Optimism and a First for the Canucks Org

[Warhippy]

I want to open this by saying, it might be a bit of a longer read so bear with me, I'll add a gratuity TLDR at the end of it.  I will try to not speak over much about the GM Linden or the coaching at all.  

 

I am pushing 40 now, my first Canucks game was in 1984, have a photo of me on the shoulders of Smyl and Sundstrom.  Safe to say I've been a fan since day 1.  Been a fan through the bad 80's, the good and terrible 90's and the heartbreak of the WCE never having a true 2nd line or goalie to back them up.  I watched the towel phenomenon begin and watched the green men the over the leagues character quota.

 

For every rise this team had; we had either a slow slide in to mediocrity, or a rapid descent in to suckage.  Then of course the inevitable rise again.

 

The one single common factor in 40 years is that we never had the skill or depth to overcome.  In the 80's we couldn't compete with Potvin and Gretzky.  The 90's we couldn't overcome Messier (twice) in the WCE era after the Naslund Bertuzzi duo we had nobody because the twins weren't ready.  In 2011....well after Kesler got hurt and the twins got shut down...

 

So that brings us to today.  The draft is finished, as usual people are angry or underwhelmed.  They do not see our team in 5 years they see right now alone.  Much like 40+ years of management saw.  Only the right now

 

So here's where this post is going.  We're actually doing something different for the first time ever.  We're building depth, we're developing players in a way this team never did.  Any admitted hockey fan can see tthis team as; if incredibly lucky 2 years from true playoff contention and 4 to 5 from regular contention.  When Benning took over, he was doing it on the heels of arguably our best draft in almost a decade.  People got angry when he traded picks/prospects to bridge the proverbial gap over the next 2 seasons.  I am/was one of them.

 

But it's worked out.  The gap is filled.  Since then we've done pretty well in my opinion and have reason to be optimistic IF we can look to that 3-4 year timeline.  Here comes the meat of the post.

 

2013:  Horvat, Cassels, Subban, Cederholm*

2014:  Virtanen, Demko, Tryamkin

2015:  Boeser, Brisebois, Zhukenov, Neill, Gaudette

2016:  Juolevi, Lockwood, Candella, Abols

2017:  Petterson, Lind, Gadjovich, Dipietro

 

Ok, so these are three to 4 guys per draft that by all accounts could/should make it.  Horvat is in the dance, Subban is showing he's a solid AHL defenceman and we're still waiting.  Cederholm might make a return this year to NA ice.  We also have the hulking Tryamkin who we saw good things from in such a young prospect that is a question mark.  Now again, by all accounts all of these guys are our projected NHL/AHL future as it is.

 

We have in my opinion the 18, 19 and 20 draft as well in which we should be drafting top 10 as well.  So let's say we project another 3 kids from each draft that could be NHl/AHL players (ballparking it) and go from there.

 

Nobody knows what these kids will do, I am simply using not only this, but other forums' and analysts projections and probable futures for these kids currently in our system.  But after almost 40 years of watching the Canucks do the exact same thing.  Come close, blow it up.  Then pull the trigger early and end up in mediocrity; we are seeing a stockpiling of kids we can be excited about.  We are seeing a stockpiling of depth that is currently under development that we've never seen in this organization before.

 

Nobody knows whether or not these kids will all pan out or if Benning will have a job in 3-5 years to enjoy it.  But it doesn't matter.  We're seeing something to be very optomistic about.

 

Here is what I see.  This coming season Boeser is making the team with Subban getting more call ups and Pedan spending some time on the team.  Gaunce taking a step forward as well.  The entrance of 2-3 more prospects in to the AHL.  Next year we will see 1-2 more kids coming to the NHL full time and 3-4 more in to Utica and so on and so forth.

 

Within 4-5 years we'll see everyone from 2013 through this years draft either in the AHL or NHL or not having made it.  But by then we'll have added another 12-15 solid prospects we can see having the potential to make it.  Maybe more maybe less.

 

This whole post is about where we are heading, Green is taking over.  Another new coach with a very similar roster to the last 2 years meaning we're still going to be bad.  It's inevitable.  So be it.  But it's hard to not be excited to know we're finally as an organization doing the things that make clubs successful.  And not just in the short term but in the long term.  Skill. Depth.  Development.

 

It's something we can truly be optomistic about in the coming years no matter how bleak it looks.

 

Please feel free to add, because I didn't add on trades, undrafted signees or the like and I don't do these touchy feely hug me for attention posts ever.

 

TLDR:  We're bad now, we're going to be bad until 2020/2021 but we have 12-16 prospects to be excited about in the system and 12-16 more in the coming 4-5 years worth of drafts that are being properly devloped and brought in slowly for the first time in club history.  Be excited B-E Excited

 

Bored at work....easy to tell.

 

 

[48MPHSlapShot]

2017-18: As bad or worse than last season. Another lottery pick= No 1 Dman?

2018-19: Still bad, but showing marked improvement. Top ten pick.

2019-20: Bubble team. 15th-20th in the league.

2020-21: Yay! We're good again! Playoffs baby!

2021-22: CUP OR BUST.

 

Seems like a feasible timeline to me.

[189lb enforcers?]

 

Rebuild synopsis/timelines, nailed. Good one, Captain. 

 

 

[Ghostsof1915]

I think the team will improve.

Historically, teams with new coaches improve. (Desjardins in year one) But we have had first year coaches bomb. (Columbus' coach of the year, thanks for the second round pick though!)

We have a rather large influx of young talent. There should be less reliance on the Sedins. Boeser, Horvat, a healthy Gudbranson and Sutter. Hutton and Stetcher should  take another step to improve. Boucher, Goldobin, Dahlen. Wildcards like Baer, Eriksson, Granlund, Juolevi, Dorsett. 

 

We are one step from getting worse, and that's the Sedin's hanging them up next year. I don't trust luck giving us a first overall. 

 

Next year I think we bottom out. Then we start the long climb up. 

 

But the better the foundation, the quicker the team goes back up. Best to have a wait and see approach. 

[CanadianRugby]

IMO the first few years under Benning have been such a disaster that it's hard for me to get excited even though he's finally at least keeping all his draft picks.  There are other young teams with MORE and BETTER prospects so I don't see what the optimism is all about.  Unless a bunch of our prospects overachieve and this becomes a solid top-to-bottom team, what chance do these Canucks have against teams like Edmonton and Toronto in the future?  

 

I'll get on the optimism bandwagon if Benning goes into next years draft with another top 5 pick and at least 5 picks in the first 3 rounds for a couple of years like the Penguins, Hawks, Leafs.. etc have done. 

 

Until then I say what I said when Benning was hired, he's aiming for the middle.  Eventually youngsters will enter their prime and this team will be better but not legit contenders.  

[canuckpuckluck1]

A couple of other things to consider, the Canucks have a legit farm team that they control which helps in the development of the prospects and they now have plenty of cap to work with. This year and next will see JB have cash to buy pretty much whatever the team needs. I personally would be happy for him to sit on the cash for this season and possibly next. Then go full tilt on anyone in the younger (under 28 years) range at Forward or defence.

Hippy im with you in regards to the optimism. I am pretty excited about the future and made a post last week about enjoying the ride, it's going to be fun

[Warhippy]

8 minutes ago, 48MPHSlapShot said:

2017-18: As bad or worse than last season. Another lottery pick= No 1 Dman?

2018-19: Still bad, but showing marked improvement. Top ten pick.

2019-20: Bubble team. 15th-20th in the league.

2020-21: Yay! We're good again! Playoffs baby!

2021-22: CUP OR BUST.

 

Seems like a feasible timeline to me.

17/18 dahlin 

18/19 top 5

19/20 top 10

20/21 Philly our way into 2nd overall

21/22 cup

[Ghostsof1915]

12 minutes ago, CanadianRugby said:

IMO the first few years under Benning have been such a disaster that it's hard for me to get excited even though he's finally at least keeping all his draft picks.  There are other young teams with MORE and BETTER prospects so I don't see what the optimism is all about.  Unless a bunch of our prospects overachieve and this becomes a solid top-to-bottom team, what chance do these Canucks have against teams like Edmonton and Toronto in the future?  

 

I'll get on the optimism bandwagon if Benning goes into next years draft with another top 5 pick and at least 5 picks in the first 3 rounds for a couple of years like the Penguins, Hawks, Leafs.. etc have done. 

 

Until then I say what I said when Benning was hired, he's aiming for the middle.  Eventually youngsters will enter their prime and this team will be better but not legit contenders.  

Were you around in the Messier/Keenan era? THAT was a disaster. 

[King Heffy]

12 minutes ago, CanadianRugby said:

IMO the first few years under Benning have been such a disaster that it's hard for me to get excited even though he's finally at least keeping all his draft picks.  There are other young teams with MORE and BETTER prospects so I don't see what the optimism is all about.  Unless a bunch of our prospects overachieve and this becomes a solid top-to-bottom team, what chance do these Canucks have against teams like Edmonton and Toronto in the future?  

 

I'll get on the optimism bandwagon if Benning goes into next years draft with another top 5 pick and at least 5 picks in the first 3 rounds for a couple of years like the Penguins, Hawks, Leafs.. etc have done. 

 

Until then I say what I said when Benning was hired, he's aiming for the middle.  Eventually youngsters will enter their prime and this team will be better but not legit contenders.  

Oilers and Leafs are done their rebuilds.  We'll have premium draft picks for a couple more years. 

[CanadianRugby]

7 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

Were you around in the Messier/Keenan era? THAT was a disaster. 

Messier & Benning are my most hated Canucks of all time.  

 

Keenan traded Linden for:

Bertuzzi

McCabe (turned into Sedin)

3rd round pick (Jarkko Ruutu, my all time 2nd fav Canuck)

 

So I have no hate for Keenan just because of this.

7 minutes ago, King Heffy said:

Oilers and Leafs are done their rebuilds.  We'll have premium draft picks for a couple more years. 

Premium top pick, most likely.  Will we have multiple picks in the top 3 rounds?  If we don't it's a fail.  

[Nuxfanabroad]

It's difficult to argue these youth-phase/projection posts. You always end up dealing in hypotheticals. But for sake of conversation, you might contrast 'what-if' scenarios. For example:

 

- What if a vet like Kesler stayed? Would a guy like that help lead our youth at all? Highly doubtful. Say, the twins had wanted out instead ? Would we have ever received a fair return, with this league's old boy's club? Maybe our Kes-return winds up as a 'meh'..can't really say, quite yet. But it really got the wheels turning, to facelift the roster. That can't really be debated.

 

- What if we traded Lu first?..Wouldn't have Bo today. For a few yrs it seemed all haters/revisionists wanted to change how we dealt with the tender-issue. I'd say it worked out pretty nicely. Probably created our future leader. Then Millsy performed admirably, & we've got 3 or 4 good young guys(Markstrom included), looking like a solid succession.

 

- What if Burr's penalty burned us, & Sharp scored in 2011? His name would have been slagged quite a bit. That team would've been scorched, vilified & dismantled. Where would this team be now?

 

...I point to these examples to suggest we've been rather lucky as fans. Since about the turn of the Millen, Van's had pretty exciting teams, with some dynamic personalities(& compelling life stories). Now we get to watch a new cast of kids, virtually arrive together. For the most part, these kids seem hard-working, gifted & humble.

 

With this foundation they're laying, I'm excited to see what they can ultimately design over the next 3~5 years. Colour me optimistic.

[Honky Cat]

31 minutes ago, CanadianRugby said:

IMO the first few years under Benning have been such a disaster that it's hard for me to get excited even though he's finally at least keeping all his draft picks.  There are other young teams with MORE and BETTER prospects so I don't see what the optimism is all about.  Unless a bunch of our prospects overachieve and this becomes a solid top-to-bottom team, what chance do these Canucks have against teams like Edmonton and Toronto in the future?  

 

I'll get on the optimism bandwagon if Benning goes into next years draft with another top 5 pick and at least 5 picks in the first 3 rounds for a couple of years like the Penguins, Hawks, Leafs.. etc have done. 

 

Until then I say what I said when Benning was hired, he's aiming for the middle.  Eventually youngsters will enter their prime and this team will be better but not legit contenders.  

What if Edmonton didn't get McDavid (they finished 27th,and dumb luck would have them winning the lottery,and a generational talent)..?.....We came in 27th place in 2016..what if we had lucked out and got Matthews..?....Matthews/Horvat/Sedin or McDavid/Horvat/Sedin....

 

Without these players I don't see the Leafs or Oilers in the  playoffs last season....Both teams had the ping balls go their way.

[bigbadcanucks]

Nice post, 'hipster.

 

Here's my take...though it's great to see the quantity of promising prospects that are being accumulated, it will be another 2-3 years before we can state with any sort of confidence that the depth that you speak about actually exists.  The fact that there is now a list of quality prospects to be excited about is progress and is a first step towards building that organizational depth that has eluded the Canucks throughout its history as you mention.  But at this point in time, it's nothing more than promise (and hope) that is being offered up.

 

I'm optimistic about the future, but IMO, it's going to be an uphill battle for the Canucks over the next 10-15 years with McDavid and Draisatl (resembling the Gretzky-Messier one-two punch) being the single biggest obstacle.   I believe the brand of hockey that we as fans get to witness will improve, so that's also a step in the right direction.

 

Maybe, just maybe, Pettersen/Dahlen will be able to carry on the Sedinery that we have been able to witness over the past decade or so in 2-3 years time.

[Derp...]

Good thoughts!

 

We have the forward prospects and goaltending to be a similar team to Nashville. We just need a couple more D men.

 

Nice to see some patience starting to pay off. I have a feeling ticket sales will get a big bump in 2018-2019. Maybe Sedins final year and we will be a solid young team looking to take a step.

[CanadianRugby]

6 minutes ago, Honky Cat said:

What if Edmonton didn't get McDavid (they finished 27th,and dumb luck would have them winning the lottery,and a generational talent)..?.....We came in 27th place in 2016..what if we had lucked out and got Matthews..?....Matthews/Horvat/Sedin or McDavid/Horvat/Sedin....

 

Without these players I don't see the Leafs or Oilers in the  playoffs last season....Both teams had the ping balls go their way.

The rules are different since Edmonton got all their top players, and Leafs were dead last and had the highest % to get Matthews.  

 

What if Benning tanked to get Matthews & McDavid by trading good players away and loading up on other picks?  We'd be set, but he didn't.  "What if's" don't matter.  You can't control the draft lottery or what happened in the past, all you can control is how many draft picks you have in the future and who you draft with them.  

[48MPHSlapShot]

1 minute ago, CanadianRugby said:

The rules are different since Edmonton got all their top players, and Leafs were dead last and had the highest % to get Matthews.  

 

What if Benning tanked to get Matthews & McDavid by trading good players away and loading up on other picks?  We'd be set, but he didn't.  "What if's" don't matter.  You can't control the draft lottery or what happened in the past, all you can control is how many draft picks you have in the future and who you draft with them.  

Then we still wouldn't have gotten McDavid, considering that he didn't end up going to the last place team...

[CanadianRugby]

1 minute ago, 48MPHSlapShot said:

Then we still wouldn't have gotten McDavid, considering that he didn't end up going to the last place team...

True, but that just means a half-assed tank job would have been enough.  

[48MPHSlapShot]

Just now, CanadianRugby said:

True, but that just means a half-assed tank job would have been enough.  

You could literally say the same thing for every other non-playoff team in the league.

 

The fact of the matter is that EDM fluked their way to McDavid.

[CanadianRugby]

Just now, 48MPHSlapShot said:

You could literally say the same thing for every other non-playoff team in the league.

 

The fact of the matter is that EDM fluked their way to McDavid.

Yeah, every team flukes their way to the #1 pick.  It's how it works now, you can improve your chances the best you can but odds are still against you.

[logic]

The new rules are good, tanking should not be a legitimate strategy.

 

CanadianRugby is just a Benning hater... If we pull a Winnipeg and fluke out on Laine then our future looks a lot different, same thing this year coming out with Patrick/Hischier would have our franchise looking a lot different. In the next 2 years we should get at least one top 3 pick.

Like Burke Benning will be gone before the fruits of his labourer ripen. 

People can say what they want about Benning but we have the best prospect pool our franchise has ever had.