excellent post. One thing worth noting is the different league's SEAL adjustment for points production. This provides a bit of a shorthand for measuring success of Glass and Pettersson in their D+1 years. 

 

Taking the CHL as a base (the 3 leagues are roughly the same when it comes to ease of scoring), Allsvenskan is typically twice as difficult to score in. A bit harder than the NCAA though about half as difficult as the SHL. This explains why Filip Forsberg at .40ppg in Allsvenskan was an interesting prospect (though not a slam dunk) and why Nylander's .25ppg scoring in the SHL was so highly valued.  Elias' near ppg pace is truly eyepopping in both contexts.

 

Next year, Glass will basically have to outscore Pettersson by 4x to match his expected NHL production.  I would certainly take a bet that won't happen.

This is very interesting. So what your saying is Petterssons production this year was equal to roughly 0.5 points per game in the SHL and closer to 2 points per game in the CHL.

 

With that as a basis for next year we could say that if Pettersson scores at a better rate than 0.5 pts per game he has improved compared to the year prior and also jumped up a league. In comparison Glass would have to score around 2 points per game this year just to match where Pettersson is right now?

 

Maybe I'm being too simple minded but it gives some good context. 

 

Cheers!

[DownUndaCanuck]

At first I wasn't happy with the pick but Benning has to take risks in this rebuild. He knows what he needs - a top line offensive center, a top puck moving defenceman and some gritty depth wingers. He scored some nice wingers (Gadjovich and Lind) who have good size and play a gritty game, and has Virtanen in the wings. That's one big tick. He's still missing that elusive star defenceman. But he's gone out on a limb to draft Pettersson when not many other teams would have taken him (probably due to size) so highly. For me, it's an all-in type of move. JB isn't as reckless as say Bergevin, but he makes a lot of gutsy moves and this is one of them. It might pay off in a big way and bring us a 70-90 point skilled playmaking center. It might back-fire in a massive way if he gets thrown off the puck too easily and never hits 40-50 points.

 

JB certainly could have picked Glass or Vilardi or Mittelstatd who look like a safe bet for a good two-way 40-60ish point center. I would have been happy with say Vilardi or Glass and Horvat down the middle going forward, but JB clearly wants a bit more skill, and it doesn't look like it's coming from anywhere else (trades, 2018/2019 drafts) so fair enough to go for Pettersson. He's essentially replacing the Sedins with Dahlen and Pettersson and that's not such a bad idea considering how many good wingers we have now too to complement the two Swedes.

 

Virtanen was a risky pick that has backfired so far (but may right itself eventually) and Pettersson sure is a risky top pick too so let's just see what happens, but on the whole I'm happy with this pick because there really wasn't any consensus, and I like to think that the Canucks overseas scouts, particularly in Sweden, are some of the best in the league. Put Pettersson into just about any other team and I think he'd struggle, but he's going into an organization that has groomed Swedes well, into a place where half of the leaders are Swedish, where he's got a natural linemate already and where he can learn from the two most similar Swedish players in the game to him. Henrik and Daniel are the perfect mentors for Dahlen and Pettersson and I think that impact will make them both stars.

[Ronaldoescobar]

Absolutely excellent post OP and wish there was one for OJ as well.

 

Unfortunately a lot of posters are going to come on here when Glass plays his first shift in preseason and label our pick as a bust and JB as the worst GM ever at drafting (similar to Juolevi/MT)

[SamJamIam]

On 25/06/2017 at 3:41 PM, Derp... said:

This is very interesting. So what your saying is Petterssons production this year was equal to roughly 0.5 points per game in the SHL and closer to 2 points per game in the CHL.

 

With that as a basis for next year we could say that if Pettersson scores at a better rate than 0.5 pts per game he has improved compared to the year prior and also jumped up a league. In comparison Glass would have to score around 2 points per game this year just to match where Pettersson is right now?

 

Maybe I'm being too simple minded but it gives some good context. 

 

Cheers!

Yup, that is the rough conversion.  The thing is, if Petterson only posts .3 ppg in the SHL, then Glass only has to put up 1.2 ppg in the OHL.  However since that is the rate Nylander scored at in the SHL in his draft year.  That same year he only scored at .5ppg in Allsvenskan so I suspect Petterson can outdo that by some margin.

[SamJamIam]

On 25/06/2017 at 9:55 PM, DownUndaCanuck said:

Virtanen was a risky pick that has backfired so far (but may right itself eventually) and Pettersson sure is a risky top pick too so let's just see what happens, but on the whole I'm happy with this pick because there really wasn't any consensus, and I like to think that the Canucks overseas scouts, particularly in Sweden, are some of the best in the league. Put Pettersson into just about any other team and I think he'd struggle, but he's going into an organization that has groomed Swedes well, into a place where half of the leaders are Swedish, where he's got a natural linemate already and where he can learn from the two most similar Swedish players in the game to him. Henrik and Daniel are the perfect mentors for Dahlen and Pettersson and I think that impact will make them both stars.

You mean the consensus #6?  Behind consensus #5 Michael Dal Colle?  Scouts are fallible.  Let's not rewrite history here.  Picking Nylander or Ehlers before Jake would have been the risky pick on draft day.  Not the other way around;.

[AK_19]

On 6/25/2017 at 10:55 PM, DownUndaCanuck said:

At first I wasn't happy with the pick but Benning has to take risks in this rebuild. He knows what he needs - a top line offensive center, a top puck moving defenceman and some gritty depth wingers. He scored some nice wingers (Gadjovich and Lind) who have good size and play a gritty game, and has Virtanen in the wings. That's one big tick. He's still missing that elusive star defenceman. But he's gone out on a limb to draft Pettersson when not many other teams would have taken him (probably due to size) so highly. For me, it's an all-in type of move. JB isn't as reckless as say Bergevin, but he makes a lot of gutsy moves and this is one of them. It might pay off in a big way and bring us a 70-90 point skilled playmaking center. It might back-fire in a massive way if he gets thrown off the puck too easily and never hits 40-50 points.

 

JB certainly could have picked Glass or Vilardi or Mittelstatd who look like a safe bet for a good two-way 40-60ish point center. I would have been happy with say Vilardi or Glass and Horvat down the middle going forward, but JB clearly wants a bit more skill, and it doesn't look like it's coming from anywhere else (trades, 2018/2019 drafts) so fair enough to go for Pettersson. He's essentially replacing the Sedins with Dahlen and Pettersson and that's not such a bad idea considering how many good wingers we have now too to complement the two Swedes.

 

Virtanen was a risky pick that has backfired so far (but may right itself eventually) and Pettersson sure is a risky top pick too so let's just see what happens, but on the whole I'm happy with this pick because there really wasn't any consensus, and I like to think that the Canucks overseas scouts, particularly in Sweden, are some of the best in the league. Put Pettersson into just about any other team and I think he'd struggle, but he's going into an organization that has groomed Swedes well, into a place where half of the leaders are Swedish, where he's got a natural linemate already and where he can learn from the two most similar Swedish players in the game to him. Henrik and Daniel are the perfect mentors for Dahlen and Pettersson and I think that impact will make them both stars.

As much as I disliked the pick even at the time, he was touted as having the highest floor of the Ehlers/Virtanen/Fleury/Nylander/Ritchie group. 

[Diamonds]

17 hours ago, SamJamIam said:

You mean the consensus #6?  Behind consensus #5 Michael Dal Colle?  Scouts are fallible.  Let's not rewrite history here.  Picking Nylander or Ehlers before Jake would have been the risky pick on draft day.  Not the other way around;.

Virtanen was not the consensus #6. Talk about rewriting history...

There were some rankings that had him at 6, and he was not a reach, but he was actually consensus #13 (see: http://www.mynhldraft.com/2014-nhl-draft-prospect-consensus-rankings/ which granted includes Craig Button's ranking at #40 which if removed becomes closer to consensus #10).

 

I do agree that he was a low risk pick though. Definitely considered to have a higher floor than Ehlers and Nylander (and even Ritchie if I recall).

 

Edit: Should probably add that I like taking the higher risk option in Pettersson. The Canucks have played it safe in a lot of drafts, it's time to attempt the home run.